Predicting indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination programs on rotavirus mortality among children in 112 countries.

ABSTRACT: Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhea deaths in children, particularly in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs). Licensed rotavirus vaccines provide strong direct protection, but their indirect effect-the protection due to reduced transmission-is not fully understood. We aimed to quantify the population-level effects of rotavirus vaccination and identify factors that drive indirect protection. We used an SIR-like transmission model to estimate the indirect effects of vaccination on rotavirus deaths in 112 LMICs. We performed a regression analysis to identify predictors of indirect effect magnitude (linear regression) and the occurrence of negative indirect effects (logistic regression). Indirect effects contributed to vaccine impacts in all regions, with effect sizes 8-years post-vacci

SUBMITTER: Kraay ANM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9985632 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature