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Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

ABSTRACT: Most severe disasters cause large population movements. These movements make it difficult for relief organizations to efficiently reach people in need. Understanding and predicting the locations of affected people during disasters is key to effective humanitarian relief operations and to long-term societal reconstruction. We collaborated with the largest mobile phone operator in Haiti (Digicel) and analyzed the movements of 1.9 million mobile phone users during the period from 42 d before, to 341 d after the devastating Haiti earthquake of January 12, 2010. Nineteen days after the earthquake, population movements had caused the population of the capital Port-au-Prince to decrease by an estimated 23%. Both the travel distances and size of people's movement trajectories grew after the earthquake. These findings, in combination with the disorder that was present after the disaster, suggest that people's movements would have become less predictable. Instead, the predictability of people's trajectories remained high and even increased slightly during the three-month period after the earthquake. Moreover, the destinations of people who left the capital during the first three weeks after the earthquake was highly correlated with their mobility patterns during normal times, and specifically with the locations in which people had significant social bonds. For the people who left Port-au-Prince, the duration of their stay outside the city, as well as the time for their return, all followed a skewed, fat-tailed distribution. The findings suggest that population movements during disasters may be significantly more predictable than previously thought.

SUBMITTER: Lu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3406871 | biostudies-other | 2012 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

Lu Xin X Bengtsson Linus L Holme Petter P

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20120618 29

Most severe disasters cause large population movements. These movements make it difficult for relief organizations to efficiently reach people in need. Understanding and predicting the locations of affected people during disasters is key to effective humanitarian relief operations and to long-term societal reconstruction. We collaborated with the largest mobile phone operator in Haiti (Digicel) and analyzed the movements of 1.9 million mobile phone users during the period from 42 d before, to 34 ...[more]

PMID: 22711804

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Project description:BackgroundRecent commentary on the health consequences of natural disasters has suggested a dearth of research on understanding the antecedents prior to the disaster that are associated with health consequences after the disaster. Utilizing data from a two-wave panel survey of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, conducted just prior to and six weeks after the January 2010 earthquake, we test factors prior to the quake hypothesized to be associated with food insecurity after the quake.MethodsUsing random Global Positioning System (GPS) sampling, we re-interviewed 93.1% (N = 1732) of the original 1,800 households interviewed in 2009. Respondents were queried with regard to mortalities, injuries, food security, housing, and other factors after the quake.FindingsChild food insecurity was found to be common on all three indices of food security (17.2%-22.6%). Additionally, only 36.5% of school-aged children were attending school prior to the quake. Findings suggest that prior schooling was associated with a substantial reduction on food insecurity indices (OR 0.62-0.75). Findings further suggest that several household characteristics were associated with food insecurity for children. Prior chronic/acute illnesses, poor living conditions, remittances from abroad, primary respondent mental health, and histories of criminal and other human rights violations committed against family members prior to the quake were associated with food insecurity after the earthquake. Earned household income after the quake was only associated with one of the measures of food insecurity.InterpretationFood insecurity for children was common after the quake. Those households vulnerable on multiple dimensions prior to the quake were also vulnerable to food insecurity after the quake. Remittances from abroad were leading protective factors for food security. Because Haiti is well known for the potentiality of both hurricanes and earthquakes, reconstruction and redevelopment should focus on ameliorating potential vulnerabilities to poor outcomes in these natural disasters.

Dataset Information

Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

Publications

Predictability of population displacement after the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

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