Model for assessing human papillomavirus vaccination strategies.
ABSTRACT: We present a transmission dynamic model that can assess the epidemiologic consequences and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies of administering a prophylactic quadrivalent (types 6/11/16/18) human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in a setting of organized cervical cancer screening in the United States. Compared with current practice, vaccinating girls before the age of 12 years would reduce the incidence of genital warts (83%) and cervical cancer (78%) due to HPV 6/11/16/18. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of augmenting this strategy with a temporary catch-up program for 12- to 24-year-olds was US $4,666 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Relative to other commonly accepted healthcare programs, vaccinating girls and women appears cost-effective. Including men and boys in the program was the most effective strategy, reducing the incidence of genital warts, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and cervical cancer by 97%, 91%, and 91%, respectively. The ICER of this strategy was $45,056 per QALY.
Project description:UNLABELLED: INTRODUCTION: Persistent infections with human papillomavirus (HPV) are a necessary cause of cervical cancer and are responsible for important morbidity in men and women. Since 2007, HPV vaccination has been recommended and funded for all girls aged 12 to 17 in Germany. A previously published cost-effectiveness analysis, using a static model, showed that a quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme for 12-year-old girls in Germany would be cost effective. Here we present the results from a dynamic transmission model that can be used to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of different vaccination schemas. METHODS: We adapted a HPV dynamic transmission model, which has been used in other countries, to the German context. The model was used to compare a cervical cancer screening only strategy with a strategy of combining vaccination of females aged 12-17 years old and cervical cancer screening, based on the current recommendations in Germany. In addition, the impact of increasing vaccination coverage in this cohort of females aged 12-17 years old was evaluated in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The results from this analysis show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination programme of females ages 12 to 17 in Germany is cost-effective with an ICER of 5,525€/QALY (quality adjusted life year). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) increased to 10,293€/QALY when the vaccine effects on HPV6/11 diseases were excluded. At steady state, the model predicted that vaccinating girls aged 12 to 17 could reduce the number of HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancers by 65% and genital warts among women and men by 70% and 48%, respectively. The impact on HPV-related disease incidence and costs avoided would occur relatively soon after initiating the vaccine programme, with much of the early impact being due to the prevention of HPV6/11-related genital warts. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that the current quadrivalent HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening programmes in Germany will substantially reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and genital warts. The evaluated vaccination strategies were all found to be cost-effective. Future analyses should include more HPV-related diseases.
Project description:BACKGROUND: Infection with HPV 16 and 18, the major causative agents of cervical cancer, can be prevented through vaccination with a bivalent or quadrivalent vaccine. Both vaccines provide cross-protection against HPV-types not included in the vaccines. In particular, the bivalent vaccine provides additional protection against HPV 31, 33, and 45 and the quadrivalent vaccine against HPV31. The quadrivalent vaccine additionally protects against low-risk HPV type 6 and 11, responsible for most cases of genital warts. In this study, we made an analytical comparison of the two vaccines in terms of cost-effectiveness including the additional benefits of cross-protection and protection against genital warts in comparison with a screening-only strategy. METHODS: We used a Markov model, simulating the progression from HPV infection to cervical cancer or genital warts. The model was used to estimate the difference in future costs and health effects of both HPV-vaccines separately. RESULTS: In a cohort of 100,000 women, use of the bivalent or quadrivalent vaccine (both at 50% vaccination coverage) reduces the cervical cancer incidence by 221 and 207 cases, corresponding to ICERs of €17,600/QALY and €18,900/QALY, respectively. It was estimated that the quadrivalent vaccine additionally prevents 4390 cases of genital warts, reducing the ICER to €16,300/QALY. Assuming a comparable willingness to pay for cancer and genital warts prevention, the difference in ICERs could justify a slightly higher price (~7% per dose) in favor of the quadrivalent vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Clearly, HPV vaccination has been implemented for the prevention of cervical cancer. From this perspective, use of the bivalent HPV vaccine appears to be most effective and cost-effective. Including the benefits of prevention against genital warts, the ICER of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine was found to be slightly more favourable. However, current decision-making on the introduction of HPV is driven by the primary cervical cancer outcome. New vaccine tenders could consider the benefits of cross-protection and the benefits of genital warts, which requires more balanced decision-making.
Project description:The cost-effectiveness of prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus types 16 (HPV-16) and 18 (HPV-18) is an important consideration for guidelines for immunization in the United States.We synthesized epidemiologic and demographic data using models of HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to compare the health and economic outcomes of vaccinating preadolescent girls (at 12 years of age) and vaccinating older girls and women in catch-up programs (to 18, 21, or 26 years of age). We examined the health benefits of averting other HPV-16-related and HPV-18-related cancers, the prevention of HPV-6-related and HPV-11-related genital warts and juvenile-onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis by means of the quadrivalent vaccine, the duration of immunity, and future screening practices.On the assumption that the vaccine provided lifelong immunity, the cost-effectiveness ratio of vaccination of 12-year-old girls was $43,600 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, as compared with the current screening practice. Under baseline assumptions, the cost-effectiveness ratio for extending a temporary catch-up program for girls to 18 years of age was $97,300 per QALY; the cost of extending vaccination of girls and women to the age of 21 years was $120,400 per QALY, and the cost for extension to the age of 26 years was $152,700 per QALY. The results were sensitive to the duration of vaccine-induced immunity; if immunity waned after 10 years, the cost of vaccination of preadolescent girls exceeded $140,000 per QALY, and catch-up strategies were less cost-effective than screening alone. The cost-effectiveness ratios for vaccination strategies were more favorable if the benefits of averting other health conditions were included or if screening was delayed and performed at less frequent intervals and with more sensitive tests; they were less favorable if vaccinated girls were preferentially screened more frequently in adulthood.The cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination will depend on the duration of vaccine immunity and will be optimized by achieving high coverage in preadolescent girls, targeting initial catch-up efforts to women up to 18 or 21 years of age, and revising screening policies.
Project description:Increasingly, countries have introduced female vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), causally linked to several cancers and genital warts, but few have recommended vaccination of boys. Declining vaccine prices and strong evidence of vaccine impact on reducing HPV-related conditions in both women and men prompt countries to reevaluate whether HPV vaccination of boys is warranted.A previously-published dynamic model of HPV transmission was empirically calibrated to Norway. Reductions in the incidence of HPV, including both direct and indirect benefits, were applied to a natural history model of cervical cancer, and to incidence-based models for other non-cervical HPV-related diseases. We calculated the health outcomes and costs of the different HPV-related conditions under a gender-neutral vaccination program compared to a female-only program.Vaccine price had a decisive impact on results. For example, assuming 71% coverage, high vaccine efficacy and a reasonable vaccine tender price of $75 per dose, we found vaccinating both girls and boys fell below a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway ($83,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained) when including vaccine benefit for all HPV-related diseases. However, at the current market price, including boys would not be considered 'good value for money.' For settings with a lower cost-effectiveness threshold ($30,000/QALY), it would not be considered cost-effective to expand the current program to include boys, unless the vaccine price was less than $36/dose. Increasing vaccination coverage to 90% among girls was more effective and less costly than the benefits achieved by vaccinating both genders with 71% coverage.At the anticipated tender price, expanding the HPV vaccination program to boys may be cost-effective and may warrant a change in the current female-only vaccination policy in Norway. However, increasing coverage in girls is uniformly more effective and cost-effective than expanding vaccination coverage to boys and should be considered a priority.
Project description:BACKGROUND: This analysis assessed the epidemiological and economic impact of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV4: 6/11/16/18) vaccination in Estonia. METHODS: A dynamic transmission model was used to assess the epidemiological and economic impact of the routine vaccination of 12-year-old girls with a HPV4 vaccine in preventing cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grades 1, 2 and 3 and genital warts. RESULTS: The model projected that at year 100, HPV4 vaccination would lead to a reduction of HPV 16/18 related cervical cancer incidence and deaths by over 97% and the incidence of HPV 6/11 related genital warts among Estonian women and men by over 94% and 81%, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HPV4 vaccination strategy was € 4,889 per QALY gained over a time horizon of 100 years. CONCLUSIONS: Routine vaccination of 12-year-old girls with HPV4 vaccine appears to be cost-effective in Estonia, in addition to providing both short term and long term health gains.
Project description:Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, usually a sexually transmitted disease, is a risk factor for cervical cancer. Given the substantial disease and death associated with HPV and cervical cancer, development of a prophylactic HPV vaccine is a public health priority. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating adolescent girls for high-risk HPV infections relative to current practice. A vaccine with a 75% probability of immunity against high-risk HPV infection resulted in a life-expectancy gain of 2.8 days or 4.0 quality-adjusted life days at a cost of $246 relative to current practice (incremental cost effectiveness of $22,755/quality-adjusted life year [QALY]). If all 12-year-old girls currently living in the United States were vaccinated, >1,300 deaths from cervical cancer would be averted during their lifetimes. Vaccination of girls against high-risk HPV is relatively cost effective even when vaccine efficacy is low. If the vaccine efficacy rate is 35%, the cost effectiveness increases to $52,398/QALY. Although gains in life expectancy may be modest at the individual level, population benefits are substantial.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:The highly infectious human papillomavirus (HPV) causes both genital warts and cervical cancer in women. In 2009, the prevalence of genital warts in Hong Kong was 203.7 per 100,000 person-years. Cervical cancer, more seriously, was the eight most common cancer among women and girls in Hong Kong, accounting for 2.3% of all new cancer cases in females in 2014. Cervical cancer is a significant global public health problem and HPV is a major risk factor leading to the development of cervical cancer. HPV is also the most common sexually transmitted disease among university students. This is the first study to examine the acceptability of HPV vaccines and associations with perceptions related to HPV and HPV vaccines among the male baccalaureate student population locally. METHODS:A self-administrative cross-sectional survey was used to assess whether male baccalaureate students from eight local Hong Kong universities intended to be immunized for HPV. The study also asked questions concerning how its subjects perceived HPV and HPV vaccines using the Health Belief Model. Data collection spanned from June to September 2015. A multiple stepwise regression model was used to examine associations between cognitive factors and subjects' intention to take up the HPV vaccine. RESULTS:A total of 1,004 (83.7%) students aged 18 and 26 participated in this study. 23.3% found vaccinating for HPV acceptable, a level correlating with a number of indicators. Subjects were more likely to find vaccinating acceptable if 1) they knew something about HPV vaccines; 2) they understood that men were susceptible to infection by HPV; 3) they realised they could benefit by HPV vaccination, and 4) they were aware of the arguments for and against HPV vaccination, as disseminated by either the media or peers. CONCLUSIONS:HPV remains a significant public health concern in Hong Kong and China more broadly. This study's findings show a disconnect between the perceived and actual risk of being infected with the HPV vaccine among male baccalaureate students. This disconnect may be bridged by informing young men of the benefits of their being vaccinated against HPV, by removing the psychological and financial barriers that prevent them from taking up the vaccine and by improving how primary healthcare providers motivate them to get immunized.
Project description:Costs associated with HPV-related diseases such as cervical dysplasia, cervical cancer, and genital warts have not been evaluated in Sweden. These costs must be estimated in order to determine the potential savings if these diseases were eradicated and to assess the combined cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening. The present study aimed to estimate prevention, management, and treatment costs associated with cervical dysplasia, cervical cancer, and genital warts from a societal perspective in Sweden in 2009, 1 year before the quadrivalent HPV vaccination program was implemented.Data from the Swedish cervical cancer screening program was used to calculate the costs associated with prevention (cytological cervical cancer screening), management (colposcopy and biopsy following inadequate/abnormal cytological results), and treatment of CIN. Swedish official statistics were used to estimate treatment costs associated with cervical cancer. Published epidemiological data were used to estimate the number of incident, recurrent, and persistent cases of genital warts; a clinical expert panel assessed management and treatment procedures. Estimated visits, procedures, and use of medications were used to calculate the annual cost associated with genital warts.From a societal perspective, total estimated costs associated with cervical cancer and genital warts in 2009 were €106.6 million, of which €81.4 million (76%) were direct medical costs. Costs associated with prevention, management, and treatment of CIN were €74 million; screening and management costs for women with normal and inadequate cytology alone accounted for 76% of this sum. The treatment costs associated with incident and prevalent cervical cancer and palliative care were €23 million. Estimated costs for incident, recurrent and persistent cases of genital warts were €9.8 million.Prevention, management, and treatment costs associated with cervical dysplasia, cervical cancer, and genital warts are substantial. Defining these costs is important for future cost-effectiveness analyses of the quadrivalent HPV vaccination program in Sweden.
Project description:BACKGROUND: Similar to many developed countries, vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is provided only to girls in New Zealand and coverage is relatively low (47% in school-aged girls for dose 3). Some jurisdictions have already extended HPV vaccination to school-aged boys. Thus, exploration of the cost-utility of adding boys' vaccination is relevant. We modeled the incremental health gain and costs for extending the current girls-only program to boys, intensifying the current girls-only program to achieve 73% coverage, and extension of the intensive program to boys. METHODS: A Markov macro-simulation model, which accounted for herd immunity, was developed for an annual cohort of 12-year-olds in 2011 and included the future health states of: cervical cancer, pre-cancer (CIN I to III), genital warts, and three other HPV-related cancers. In each state, health sector costs, including additional health costs from extra life, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were accumulated. The model included New Zealand data on cancer incidence and survival, and other cause mortality (all by sex, age, ethnicity and deprivation). RESULTS: At an assumed local willingness-to-pay threshold of US$29,600, vaccination of 12-year-old boys to achieve the current coverage for girls would not be cost-effective, at US$61,400/QALY gained (95% UI $29,700 to $112,000; OECD purchasing power parities) compared to the current girls-only program, with an assumed vaccine cost of US$59 (NZ$113). This was dominated though by the intensified girls-only program; US$17,400/QALY gained (95% UI: dominant to $46,100). Adding boys to this intensified program was also not cost-effective; US$128,000/QALY gained, 95% UI: $61,900 to $247,000).Vaccination of boys was not found to be cost-effective, even for additional scenarios with very low vaccine or program administration costs - only when combined vaccine and administration costs were NZ$125 or lower per dose was vaccination of boys cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that adding boys to the girls-only HPV vaccination program in New Zealand is highly unlikely to be cost-effective. In order for vaccination of males to become cost-effective in New Zealand, vaccine would need to be supplied at very low prices and administration costs would need to be minimised.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) primary screening triage with p16/Ki-67 dual stain cytology compared to cytology. METHODS:We conducted an Excel®-based budget impact model to estimate the preinvasive and invasive cervical cancer cases identified, mortality rate, direct medical costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and the incremental cost-effectiveness analysis of two strategies from the healthcare payer perspective. The study population is a cohort of women 30-65 years of age presenting for cervical screening. RESULTS:HPV primary screening triage with p16/Ki-67 dual stain showed higher sensitivity without losing specificity compared to conventional Pap smear. The improving the screening performance leads to decrease the prevalence of precancerous lesion, annual incidence and mortality of cervical cancer. The incidence of cervical cancer case detected by new algorithm compared with conventional method were 31,607 and 38,927, respectively. In addition, the new algorithm was more effective and more costly (average QALY 24.03, annual cost $13,262,693) than conventional cytology (average QALY 23.98, annual cost $7,713,251). The incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER) per QALY gained was $1,395. The sensitivity analysis showed if the cost of cytology and HPV test increased three times, the ICER would fall to $303/QALY gained and increased to $4,970/QALY gained, respectively. CONCLUSION:Our model results suggest that screening by use of HPV genotyping test as a primary screening test combined with dual stain cytology as the triage of HPV positive women in Thai population 30-65 years old is expected to be more cost-effective than conventional Pap cytology.