Prognostic and predictive value of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in postmenopausal women with node-positive, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer on chemotherapy: a retrospective analysis of a randomised trial.
ABSTRACT: The 21-gene recurrence score assay is prognostic for women with node-negative, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer treated with tamoxifen. A low recurrence score predicts little benefit of chemotherapy. For node-positive breast cancer, we investigated whether the recurrence score was prognostic in women treated with tamoxifen alone and whether it identified those who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite higher risks of recurrence.The phase 3 trial SWOG-8814 for postmenopausal women with node-positive, oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer showed that chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and fluorouracil (CAF) before tamoxifen (CAF-T) added survival benefit to treatment with tamoxifen alone. Optional tumour banking yielded specimens for determination of recurrence score by RT-PCR. In this retrospective analysis, we assessed the effect of recurrence score on disease-free survival by treatment group (tamoxifen vs CAF-T) using Cox regression, adjusting for number of positive nodes.There were 367 specimens (40% of the 927 patients in the tamoxifen and CAF-T groups) with sufficient RNA for analysis (tamoxifen, n=148; CAF-T, n=219). The recurrence score was prognostic in the tamoxifen-alone group (p=0.006; hazard ratio [HR] 2.64, 95% CI 1.33-5.27, for a 50-point difference in recurrence score). There was no benefit of CAF in patients with a low recurrence score (score <18; log-rank p=0.97; HR 1.02, 0.54-1.93), but an improvement in disease-free survival for those with a high recurrence score (score > or =31; log-rank p=0.033; HR 0.59, 0.35-1.01), after adjustment for number of positive nodes. The recurrence score by treatment interaction was significant in the first 5 years (p=0.029), with no additional prediction beyond 5 years (p=0.58), although the cumulative benefit remained at 10 years. Results were similar for overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival.The recurrence score is prognostic for tamoxifen-treated patients with positive nodes and predicts significant benefit of CAF in tumours with a high recurrence score. A low recurrence score identifies women who might not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy, despite positive nodes.National Cancer Institute and Genomic Health.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Tamoxifen is standard adjuvant treatment for postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer. We assessed the benefit of adding chemotherapy to adjuvant tamoxifen and whether tamoxifen should be given concurrently or after chemotherapy.<h4>Methods</h4>We undertook a phase 3, parallel, randomised trial (SWOG-8814, INT-0100) in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive, node-positive breast cancer to test two major objectives: whether the primary outcome, disease-free survival, was longer with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and fluorouracil (CAF) given every 4 weeks for six cycles plus 5 years of daily tamoxifen than with tamoxifen alone; and whether disease-free survival was longer with CAF followed by tamoxifen (CAF-T) than with CAF plus concurrent tamoxifen (CAFT). Overall survival and toxicity were predefined, important secondary outcomes for each objective. Patients in this open-label trial were randomly assigned by a computer algorithm in a 2:3:3 ratio (tamoxifen:CAF-T:CAFT) and analysis was by intention to treat of eligible patients. Groups were compared by stratified log-rank tests, followed by Cox regression analyses adjusted for significant prognostic factors. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00929591.<h4>Findings</h4>Of 1558 randomised women, 1477 (95%) were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. After a maximum of 13 years of follow-up (median 8.94 years), 637 women had a disease-free survival event (tamoxifen, 179 events in 361 patients; CAF-T, 216 events in 566 patients; CAFT, 242 events in 550 patients). For the first objective, therapy with the CAF plus tamoxifen groups combined (CAFT or CAF-T) was superior to tamoxifen alone for the primary endpoint of disease-free survival (adjusted Cox regression hazard ratio [HR] 0.76, 95% CI 0.64-0.91; p=0.002) but only marginally for the secondary endpoint of overall survival (HR 0.83, 0.68-1.01; p=0.057). For the second objective, the adjusted HRs favoured CAF-T over CAFT but did not reach significance for disease-free survival (HR 0.84, 0.70-1.01; p=0.061) or overall survival (HR 0.90, 0.73-1.10; p=0.30). Neutropenia, stomatitis, thromboembolism, congestive heart failure, and leukaemia were more frequent in the combined CAF plus tamoxifen groups than in the tamoxifen-alone group.<h4>Interpretation</h4>Chemotherapy with CAF plus tamoxifen given sequentially is more effective adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal patients with endocrine-responsive, node-positive breast cancer than is tamoxifen alone. However, it might be possible to identify some subgroups that do not benefit from anthracycline-based chemotherapy despite positive nodes.<h4>Funding</h4>National Cancer Institute (US National Institutes of Health).
Project description:The Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS) is a validated genomic predictor of outcome and response to adjuvant chemotherapy in ER-positive breast cancer. Adjuvant! was developed using SEER registry data and results from the Early Breast Cancer Clinical Trialists' overview analyses to estimate outcome and benefit from adjuvant hormonal therapy and chemotherapy. In this report we compare the prognostic and predictive utility of these two tools in node-negative, ER-positive breast cancer. RS and Adjuvant! results were available from 668 tamoxifen-treated NSABP B-14 patients, 227 tamoxifen-treated NSABP B-20 patients, and 424 chemotherapy plus tamoxifen-treated B-20 patients. Adjuvant! results were also available from 1952 B-20 patients. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI). Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the prognostic and predictive utility of RS and Adjuvant!. Both RS (P < 0.001) and Adjuvant! (P = 0.002) provided strong independent prognostic information in tamoxifen-treated patients. Combining RS and individual clinicopathologic characteristics provided greater prognostic discrimination than combining RS and the composite Adjuvant!. In the B-20 cohort with RS results (n = 651), RS was significantly predictive of chemotherapy benefit (interaction P = 0.031 for DRFI, P = 0.011 for overall survival [OS], P = 0.082 for disease-free survival [DFS]), but Adjuvant! was not (interaction P = 0.99, P = 0.311, and P = 0.357, respectively). However, in the larger B-20 sub-cohort (n = 1952), Adjuvant! was significantly predictive of chemotherapy benefit for OS (interaction P = 0.009) but not for DRFI (P = 0.219) or DFS (P = 0.099). Prognostic estimates can be optimized by combining RS and clinicopathologic information instead of simply combining RS and Adjuvant!. RS should be used for estimating relative chemotherapy benefit.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) predicts outcome and benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy. In the NSABP B-28 study, we evaluated the 21-gene RS for its prognostic impact and its ability to predict benefit from paclitaxel (P) in node-positive, estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy plus tamoxifen. METHODS:The B-28 trial compared doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide (AC) with AC followed by P in 3060 patients. Tamoxifen for 5 years was also given to patients > 50 years and those < 50 years with ER+ and/or progesterone receptor-positive (PR+) tumors. The present study includes 1065 ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients with RS assessment. Median follow-up time was 11.2 years. RESULTS:In univariate analyses, RS was a significant predictor of outcome. In multivariate analyses, RS remained a significant independent predictor of outcome beyond clinico-pathologic factors, age, and type of surgery (p < 0.001). In the study population (n = 1065), the disease-free survival (DFS) hazard ratio (HR) with adding P to AC was 0.87 (95% CI 0.72-1.05; p = 0.14). RS was not a significant predictor of P benefit: for DFS, HRs for adding P to AC in RS low, intermediate, and high subgroups were 1.01 (95% CI 0.69-1.47; p = 0.99), 0.84 (95% CI 0.62-1.14; p = 0.26), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.60-1.10; p = 0.21), respectively (interaction p = 0.64). Similar findings were observed for the other study endpoints. CONCLUSIONS:RS maintains significant prognostic impact in ER-positive, node-positive patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy plus tamoxifen. However, RS did not significantly predict benefit from adding paclitaxel to AC chemotherapy. (Trial Registration: PDQ: NSABP-B-28).
Project description:<h4>Purpose</h4>The 21-gene breast cancer assay recurrence score (RS) is widely used for assessing recurrence risk and predicting chemotherapy benefit in patients with estrogen receptor (ER) -positive breast cancer. Pathologic and clinical factors such as tumor size, grade, and patient age also provide independent prognostic utility. We developed a formal integration of these measures and evaluated its prognostic and predictive value.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>From the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) B-14 and translational research cohort of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (TransATAC) studies, we included patients who received hormonal monotherapy, had ER-positive tumors, and RS and traditional clinicopathologic factors assessed (647 and 1,088, respectively). Individual patient risk assessments from separate Cox models were combined using meta-analysis to form an RS-pathology-clinical (RSPC) assessment of distant recurrence risk. Risk assessments by RS and RSPC were compared in node-negative (N0) patients. RSPC was compared with RS for predicting chemotherapy benefit in NSABP B-20.<h4>Results</h4>RSPC had significantly more prognostic value for distant recurrence than did RS (P < .001) and showed better separation of risk in the study population. RSPC classified fewer patients as intermediate risk (17.8% v 26.7%, P < .001) and more patients as lower risk (63.8% v 54.2%, P < .001) than did RS among 1,444 N0 ER-positive patients. In B-20, the interaction of RSPC with chemotherapy was not statistically significant (P = .10), in contrast to the previously reported significant interaction of RS with chemotherapy (P = .037).<h4>Conclusion</h4>RSPC refines the assessment of distant recurrence risk and reduces the number of patients classified as intermediate risk. Adding clinicopathologic measures did not seem to enhance the value of RS alone nor the individual biology RS identifies in predicting chemotherapy benefit.
Project description:<h4>Introduction</h4>The Oncotype DX assay was recently reported to predict risk for distant recurrence among a clinical trial population of tamoxifen-treated patients with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. To confirm and extend these findings, we evaluated the performance of this 21-gene assay among node-negative patients from a community hospital setting.<h4>Methods</h4>A case-control study was conducted among 4,964 Kaiser Permanente patients diagnosed with node-negative invasive breast cancer from 1985 to 1994 and not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Cases (n = 220) were patients who died from breast cancer. Controls (n = 570) were breast cancer patients who were individually matched to cases with respect to age, race, adjuvant tamoxifen, medical facility and diagnosis year, and were alive at the date of death of their matched case. Using an RT-PCR assay, archived tumor tissues were analyzed for expression levels of 16 cancer-related and five reference genes, and a summary risk score (the Recurrence Score) was calculated for each patient. Conditional logistic regression methods were used to estimate the association between risk of breast cancer death and Recurrence Score.<h4>Results</h4>After adjusting for tumor size and grade, the Recurrence Score was associated with risk of breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients (P = 0.003 and P = 0.03, respectively). At 10 years, the risks for breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients were 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7-3.9%), 10.7% (95% CI 6.3-14.9%), and 15.5% (95% CI 7.6-22.8%) for those in the low, intermediate and high risk Recurrence Score groups, respectively. They were 6.2% (95% CI 4.5-7.9%), 17.8% (95% CI 11.8-23.3%), and 19.9% (95% CI 14.2-25.2%) for ER-positive patients not treated with tamoxifen. In both the tamoxifen-treated and -untreated groups, approximately 50% of patients had low risk Recurrence Score values.<h4>Conclusion</h4>In this large, population-based study of lymph node-negative patients not treated with chemotherapy, the Recurrence Score was strongly associated with risk of breast cancer death among ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients.
Project description:<h4>Importance</h4>The 21-gene assay recurrence score is increasingly used to personalize treatment recommendations for systemic therapy in postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor (ER)- or progesterone receptor (PR)-positive, node-positive breast cancer; however, the relevance of the 21-gene assay to radiotherapy decisions remains uncertain.<h4>Objective</h4>To examine the association between recurrence score and locoregional recurrence (LRR) in a postmenopausal patient population treated with adjuvant chemotherapy followed by tamoxifen or tamoxifen alone.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>This cohort study was a retrospective analysis of the Southwest Oncology Group S8814, a phase 3 randomized clinical trial of postmenopausal women with ER/PR-positive, node-positive breast cancer treated with tamoxifen alone, chemotherapy followed by tamoxifen, or concurrent tamoxifen and chemotherapy. Patients at North American clinical centers were enrolled from June 1989 to July 1995. Medical records from patients with recurrence score information were reviewed for LRR and radiotherapy use. Primary analysis included 316 patients and excluded 37 who received both mastectomy and radiotherapy, 9 who received breast-conserving surgery without documented radiotherapy, and 5 with unknown surgical type. All analyses were performed from January 22, 2016, to August 9, 2019.<h4>Main outcomes and measures</h4>The LRR was defined as a recurrence in the breast; chest wall; or axillary, infraclavicular, supraclavicular, or internal mammary lymph nodes. Time to LRR was tested with log-rank tests and Cox proportional hazards regression for multivariate models.<h4>Results</h4>The final cohort of this study comprised 316 women with a mean (range) age of 60.4 (44-81) years. Median (interquartile range) follow-up for those without LRR was 8.7 (7.0-10.2) years. Seven LRR events (5.8%) among 121 patients with low recurrence score and 27 LRR events (13.8%) among 195 patients with intermediate or high recurrence score occurred. The estimated 10-year cumulative incidence rates were 9.7% for those with a low recurrence score and 16.5% for the group with intermediate or high recurrence score (P?=?.02). Among patients who had a mastectomy without radiotherapy (n?=?252), the differences in the 10-year actuarial LRR rates remained significant: 7.7 % for the low recurrence score group vs 16.8% for the intermediate or high recurrence score group (P?=?.03). A multivariable model controlling for randomized treatment, number of positive nodes, and surgical type showed that a higher recurrence score was prognostic for LRR (hazard ratio [HR],?2.36; 95% CI, 1.02-5.45; P?=?.04). In a subset analysis of patients with a mastectomy and 1 to 3 involved nodes who did not receive radiation therapy, the group with a low recurrence score had a 1.5% rate of LRR, whereas the group with an intermediate or high recurrence score had a 11.1% LRR (P?=?.051).<h4>Conclusions and relevance</h4>This study found that higher recurrence scores were associated with increased LRR after adjustment for treatment, type of surgical procedure, and number of positive nodes. This finding suggests that the recurrence score may be used, along with accepted clinical variables, to assess the risk of LRR during radiotherapy decision-making.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The use of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with breast cancer may be guided by clinicopathological factors and a score based on a 21-gene assay to determine the risk of recurrence. Whether the level of clinical risk of breast cancer recurrence adds prognostic information to the recurrence score is not known. METHODS:We performed a prospective trial involving 9427 women with hormone-receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, axillary node-negative breast cancer, in whom an assay of 21 genes had been performed, and we classified the clinical risk of recurrence of breast cancer as low or high on the basis of the tumor size and histologic grade. The effect of clinical risk was evaluated by calculating hazard ratios for distant recurrence with the use of Cox proportional-hazards models. The initial endocrine therapy was tamoxifen alone in the majority of the premenopausal women who were 50 years of age or younger. RESULTS:The level of clinical risk was prognostic of distant recurrence in women with an intermediate 21-gene recurrence score of 11 to 25 (on a scale of 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating a worse prognosis or a greater potential benefit from chemotherapy) who were randomly assigned to endocrine therapy (hazard ratio for the comparison of high vs. low clinical risk, 2.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.93 to 3.87) or to chemotherapy plus endocrine (chemoendocrine) therapy (hazard ratio, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.66 to 3.48) and in women with a high recurrence score (a score of 26 to 100), all of whom were assigned to chemoendocrine therapy (hazard ratio, 3.17; 95% CI, 1.94 to 5.19). Among women who were 50 years of age or younger who had received endocrine therapy alone, the estimated (±SE) rate of distant recurrence at 9 years was less than 5% (?1.8±0.9%) with a low recurrence score (a score of 0 to 10), irrespective of clinical risk, and 4.7±1.0% with an intermediate recurrence score and low clinical risk. In this age group, the estimated distant recurrence at 9 years exceeded 10% among women with a high clinical risk and an intermediate recurrence score who received endocrine therapy alone (12.3±2.4%) and among those with a high recurrence score who received chemoendocrine therapy (15.2±3.3%). CONCLUSIONS:Clinical-risk stratification provided prognostic information that, when added to the 21-gene recurrence score, could be used to identify premenopausal women who could benefit from more effective therapy. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00310180.).
Project description:Importance:Multiple molecular signatures are available for managing estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer but with little direct comparative information to guide the patient's choice. Objective:To conduct a within-patient comparison of the prognostic value of 6 multigene signatures in women with early ER-positive breast cancer who received endocrine therapy for 5 years. Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective biomarker analysis included 774 postmenopausal women with ER-positive ERBB2 (formerly HER2)-negative breast cancer. This analysis was performed as a preplanned secondary study of data from the Anastrozole or Tamoxifen Alone or Combined randomized clinical trial comparing 5-year treatment with anastrozole vs tamoxifen with 10-year follow-up data. The signatures included the Oncotype Dx recurrence score, PAM50-based Prosigna risk of recurrence (ROR), Breast Cancer Index (BCI), EndoPredict (EPclin), Clinical Treatment Score, and 4-marker immunohistochemical score. Data were collected from January 2009, through April 2015. Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary objective was to compare the prognostic value of these signatures in addition to the Clinical Treatment Score (nodal status, tumor size, grade, age, and endocrine treatment) for distant recurrence for 0 to 10 years and 5 to 10 years after diagnosis. Likelihood ratio (LR) statistics were used with the ?2 test and C indexes to assess the prognostic value of each signature. Results:In this study of 774 postmenopausal women with ER-positive, ERBB2-negative disease (mean [SD] age, 64.1 [8.1] years), 591 (mean [SD] age, 63.4 [7.9] years) had node-negative disease. The signatures providing the most prognostic information were the ROR (hazard ratio [HR], 2.56; 95% CI, 1.96-3.35), followed by the BCI (HR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.88-3.23) and EPclin (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.71-2.68). Each provided significantly more information than the Clinical Treatment Score (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.58-2.50), the recurrence score (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.40-2.03), and the 4-marker immunohistochemical score (HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.55-2.45). Substantially less information was provided by all 6 molecular tests for the 183 patients with 1 to 3 positive nodes, but the BCI (?LR ?2?=?9.2) and EPclin (?LR ?2?=?7.4) provided more additional prognostic information than the other signatures. Conclusions and Relevance:For women with node-negative disease, the ROR, BCI, and EPclin were significantly more prognostic for overall and late distant recurrence. For women with 1 to 3 positive nodes, limited independent information was available from any test. These data might help oncologists and patients to choose the most appropriate test when considering chemotherapy use and/or extended endocrine therapy. Trial Registration:isrctn.com Identifier: ISRCTN18233230.
Project description:<h4>Introduction</h4>Patients with early-stage breast cancer, treated with endocrine therapy, have approximately 90% 5-year disease-free survival. However, for patients at higher risk of relapse despite endocrine therapy, additional adjuvant therapy, such as chemotherapy, may be indicated. The challenge is to prospectively identify such patients. The Mammostrat® test uses five immunohistochemical markers to stratify patients on tamoxifen therapy into risk groups to inform treatment decisions. We tested the efficacy of this panel in a mixed population of cases treated in a single center with breast-conserving surgery and long-term follow-up.<h4>Methods</h4>Tissue microarrays from a consecutive series (1981 to 1998) of 1,812 women managed by wide local excision and postoperative radiotherapy were collected following appropriate ethical review. Of 1,390 cases stained, 197 received no adjuvant hormonal or chemotherapy, 1,044 received tamoxifen only, and 149 received a combination of hormonal therapy and chemotherapy. Median age at diagnosis was 57, 71% were postmenopausal, 23.9% were node-positive and median tumor size was 1.5 cm. Samples were stained using triplicate 0.6 mm2 tissue microarray cores, and positivity for p53, HTF9C, CEACAM5, NDRG1 and SLC7A5 was assessed. Each case was assigned a Mammostrat risk score, and distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS), relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed by marker positivity and risk score.<h4>Results</h4>Increased Mammostrat scores were significantly associated with reduced DRFS, RFS and OS in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer (P < 0.00001). In multivariate analyses the risk score was independent of conventional risk factors for DRFS, RFS and OS (P < 0.05). In node-negative, tamoxifen-treated patients, 10-year recurrence rates were 7.6 ± 1.5% in the low-risk group versus 20.0 ± 4.4% in the high-risk group. Further, exploratory analyses revealed associations with outcome in both ER-negative and untreated patients.<h4>Conclusions</h4>This is the fifth independent study providing evidence that Mammostrat can act as an independent prognostic tool for ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated breast cancer. In addition, this study revealed for the first time a possible association with outcome regardless of node status and ER-negative tumors. When viewed in the context of previous results, these data provide further support for this antibody panel as an aid to patient management in early-stage breast cancer.
Project description:The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) predicts risk of locoregional recurrence (LRR) in node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. We evaluated the association between RS and LRR in node-positive, ER-positive patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy plus tamoxifen in National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-28. B-28 compared doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide (AC X 4) with AC X 4 followed by paclitaxel X 4. Tamoxifen was given to patients age 50 years or older and those younger than age 50 years with ER-positive and/or progesterone receptor-positive tumors. Lumpectomy patients received breast radiotherapy. Mastectomy patients received no radiotherapy. The present study includes 1065 ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients with RS assessment. Cumulative incidence functions and subdistribution hazard regression models were used for LRR to account for competing risks including distant recurrence, second primary cancers, and death from other causes. Median follow-up was 11.2 years. All statistical tests were one-sided. There were 80 LRRs (7.5%) as first events (68% local/32% regional). RS was low: 36.2%; intermediate: 34.2%; and high: 29.6%. RS was a statistically significant predictor of LRR in univariate analyses (10-year cumulative incidence of LRR = 3.3%, 7.2%, and 12.2% for low, intermediate, and high RS, respectively, P < .001). In multivariable regression analysis, RS remained an independent predictor of LRR (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28 to 5.26, for a 50-point difference, P = .008) along with pathologic nodal status (HR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.20 to 3.03, for four or more vs one to three positive nodes, P = .006) and tumor size (HR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.55, for a 1 cm difference, P = .02). RS statistically significantly predicts risk of LRR in node-positive, ER-positive breast cancer patients after adjuvant chemotherapy plus tamoxifen. These findings can help in the selection of appropriate candidates for comprehensive radiotherapy.