Mortality predictive indexes for the community-dwelling elderly US population.
ABSTRACT: Few predictive indexes for long-term mortality have been developed for community-dwelling elderly populations. Parsimonious predictive indexes are important decision-making tools for clinicians, policy makers, and epidemiologists.To develop 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality predictive indexes for nationally representative community-dwelling elderly people.Cohort study.The Second Longitudinal Study of Aging (LSOA II).Nationally representative civilian community-dwelling persons at least 70 years old. We randomly selected 60% of the sample for prediction development and used the remaining 40% for validation.Sociodemographics, impairments, and medical diagnoses were collected from the LSOA II baseline interviews. Instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) stages were derived to measure functional status. All-cause mortality was obtained from the LSOA II Linked Mortality Public-use File.The analyses included 7,373 sample persons with complete data, among which mortality rates were 3.7%, 23.3%, and 49.8% for 1, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Four, eight, and ten predictors were identified for 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality, respectively, in multiple logistic regression models to create three predictive indexes. Age, sex, coronary artery disease, and IADL stages were the most essential predictors for all three indexes. C-statistics of the three indexes were 0.72, 0.74, and 0.75 in the development cohort and 0.72, 0.72, and 0.74 in the validation cohort for 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality, respectively. Five risk groups were defined based on the scores.The 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality indexes include parsimonious predictor sets maximizing ease of mortality prediction in community settings. Thus, they may provide valuable information for prognosis of elderly patients and guide the comparison of alternative interventions. Including IADL stage as a predictor yields simplified mortality prediction when detailed disease information is not available.
Project description:Population-based data examining the relationship between social participation (SP) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) are scarce. This study examined the cross-sectional relationship between SP and IADL in community-dwelling elderly persons.Self-administered questionnaires were mailed to 23 710 residents aged ?65 years in Nara, Japan (response rate: 74.2%). Data from 14 956 respondents (6935 males and 8021 females) without dependency in basic activities of daily living (ADL) were analyzed. The number, type, and frequency of participation in social groups (SGs) were used to measure SP. SGs included volunteer groups, sports groups, hobby groups, senior citizens' clubs, neighborhood community associations, and cultural groups. IADL was evaluated using the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence. Logistic regression models stratified by gender were used.After adjustment for putative confounding factors, including demographics, health status, life-style habits, ADL, depression, cognitive function, social networks, social support, and social roles, participation in various SGs among both genders was inversely associated with poor IADL, showing a significant dose-response relationship between an increasing number of SGs and a lower proportion of those with poor IADL (P for trend <0.001). A significant inverse association between frequent participation and poor IADL was observed for all types of SGs among females, whereas the association was limited to sports groups and senior citizens' clubs among males.Our results show that participation in a variety of SGs is associated with independent IADL among the community-dwelling elderly, regardless of gender. However, the beneficial effects of frequent participation on IADL may be stronger for females than for males.
Project description:Although many studies have suggested social participation (SP) has beneficial effects on elderly people's health, most of them failed to deal with paid work. Additionally, few studies have focused on the age effect between SP and older people's health. To investigate whether the association between SP, including paid work, and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), exhibits not only in gender, but also in age among community-dwelling older adults.In 2014, we distributed self-administered questionnaires to all community-dwelling elderly aged ?65 in two medium-sized cities in Nara Prefecture, Japan (n = 32,825). 22,845 residents submitted the questionnaire (response rate, 69.6%). Analyzed subjects were limited to 17,680 persons who had neither dependency in basic ADL nor missing data for required items. SP was assessed based on participation frequency in seven types of social activities: volunteer groups, sports groups, hobby groups, cultural groups, senior citizens' clubs, neighborhood community associations, and paid work. Using Poisson regression models, prevalence ratio for poor IADL was calculated. To examine age and gender differences in the association between SP and IADL, we performed stratified analyses by age and gender group; male young-old (aged 65-74), male old-old (aged ?75), female young-old, and female old-old.Prevalence of those with poor IADL was 17.1% in males and 4.5% in females, showing a significant gender difference. After adjustment for relevant covariates, volunteer groups were inversely associated with poor IADL only in males and the relationship was stronger in the old-old group than in the young-old group. Conversely, only females had a significant inverse association between paid work and poor IADL, and the association was not reliant on their ages but only those who participated infrequently had a favorable effect. Influence of age in the beneficial association between SP and IADL was generally larger in the old-old group than in the young-old group, but hobby groups were inversely associated with poor IADL, regardless of age, gender, and frequency.Our results suggest that SP in older age is positively associated with IADL, however, the association seems to differ depending on the type of activities participated in, the participants' gender, and their age.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) is an indicator of whether a community-dwelling elderly can live independently. IADL decline was reported to be associated with aging and depression. The present study aimed to investigate whether the association between IADL decline and depressive symptoms differs with aging, using two age groups of community-dwelling Japanese elderly in their 70s and 80s. METHODS:We conducted longitudinal analysis among participants in their 70s and 80s at the baseline from Septuagenarians, Octogenarians, Nonagenarians Investigation with Centenarians (SONIC) study. IADL was assessed by The Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology (TMIG) index of competence. As a main predictor, depressive symptoms were measured by the five-item version of the Geriatrics Depression Scale (GDS-5). As possible confounders, we considered cognitive function, body mass index, solitary living, education, economic status, medical history of stroke and heart disease, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, and sex. We obtained odds ratios (ORs) of IADL decline for having depressive symptoms in each age group (70s/80s) and tested interactions between depressive symptoms and age groups in relation to IADL decline in 3?years by logistic regression. Additionally, to confirm age group differences, we conducted multiple group analysis. RESULTS:There were 559 participants in their 70s and 519 in their 80s. Compared to participants without depressive symptoms, those with depressive symptoms had higher OR of IADL decline in 70s (OR [95% CI]?=?2.33 [1.13, 4.78]), but not in 80s (OR [95% CI]?=?0.85 [0.46, 1.53]). There were significant interactions between depressive symptoms and age groups in relation to IADL decline (p-value?=?0.03). Multiple group analyses showed differences between the age groups by Akaike information criterion (AIC), and ORs (95%CI) decline for depressive symptoms was 2.33 (1.14, 4.77) in 70s and 0.85 (0.47, 1.54) in 80s. CONCLUSION:The association of depressive symptoms and IADL decline during the 3?years was significantly different between the 70s and 80s age groups, and significant association was found only in people in their 70s. Detecting depressive symptoms may be a key for preventing IADL decline in people in their 70s and not for those in their 80s.
Project description:This study's aim was to clarify the relationship of having hobbies and a purpose in life (PIL; in Japanese, ikigai) with mortality and a decline in the activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADL (IADL) among the community-dwelling elderly.Prospective observational data from residents aged ?65 years who were at increased risk for death (n = 1853) and developing a decline in ADL (n = 1254) and IADL (n = 1162) were analyzed. Cox proportional hazard models were used for mortality analysis of data from February 2011 to November 2014. ADL and IADL were evaluated using the Barthel Index and the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence, respectively. ADL and IADL were assessed at baseline and follow-up and were evaluated using logistic regression models. Fully adjusted models included terms for age, gender, BMI, income, alcohol intake, smoking history, number of chronic diseases, cognitive function, and depression.During the follow-up of eligible participants, 248 had died, 119 saw a decline in ADL, and 178 saw a decline in IADL. In fully adjusted models, having neither hobbies nor PIL was significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47-2.94), decline in ADL (odds ratio 2.74; 95% CI, 1.44-5.21), and decline in IADL (odds ratio 1.89; 95% CI, 1.01-3.55) compared to having both hobbies and PIL.Although effect modifications by cognitive functioning and depression cannot be ruled out, our findings suggest that having hobbies and PIL may extend not only longevity, but also healthy life expectancy among community-dwelling older adults.
Project description:We examined the predictive validity of a newly developed scale-the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology Activities of Daily Living (NCGG-ADL)-to measure instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) ability. We tested the scale for detecting new incidences of functional disability among community-dwelling older Japanese adults. Participants were 2708 older adults (mean age = 79.0 years, 51.6% women) living in the community who had no functional decline at baseline. We assessed IADL ability using the NCGG-ADL scale, comprising 13 self-report questions. Next, we assessed their functional disability monthly for 24 months, based on the national long-term care insurance (LTCI) system. Among all participants, 430 (15.9%) had an IADL limitation at baseline, and 289 (10.7%) were newly certified as functionally disabled. Participants scoring ? 12 of 13 points in the NCGG-ADL showed a significantly higher risk of functional disability than did those scoring 13 points, even after adjusting for covariates (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 1.58 [1.19-2.09]). We thus validated the NCGG-ADL as a screening tool for assessing the risk of functional disability among community-dwelling older Japanese adults. We conclude that IADL limitations, as measured by the NCGG-ADL, could be useful predictors of functional disability.
Project description:Self-rated health (SRH) is a measure of perceived health that has been shown to predict use of community services, functional decline, pain, and mortality. Many factors associated with SRH have been identified, but unmet need for physical assistance with activities of daily living (ADL) has not yet been examined. The objective of this paper is to examine the association between unmet need and SRH while accounting for the effects of other, previously identified, correlates of SRH. We conducted a secondary analysis of a population-based study of 839 residents of Montréal, Québec who were 75 years of age or older, not cognitively impaired, and living in the community. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between met and unmet personal ADL (PADL) and instrumental ADL (IADL) need for physical assistance with SRH. Among 508 disabled community-dwelling elderly, for each additional unmet IADL need, subjects were 1.70 (95% CI: 1.11-2.61) times more likely to report poorer SRH. For each additional unmet PADL need, subjects were 2.26 (95% CI: 1.31-3.91) times more likely to report poorer SRH. Subjects at increased risk of malnutrition, with greater comorbidity and whose income was insufficient to meet their needs were also more likely to report poorer SRH. After adjustment for important correlates, unmet PADL and IADL needs retain a statistically significant association with poorer SRH, with nutritional status, comorbid conditions, and income satisfaction being important confounders of the relationship.
Project description:There is insufficient evidence regarding the relationship of home environment with functional capacity among community-dwelling older people without disabilities. We conducted a population-based longitudinal cohort study and examined whether stairs in the home were associated with capability to perform instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) in community-dwelling high-functioning older adults.The target population was individuals aged 65 years or older living in two municipalities in Nara Prefecture in Japan. At the baseline survey, residents who were independent in IADL (n?=?6722) were included as survey subjects. Subjects were divided into three groups according to their home type; one-storey residences, walk-up residences, or residences with an elevator. IADL was evaluated using the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence. Multiple logistic regression analyses stratified by gender were used to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) for a decline in IADL, with one-storey residences as a reference. Age, studied area, marital status, working status, self-perceived economic status, body mass index, chronic diseases, smoking, drinking, eating habits, basic activities of daily living, cognitive functioning, depression, self-rated health, and social participation were used as covariates.During the 3-year follow-up, 11.6% of the subjects showed a decline in IADL. After adjusting for covariates, women who lived in walk-up residences had a lower risk for IADL decline (adjusted OR?=?0.72, 95% CI?=?0.52-0.99), while living in a home with an elevator was not associated with IADL decline (adjusted OR?=?0.94, 95% CI?=?0.49-1.77). In contrast, there was no association between home type and IADL decline in men (walk-up residences, adjusted OR?=?0.90, 95% CI?=?0.71-1.14; residences with an elevator, adjusted OR?=?0.82, 95% CI?=?0.39-1.72).The presence of stairs in the home was associated with prevention of IADL decline over a 3-year period in older women without disabilities. Although a barrier-free house is recommended for older people, our findings indicate that a home with stairs may maintain the capability to perform IADL among older adults without disabilities.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:We examined the association between frailty and disability in rural community-dwelling older adults in Kegalle district of Sri Lanka. DESIGN:A population-based cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS:A total of 746 community-dwelling adults aged ?60 years. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Frailty was assessed using the Fried phenotype. Disability was operationalised in terms of having one or more activity limitation/s in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and basic activities of daily living (BADL). RESULTS:The median age of the sample was (median 68; IQR 64-75) years and 56.7% were female. 15.2% were frail and 48.5% were prefrail. The prevalence of ?1?IADL limitations was high, 84.4% among frail adults. 38.7% of frail adults reported ?1?BADL limitations. Over half of frail older adults (58.3%) reported both ?1 physical and cognitive IADL limitations. Being frail decreased the odds of having no IADL limitations, and was associated with a higher count of IADL limitations. No significant association was found between prefrailty and number of IADL limitations. CONCLUSIONS:The prevalence of ?1?IADL limitations was high among rural community-dwelling frail older adults. Findings imply the greater support and care required for rural Sri Lankan frail older adults to live independently in the community.
Project description:BACKGROUND: If brief and easy to use self report screening tools are available to identify frail elderly, this may avoid costs and unnecessary assessment of healthy people. This study investigates the predictive validity of three self-report instruments for identifying community-dwelling frail elderly. METHODS: This is a prospective study with 1-year follow-up among community-dwelling elderly aged 70 or older (n = 430) to test sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predicted values of the Groningen Frailty Indicator, Tilburg Frailty Indicator and Sherbrooke Postal Questionnaire on development of disabilities, hospital admission and mortality. Odds ratios were calculated to compare frail versus non-frail groups for their risk for the adverse outcomes. RESULTS: Adjusted odds ratios show that those identified as frail have more than twice the risk (GFI, 2.62; TFI, 2.00; SPQ, 2,49) for developing disabilities compared to the non-frail group; those identified as frail by the TFI and SPQ have more than twice the risk of being admitted to a hospital. Sensitivity and specificity for development of disabilities are 71% and 63% (GFI), 62% and 71% (TFI) and 83% and 48% (SPQ). Regarding mortality, sensitivity for all tools are about 70% and specificity between 41% and 61%. For hospital admission, SPQ scores the highest for sensitivity (76%). CONCLUSION: All three instruments do have potential to identify older persons at risk, but their predictive power is not sufficient yet. Further research on these and other instruments is needed to improve targeting frail elderly.
Project description:This systematic review examines the effectiveness of occupation- and activity-based interventions on community-dwelling older adults' performance of instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs). It was conducted as part of the American Occupational Therapy Association's Evidence-Based Practice Project. Forty studies met the inclusion criteria and were critically appraised and synthesized. Within occupation-based and client-centered interventions, the evidence that multicomponent interventions improve and maintain IADL performance in community-dwelling older adults is strong. The results also indicate that client-centered, occupation-based interventions can be effective in improving and maintaining IADL performance. The evidence is moderate for functional task exercise programs and limited for simulated IADL interventions to improve IADL performance. In the area of performance skills, the evidence related to physical activity and cognitive skills training is mixed, and the evidence that vision rehabilitation interventions improve IADL performance in older adults with low vision is moderate. Implications for practice, education, and research are also discussed.