Near-term prediction of sudden cardiac death in older hemodialysis patients using electronic health records.
ABSTRACT: Sudden cardiac death is the most common cause of death among individuals undergoing hemodialysis. The epidemiology of sudden cardiac death has been well studied, and efforts are shifting to risk assessment. This study aimed to test whether assessment of acute changes during hemodialysis that are captured in electronic health records improved risk assessment.Data were collected from all hemodialysis sessions of patients 66 years and older receiving hemodialysis from a large national dialysis provider between 2004 and 2008. The primary outcome of interest was sudden cardiac death the day of or day after a dialysis session. This study used data from 2004 to 2006 as the training set and data from 2007 to 2008 as the validation set. The machine learning algorithm, Random Forests, was used to derive the prediction model.In 22 million sessions, 898 people between 2004 and 2006 and 826 people between 2007 and 2008 died on the day of or day after a dialysis session that was serving as a training or test data session, respectively. A reasonably strong predictor was derived using just predialysis information (concordance statistic=0.782), which showed modest but significant improvement after inclusion of postdialysis information (concordance statistic=0.799, P<0.001). However, risk prediction decreased the farther out that it was forecasted (up to 1 year), and postdialytic information became less important.Subtle changes in the experience of hemodialysis aid in the assessment of sudden cardiac death and are captured by modern electronic health records. The collected data are better for the assessment of near-term risk as opposed to longer-term risk.
Project description:Hemodialysis patients carry a large burden of cardiovascular disease; most onerous is the high risk for sudden cardiac death. Defining sudden cardiac death among hemodialysis patients and understanding its pathogenesis are challenging, but inferences from the existing literature reveal differences between sudden cardiac death among hemodialysis patients and the general population. Vascular calcifications and left ventricular hypertrophy may play a role in the pathophysiology of sudden cardiac death, whereas traditional cardiovascular risk factors seem to have a more muted effect. Arrhythmic triggers also differ in this group as compared to the general population, with some arising uniquely from the hemodialysis procedure. Combined, these factors may alter the types of terminal arrhythmias that lead to sudden cardiac death among hemodialysis patients, having important implications for prevention strategies. This review highlights current knowledge on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and risk factors for sudden cardiac death among hemodialysis patients. We then examine strategies for prevention, including the use of specific cardiac medications and device-based therapies such as implantable defibrillators. We also discuss dialysis-specific prevention strategies, including minimizing exposure to low potassium and calcium dialysate concentrations, extending dialysis treatment times or adding sessions to avoid rapid ultrafiltration, and lowering dialysate temperature.
Project description:Background In patients with end-stage kidney disease, sudden cardiac death is more frequent after a long interdialytic interval, within 6 hours after the end of a hemodialysis session. We hypothesized that the occurrence of paroxysmal arrhythmias is associated with changes in heart rate and heart rate variability in different phases of hemodialysis. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective ancillary study of the Predictors of Arrhythmic and Cardiovascular Risk in End Stage Renal Disease cohort. Continuous ECG monitoring was performed using an ECG patch, and short-term heart rate variability was measured for 3 minutes every hour (by root mean square of the successive normal-to-normal intervals, spectral analysis, Poincaré plot, and entropy), up to 300 hours. Out of enrolled participants (n=28; age 54±13 years; 57% men; 96% black; 33% with a history of cardiovascular disease; left ventricular ejection fraction 70±9%), arrhythmias were detected in 13 (46%). Nonsustained ventricular tachycardia occurred more frequently during/posthemodialysis than pre-/between hemodialysis (63% versus 37%, P=0.015). In adjusted for cardiovascular disease time-series analysis, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia was preceded by a sudden heart rate increase (by 11.2 [95% CI 10.1-12.3] beats per minute; P<0.0001). During every-other-day dialysis, root mean square of the successive normal-to-normal intervals had a significant circadian pattern (Mesor 10.6 [ 95% CI 0.9-11.2] ms; amplitude 1.5 [95% CI 1.0-3.1] ms; peak at 02:01 [95% CI 20:22-03:16] am; P<0.0001), which was replaced by a steady worsening on the second day without dialysis (root mean square of the successive normal-to-normal intervals -1.41 [95% CI -1.67 to -1.15] ms/24 h; P<0.0001). Conclusions Sudden increase in heart rate during/posthemodialysis is associated with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia. Every-other-day hemodialysis preserves circadian rhythm, but a second day without dialysis is characterized by parasympathetic withdrawal.
Project description:Asymmetric (ADMA) and symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA) are putative uremic toxins that may exert toxicity by a number of mechanisms, including impaired nitric oxide synthesis and generation of reactive oxygen species. The study goal was to determine the association between these metabolites and cardiovascular outcomes in hemodialysis patients.Post hoc analysis of the Hemodialysis (HEMO) Study.1,276 prevalent hemodialysis patients with available samples 3 to 6 months after randomization.ADMA and SDMA measured in stored specimens.Cardiac death, sudden cardiac death, first cardiovascular event, and any-cause death. Association with predictors analyzed using Cox regression adjusted for potential confounders (including demographics, clinical characteristics, comorbid conditions, albumin level, and residual kidney function).Mean age of patients was 57±14 (SD) years, 63% were black, and 57% were women. Mean ADMA (0.9±0.2?mol/L) and SDMA levels (4.3±1.4?mol/L) were moderately correlated (r=0.418). Higher dialysis dose or longer session length were not associated with lower predialysis ADMA or SDMA concentrations. In fully adjusted models, each doubling of ADMA level was associated with higher risk (HR per 2-fold higher concentration; 95% CI) of cardiac death (1.83; 1.29-2.58), sudden cardiac death (1.79; 1.19-2.69), first cardiovascular event (1.50; 1.20-1.87), and any-cause death (1.44; 1.13-1.83). Compared to the lowest ADMA quintile (<0.745 ?mol/L), the highest ADMA quintile (?1.07?mol/L) was associated with higher risk (HR; 95% CI) of cardiac death (2.10; 1.44-3.05), sudden cardiac death (2.06; 1.46-2.90), first cardiovascular event (1.75; 1.35-2.27), and any-cause death (1.56; 1.21-2.00). SDMA level was associated with higher risk for cardiac death (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.03-1.92), but this was no longer statistically significant after adjusting for ADMA level (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.86-1.68).Single time-point measurement of ADMA and SDMA.ADMA and, to a lesser extent, SDMA levels are associated with cardiovascular outcomes in hemodialysis patients.
Project description:The single leading cause of mortality on hemodialysis is sudden cardiac death. Whether measures of electrophysiologic substrate independently associate with mortality is unknown. We examined measures of electrophysiologic substrate in a prospective cohort of 571 patients on incident hemodialysis enrolled in the Predictors of Arrhythmic and Cardiovascular Risk in End Stage Renal Disease Study. A total of 358 participants completed both baseline 5-minute and 12-lead electrocardiogram recordings on a nondialysis day. Measures of electrophysiologic substrate included ventricular late potentials by the signal-averaged electrocardiogram and spatial mean QRS-T angle measured on the averaged beat recorded within a median of 106 days (interquartile range, 78-151 days) from dialysis initiation. The cohort was 59% men, and 73% were black, with a mean±SD age of 55±13 years. Transthoracic echocardiography revealed a mean±SD ejection fraction of 65.5%±12.0% and a mean±SD left ventricular mass index of 66.6±22.3 g/m2.7 During 864.6 person-years of follow-up, 77 patients died; 35 died from cardiovascular causes, of which 15 were sudden cardiac deaths. By Cox regression analysis, QRS-T angle ?75° significantly associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 2.99; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 6.82) and sudden cardiac death (hazard ratio, 4.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.17 to 17.40) after multivariable adjustment for demographic, cardiovascular, and dialysis factors. Abnormal signal-averaged electrocardiogram measures did not associate with mortality. In conclusion, spatial QRS-T angle but not abnormal signal-averaged electrocardiogram significantly associates with cardiovascular mortality and sudden cardiac death independent of traditional risk factors in patients starting hemodialysis.
Project description:Patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) have a high rate of mortality and specifically an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Impaired cardiac autonomic tone is associated with elevated risk of SCD. Moreover, patients with ESKD are often vitamin D deficient, which we have shown may be linked to autonomic dysfunction in humans. To date, it is not known whether vitamin D supplementation normalizes cardiac autonomic function in the high-risk ESKD population. The VITamin D supplementation and cardiac Autonomic tone in Hemodialysis (VITAH) randomized trial will determine whether intensive vitamin D supplementation therapies improve cardiac autonomic tone to a greater extent than conventional vitamin D supplementation regimens in ESKD patients requiring chronic hemodialysis.A total of 60 subjects with ESKD requiring thrice weekly chronic hemodialysis will be enrolled in this 2x2 crossover, blinded, randomized controlled trial. Following a 4-week washout period from any prior vitamin D therapy, subjects are randomized 1:1 to intensive versus standard vitamin D therapy for 6 weeks, followed by a 12-week washout period, and finally the remaining treatment arm for 6 weeks. Intensive vitamin D treatment includes alfacalcidiol (activated vitamin D) 0.25 mcg orally with each dialysis session combined with ergocalciferol (nutritional vitamin D) 50 000 IU orally once per week and placebo the remaining two dialysis days for 6 weeks. The standard vitamin D treatment includes alfacalcidiol 0.25 mcg orally combined with placebo each dialysis session per week for 6 weeks. Cardiac autonomic tone is measured via 24 h Holter monitor assessments on the first dialysis day of the week every 6 weeks throughout the study period. The primary outcome is change in the low frequency: high frequency heart rate variability (HRV) ratio during the first 12 h of the Holter recording at 6 weeks versus baseline. Secondary outcomes include additional measures of HRV. The safety of intensive versus conventional vitamin D supplementation is also assessed.VITAH will determine whether an intensive vitamin D supplementation regimen will improve cardiac autonomic tone compared to conventional vitamin D supplementation and will assess the safety of these two supplementation regimens in ESKD patients receiving chronic hemodialysis.ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01774812.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Sudden cardiac death is one of the primary causes of mortality in chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients. Prolonged QTc interval is associated with increased rate of sudden cardiac death. The aim of this article is to assess the abnormalities found in electrocardiograms (ECGs), and to explore factors that can influence the QTc interval. METHODS:A total of 141 conventional HD patients were enrolled in this study. ECG tests were conducted on each patient before a single dialysis session and 15 minutes before the end of dialysis session (at peak stress). Echocardiography tests were conducted before dialysis session began. Blood samples were drawn by phlebotomy immediately before and after the dialysis session. RESULTS:Before dialysis, 93.62% of the patients were in sinus rhythm, and approximately 65% of the patients showed a prolonged QTc interval (i.e., a QTc interval above 440 ms in males and above 460ms in females). A comparison of ECG parameters before dialysis and at peak stress showed increases in heart rate (77.45±11.92 vs. 80.38±14.65 bpm, p = 0.001) and QTc interval (460.05±24.53 ms vs. 470.93±24.92 ms, p<0.001). After dividing patients into two groups according to the QTc interval, lower pre-dialysis serum concentrations of potassium (K+), calcium (Ca2+), phosphorus, calcium* phosphorus (Ca*P), and higher concentrations of plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) were found in the group with prolonged QTc intervals. Patients in this group also had a larger left atrial diameter (LAD) and a thicker interventricular septum, and they tended to be older than patients in the other group. Then patients were divided into two groups according to ?QTc (?QTc = QTc peak-stress- QTc pre-HD). When analyzing the patients whose QTc intervals were longer at peak stress than before HD, we found that they had higher concentrations of Ca2+ and P5+ and lower concentrations of K+, ferritin, UA, and BNP. They were also more likely to be female. In addition, more cardiac construction abnormalities were found in this group. In multiple regression analyses, serum Ca2+ concentration before HD and LAD were independent variables of QTc interval prolongation. UA, ferritin, and interventricular septum were independent variables of ?QTc. CONCLUSION:Prolonged QT interval is very common in HD patients and is associated with several risk factors. An appropriate concentration of dialysate electrolytes should be chosen depending on patients' clinical conditions.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The extension of the interdialytic interval due to due to dialysis session non-attendance varies according to which session of the week the patient misses. The impact of this on subsequent hospitalization and mortality is unknown. METHODS:The ARO cohort study prospectively collected data from hemodialysis patients across 15 European countries on demography, comorbidity, laboratory, hospitalisation, mortality and individual hemodialysis sessions from 2007 to 2014. Event rates for death and hospitalisation according to dialysis day of the week were calculated for patients who attended the three previous scheduled hemodialysis sessions, who then on the next scheduled dialysis day either attended or did not attend. The hazard ratio for these events following non-attendance for the first compared to the second dialysis session of the week was estimated using Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for patient demographics. RESULTS:3.8 million hemodialysis sessions in 9397 patients were analysed. The non-attendance rates for Monday/Wednesday/Friday sessions were 0.8, 0.9% & 1.4% respectively, and for Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday sessions were 0.6, 1.0% & 1.2% respectively. Compared to those who attended, for the 48-72?h between non-attendance and the next scheduled haemodialysis session, mortality significantly increased from 4.86 to 51.9/100?pt-yrs and hospitalisation increased from 0.58 to 2.1/yr. As time from the two-day break increased, the risk associated with non-attendance lessened: compared to missing the second hemodialysis session, missing the first session had a hazard ratio for mortality of 2.04 (95% CI 1.27-3.29), and for hospitalisation 1.78 (95% CI 1.29-2.47). In patients who attended their scheduled dialysis session and the three preceding, after the two-day break there were absolute increases in mortality (8.3 vs. 4.9/100?pt-yrs) and hospitalisation (1.0 vs. 0.6/yr for the rest of the week) comparable to previous studies. CONCLUSIONS:In addition to hospitalisation and mortality increases seen after the two-day break, additional harm may be manifested in the greater increases in mortality and hospitalisation observed after non-attendance for the first hemodialysis session after the two-day break compared to missing other sessions.
Project description:There is an association between hemodialysis session length and mortality independent of the effects of session duration on urea clearance. However, previous studies did not consider changes in session length over time nor did they control for the influence of time-dependent confounding. Using data from a national cohort of 8552 incident patients on thrice-weekly, in-center hemodialysis, we applied marginal structural analysis to determine the association between session length and mortality. Exposure was based on prescribed session length with the outcome being death from any cause. On the 31st day after initiating dialysis, the patients were considered at-risk and remained so until death, censoring, or completion of 1 year on dialysis. On primary marginal structural analysis, session lengths <4 h were associated with a 42% increase in mortality. Sensitivity analyses showed a dose-response relationship between session duration and mortality, and a consistency of findings across prespecified subgroups. Our study suggests that shorter hemodialysis sessions are associated with higher mortality when marginal structural analysis was used to adjust for time-dependent confounding. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and determine causality.
Project description:Valuable information about cardiovascular system can be derived from the shape of aortic pulse wave being the result of reciprocal interaction between heart and vasculature. Pressure profiles in ascending aorta were obtained from peripheral waveforms recorded non-invasively (SphygmoCor, AtCor Medical, Australia) before, during and after hemodialysis sessions performed after 3-day and 2-day interdialytic intervals in 35 anuric, prevalent hemodialysis patients. Fluid status was assessed by Body Composition Monitor (Fresenius Medical Care, Bad Homburg, Germany) and online hematocrit monitoring device (CritLine, HemaMetrics, Utah). Systolic pressure and ejection duration decreased during dialysis. Augmentation index remained stable at 30 ± 13% throughout hemodialysis session despite the decrease of augmented pressure and pulse height. Subendocardial viability ratio (SEVR) determined after 3-day and 2-day interdialytic intervals increased during the sessions by 43.8 ± 26.6% and 26.1 ± 25.4%, respectively. Hemodialysis performed after 3-day and 2-day interdialytic periods reduced significantly overhydration by 2.4 ± 1.0 L and 1.8 ± 1.2 L and blood volume by 16.3 ± 9.7% and 13.7 ± 8.9%, respectively. Intradialytic increase of SEVR correlated with ultrafiltration rate (R = 0.39, p-value < 0.01), reduction in overhydration (R = -0.57, p-value < 0.001) and blood volume drop (R = -0.38, p-value < 0.01). The strong correlation between the decrease of overhydration during hemodialysis and increase in SEVR confirmed that careful fluid management is crucial for proper cardiac function. Hemodialysis affected cardiovascular system with the parameters derived from pulse-wave-analysis (systolic and augmented pressures, pulse height, ejection duration, SEVR) being significantly different at the end of dialysis from those before the session. Combination of pulse-wave-analysis with the monitoring of overhydration provides a new insight into the impact of hemodialysis on cardiovascular system.
Project description:Cardiovascular disease causes over 50% of the deaths in dialysis patients, and the risk of death is higher in white than in black patients. The underlying mechanisms for these findings are unknown. We determined the association of the proatherogenic metabolite trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) with cardiovascular outcomes in hemodialysis patients and assessed whether this association differs by race. We measured TMAO in stored serum samples obtained 3-6 months after randomization from a total of 1232 white and black patients of the Hemodialysis Study, and analyzed the association of TMAO with cardiovascular outcomes using Cox models adjusted for potential confounders (demographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, albumin, and residual kidney function). Mean age of the patients was 58 years; 35% of patients were white. TMAO concentration did not differ between whites and blacks. In whites, 2-fold higher TMAO associated with higher risk (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) of cardiac death (1.45 [1.24 to 1.69]), sudden cardiac death [1.70 (1.34 to 2.15)], first cardiovascular event (1.15 [1.01 to 1.32]), and any-cause death (1.22 [1.09 to 1.36]). In blacks, the association was nonlinear and significant only for cardiac death among patients with TMAO concentrations below the median (1.58 [1.03 to 2.44]). Compared with blacks in the same quintile, whites in the highest quintile for TMAO (?135 ?M) had a 4-fold higher risk of cardiac or sudden cardiac death and a 2-fold higher risk of any-cause death. We conclude that TMAO concentration associates with cardiovascular events in hemodialysis patients but the effects differ by race.