The potential effects of tobacco control in China: projections from the China SimSmoke simulation model.
ABSTRACT: To use a computer simulation model to project the potential impact in China of tobacco control measures on smoking, as recommended by the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), being fully implemented.Modelling study.China.Males and females aged 15-74 years.Incremental impact of more complete implementation of WHO FCTC policies simulated using SimSmoke, a Markov computer simulation model of tobacco smoking prevalence, smoking attributable deaths, and the impact of tobacco control policies. Data on China's adult population, current and former smoking prevalence, initiation and cessation rates, and past policy levels were entered into SimSmoke in order to predict past smoking rates and to project future status quo rates. The model was validated by comparing predicted smoking prevalence with smoking prevalence measured in tobacco surveys from 1996-2010.Projected future smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths from 2013-50.Status quo tobacco policy simulations projected a decline in smoking prevalence from 51.3% in 2015 to 46.5% by 2050 in males and from 2.1% to 1.3% in females. Of the individual FCTC recommended tobacco control policies, increasing the tobacco excise tax to 75% of the retail price was projected to be the most effective, incrementally reducing current smoking compared with the status quo by 12.9% by 2050. Complete and simultaneous implementation of all FCTC policies was projected to incrementally reduce smoking by about 40% relative to the 2050 status quo levels and to prevent approximately 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths and 154 million life years lost by 2050.Complete implementation of WHO FCTC recommended policies would prevent more than 12.8 million smoking attributable deaths in China by 2050. Implementation of FCTC policies would alleviate a substantial portion of the tobacco related health burden that threatens to slow China's extraordinary gains in life expectancy and prosperity.
Project description:Russia has high smoking rates and weak tobacco control policies. A simulation model is used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies on past and future smoking prevalence and premature mortality in Russia.The Russia model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control model previously developed for the USA and other nations. The model inputs population size, birth, death and smoking rates specific to Russia. It assesses, individually and in combination, the effect of seven types of policies consistent with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC): taxes, smoke-free air, mass media campaign, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment and youth access policies. Outcomes are smoking prevalence and the number of smoking-attributable deaths by age and gender from 2009 to 2055.Increasing cigarette taxes to 70% of retail price, stronger smoke-free air laws, a high-intensity media campaign and comprehensive treatment policies are each potent policies to reduce smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable premature deaths in Russia. With the stronger set of policies, the model estimates that, relative to the status quo trend, smoking prevalence can be reduced by as much as 30% by 2020, with a 50% reduction projected by 2055. This translates into 2?684?994 male and 1?011?985 female premature deaths averted from 2015-2055.SimSmoke results highlight the relative contribution of policies to reducing the tobacco health burden in Russia. Significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through strengthening tobacco control policies in line with FCTC recommendations.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:This study estimates the impact of tobacco control policies implemented between 1998 and 2016 on smoking prevalence reduction in Ireland by 2016. It then assesses the potential of further strong policies, relative to a scenario of inaction, to see if Tobacco Free Ireland 2025 is feasible. METHODS:SimSmoke, the dynamic simulation model of tobacco control policy, was adapted to examine the impact of Irish tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence, through initiation and cessation, and smoking-attributable deaths and to make predictions for the future. RESULTS:Between 1998 and 2016, the model prediction of smoking prevalence is reasonably close to those from several surveys. As a result of policies implemented in this period, the smoking rate was reduced by 42% from 32.2% in 1998 to 18.7% in 2016. If tobacco control policies remain unchanged from their 2016 levels, smoking prevalence is projected to be 15.8% in 2025. With the introduction of stricter MPOWER-compliant policies in 2017, the smoking prevalence could be reduced to 12.4% in 2025. CONCLUSIONS:Predictions from the SimSmoke Ireland model confirm that the policies implemented between 1998 and 2016 have had a considerable effect. In addition, implementing policies fully compliant with MPOWER could further reduce the smoking prevalence afterwards. However, even under the stricter MPOWER-compliant policies, there is still a gap between the predicted rate in 2025 and the Tobacco Free Ireland target of 5%. Therefore, new policies going beyond MPOWER are needed.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:A previous Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco control policy model is extended to more recent years and to include smokeless tobacco use. METHODS:Using data from the 1993 Tobacco Use Supplement and information on state policies, the Minnesota SimSmoke model was updated and extended to incorporate smokeless tobacco (both exclusive and dual use) and smokeless tobacco-attributable deaths. The model was then validated against the 2002, 2006/2007, and 2014/2015 Tobacco Use Supplement and the 1999, 2007, 2014, and 2018 Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey and used to estimate the impact of policies implemented between 1993 and 2018. Analysis was conducted in April 2019. RESULTS:The model validated well for cigarette and earlier smokeless tobacco use, but it predicted smokeless tobacco use less well in recent years. The model projected that male (female) smoking prevalence was 35% (36%) lower in relative terms by 2018 and 43% (44%) lower by 2040 owing to policies, with lesser reductions projected for male smokeless tobacco use. Tobacco-attributable deaths were reduced by 7,800 by 2018 and 46,900 by 2040. Price increases, primarily through taxes, were projected to have had the greatest impact on cigarette use followed by smoke-free air laws, cessation treatment policies, tobacco control campaign expenditures, and youth access enforcement. Similar effects were projected for smokeless tobacco use, except that smoke-free air laws had smaller effects. CONCLUSIONS:As cigarettes remain the dominant form of nicotine delivery product, cigarette-oriented policies may be an effective means of reducing the use of all nicotine delivery products. However, noncigarette-oriented policies may also play an important role.
Project description:Brazil has reduced its smoking rate by about 50% in the last 20 y. During that time period, strong tobacco control policies were implemented. This paper estimates the effect of these stricter policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality, and the effect that additional policies may have.The model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control policy model. Using policy, population, and smoking data for Brazil, the model assesses the effect on premature deaths of cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, marketing restrictions, packaging requirements, cessation treatment programs, and youth access restrictions. We estimate the effect of past policies relative to a counterfactual of policies kept to 1989 levels, and the effect of stricter future policies. Male and female smoking prevalence in Brazil have fallen by about half since 1989, which represents a 46% (lower and upper bounds: 28%-66%) relative reduction compared to the 2010 prevalence under the counterfactual scenario of policies held to 1989 levels. Almost half of that 46% reduction is explained by price increases, 14% by smoke-free air laws, 14% by marketing restrictions, 8% by health warnings, 6% by mass media campaigns, and 10% by cessation treatment programs. As a result of the past policies, a total of almost 420,000 (260,000-715,000) deaths had been averted by 2010, increasing to almost 7 million (4.5 million-10.3 million) deaths projected by 2050. Comparing future implementation of a set of stricter policies to a scenario with 2010 policies held constant, smoking prevalence by 2050 could be reduced by another 39% (29%-54%), and 1.3 million (0.9 million-2.0 million) out of 9 million future premature deaths could be averted.Brazil provides one of the outstanding public health success stories in reducing deaths due to smoking, and serves as a model for other low and middle income nations. However, a set of stricter policies could further reduce smoking and save many additional lives. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
Project description:Almost 20% of people smoke tobacco worldwide--a percentage projected to rise in many poor countries. Smoking has been linked to increased individual risk of tuberculosis infection and mortality, but it remains unclear how these risks affect population-wide tuberculosis rates.We constructed a state transition, compartmental, mathematical model of tuberculosis epidemics to estimate the impact of alternative future smoking trends on tuberculosis control. We projected tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality in each World Health Organization region from 2010 to 2050, and incorporated changing trends in smoking, case detection, treatment success, and HIV prevalence.The model predicted that smoking would produce an excess of 18 million tuberculosis cases (standard error 16-20) and 40 million deaths from tuberculosis (39-41) between 2010 and 2050, if smoking trends continued along current trajectories. The effect of smoking was anticipated to increase the number of tuberculosis cases by 7% (274 million v 256 million) and deaths by 66% (101 million v 61 million), compared with model predictions that did not account for smoking. Smoking was also expected to delay the millennium development goal target to reduce tuberculosis mortality by half from 1990 to 2015. The model estimated that aggressive tobacco control (achieving a 1% decrease in smoking prevalence per year down to eradication) would avert 27 million smoking attributable deaths from tuberculosis by 2050. However, if the prevalence of smoking increased to 50% of adults (as observed in countries with high tobacco use), the model estimated that 34 million additional deaths from tuberculosis would occur by 2050.Tobacco smoking could substantially increase tuberculosis cases and deaths worldwide in coming years, undermining progress towards tuberculosis mortality targets. Aggressive tobacco control could avert millions of deaths from tuberculosis.
Project description:Our objective was to describe the prevalence and changes in tobacco use and tobacco control policies in Latin American countries and cities before and after ratification of the 2003 Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Country-level tobacco policy data came from reports on the global tobacco epidemic (World Health Organization, 2007-2014). Global Youth Tobacco Survey data, 2000-2011, came from six countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru), 31 cities and 132,065 students. Pre- and post-FCTC prevalence and relative changes were estimated. All countries showed improvements in tobacco control policies but Mexico and Peru showed the smallest improvements. In general, adolescents reduced their tobacco use, reported less exposure to smoking at home, more tobacco education, and more retailer refusals to sell them cigarettes. Adolescents reported smaller reductions in secondhand smoke exposure outside the home and no change in exposure to tobacco media/promotions. Pre-FCTC prevalence and relative changes during the post-FCTC period were more heterogeneous across cities than across countries. Despite overall improvements in tobacco policies and the decline in exposure to tobacco, policies related to media/promotions and secondhand smoke need strengthening. There was wide variation in adolescent exposure to tobacco between cities (within countries), which suggested major heterogeneity of policy implementation at the local level.
Project description:BACKGROUND:One of the major obstacles to the full implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC) tobacco control measures is the lack of sustainable financing resources. GOAL:To update and simulate country-specific indicators that are highly relevant to the costs and financial resources of the treaty policy implementation. We also developed an Excel tool for simulation and assessed the aggregated-level indicators by the 2016 World Bank income groups. APPROACHES:Using mostly 2016 data or 2014-15 data if 2016 one are not available, we updated five indicators relevant to the treaty implementation, which are the gap between current and desirable policy implementation, cigarette affordability, the costs of implementing best- buy tobacco control policies, the number of smoking-attributable deaths, and the simulated tax revenue resulting from a $1 tax increase. We also aggregated indicators and simulation results by the World Bank income groups, encompassing the five indicators and the reduction in smoking and in attributable deaths due to a hypothetical 1I$ tax increase. Finally, the policy implementation cost was compared with tax revenue and revenue increases. FINDINGS:As of 2016, smoking remains one of the leading causes of premature deaths worldwide while the implementation of best-buy tobacco control policies was below the recommended levels. Meanwhile, there was room to further increase cigarette taxes and prices, as cigarettes remained affordable in many countries. The total costs of implementing best-buy policies in the next 15 years merely account for 8.3% of the 2016 excise tax revenue, indicating that a small proportion of annual tax revenue could fund the implementation of tobacco control policies recommended by the WHO FCTC. CONCLUSIONS:Increasing taxes could have a multiplier impact on curbing tobacco use through aiding the implementation of the WHO FCTC.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:This review aims to clarify the status and future directions of comprehensive tobacco control policies for the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games based on a comparison with seventeen countries that hosted the Olympic Games. METHODS:Seventeen countries that hosted the Olympic Games from 1988 to 2018 were identified by searching the website of IOC. A comparison of the contents was carried out by six themes (Monitor, Protect, Offer, Warn, Enforcement and Raise) in accordance with the MPOWER package for implementation of the FCTC. The comparison items and data were obtained from Global Health Observatory (GHO) data, Japanese government websites, and the literature. Based on the MPOWER scale, the 17 countries were ranked by total score, and a correlation between smoking prevalence and MPOWER total scores was established. RESULTS:The following three results were clarified: 1) Compared to the 17 countries that hosted the Olympic Games, smoking prevalence in Japan at 22.5% is at a moderate level and male smoking prevalence (33.7%) is still higher than other developed countries such as UK (24.7%) and Australia (16.5%); 2) Japanese tobacco control policies were far behind other countries that hosted the Olympic Games, especially in protecting people from tobacco smoke, warning about the dangers of tobacco, anti-tobacco mass media campaigns and enforcing bans on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship; and 3) The better practice in MPOWER was able to reduce total and male smoking prevalence in the study countries. CONCLUSIONS:Japanese tobacco control policies are far behind other countries that hosted the Olympic Games. In order to successfully hold the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, it will be necessary to strengthen tobacco control policies, based on the FCTC, in the future.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:We extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:A web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant public health problem in Canadian Inuit communities. In 2016, Canadian Inuit had an incidence rate 35 times the Canadian average. Tobacco use is an important risk factor for TB, and over 60% of Inuit adults smoke. We aimed to estimate changes in TB-related outcomes and costs from reducing tobacco use in Inuit communities. METHODS:Using a transmission model to estimate the initial prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI), followed by decision analysis modelling, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis that compared the current standard of care for management of TB and LTBI without additional tobacco reduction intervention (Status Quo) with (1) increased tobacco taxation, (2) pharmacotherapy and counselling for smoking cessation, (3) pharmacotherapy, counselling plus mass media campaign, and (4) the combination of all these. Projected outcomes included the following: TB cases, TB-related deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and health system costs, all over 20?years. RESULTS:The combined strategy was projected to reduce active TB cases by 6.1% (95% uncertainty range 4.9-7.0%) and TB deaths by 10.4% (9.5-11.4%) over 20?years, relative to the status quo. Increased taxation was the only cost-saving strategy. CONCLUSIONS:Currently available strategies to reduce commercial tobacco use will likely have a modest impact on TB-related outcomes in the medium term, but some may be cost saving.