Modeling and calibration for exposure to time-varying, modifiable risk factors: the example of smoking behavior in India.
ABSTRACT: Risk factors increase the incidence and severity of chronic disease. To examine future trends and develop policies addressing chronic diseases, it is important to capture the relationship between exposure and disease development, which is challenging given limited data.To develop parsimonious risk factor models embeddable in chronic disease models, which are useful when longitudinal data are unavailable.The model structures encode relevant features of risk factors (e.g., time-varying, modifiable) and can be embedded in chronic disease models. Calibration captures time-varying exposures for the risk factor models using available cross-sectional data. We illustrate feasibility with the policy-relevant example of smoking in India.The model is calibrated to the prevalence of male smoking in 12 Indian regions estimated from the 2009-2010 Indian Global Adult Tobacco Survey. Nelder-Mead searches (250,000 starting locations) identify distributions of starting, quitting, and restarting rates that minimize the difference between modeled and observed age-specific prevalence. We compare modeled life expectancies to estimates in the absence of time-varying risk exposures and consider gains from hypothetical smoking cessation programs delivered for 1 to 30 years.Calibration achieves concordance between modeled and observed outcomes. Probabilities of starting to smoke rise and fall with age, while quitting and restarting probabilities fall with age. Accounting for time-varying smoking exposures is important, as not doing so produces smaller estimates of life expectancy losses. Estimated impacts of smoking cessation programs delivered for different periods depend on the fact that people who have been induced to abstain from smoking longer are less likely to restart.The approach described is feasible for important risk factors for numerous chronic diseases. Incorporating exposure-change rates can improve modeled estimates of chronic disease outcomes and of the long-term effects of interventions targeting risk factors.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:Smoking as an epidemiological exposure can be quantified in many ways including duration, intensity, pack-years, recency, and age at initiation. However, it is not clear which of these are most important for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and how they should be modeled. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING:Using the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, Cox models for time to incident CVD adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education category, and income category were compared which included various characterizations of smoking history. RESULTS:Duration, age at starting, time since quitting, and noncigarette forms of smoking were not independently associated with CVD, whereas baseline current intensity was associated with CVD [e.g., hard CVD hazard ratio 1 pack/d of 1.85 95% confidence interval (1.33, 2.57)]. Former smokers, regardless of duration, intensity, or recency, were not at increased risk, suggesting that risk may risk may drop precipitously from the time of quitting. For CVD events, representing smoking exposure as baseline smoking intensity produced better model fit as measured by Akaike information criterion than models using smoking status or pack-years. CONCLUSION:The association of smoking with incident CVD events was well captured by including a simple term for baseline smoking intensity.
Project description:BACKGROUND: Smoking is a known cause of the outcomes COPD, chronic bronchitis (CB) and emphysema, but no previous systematic review exists. We summarize evidence for various smoking indices. METHODS: Based on MEDLINE searches and other sources we obtained papers published to 2006 describing epidemiological studies relating incidence or prevalence of these outcomes to smoking. Studies in children or adolescents, or in populations at high respiratory disease risk or with co-existing diseases were excluded. Study-specific data were extracted on design, exposures and outcomes considered, and confounder adjustment. For each outcome RRs/ORs and 95% CIs were extracted for ever, current and ex smoking and various dose response indices, and meta-analyses and meta-regressions conducted to determine how relationships were modified by various study and RR characteristics. RESULTS: Of 218 studies identified, 133 provide data for COPD, 101 for CB and 28 for emphysema. RR estimates are markedly heterogeneous. Based on random-effects meta-analyses of most-adjusted RR/ORs, estimates are elevated for ever smoking (COPD 2.89, CI 2.63-3.17, n = 129 RRs; CB 2.69, 2.50-2.90, n = 114; emphysema 4.51, 3.38-6.02, n = 28), current smoking (COPD 3.51, 3.08-3.99; CB 3.41, 3.13-3.72; emphysema 4.87, 2.83-8.41) and ex smoking (COPD 2.35, 2.11-2.63; CB 1.63, 1.50-1.78; emphysema 3.52, 2.51-4.94). For COPD, RRs are higher for males, for studies conducted in North America, for cigarette smoking rather than any product smoking, and where the unexposed base is never smoking any product, and are markedly lower when asthma is included in the COPD definition. Variations by sex, continent, smoking product and unexposed group are in the same direction for CB, but less clearly demonstrated. For all outcomes RRs are higher when based on mortality, and for COPD are markedly lower when based on lung function. For all outcomes, risk increases with amount smoked and pack-years. Limited data show risk decreases with increasing starting age for COPD and CB and with increasing quitting duration for COPD. No clear relationship is seen with duration of smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm and quantify the causal relationships with smoking.
Project description:Genome-wide association studies identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) cluster as a risk factor for nicotine dependency and COPD. We investigated whether SNPs in the nAChR cluster are associated with smoking habits and lung function decline, and if these potential associations are independent of each other. The SNPs rs569207, rs1051730 and rs8034191 in the nAChR cluster were analyzed in the Vlagtwedde-Vlaardingen cohort (n = 1,390) that was followed for 25 years. We used GEE and LME models to analyze the associations of the SNPs with quitting or restarting smoking and with the annual FEV(1) decline respectively. Individuals homozygote (CC) for rs569207 were more likely to quit smoking (OR (95%CI) = 1.58 (1.05-2.38)) compared to wild-type (TT) individuals. Individuals homozygote (TT) for rs1051730 were less likely to quit smoking (0.64 (0.42; 0.97)) compared to wild-type (CC) individuals. None of the SNPs was significantly associated with the annual FEV(1) decline in smokers and ex-smokers. We show that SNPs in the nAChR region are associated with smoking habits such as quitting smoking, but have no significant effect on the annual FEV(1) decline in smokers and ex-smokers, suggesting a potential role of these SNPs in COPD development via smoking habits rather than via direct effects on lung function.
Project description:Rationale: Even after quitting smoking, the risk of the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer remains significantly higher compared to never-smokers. Objectives: Based on the knowledge that COPD and most lung cancers start in the small airway epithelium (SAE), we hypothesized that smoking modulates miRNA expression in the SAE linked to the pathogenesis of smoking-induced airway disease, and that some of these changes persist after smoking cessation. Methods: SAE was collected from 10th to 12th order bronchi using fiberoptic bronchoscopy. Affymetrix miRNA 2.0 arrays were used to assess miRNA expression in the SAE from 10 healthy never-smokers and 10 healthy smokers, before and after they quit for 3 months. Smoking status was determined by urine nicotine and cotinine measurement. Results: There were significant differences in the expression of 34 miRNAs between healthy smokers and healthy never-smokers (p<0.01, fold-change >1.5), with functions associated with lung development, airway epithelium differentiation, inflammation and cancer. After quitting smoking for 3 months, 12 out of the 34 miRNAs did not return to normal levels, with Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway the top enriched pathway of the target genes of the persistent deregulated miRNAs. Conclusions: In the context that many of these persistent smoking-dependent miRNAs are associated with differentiation, inflammation diseases or lung cancer, it is likely that persistent smoking-related changes in small airway epithelium miRNAs play a role in the subsequent development of these disorders. MicroRNA profiling identified 34 miRNAs up-regulated by cigarette smoking in human small airway epithelium. Even after quitting smoking for 3 months, 12 miRNAs didn’t return to normal level.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Concerns about the adverse effects of smoking cessation on alcohol use and mental health are a barrier to cessation for smokers with serious mental illness (SMI). The purpose of this study is to examine how incident smoking cessation affects binge drinking and symptoms of depression and anxiety among smokers with SMI. METHODS:The present study is a secondary analysis of the OPTIN trial, which demonstrated the effectiveness of proactive outreach for smoking cessation among Minnesota Health Care Programs enrollees. Participants with ICD-9 codes indicating schizophrenia spectrum disorders, psychotic disorders, bipolar disorders, or severe/recurrent major depressive disorder were categorized as having SMI (n?=?939); remaining smokers were categorized as non-SMI (n?=?1382). Multivariable regressions modeled the association between incident smoking cessation and binge drinking, PHQ-2 depression scores, and PROMIS anxiety scores in the two groups. RESULTS:Quitting smoking was not associated with binge drinking among those with SMI, but was associated with less binge drinking among those without SMI (p?=?0.033). Quitting smoking was not associated with PHQ-2 depression scores among those with or without SMI. However, quitting smoking was associated with lower mean PROMIS anxiety scores for those with SMI (p?=?0.031), but not those without SMI. CONCLUSION:Quitting smoking was not associated with heightened binge drinking or symptoms of depression and anxiety among smokers with SMI. These findings suggest that quitting smoking is not detrimental for these patients, and provide evidential support for facilitating access to cessation resources for patients with serious mental illness who smoke.
Project description:Considerable evidence suggests that cigarette smoking is associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). What is unclear, however, is the impact of quitting smoking on risk attenuation and whether other risk factors for CRC modify this association.We conducted a pooled analysis of eight studies, including 6,796 CRC cases and 7,770 controls, to evaluate the association between cigarette smoking history and CRC risk and to investigate potential effect modification by other risk factors.Current smokers [OR, 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11-1.43] and former smokers (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.09-1.27), relative to never smokers, showed higher risks of CRC. Former smokers remained at higher CRC risk, relative to never smokers, for up to about 25 years after quitting. The impact of time since quitting varied by cancer subsite: The excess risk due to smoking decreased immediately after quitting for proximal colon and rectal cancer but not until about 20 years post-quitting for distal colon cancer. Furthermore, we observed borderline statistically significant additive interactions between smoking status and body mass index [BMI; relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI]), 0.15; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.31; P = 0.06] and significant additive interaction between smoking status and fruit consumption (RERI, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.01-0.30; P = 0.04).CRC risk remained increased for about 25 years after quitting smoking, and the pattern of decline in risk varied by cancer subsite. BMI and fruit intake modified the risk associated with smoking.These results contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms through which smoking impacts CRC etiology.
Project description:Recent meta-analyses show that individuals with high risk variants in CHRNA5 on chromosome 15q25 are likely to develop lung cancer earlier than those with low-risk genotypes. The same high-risk genetic variants also predict nicotine dependence and delayed smoking cessation. It is unclear whether smoking cessation confers the same benefits in terms of lung cancer risk reduction for those who possess CHRNA5 risk variants versus those who do not.Meta-analyses examined the association between smoking cessation and lung cancer risk in 15 studies of individuals with European ancestry who possessed varying rs16969968 genotypes (N=12,690 ever smokers, including 6988 cases of lung cancer and 5702 controls) in the International Lung Cancer Consortium.Smoking cessation (former vs. current smokers) was associated with a lower likelihood of lung cancer (OR=0.48, 95%CI=0.30-0.75, p=0.0015). Among lung cancer patients, smoking cessation was associated with a 7-year delay in median age of lung cancer diagnosis (HR=0.68, 95%CI=0.61-0.77, p=4.9?10-10). The CHRNA5 rs16969968 risk genotype (AA) was associated with increased risk and earlier diagnosis for lung cancer, but the beneficial effects of smoking cessation were very similar in those with and without the risk genotype.We demonstrate that quitting smoking is highly beneficial in reducing lung cancer risks for smokers regardless of their CHRNA5 rs16969968 genetic risk status. Smokers with high-risk CHRNA5 genotypes, on average, can largely eliminate their elevated genetic risk for lung cancer by quitting smoking- cutting their risk of lung cancer in half and delaying its onset by 7years for those who develop it. These results: 1) underscore the potential value of smoking cessation for all smokers, 2) suggest that CHRNA5 rs16969968 genotype affects lung cancer diagnosis through its effects on smoking, and 3) have potential value for framing preventive interventions for those who smoke.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Short-term particulate air pollution exposure is associated with reduced heart rate variability (HRV), a risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, in many studies. Associations with sub-chronic or long-term exposures, however, have been sparsely investigated. We evaluated the effect of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC) exposures on HRV in an elderly cohort: the Normative Aging Study. METHODS:We measured power in high frequency (HF) and low frequency (LF), standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN), and the LF:HF ratio among participants from the Greater Boston area. Residential BC exposures for 540 men (1161 study visits, 2000-2011) were estimated using a spatio-temporal land use regression model, and residential PM2.5 exposures for 475 men (992 visits, 2003-2011) were modeled using a hybrid satellite based and land-use model. We evaluated associations between moving averages of sub-chronic (3-84 day) and long-term (1 year) pollutant exposure estimates and HRV parameters using linear mixed models. RESULTS:One-standard deviation increases in sub-chronic, but not long-term, BC were associated with reduced HF, LF, and SDNN and an increased LF:HF ratio (e.g., 28 day BC: -2.3% HF [95% CI:-4.6, -0.02]). Sub-chronic and long-term PM2.5 showed evidence of relations to an increased LF and LF:HF ratio (e.g., 1 year PM: 21.0% LF:HF [8.6, 34.8]), but not to HF or SDNN, though the effect estimates were very imprecise and mostly spanned the null. CONCLUSIONS:We observed some evidence of a relation between longer-term BC and PM2.5 exposures and changes in HRV in an elderly cohort. While previous studies focused on short-term air pollution exposures, our results suggest that longer-term exposures may influence cardiac autonomic function.
Project description:BACKGROUND: Smoking is a known lung cancer cause, but no detailed quantitative systematic review exists. We summarize evidence for various indices. METHODS: Papers published before 2000 describing epidemiological studies involving 100+ lung cancer cases were obtained from Medline and other sources. Studies were classified as principal, or subsidiary where cases overlapped with principal studies. Data were extracted on design, exposures, histological types and confounder adjustment. RRs/ORs and 95% CIs were extracted for ever, current and ex smoking of cigarettes, pipes and cigars and indices of cigarette type and dose-response. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions investigated how relationships varied by study and RR characteristics, mainly for outcomes exactly or closely equivalent to all lung cancer, squamous cell carcinoma ("squamous") and adenocarcinoma ("adeno"). RESULTS: 287 studies (20 subsidiary) were identified. Although RR estimates were markedly heterogeneous, the meta-analyses demonstrated a relationship of smoking with lung cancer risk, clearly seen for ever smoking (random-effects RR 5.50, CI 5.07-5.96) current smoking (8.43, 7.63-9.31), ex smoking (4.30, 3.93-4.71) and pipe/cigar only smoking (2.92, 2.38-3.57). It was stronger for squamous (current smoking RR 16.91, 13.14-21.76) than adeno (4.21, 3.32-5.34), and evident in both sexes (RRs somewhat higher in males), all continents (RRs highest for North America and lowest for Asia, particularly China), and both study types (RRs higher for prospective studies). Relationships were somewhat stronger in later starting and larger studies. RR estimates were similar in cigarette only and mixed smokers, and similar in smokers of pipes/cigars only, pipes only and cigars only. Exceptionally no increase in adeno risk was seen for pipe/cigar only smokers (0.93, 0.62-1.40). RRs were unrelated to mentholation, and higher for non-filter and handrolled cigarettes. RRs increased with amount smoked, duration, earlier starting age, tar level and fraction smoked and decreased with time quit. Relationships were strongest for small and squamous cell, intermediate for large cell and weakest for adenocarcinoma. Covariate-adjustment little affected RR estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The association of lung cancer with smoking is strong, evident for all lung cancer types, dose-related and insensitive to covariate-adjustment. This emphasises the causal nature of the relationship. Our results quantify the relationships more precisely than previously.
Project description:Genes involved in dopaminergic neurotransmission have been suggested as candidates for involvement in smoking behavior. We hypothesized that alleles associated with reduced dopaminergic neurotransmission would be more common in continuing smokers than among women who quit smoking.The study included 593 women aged 26-65 years who participated in a twelve month smoking cessation trial conducted in 1993-1994. Participants were contacted three years after the trial to obtain updated smoking history and biological specimens. Seven polymorphisms were assessed in genes involved in dopamine synthesis (tyrosine hydroxylase [TH]), receptor activation (dopamine receptors [DRD2, DRD3, DRD4]), reuptake (dopamine transporter [SLC6A3]), and metabolism (catechol-o-methyltransferase [COMT]). Smoking cessation was assessed as "short-term" quitting (abstinence for the seven days before the conclusion of the trial) and "long-term" quitting (abstinence for the six months before a subsequent interview conducted several years later).We observed no association of any polymorphism with either short- or long-term quitting. Although some relative risk estimates were consistent with weak associations, either the direction of effect was opposite of that hypothesized, or results of the short- and long-term cessation endpoints differed. However, effect modification on smoking cessation was observed between DRD2 Taq1A and SLC6A3 VNTR polymorphisms, DRD3 Ser/Gly and d,1-fenfluramine, and DRD4 VNTR and d,1-fenfluramine.Although these results fail to support prior findings of independent associations of these polymorphisms with smoking status, our exploratory findings suggestive of gene-gene and gene-treatment interactions warrants further investigation.