Twelve-single nucleotide polymorphism genetic risk score identifies individuals at increased risk for future atrial fibrillation and stroke.
ABSTRACT: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is prevalent and there is a clinical need for biomarkers to identify individuals at higher risk for AF. Fixed throughout a life course and assayable early in life, genetic biomarkers may meet this need. Here, we investigate whether multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms together as an AF genetic risk score (AF-GRS) can improve prediction of one's risk for AF.In 27 471 participants of the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study, a prospective, community-based cohort, we used Cox models that adjusted for established AF risk factors to assess the association of AF-GRS with incident AF and ischemic stroke. Median follow-up was 14.4 years for incident AF and 14.5 years for ischemic stroke. The AF-GRS comprised 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms that had been previously shown to be associated with AF at genome-wide significance.During follow-up, 2160 participants experienced a first AF event and 1495 had a first ischemic stroke event. Participants in the top AF-GRS quintile were at increased risk for incident AF (hazard ratio, 2.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.73-2.31; P=2.7×10(-21)) and ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.46; P=0.02) when compared with the bottom quintile. Addition of the AF-GRS to established AF risk factors modestly improved both discrimination and reclassification (P<0.0001 for both).An AF-GRS can identify 20% of individuals who are at ?2-fold increased risk for incident AF and at 23% increased risk for ischemic stroke. Targeting diagnostic or therapeutic interventions to this subset may prove clinically useful.
Project description:To determine the extent to which the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) increases in relation to a genetic risk score (GRS) that additively integrates the influence of high-risk alleles in nine documented single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for CHD, and to examine whether this GRS also predicts incident stroke.Genotypes at nine CHD-relevant SNPs were determined in 494 cases of incident CHD, 320 cases of incident stroke and 1345 unaffected controls drawn from the population-based Greek component of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort. An additive GRS was calculated for each study participant by adding one unit for the presence of each high-risk allele multiplied by the estimated effect size of that allele in the discovery samples. Statistical analysis was performed using logistic regression.The GRS was significantly associated with the incidence of CHD where the odds of CHD incidence in the highest quintile of the GRS were 1.74 times higher (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.25-2.43, p for trend=0.0004), compared to the lowest quintile. With respect to stroke, a weaker and non-significant positive association with GRS was apparent as the odds of stroke incidence in the highest quintile of the GRS were 1.36 times higher (95% CI=0.90-2.06, p for trend=0.188), compared to the lowest quintile.A GRS relying on nine documented "CHD-specific" SNPs is significantly predictive of CHD but it was not found to be statistically significantly associated with incident stroke.
Project description:<b>Background: </b>Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most commonly encountered arrhythmia and is associated with an elevated risk of stroke. Improving the identification of patients with the highest risk for AF to enable appropriate surveillance and treatment, if necessary, is critical to reducing AF-associated morbidity and mortality. Multiple common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are unequivocally associated with the lifetime risk of AF. In the current study we aimed to prospectively validate an AF genetic risk score (GRS) in previously undiagnosed patients at risk for AF.<br><br><b>Methods and findings: </b>Individuals 40 years of age or older with 1 clinical risk factor for AF, presenting with symptoms of AF, or with a first diagnosis of AF, were enrolled for genetic testing and ambulatory cardiac rhythm monitoring with an adhesive patch monitor or a long-term Holter monitor (mean wear time 10 days 21 hours and 13 days 18 hours, respectively). An AF event was the first diagnosis of AF by ECG, patch monitor, or long-term Holter monitor. The AF GRS was determined for each participant based on the weighted contribution of 12 genetic risk loci. Of 904 participants, 85 manifested AF. Their mean age was 66.2 (SD 11.8) years; 38% of participants were male. Participants in the highest quintile of AF GRS were more likely (odds ratio 3.11; 95% CI 1.27-7.58; p = 0.01) to have had an AF event than participants in the lowest quintile after adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, BMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and prior myocardial infarction. Study limitations included an ethnically homogenous population, a restricted rhythm monitoring period, and the evolving discovery of SNPs associated with AF.<br><br><b>Conclusions: </b>Prospective assessment of a GRS for AF identified participants with elevated risk of AF beyond established clinical criteria. Accordingly, a GRS for AF could be incorporated into overall risk assessment to better identify patients at the highest risk of developing AF, although further testing in larger populations is needed to confirm these findings.<br><br><b>Trial registration: </b>ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01970969.
Project description:In this prospective cohort of 4462 older adults, incident atrial fibrillation (AF) was not statistically significantly associated with subsequent risk of incident fracture.AF is associated with stroke, heart failure, dementia, and death, but its association with fracture is unknown. Therefore, we examined the association of incident AF with the risk of subsequent fracture in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) cohort.Of the CHS participants aged ?65 years, 4462 were followed between 1991 and 2009, mean follow-up 8.8 years. Incident AF was identified by annual study electrocardiogram (ECG), hospital discharge diagnosis codes, or Medicare claims. Fractures of the hip, distal forearm, humerus, or pelvis were identified using hospital discharge diagnosis codes or Medicare claims. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between incident AF (time-varying) and the risk of subsequent fracture. We also evaluated whether AF was associated with risk of sustaining a fall.Crude incident fracture rate was 22.9 per 1000 person-years in participants with AF and 17.7 per 1000 person-years in participants without AF. Individuals with incident AF were not at significantly higher risk of hip fracture (adjusted HR = 1.09, 95 % CI 0.83-1.42) or fracture at any selected site (adjusted HR = 0.97, 95 % CI 0.77-1.22) or risk of sustaining a fall (adjusted HR = 1.00, 95 % CI = 0.87-1.16) compared with those without AF.In this cohort of older, community-dwelling adults, incident AF was not shown to be associated with falls or hip or other fractures.
Project description:BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. METHODS:The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ?55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. RESULTS:In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: ?joint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: ?joint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). CONCLUSIONS:The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.
Project description:Emerging data suggest that left atrial disease may cause ischemic stroke in the absence of atrial fibrillation or flutter (AF). If true, this condition may provide a cause for many strokes currently classified as cryptogenic.Among 6741 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who were free of clinically apparent cerebrovascular or cardiovascular disease (including AF) at baseline, we examined the association between markers of left atrial abnormality on a standard 12-lead ECG-specifically P-wave area, duration, and terminal force in lead V1-and the subsequent risk of ischemic stroke while accounting for incident AF.During a median follow-up of 8.5 years, 121 participants (1.8%) had a stroke and 541 participants (8.0%) were diagnosed with AF. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential baseline confounders, P-wave terminal force in lead V1 was more strongly associated with incident stroke (hazard ratio per 1 SD increase, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.44) than with incident AF (hazard ratio per 1 SD, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.21). The association between P-wave terminal force in lead V1 and stroke was robust in numerous sensitivity analyses accounting for AF, including analyses that excluded those with any incident AF or modeled any incident AF as having been present from baseline.We found an association between baseline P-wave morphology and incident stroke even after accounting for AF. This association may reflect an atrial cardiopathy that leads to stroke in the absence of AF.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Pro-inflammatory processes underlie ischemic stroke, albeit it is largely unknown if they selectively associate with the risk of atherothrombotic or cardioembolic ischemic stroke. Here we analyze whether pro-inflammatory interleukin (IL) 6 trans-signaling, is associated with the risk of ischemic stroke and underlying atrial fibrillation (AF).<h4>Methods</h4>During a 20-year follow-up, 203 incident ischemic strokes were recorded from national registers in the cohort of 60-year-old men and women from Stockholm (n = 4232). The risk of ischemic stroke associated with circulating IL6 trans-signaling, assessed by a ratio between the pro-inflammatory binary IL6:sIL6R complex and the inactive ternary IL6:sIL6R:sgp130 complex (B/T ratio), was estimated by Cox regression and expressed as hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) in the presence or absence of AF. Risk estimates were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and anticoagulant treatment. In a secondary analysis, the association of IL6 trans-signaling with the risk of incident AF (n = 279) was analyzed.<h4>Results</h4>B/T ratio > median was associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke in study participants without AF (adjusted HR 1.49; 95% CI 1.08-2.06), while an association could not be demonstrated in the presence of AF. Moreover, the B/T ratio was not associated with the risk of AF (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.75-1.24).<h4>Conclusions</h4>Pro-inflammatory IL6 trans-signaling, estimated by the B/T ratio, is associated with ischemic stroke in individuals without AF. These findings suggest that the B/T ratio could be used to assess the risk of non-AF associated ischemic stroke.
Project description:BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:Low insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) has been associated with increased risk of atherosclerosis and atrial fibrillation in cross-sectional studies. Yet, prospective data linking IGF-1 levels to the development of ischemic stroke remain inconclusive. We examined prospectively the association between serum IGF-1 levels and incident ischemic stroke. METHODS:We measured serum IGF-1 levels in 757 elderly individuals (mean age 79±5, 62% women), free of prevalent stroke, from the Framingham original cohort participants at the 22nd examination cycle (1990-1994) and were followed up for the development of ischemic stroke. Cox models were used to relate IGF-1 levels to the risk for incident ischemic stroke, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS:During a mean follow-up of 10.2 years, 99 individuals developed ischemic stroke. After adjustment for age, sex, and potential confounders, higher IGF-1 levels were associated with a lower risk of incident ischemic stroke, with subjects in the lowest quintile of IGF-1 levels having a 2.3-fold higher risk of incident ischemic stroke (95% confidence interval, 1.09-5.06; P=0.03) as compared with those in the top quintile. We observed an effect modification by diabetes mellitus and waist-hip ratio for the association between IGF-1 and ischemic stroke (P<0.1). In subgroup analyses, the effects were restricted to subjects with diabetics and those in top waist-hip ratio quartile, in whom each standard deviation increase in IGF-1 was associated with a 61% (hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.78; P=0.007) and 41% (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.95; P=0.031) lower risk of incident ischemic stroke, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:IGF-1 levels were inversely associated with ischemic stroke, especially among persons with insulin resistance.
Project description:BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:Emerging evidence suggests that an underlying atrial cardiopathy may result in thromboembolism before atrial fibrillation (AF) develops. We examined the association between various markers of atrial cardiopathy and the risk of ischemic stroke. METHODS:The CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) prospectively enrolled community-dwelling adults ?65 years of age. For this study, we excluded participants diagnosed with stroke or AF before baseline. Exposures were several markers of atrial cardiopathy: baseline P-wave terminal force in ECG lead V1, left atrial dimension on echocardiogram, and N terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), as well as incident AF. Incident AF was ascertained from 12-lead electrocardiograms at annual study visits for the first decade after study enrollment and from inpatient and outpatient Medicare data throughout follow-up. The primary outcome was incident ischemic stroke. We used Cox proportional hazards models that included all 4 atrial cardiopathy markers along with adjustment for demographic characteristics and established vascular risk factors. RESULTS:Among 3723 participants who were free of stroke and AF at baseline and who had data on all atrial cardiopathy markers, 585 participants (15.7%) experienced an incident ischemic stroke during a median 12.9 years of follow-up. When all atrial cardiopathy markers were combined in 1 Cox model, we found significant associations with stroke for P-wave terminal force in ECG lead V1 (hazard ratio per 1000 ?V*ms 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.001-1.08), log-transformed NT-proBNP (hazard ratio per doubling of NT-proBNP, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.16), and incident AF (hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.67-2.48) but not left atrial dimension (hazard ratio per cm, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.10). CONCLUSIONS:In addition to clinically apparent AF, other evidence of abnormal atrial substrate is associated with subsequent ischemic stroke. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that thromboembolism from the left atrium may occur in the setting of several different manifestations of atrial disease.
Project description:Background and Purpose- Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a prothrombotic state, is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke. The CHA2DS2-VASc score does not account for the MetS components of prehypertension, prediabetes mellitus, abdominal obesity, elevated triglycerides, and low HDL (high-density lipoprotein). Data are limited on the association of MetS with stroke in AF, independent of CHA2DS2-VASc variables. Our aim was to identify MetS components associated with ischemic stroke in participants with AF in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities). Methods- We included 1172 participants with incident AF within 5 years of measurement of MetS components. MetS was defined by ATP criteria and International Diabetes Federation criteria. Incident ischemic stroke was physician adjudicated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association of MetS components with stroke. Results- After a median follow-up of 14.8 years, there were 113 ischemic stroke cases. Of the individual MetS components, low HDL was borderline associated with increased stroke risk (hazard ratio, 1.48 [95% CI, 0.99-2.21]) after adjustment for CHA2DS2-VASc variables while the remaining MetS variables were not associated with stroke risk. The presence of ?3 components of MetS was not significantly associated with ischemic stroke after adjustment for CHA2DS2-VASc variables (hazard ratio, 1.38 [95% CI, 0.91-2.11]). The risk of stroke increased by 13% for each additional component of MetS; however, this association was borderline significant (hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.99-1.28]). Conclusions- The presence of MetS was not significantly associated with ischemic stroke after adjustment for CHA2DS2-VASc variables. Consideration of MetS is unlikely to improve stroke prediction in AF.
Project description:Recent hospital-based cohort studies found the CHA2DS2-VASc score to be associated with ischemic stroke in individuals without atrial fibrillation (AF). Our aim was to determine the distribution of embolic and thrombotic strokes and association with the CHA2DS2-VASc score, among community-dwelling individuals without AF. We included participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study who attended visit 4 (1996 to 1998) and had no previous AF, stroke, or anticoagulant use (n?=?10,671). During follow-up through 2008, incident AF cases (n?=?760) and participants who started warfarin were censored. Incident AF was ascertained from study electrocardiograms and hospital discharge diagnosis codes, and stroke was physician-adjudicated. After 10 years of follow-up, 280 ischemic strokes were identified, of which 146 were thrombotic and 57 embolic. The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for thrombotic stroke were 1 (reference), 1.71 (1.13 to 2.59), 2.92 (1.91 to 4.45), 3.22 (1.70 to 6.11), and 1.25 (0.17 to 9.09), with CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 0 to 1, 2, 3, 4, and ?5, respectively. The hazard ratios (95% CI) for embolic stroke were 1 (ref), 4.91 (2.10 to 11.5), 7.07 (2.93 to 17.0), 14.8 (5.50 to 39.6), and 15.2 (3.16 to 73.3), with CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 0 to 1, 2, 3, 4, and ?5, respectively. A receiver-operating characteristic model had a C-statistic of 0.65 for ischemic stroke, 0.61 for thrombotic stroke, and 0.71 for embolic stroke. In conclusion, in community-dwelling individuals without AF, the CHA2DS2-VASc score can assess ischemic stroke risk and has good discriminatory capacity for embolic stroke.