Long-term trends in adult mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: an examination of period- and cohort-based changes.
ABSTRACT: Black-white differences in U.S. adult mortality have narrowed over the past five decades, but whether this narrowing unfolded on a period or cohort basis is unclear. The distinction has important implications for understanding the socioeconomic, public health, lifestyle, and medical mechanisms responsible for this narrowing. We use data from 1959 to 2009 and age-period-cohort (APC) models to examine period- and cohort-based changes in adult mortality for U.S. blacks and whites. We do so for all-cause mortality among persons aged 15-74 as well as for several underlying causes of death more pertinent for specific age groups. We find clear patterns of cohort-based reductions in mortality for both black men and women and white men and women. Recent cohort-based reductions in heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, female breast cancer, and other cancer mortality have been substantial and, save for breast cancer, have been especially pronounced for blacks. Period-based changes have also occurred and are especially pronounced for some causes of death. Period-based reductions in blacks' and whites' heart disease and stroke mortality are particularly impressive, as are recent period-based reductions in young men's and women's mortality from infectious diseases and homicide. These recent period changes are more pronounced among blacks. The substantial cohort-based trends in chronic disease mortality and recent period-based reductions for some causes of death suggest a continuing slow closure of the black-white mortality gap. However, we also uncover troubling signs of recent cohort-based increases in heart disease mortality for both blacks and whites.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>COVID-19 mortality disproportionately affects the Black population in the United States (US). To explore this association a cohort study was undertaken.<h4>Methods</h4>We assembled a cohort of 505,992 patients receiving ambulatory care at Bronx Montefiore Health System (BMHS) between 1/1/18 and 1/1/20 to evaluate the relative risk of hospitalization and death in two time-periods, the pre-COVID time-period (1/1/20-2/15/20) and COVID time-period (3/1/20-4/15/20). COVID testing, hospitalization and mortality were determined with the Black and Hispanic patient population compared separately to the White population using logistic modeling. Evaluation of the interaction of pre-COVID and COVID time periods and race, with respect to mortality was completed.<h4>Findings</h4>A total of 9,286/505,992 (1.8%) patients were hospitalized during either or both pre-COVID or COVID periods. Compared to Whites the relative risk of hospitalization of Black patients did not increase in the COVID period (p for interaction=0.12). In the pre- COVID period, compared to Whites, the odds of death for Blacks and Hispanics adjusted for comorbidity was statistically equivalent. In the COVID period compared to Whites the adjusted odds of death for Blacks was 1.6 (95% CI 1.2-2.0, <i>p</i> = 0.001). There was a significant increase in Black mortality risk from pre-COVID to COVID periods (p for interaction=0.02). Adjustment for relevant clinical and social indices attenuated but did not fully explain the observed difference in Black mortality.<h4>Interpretation</h4>The BMHS COVID experience demonstrates that Blacks do have a higher mortality with COVID incompletely explained by age, multiple reported comorbidities and available metrics of sociodemographic disparity.<h4>Funding</h4>N/A.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:In a large prospective cohort, we examined the relationship of body mass index (BMI) with mortality among blacks and compared the results to those among whites in this population. DESIGN AND METHODS:The study population consisted of 7,446 non-Hispanic black and 130,598 white participants, ages 49-78 at enrollment, in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. BMI at baseline, BMI at age 20, and BMI change were calculated using self-reported and recalled height and weight. Relative risks were stratified by race and sex and adjusted for age, education, marital status, and smoking. RESULTS:During follow-up, 1,495 black and 18,236 white participants died (mean = 13 years). Clear J-shaped associations between BMI and mortality were observed among white men and women. Among black men and women, the bottoms of these curves were flatter, and increasing risks of death with greater BMI were observed only at higher BMI levels (?35.0). Associations for BMI at age 20 and BMI change also appeared to be stronger in magnitude in whites versus blacks, and these racial differences appeared to be more pronounced among women. CONCLUSION:Our results suggest that BMI may be more weakly associated with mortality in blacks, particularly black women, than in whites.
Project description:Earlier studies reported inferior outcomes among black compared with white kidney transplant (KT) recipients. We examined whether this disparity improved in recent decades. Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and Cox regression models, we compared all-cause graft loss among 63,910 black and 145,482 white adults who received a first-time live donor KT (LDKT) or deceased donor KT (DDKT) in 1990-2012. Over this period, 5-year graft loss after DDKT improved from 51.4% to 30.6% for blacks and from 37.3% to 25.0% for whites; 5-year graft loss after LDKT improved from 37.4% to 22.2% for blacks and from 20.8% to 13.9% for whites. Among DDKT recipients in the earliest cohort, blacks were 39% more likely than whites to experience 5-year graft loss (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.32 to 1.47; P<0.001), but this disparity narrowed in the most recent cohort (aHR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.18; P=0.01). Among LDKT recipients in the earliest cohort, blacks were 53% more likely than whites to experience 5-year graft loss (aHR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.27 to 1.83; P<0.001), but this disparity also narrowed in the most recent cohort (aHR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.61; P<0.001). Analyses revealed no statistically significant differences in 1-year or 3-year graft loss after LDKT or DDKT in the most recent cohorts. Our findings of reduced disparities over the last 22 years driven by more markedly improved outcomes for blacks may encourage nephrologists and patients to aggressively promote access to transplantation in the black community.
Project description:Against the backdrop of late 20th century declines in heart disease mortality in the United States, race-specific rates diverged because of slower declines among blacks compared with whites. To characterize the temporal dynamics of emerging black-white racial disparities in heart disease mortality, we decomposed race-sex-specific trends in an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of US mortality data for all diseases of the heart among adults aged ?35 years from 1973 to 2010. The black-white gap was largest among adults aged 35-59 years (rate ratios ranged from 1.2 to 2.7 for men and from 2.3 to 4.0 for women) and widened with successive birth cohorts, particularly for men. APC model estimates suggested strong independent trends across generations ("cohort effects") but only modest period changes. Among men, cohort-specific black-white racial differences emerged in the 1920-1960 birth cohorts. The apparent strength of the cohort trends raises questions about life-course inequalities in the social and health environments experienced by blacks and whites which could have affected their biomedical and behavioral risk factors for heart disease. The APC results suggest that the genesis of racial disparities is neither static nor restricted to a single time scale such as age or period, and they support the importance of equity in life-course exposures for reducing racial disparities in heart disease.
Project description:BACKGROUND:In middle age, stroke incidence is higher among black than white Americans. For unknown reasons, this inequality decreases and reverses with age. We conducted simulations to evaluate whether selective survival could account for observed age patterning of black-white stroke inequalities. METHODS:We simulated birth cohorts of 20,000 blacks and 20,000 whites with survival distributions based on US life tables for the 1919-1921 birth cohort. We generated stroke incidence rates for ages 45-94 years using Reasons for Geographic and Racial Disparities in Stroke (REGARDS) study rates for whites and setting the effect of black race on stroke to incidence rate difference (IRD) = 20/10,000 person-years at all ages, the inequality observed at younger ages in REGARDS. We compared observed age-specific stroke incidence across scenarios, varying effects of U, representing unobserved factors influencing mortality and stroke risk. RESULTS:Despite a constant adverse effect of black race on stroke risk, the observed black-white inequality in stroke incidence attenuated at older age. When the hazard ratio for U on stroke was 1.5 for both blacks and whites, but U only directly influenced mortality for blacks (hazard ratio for U on mortality =1.5 for blacks; 1.0 for whites), stroke incidence rates in late life were lower among blacks (average observed IRD = -43/10,000 person-years at ages 85-94 years versus causal IRD = 20/10,000 person-years) and mirrored patterns observed in REGARDS. CONCLUSIONS:A relatively moderate unmeasured common cause of stroke and survival could fully account for observed age attenuation of racial inequalities in stroke.
Project description:<b>Background/objectives: </b>US-born non-Hispanic black persons (blacks) (12% of the US population) accounted for 41% of HIV diagnoses during 2008-2014. HIV infection significantly increases TB and TB-related mortality. TB rate ratios were 6 to 7 times as high in blacks versus US-born non-Hispanic whites (whites) during 2013-2016. We analyzed a sample of black and white TB patients to assess the impact of HIV infection on TB racial disparities.<br><br><b>Methods: </b>In total, 552 black and white TB patients with known HIV/AIDS status were recruited from 10 US sites in 2009-2010. We abstracted data from the National TB Surveillance System, medical records, and death certificates and interviewed 477 patients. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of TB with HIV infection, late HIV diagnosis (?3 months before or any time after TB diagnosis), and mortality during TB treatment.<br><br><b>Results: </b>Twenty-one percent of the sample had HIV/AIDS infection. Blacks (AOR = 3.4; 95% CI, 1.7-6.8) and persons with recent homelessness (AOR = 2.5; 95% CI, 1.5-4.3) had greater odds of HIV infection than others. The majority of HIV-infected/TB patients were diagnosed with HIV infection 3 months or less before (57%) or after (4%) TB diagnosis. Among HIV-infected/TB patients, blacks had similar percentages to whites (61% vs 57%) of late HIV diagnosis. Twenty-five percent of HIV-infected/TB patients died, 38% prior to TB diagnosis and 62% during TB treatment. Blacks did not have significantly greater odds of TB-related mortality than whites (AOR = 1.1; 95% CI, 0.6-2.1).<br><br><b>Conclusions: </b>Black TB patients had greater HIV prevalence than whites. While mortality was associated with HIV infection, it was not significantly associated with black or white race.
Project description:PURPOSE:The main purpose of this study was to determine whether there were temporal differences in the rates of first stroke hospitalizations and 30-day mortality after stroke between black and white Medicare enrollees. METHODS:We used a 20% sample of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older and described the annual rate of first hospitalization for ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes from years 1988 to 2013, as well as 30-day mortality after stroke hospitalization. We used linear tests of trend to determine whether stroke rates changed over time, and tested the interaction term between race and year to determine whether trends differed by race. RESULTS:We identified 1,009,057 incident hospitalizations for ischemic strokes and 147,817 for hemorrhagic strokes. Annual stroke hospitalizations decreased significantly over time for both blacks and whites, and in both stroke subtypes (P-values for all trend <0.001). Reductions in stroke rates were comparable between blacks and whites: among men, the odds ratio for the interaction term for race by year was 1.008 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.004-1.012] for ischemic and 1.002 (95% CI, 0.999-1.004) for hemorrhagic; for women, it was 1.000 (95% CI, 0.997-1.004) for ischemic and 1.003 (95% CI, 1.001-1.006) for hemorrhagic. Both black men and women experienced greater improvements over time in terms of 30-day mortality after strokes. CONCLUSIONS:Rates of incident hospitalizations for ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes fell significantly over a 25-year period for both black and white Medicare enrollees. Black men and women experienced greater improvements in 30-day mortality after both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke.
Project description:Evaluating breast cancer outcomes specific to Hispanics of different race (e.g. Hispanic Black, Hispanic White) may further explain variations in the burden of breast cancer among Hispanic women. Using data from the SEER 17 population-based registries, we evaluated the association between race/ethnicity and tumor stage, hormone receptor status, and breast cancer-specific mortality. The study cohort of 441,742 women, aged 20-79, who were diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer between January 1, 1992 and December 31, 2008, included 44,246 Hispanic whites, 622 Hispanic Blacks, 44,797 non-Hispanic Blacks and 352,077 non-Hispanic whites. Hispanic black, Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black women had a 1.5-2.5 fold greater risk of presenting with stage IV breast cancer compared to non-Hispanic whites. All groups were significantly more likely than non-Hispanic whites to be diagnosed with ER+/PR- (1.1-1.5 fold increase) or ER-/PR- (1.4-2.2 fold increase) breast cancer. Hispanic black, Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black women had a 10-50 % greater risk of breast cancer-specific mortality compared to non-Hispanic whites. Our findings underscore the breast cancer disparities that continue to exist for Hispanic and black women, overall, as well as between Hispanic women of different race. These disparities highlight the factors that may lead to the poor outcomes observed among Hispanic and black women diagnosed with breast cancer, and for which targeted strategies aimed at reducing breast cancer disparities could be developed.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To determine black-white differences in 1-year recurrent stroke and 30-day case fatality after a recurrent stroke in older US adults. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries with fee-for-service health insurance coverage who were hospitalized for ischemic stroke between 1999 and 2013. Hazard ratios for recurrent ischemic stroke and risk ratios for 30-day case fatality comparing blacks to whites were calculated with adjustment for demographics, risk factors, and competing risk of death when appropriate. RESULTS:Among 128,789 Medicare beneficiaries having an ischemic stroke (mean age 80 years [SD 8 years], 60.4% male), 11.1% were black. The incidence rate of recurrent ischemic stroke per 1,000 person-years for whites and blacks was 108 (95% confidence interval [CI], 106-111) and 154 (95% CI 147-162) , respectively. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for recurrent stroke among blacks compared with whites was 1.36 (95% CI 1.29-1.44). The case fatality after recurrent stroke for blacks and whites was 21% (95% CI 21%-22%) and 16% (95% CI 15%-18%), respectively. The multivariable-adjusted relative risk for mortality within 30 days of a recurrent stroke among blacks compared with whites was 0.82 (95% CI 0.73-0.93). CONCLUSION:The risk of stroke recurrence among older Americans hospitalized for ischemic stroke is higher for blacks compared to whites, while 30-day case fatality after recurrent stroke remains lower for blacks.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To determine the racial disparities in severe sepsis hospitalizations and outcomes in U.S. academic medical center-affiliated hospitals. DESIGN:Retrospective analysis of sepsis hospitalizations. SETTINGS:U.S. academic medical center-affiliated hospitals participating in Vizient Consortium from 2012 to 2014. PATIENTS:Sepsis hospitalizations using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, discharge diagnoses codes defined by the Angus method. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:We compared rates of sepsis hospitalization, ICU admission, organ dysfunction, and hospital mortality between blacks and whites. We repeated the analyses stratified by community-acquired, healthcare-associated, and hospital-acquired sepsis subtypes. Of 10,244,780 hospitalizations in our cohort, 1,114,386 (10.9%) had sepsis. Sepsis subtypes included community-acquired sepsis (61.8%), healthcare-associated sepsis (23.8%), and hospital-acquired sepsis (14.4%). Although the proportion of discharges with sepsis was lower for blacks than whites (106.72 vs 109.43 per 1,000 hospitalizations; p < 0.001), the proportion of black sepsis hospitalizations was higher for individuals greater than 30 years old. Blacks exhibited lower adjusted sepsis hospital mortality than whites (odds ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.84-0.86). The adjusted odds of hospital mortality following community-acquired, healthcare-associated, and hospital-acquired sepsis were lower for blacks than whites. CONCLUSIONS:In this current series of hospital discharges at U.S. academic medical center-affiliated hospitals, blacks exhibited lower adjusted rates of sepsis hospitalizations and mortality than whites.