Modelling the Health Impact of an English Sugary Drinks Duty at National and Local Levels.
ABSTRACT: Increasing evidence associates excess refined sugar intakes with obesity, Type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Worryingly, the estimated volume of sugary drinks purchased in the UK has more than doubled between 1975 and 2007, from 510 ml to 1140 ml per person per week. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of a duty on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) at a local level in England, hypothesising that a duty could reduce obesity and related diseases.We modelled the potential impact of a 20% sugary drinks duty on local authorities in England between 2010 and 2030. We synthesised data obtained from the British National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS), drinks manufacturers, Office for National Statistics, and from previous studies. This produced a modelled population of 41 million adults in 326 lower tier local authorities in England. This analysis suggests that a 20% SSB duty could result in approximately 2,400 fewer diabetes cases, 1,700 fewer stroke and coronary heart disease cases, 400 fewer cancer cases, and gain some 41,000 Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) per year across England. The duty might have the biggest impact in urban areas with young populations.This study adds to the growing body of evidence suggesting health benefits for a duty on sugary drinks. It might also usefully provide results at an area level to inform local price interventions in England.
Project description:This study evaluated the efficacy of self-regulation interventions through the use of drink-specific implementation intentions and drink-specific Go/No-Go training tasks as compensatory strategies to modify inhibitory control to reduce intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). In a between-subjects randomized manipulation of implementation intentions and Go/No-Go training to learn to inhibit sugary drink consumption, 168 adolescents reporting inhibitory control problems over sugary drinks and foods were recruited from high schools in southern California to participate. Analysis of covariance overall test of effects revealed no significant differences between the groups regarding calories consumed, calories from SSBs, grams of sugar consumed from drinks, or the number of unhealthy drinks chosen. However, subsequent contrasts revealed SSB implementation intentions significantly reduced SSB consumption following intervention while controlling for inhibitory control failure and general SSB consumption during observation in a lab setting that provided SSBs and healthy drinks, as well as healthy and unhealthy snacks. Specifically, during post-intervention observation, participants in the sugar-sweetened beverage implementation intentions (SSB-II) conditions consumed significantly fewer calories overall, fewer calories from drinks, and fewer grams of sugar. No effects were found for the drink-specific Go/No-Go training on SSB or calorie consumption. However, participants in SSB-II with an added SSB Go/No-Go training made fewer unhealthy drink choices than those in the other conditions. Implementation intentions may aid individuals with inhibitory (executive control) difficulties by intervening on pre-potent behavioral tendencies, like SSB consumption.
Project description:This study investigated the dietary intake of pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and their beliefs relating to the consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&V) and sugary foods and drinks. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 239 pregnant women with GDM in Cape Town. Dietary intake was assessed using a quantified Food Frequency Questionnaire and beliefs relating to food choices were assessed using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). The mean energy intake was 7268 KJ, carbohydrate was 220 (±104.5) g, protein 60.3 (±27.5) g and fat 67.7 (±44.2) g. The macronutrient distribution was 55% carbohydrates, 14.5% protein and 30.5% fat of total energy. The majority of the sample had inadequate intakes of vitamin D (87.4%), folate (96.5%) and iron (91.3%). The median (IQR) amount of added table sugar and sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) was 4.0 (0.00?12.5) g and 17.9 (0.0?132.8) mL per day, respectively. Only 31.4% met the recommendation (400 g per day) for F&V. Beliefs that it was not easy to exclude sugary foods/drinks and that knowing how to control cravings for sugary foods/drinks are areas to target messages on the sugar content of SSBs. In conclusion, the dietary intake of these women was not optimal and fell short of several nutritional guidelines for pregnant women with hyperglycaemia. The strongly held beliefs regarding sugary foods/drinks may contribute to poor adherence to nutritional guidelines among pregnant women with GDM in South Africa.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>In March, 2016, the UK Government proposed a tiered levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs; high tax for drinks with >8 g of sugar per 100 mL, moderate tax for 5-8 g, and no tax for <5 g). We estimate the effect of possible industry responses to the levy on obesity, diabetes, and dental caries.<h4>Methods</h4>We modelled three possible industry responses: reformulation to reduce sugar concentration, an increase of product price, and a change of the market share of high-sugar, mid-sugar, and low-sugar drinks. For each response, we defined a better-case and worse-case health scenario. We developed a comparative risk assessment model to estimate the UK health impact of each scenario on prevalence of obesity and incidence of dental caries and type 2 diabetes. The model combined data for sales and consumption of SSBs, disease incidence and prevalence, price elasticity estimates, and estimates of the association between SSB consumption and disease outcomes. We drew the disease association parameters from a meta-analysis of experimental studies (SSBs and weight change), a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies (type 2 diabetes), and a prospective cohort study (dental caries).<h4>Findings</h4>The best modelled scenario for health is SSB reformulation, resulting in a reduction of 144?383 (95% uncertainty interval 5102-306?743; 0·9%) of 15?470?813 adults and children with obesity in the UK, 19?094 (6920-32?678; incidence reduction of 31·1 per 100?000 person-years) fewer incident cases of type 2 diabetes per year, and 269?375 (82?211-470?928; incidence reduction of 4·4 per 1000 person-years) fewer decayed, missing, or filled teeth annually. An increase in the price of SSBs in the better-case scenario would result in 81?594 (3588-182?669; 0·5%) fewer adults and children with obesity, 10?861 (3899-18?964; 17·7) fewer incident cases of diabetes per year, and 149?378 (45?231-262?013; 2·4) fewer decayed, missing, or filled teeth annually. Changes to market share to increase the proportion of low-sugar drinks sold in the better-case scenario would result in 91?042 (4289-204?903; 0·6%) fewer adults and children with diabetes, 1528 (4414-21?785; 19·7) fewer incident cases of diabetes per year, and 172?718 (47?919-294?499; 2·8) fewer decayed, missing, or filled teeth annually. The greatest benefit for obesity and oral health would be among individuals aged younger than 18 years, with people aged older than 65 years having the largest absolute decreases in diabetes incidence.<h4>Interpretation</h4>The health impact of the soft drinks levy is dependent on its implementation by industry. Uncertainty exists as to how industry will react and about estimation of health outcomes. Health gains could be maximised by substantial product reformulation, with additional benefits possible if the levy is passed on to purchasers through raising of the price of high-sugar and mid-sugar drinks and activities to increase the market share of low-sugar products.<h4>Funding</h4>None.
Project description:To analyze the effects of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Ecuador, this study estimates a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model using data from the 2011-2012 National Survey of Income and Expenditure for Urban and Rural Households. We derive own- and cross-price elasticities by income quintiles and consumption deciles for five beverages, including two types of sugary drink: (i) milk, (ii) soft drinks, (iii) water, (iv) other sugary drinks, and (v) coffee and tea. Overall, results show that a 20% increase in the price of SSBs will decrease the consumption of soft drinks and other sugary drinks by 27% and 22%, respectively. Heterogeneous consumer behavior is revealed across income and consumption groups, as well as policy-relevant complementarity and substitution patterns. Policy impacts are simulated by considering an 18 cents per liter tax, implemented in Ecuador, and an ad-valorem 20% tax on the price. Estimated tax revenues and weight loss are larger for the latter. From a health perspective, high-income and heavy consumer households would benefit the most from this policy. Our study supports an evidence-based debate on how to correctly design and monitor food policy.
Project description:<h4>Importance</h4>Data are needed to evaluate community interventions to reduce consumption of sugary drinks. Supermarket sales data can be used for this purpose.<h4>Objective</h4>To compare beverage sales in Howard County, Maryland (HC), with sales in comparison stores in a contiguous state before and during a 3-year campaign to reduce consumption of sugary beverages.<h4>Design, setting, and partipicants</h4>This observational experiment with a control group included 15 HC supermarkets and 17 comparison supermarkets. Weekly beverage sales data at baseline (January 1 to December 31, 2012) and from campaign years 1 to 3 (January 1, 2013, through December 31, 2015) were analyzed. A difference-in-differences (DID) regression compared the volume sales per product per week in the HC and comparison stores, controlling for mean product price, competitor's product price, product size, weekly local temperature, and manufacturer.<h4>Exposures</h4>The campaign message was to reduce consumption of all sugary drinks. Television advertising, digital marketing, direct mail, outdoor advertising, social media, and earned media during the 3-year period created 17 million impressions. Community partners successfully advocated for public policies to encourage healthy beverage consumption in schools, child care, health care, and government settings.<h4>Main outcomes and measures</h4>Sales were tracked of sugary drinks highlighted in the campaign, including regular soda, sports drinks, and fruit drinks. Sales of diet soda and 100% juice were also tracked. Sales data are expressed as mean fluid ounces sold per product, per store, per week.<h4>Results</h4>Regular soda sales in the 15 HC supermarkets decreased (-19.7%) from 2012 through 2015, whereas sales remained stable (0.8%) in the 17 comparison supermarkets (DID adjusted mean, -369 fl oz; 95% CI, -469 to -269 fl oz; P?<?.01). Fruit drink sales decreased (-15.3%) in HC stores and remained stable (-0.6%) in comparison stores (DID adjusted mean, -342 fl oz; 95% CI, -466 to -220 fl oz; P?<?.001). Sales of 100% juice decreased more in HC (-15.0%) than comparison (-2.1%) stores (DID mean, -576 fl oz; 95% CI, -776 to -375 fl oz; P?<?.001). Sales of sports drinks (-86.3 fl oz; 95% CI, -343.6 to 170.9 fl oz) and diet soda (-17.8 in HC stores vs -11.3 in comparison stores; DID adjusted mean, -78.9 fl oz; 95% CI, -182.1 to 24.4 fl oz) decreased in both communities, but the decreases were not significantly different between groups.<h4>Conclusions and relevance</h4>A locally designed, multicomponent campaign to reduce consumption of sugary drinks was associated with an accelerated decrease in sales of regular soda, fruit drinks, and 100% juice. This policy-focused campaign provides a road map for other communities to reduce consumption of sugary drinks.
Project description:BACKGROUND:In October 2014, Chile implemented a tax modification on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) called the Impuesto Adicional a las Bebidas Analcohólicas (IABA). The design of the tax was unique, increasing the tax on soft drinks above 6.25 grams of added sugar per 100 mL and decreasing the tax for those below this threshold. METHODS AND FINDINGS:This study evaluates Chile's SSB tax, which was announced in March 2014 and implemented in October 2014. We used household-level grocery-purchasing data from 2011 to 2015 for 2,836 households living in cities representative of the urban population of Chile. We employed a fixed-effects econometric approach and estimated the before-after change in purchasing of SSBs controlling for seasonality, general time trend, temperature, and economic fluctuations as well as time-invariant household characteristics. Results showed significant changes in purchasing for the statistically preferred model: while there was a barely significant decrease in the volume of all soft drinks, there was a highly significant decrease in the monthly purchased volume of the higher-taxed, sugary soft drinks by 21.6%. The direction of this reduction was robust to different empirical modelling approaches, but the statistical significance and the magnitude of the changes varied considerably. The reduction in soft drink purchasing was most evident amongst higher socioeconomic groups and higher pretax purchasers of sugary soft drinks. There was no systematic, robust pattern in the estimates by household obesity status. After tax implementation, the purchase prices of soft drinks decreased for the items for which the tax rate was reduced, but they remained unchanged for sugary items, for which the tax was increased. However, the purchase prices increased for sugary soft drinks at the time of the policy announcement. The main limitations include a lack of a randomised design, limiting the extent of causal inference possible, and the focus on purchasing data rather than consumption or health outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:The results of subgroup analyses suggest that the policy may have been partially effective, though not necessarily in ways that are likely to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in diet-related health. It remains unclear whether the policy has had a major, overall population-level impact. Additionally, because the present study examined purchasing of soft drinks for only 1 year, a longer-term evaluation-ideally including an assessment of consumption and health impacts-should be conducted in future research. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02926001.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Despite considerable public health interest in sugary drink consumption, there has been little comparison of intake across countries.<h4>Objectives</h4>This study aimed to compare the consumption frequency and amounts of commonly consumed beverages among adults in 5 upper-middle- and high-income countries, and examine differences in consumption between population subgroups.<h4>Methods</h4>Adults aged 18-65 y completed online surveys in December 2017 in Australia (n = 3264), Canada (n = 2745), Mexico (n = 3152), the United Kingdom (n = 3221), and the USA (n = 4015) as part of the International Food Policy Study. The frequency of consuming beverages from 22 categories in the past 7 d was estimated using the Beverage Frequency Questionnaire. Regression models were used to examine differences in the likelihood of any consumption and in the amounts consumed of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), sugary drinks (SSBs and 100% juice), diet, and alcoholic beverages between countries and across sociodemographic subgroups.<h4>Results</h4>The prevalence of reported SSB consumption in the past 7 d ranged from 47% (United Kingdom) to 81% (Mexico), and that of sugary drinks ranged from 62% (United Kingdom) to 87% (Mexico). Rates of consumption of diet drinks ranged from 26% (Mexico) to 37% (United Kingdom), whereas alcoholic drink consumption rates ranged from 45% (USA) to 52% (Canada). Respondents in Mexico were more likely to consume SSBs and sugary drinks, and in greater amounts, than those in other countries. Respondents in the United Kingdom were more likely to consume diet drinks than those in Australia, Canada, and Mexico, and greater amounts of diet drinks were consumed in the United Kingdom and the USA. Across countries, younger respondents and males were more likely to consume greater amounts of SSBs and sugary drinks.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Most adult respondents across all countries consumed SSBs and sugary drinks, with greater consumption in Mexico and the USA. Consumption varied greatly across countries, but patterns of association among subpopulations were relatively similar.
Project description:Background:The rate of overweight and obesity in Australia is among the highest in the world. Yet Australia lags other countries in developing comprehensive educative or regulatory responses to address sugary drink consumption, a key modifiable risk factor that contributes substantial excess sugar to the diet. Measurement of sugary drink consumption is typically sporadic and nutrition focussed and there is limited knowledge of community perceptions and awareness of the health risks associated with excess sugary drink consumption. The aim of this study was to assess the demographic characteristics, behavioural risk factors and attitudes and knowledge associated with sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) and 100% fruit juice consumption. Methods:A face-to-face household survey was conducted in 2014 using a stratified random sampling strategy to represent the South Australian population aged 15?years and over. The survey contained questions on sugary drinks, with past week SSB consumption and 100% fruit juice consumption used as outcome variables. Associations were examined with demographic characteristics, behavioural risk factors, and sugary drink attitudes and knowledge. Results:Of the 2732 respondents, 35% had consumed SSBs 1-6 times (moderate consumers) and 16% had consumed SSBs 7 or more times (frequent consumers) in the past week. Furthermore, 35% had consumed 100% fruit juice in the past week, with 10% consuming every day. Rates of SSB consumption were consistently higher among males, younger age groups, and groups with lower education attainment, as well as smokers and frequent consumers of fast food. Awareness of health risks and sugar content of SSBs was low, especially among frequent SSB consumers. Fruit juice consumption was higher among males, younger age groups, the physically active and among those believing that 100% fruit juice did not contain more sugar than SSBs. Conclusions:Consumption of SSBs and 100% fruit juice is common but awareness of health risks and sugar content of these drinks is low. There is a need for greater consumer understanding which could be achieved through educative approaches such as public education campaigns, on-package warning labels and improved nutrition information panels.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Policymakers worldwide are considering requiring warnings for sugary drinks. A growing number of experimental studies have examined sugary drink warnings' impacts, but no research to our knowledge has synthesized this literature. To inform ongoing policy debates, this study aimed to identify the effects of sugary drink warnings compared with control conditions. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We systematically searched 7 databases on June 21, 2019, and October 25, 2019. We also searched reference lists of relevant articles. Two investigators independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts to identify peer-reviewed articles that used an experimental protocol to examine the effects of sugary drink warnings compared to a control condition. Two investigators independently extracted study characteristics and effect sizes from all relevant full-text articles. We meta-analyzed any outcome assessed in at least 2 studies, combining effect sizes using random effects meta-analytic procedures. Twenty-three experiments with data on 16,241 individuals (mean proportion female, 58%) were included in the meta-analysis. Most studies took place in Latin America (35%) or the US or Canada (46%); 32% included children. Relative to control conditions, sugary drink warnings caused stronger negative emotional reactions (d = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.25, 1.13; p = 0.002) and elicited more thinking about the health effects of sugary drinks (d = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.29, 1.01; p < 0.001). Sugary drink warnings also led to lower healthfulness perceptions (d = -0.22; 95% CI: -0.27, -0.17; p < 0.001) and stronger disease likelihood perceptions (d = 0.15; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.24; p = 0.001). Moreover, sugary drink warnings reduced both hypothetical (d = -0.32; 95% CI: -0.44, -0.21; p < 0.001) and actual consumption and purchasing behavior (d = -0.17; 95% CI: -0.30, -0.04; p = 0.012). Statistically significant effects were not observed for perceptions of added sugar or positive sugary drink attitudes (p's > 0.10). Moderation analyses revealed that health warnings (e.g., "Beverages with added sugar contribute to obesity") led to greater reductions in hypothetical sugary drink purchases than did nutrient warnings (e.g., "High in sugar"; d = -0.35 versus -0.18; Qb = 4.04; p = 0.04). Limitations of this study include that we did not review grey literature and that we were unable to conduct moderation analyses for several prespecified moderators due to an insufficient number of studies. CONCLUSIONS:This international body of experimental literature supports sugary drink warnings as a population-level strategy for changing behavior, as well as emotions, perceptions, and intentions. PROTOCOL REGISTRY:PROSPERO ID 146405.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To assess the associations between the consumption of sugary drinks (such as sugar sweetened beverages and 100% fruit juices), artificially sweetened beverages, and the risk of cancer. DESIGN:Population based prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:Overall, 101?257 participants aged 18 and over (mean age 42.2, SD 14.4; median follow-up time 5.1 years) from the French NutriNet-Santé cohort (2009-2017) were included. Consumptions of sugary drinks and artificially sweetened beverages were assessed by using repeated 24 hour dietary records, which were designed to register participants' usual consumption for 3300 different food and beverage items. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Prospective associations between beverage consumption and the risk of overall, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer were assessed by multi-adjusted Fine and Gray hazard models, accounting for competing risks. Subdistribution hazard ratios were computed. RESULTS:The consumption of sugary drinks was significantly associated with the risk of overall cancer (n=2193 cases, subdistribution hazard ratio for a 100mL/d increase 1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.27, P<0.0001) and breast cancer (693, 1.22, 1.07 to 1.39, P=0.004). The consumption of artificially sweetened beverages was not associated with the risk of cancer. In specific subanalyses, the consumption of 100% fruit juice was significantly associated with the risk of overall cancer (2193, 1.12, 1.03 to 1.23, P=0.007). CONCLUSIONS:In this large prospective study, the consumption of sugary drinks was positively associated with the risk of overall cancer and breast cancer. 100% fruit juices were also positively associated with the risk of overall cancer. These results need replication in other large scale prospective studies. They suggest that sugary drinks, which are widely consumed in Western countries, might represent a modifiable risk factor for cancer prevention. STUDY REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03335644.