Between-Country Inequalities in the Neglected Tropical Disease Burden in 1990 and 2010, with Projections for 2020.
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The World Health Organization (WHO) has set ambitious time-bound targets for the control and elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Investing in NTDs is not only seen as good value for money, but is also advocated as a pro-poor policy since it would improve population health in the poorest populations. We studied the extent to which the disease burden from nine NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths, trachoma, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis) was concentrated in the poorest countries in 1990 and 2010, and how this would change by 2020 in case the WHO targets are met. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Our analysis was based on 1990 and 2010 data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study and on projections of the 2020 burden. Low and lower-middle income countries together accounted for 69% and 81% of the global burden in 1990 and 2010 respectively. Only the soil-transmitted helminths and Chagas disease caused a considerable burden in upper-middle income countries. The global burden from these NTDs declined by 27% between 1990 and 2010, but reduction largely came to the benefit of upper-middle income countries. Achieving the WHO targets would lead to a further 55% reduction in the global burden between 2010 and 2020 in each country income group, and 81% of the global reduction would occur in low and lower-middle income countries. CONCLUSIONS:The GBD 2010 data show the burden of the nine selected NTDs in DALYs is strongly concentrated in low and lower-middle income countries, which implies that the beneficial impact of NTD control eventually also largely comes to the benefit of these same countries. While the nine NTDs became increasingly concentrated in developing countries in the 1990-2010 period, this trend would be rectified if the WHO targets were met, supporting the pro-poor designation.
Project description:Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. The GBD (Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study (GBD 2010 Study) conducted a systematic review of IHD epidemiology literature from 1980 to 2008 to inform estimates of the burden on IHD in 21 world regions in 1990 and 2010.The disease model of IHD for the GBD 2010 Study included IHD death and 3 sequelae: myocardial infarction, heart failure, and angina pectoris. Medline, EMBASE, and LILACS were searched for IHD epidemiology studies in GBD high-income and low- and middle-income regions published between 1980 and 2008 using a systematic protocol validated by regional IHD experts. Data from included studies were supplemented with unpublished data from selected high-quality surveillance and survey studies. The epidemiologic parameters of interest were incidence, prevalence, case fatality, and mortality.Literature searches yielded 40,205 unique papers, of which 1,801 met initial screening criteria. Upon detailed review of full text papers, 137 published studies were included. Unpublished data were obtained from 24 additional studies. Data were sufficient for high-income regions, but missing or sparse in many low- and middle-income regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa.A systematic review for the GBD 2010 Study provided IHD epidemiology estimates for most world regions, but highlighted the lack of information about IHD in Sub-Saharan Africa and other low-income regions. More complete knowledge of the global burden of IHD will require improved IHD surveillance programs in all world regions.
Project description:This study aimed to describe national peripheral vascular disease (PVD) risk and health burden, and vascular care capacity in Ghana. The gap between PVD burden and vascular care capacity in low- and middle-income countries was defined, and capacity improvement priorities were identified.Data to estimate PVD risk factor burden were obtained from the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE), Ghana, and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease (IHME GBD) database. In addition, a novel nationwide assessment of vascular care capacity was performed, with 20 vascular care items assessed at 40 hospitals in Ghana. Factors contributing to specific item deficiency were described.From the SAGE database, there were 4305 respondents aged at least 50 years with data to estimate PVD risk. Of these, 57·4 per cent were at moderate to risk high of PVD with at least three risk factors; extrapolating nationally, the estimate was 1?654?557 people. Based on IHME GBD data, the estimated disability-adjusted life-years incurred from PVD increased fivefold from 1990 to 2010 (from 6·3 to 31·7 per 100?000 persons respectively). Vascular care capacity assessment demonstrated marked deficiencies in items for diagnosis, and in perioperative and vascular surgical care. Deficiencies were most often due to absence of equipment, lack of training and technology breakage.Risk factor reduction and management as well as optimization of current resources are paramount to avoid the large burden of PVD falling on healthcare systems in low- and middle-income countries. These countries are not well equipped to handle vascular surgical care, and rapid development of such capacity would be difficult and expensive.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The aim of the present study was to use the extensive Global Burden ofDiseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) database from 1990-2017 to evaluate the levels andtemporal correlation trends between disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed tomusculoskeletal (MSK) disorders, all mental disorders collectively and by mental disorder subcategory. METHODS:We utilized results of the GBD 2017 to describe the correlation patterns betweenDALYs due to MSK disorders, mental disorders and other diseases among 195 countries. Mixedmodel analysis was also applied. RESULTS:A consistent relation was reported between age-adjustedDALYs attributed to MSK and mental disorders (in total) among the 195 countries, in both sexes,for 1990 to 2017 (1990 Rho = 0.487; 2017 Rho =0.439 p < 0.05). Distinct regional and gender correlationpatterns between age-adjusted DALYs due to MSK and mental disorders were reported. Nocorrelation was reported between DALYs due to MSK and all mental disorders collectively, amongLow- or Middle-income countries. However, in High-income countries (HICs), the correlation wasstrong and consistent between 1990 and 2017 (1990 Rho = 0.735; 2017 Rho = 0.727, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS:The reported correlation patterns call for targeted preventive strategies andintervention policies for mental and MSK disorders internationally. Special attention is neededamong HICs.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Availability of data to assess the population health and provision and quality of health care in Saudi Arabia has been lacking. In 2010, Saudi Arabia began a major investment and transformation programme in the health-care sector. Here we assess the impact of this investment era on mortality, health loss, risk factors, and health-care services in the country. METHODS:We used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to describe the levels and temporal patterns in deaths, health loss, risk factors, and health-care access and quality in the Saudi Arabian population during 1990-2010 (before the health-care investments and reform) and 2010-17 (during health-care investments and reform). We also compared patterns in health outcomes between these periods with those in the north Africa and the Middle East GBD region and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. FINDINGS:Age-standardised mortality in Saudi Arabia decreased from 1990 to 2010 (annualised rate of change of -0·58%), and this decrease was further accelerated from 2010 to 2017 (-2·20%). The north Africa and the Middle East GBD region also had decreases in mortality during these periods, but for 2010-17 the decrease was not as low as in Saudi Arabia (-1·29%). Transport injuries decreased from third ranked cause of disability-adjusted life-years in 2010 to fifth ranked cause in 2017 in Saudi Arabia, below cardiovascular diseases (ranked first) and musculoskeletal disorders (ranked second). Years lived with disability (YLDs) due to mental disorders, substance use disorders, neoplasms, and neurological disorders consistently increased over the periods 1990-2010 and 2010-17. Between 1990 and 2017, attributable YLDs due to metabolic, behavioural, and environmental or occupational risk factors remained almost unchanged in Saudi Arabia, with high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose concentration, and drug use increasing across all age groups. Health-care Access and Quality (HAQ) Index levels increased in Saudi Arabia during this period with similar patterns to the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the north Africa and the Middle East GBD region. INTERPRETATION:Decreases in mortality continued at greater rates in Saudi Arabia during the period of 2010-17 than in 1990-2010. HAQ Index levels have also improved. Public health policy makers in Saudi Arabia need to increase efforts to address preventable risk factors that are major contributors to the burden of ill health and disability. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013.<h4>Methods</h4>GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically.<h4>Findings</h4>The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100?000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100?000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60-80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred.<h4>Interpretation</h4>Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts.<h4>Funding</h4>Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Project description:BACKGROUND:As the number of older people globally increases, health systems need to be reformed to meet the growing need for medical resources. A few previous studies reported varying health impacts of population ageing, but they focused only on limited countries and diseases. We comprehensively quantify the impact of population ageing on mortality for 195 countries/territories and 169 causes of death. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017), this study derived the total number of deaths and population size for each year from 1990 to 2017. A decomposition method was used to attribute changes in total deaths to population growth, population ageing, and mortality change between 1990 and each subsequent year from 1991 through 2017, for 195 countries/territories and for countries grouped by World Bank economic development level. For countries with increases in deaths related to population ageing, we calculated the ratio of deaths attributed to mortality change to those attributed to population ageing. The proportion of people aged 65 years and older increased globally from 6.1% to 8.8%, and the number of global deaths increased by 9 million, between 1990 and 2017. Compared to 1990, 12 million additional global deaths in 2017 were associated with population ageing, corresponding to 27.9% of total global deaths. Population ageing was associated with increases in deaths in high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries but not in low-income countries. The proportions of deaths attributed to population ageing in 195 countries/territories ranged from -43.9% to 117.4% for males and -30.1% to 153.5% for females. The 2 largest contributions of population ageing to disease-specific deaths globally between 1990 and 2017 were for ischemic heart disease (3.2 million) and stroke (2.2 million). Population ageing was related to increases in deaths in 152 countries for males and 159 countries for females, and decreases in deaths in 43 countries for males and 36 countries for females, between 1990 and 2017. The decreases in deaths attributed to mortality change from 1990 to 2017 were more than the increases in deaths related to population ageing for the whole world, as well as in 55.3% (84/152) of countries for males and 47.8% (76/159) of countries for females where population ageing was associated with increased death burden. As the GBD 2017 does not provide variances in the estimated death numbers, we were not able to quantify uncertainty in our attribution estimates. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we found that population ageing was associated with substantial changes in numbers of deaths between 1990 and 2017, but the attributed proportion of deaths varied widely across country income levels, countries, and causes of death. Specific preventive and therapeutic techniques should be implemented in different countries and territories to address the growing health needs related to population ageing, especially targeting the diseases associated with the largest increase in number of deaths in the elderly.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Statistical data on the incidence, mortality, and burden of breast cancer and the relevant risk factors are valuable for policy-making. We aimed to estimate breast cancer incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by country, gender, age group, and social-demographic status between 1990 and 2017. METHODS:We extracted breast cancer data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 through 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Data about the number of breast cancer incident cases, deaths, DALYs, and the age-standardized rates were collected. We also estimated the risk factors attributable to breast cancer deaths and DALYs using the comparative risk assessment framework of the GBD study. RESULTS:In 2017, the global incidence of breast cancer increased to 1,960,681 cases. The high social-development index (SDI) quintile included the highest number of breast cancer death cases. Between 2007 and 2017, the ASDR of breast cancer declined globally, especially in high SDI and high middle SDI countries. The related DALYs were 17,708,600 in 2017 with high middle SDI quintile as the highest contributor. Of the deaths and DALYs, alcohol use was the greatest contributor in most GBD regions and other contributors included high body mass index (BMI) and high fasting plasma glucose. CONCLUSION:The increasing global breast cancer burden is mainly observed in lower SDI countries; in higher SDI countries, the breast cancer burden tends to be relieving. Therefore, steps against attributable risk factors should be taken to reduce breast cancer burden in lower SDI countries.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:We aimed to assess the magnitude, temporal trends and socioeconomic disparity in the global burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung (TBL) from 1990 to 2017, using data extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD 2017). METHODS:We extracted data from the GBD 2017 study. A series of comparative and descriptive analyses of the disease burden between females and males and countries with different socioeconomic development statuses (Social Demographic Index, SDI). We also analysed the temporal trends of age-standardised disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) of TBL cancer at the global and super-regional level by means of joinpoint regression. Finally, we also calculated Concentration Index to explore trends of between-country inequality in cancer burden from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS:During the past 27 years, the global incidence of TBL cancer cases and death cases has increased by 100% and 82.3% respectively, but the increase number was mainly influenced by population growth and ageing. After adjustment, from 1990 to 2017, the ASDR of TBL has increased by 3% and the age-standardised death rate has decreased by 7%. The global TBL cancer burden fell by 15.3%. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of age-standardised TBL cancer burden for both females and males significantly changed twice between 1990 and 2017, and it varied across countries with different SDI values and was also different between females and males. Age-standardised TBL cancer burden was more concentrated in higher socioeconomic development countries, but the development of healthy inequality showed a downward trend in males while showing an upward trend in females. CONCLUSION:The magnitude and temporal trends of TBL cancer burden varied across countries and sex. This study highlighted the importance of crafting health policy to adapt to local conditions to manage the global burden of TBL cancers.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Folate-sensitive neural tube defects (NTDs) are an important, preventable cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. There is a need to describe the current global burden of NTDs and identify gaps in available NTD data. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We conducted a systematic review and searched multiple databases for NTD prevalence estimates and abstracted data from peer-reviewed literature, birth defects surveillance registries, and reports published between January 1990 and July 2014 that had greater than 5,000 births and were not solely based on mortality data. We classified countries according to World Health Organization (WHO) regions and World Bank income classifications. The initial search yielded 11,614 results; after systematic review we identified 160 full text manuscripts and reports that met the inclusion criteria. Data came from 75 countries. Coverage by WHO region varied in completeness (i.e., % of countries reporting) as follows: African (17%), Eastern Mediterranean (57%), European (49%), Americas (43%), South-East Asian (36%), and Western Pacific (33%). The reported NTD prevalence ranges and medians for each region were: African (5.2-75.4; 11.7 per 10,000 births), Eastern Mediterranean (2.1-124.1; 21.9 per 10,000 births), European (1.3-35.9; 9.0 per 10,000 births), Americas (3.3-27.9; 11.5 per 10,000 births), South-East Asian (1.9-66.2; 15.8 per 10,000 births), and Western Pacific (0.3-199.4; 6.9 per 10,000 births). The presence of a registry or surveillance system for NTDs increased with country income level: low income (0%), lower-middle income (25%), upper-middle income (70%), and high income (91%). CONCLUSIONS:Many WHO member states (120/194) did not have any data on NTD prevalence. Where data are collected, prevalence estimates vary widely. These findings highlight the need for greater NTD surveillance efforts, especially in lower-income countries. NTDs are an important public health problem that can be prevented with folic acid supplementation and fortification of staple foods.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:Using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we examined differences in unintentional occupational injury mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 between high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS:Unintentional occupational injury mortality rates were obtained through the GBD online visualization tool. We quantified mortality changes over time for common external causes of injury for ages 15?49 years and 50?69 years separately in HICs and LMICs using negative binomial regression models. RESULTS:In 2016, there were 24,396 and 303,999 unintentional occupational injury deaths among individuals aged 15 to 69 years in HICs and LMICs, respectively, corresponding to 3.1 and 7.0 per 100,000 people. Between 1990 and 2016, unintentional occupational injury mortality for people aged 15?69 years dropped 46% (from 5.7 to 3.1 per 100,000 people) in HICs and 42% in LMICs (from 13.2 to 7.0 per 100,000 people). Sustained and large disparities existed between HICs and LMICs for both sexes and both age groups during 1990?2016 (mortality rate ratio: 2.2?2.4). All unintentional occupational injury causes of death displayed significant reduction with one exception (ages 15?49 years in HICs). Country-specific analysis revealed large variations in unintentional occupational injury mortality and changes in occupational injury mortality between 1990 and 2016. CONCLUSIONS:Despite substantial decreases in mortality between 1990 and 2016 for both HICs and LMICs, a large disparity continues to exist between HICs and LMICs. Multifaceted efforts are needed to reduce the disparity.