Longitudinal Patterns of Change in Systolic Blood Pressure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.
ABSTRACT: Elevated blood pressure in midlife contributes significantly to the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, patterns of blood pressure increase may differ among individuals and may result in differential risk. Our goal was to examine the contribution of longitudinal patterns of blood pressure change to incidence of heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular disease mortality. Latent class growth models were used to identify patterns of change in blood pressure across 4 clinical examinations (1987-1998) among 9845 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort participants (mean age, 53.7 [SD 5.7] years). Patterns of change in systolic blood pressure included slowly and steeply increasing, a decreasing and a sustained elevated blood pressure. Changes in diastolic and mid-blood pressure (½ systolic+½ diastolic) were less pronounced. The association of blood pressure pattern group membership with incidence of clinical outcomes was examined in follow-up from the fourth clinical examination (1996-1998) to December 31, 2011, using Poisson regression models adjusted for demographic and metabolic characteristics, and hypertension medication use. A gradient of rates of all events was observed across the identified patterns. Associations were attenuated after adjustment for covariates. Cumulative systolic blood pressure load, rather than the temporal pattern of change in systolic blood pressure itself, plays a role in determining the risk of cardiovascular disease, in particular, of heart failure and cardiovascular disease mortality, independent of blood pressure level measured at one point in time.
Project description:AIMS:The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude of change in estimated cardiovascular disease risk when multiple same day blood pressure measurements are used in estimating coronary heart disease, heart failure and stroke risks. METHODS AND RESULTS:Black and White participants, N?=?11,129, enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (mean age 53.9?±?5.7 (SD) years) were included. Each participant had three sitting, five supine, and six standing blood pressure measures during one day. Main outcome measures were changes in estimated coronary heart disease, heart failure and stroke risk when using the different blood pressure measures. Mean sitting, standing and supine systolic blood pressure values of the study population were 120.8?±?18.6, 124.9?±?20 and 124.7?±?19.6?mmHg, respectively. The substitution of the second sitting systolic blood pressure with the third sitting systolic blood pressure (taken ?5?min later) in two separate coronary heart disease risk models reclassified 3.3% to 5.1% of study participants. Similar substitutions for heart failure and stroke risk prediction models led to reclassification of 1.9% and 2.7% of participants respectively. When mean sitting systolic blood pressure was replaced with mean standing systolic blood pressure 5.4% to 11.6% of the participants were reclassified. Maximum upward and downward change in an individual's estimated risk was 31% and 26% respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Estimated risks of coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke for an individual can change significantly within a day due to changes in systolic blood pressure. Given recommendations to use estimated risk for therapeutic decisions, our study has implications for the use of a single systolic blood pressure in cardiovascular risk estimation.
Project description:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Hypertension represents a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality worldwide but its prevalence has been shown to vary in different countries. The reasons for such differences are still matter of debate, the relative contributions given by environmental and genetic factors being still poorly defined. We estimated the current prevalence, distribution and determinants of hypertension in isolated Sardinian populations and also investigated the environmental and genetic contribution to hypertension prevalence taking advantage of the characteristics of such populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: An epidemiological survey with cross-sectional design was carried out measuring blood pressure in 9845 inhabitants of 10 villages of Ogliastra region between 2002 and 2008. Regression analysis for assessing blood pressure determinants and variance component models for estimating heritability were performed. Overall 38.8% of this population had hypertension, its prevalence varying significantly by age, sex and among villages taking into account age and sex structure of their population. About 50% of hypertensives had prior cardiovascular disease. High blood pressure was independently associated with age, obesity related factors, heart rate, total cholesterol, alcohol consumption, low education and smoking status, all these factors contributing more in women than in men. Heritability was 27% for diastolic and 36% for systolic blood pressure, its contribution being significantly higher in men (57%) than in women (46%). Finally, the genetic correlation between systolic and diastolic blood pressure was 0.74, indicating incomplete pleiotropy. CONCLUSION: Genetic factors involved in the expression of blood pressure traits account for about 30% of the phenotypic variance, but seem to play a larger role in men; comorbidities and environmental factors remain of predominant importance, but seem to contribute much more in women.
Project description:High blood pressure is an important public health concern because it is highly prevalent and a risk factor for adverse health outcomes, including coronary heart disease, stroke, decompensated heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and decline in cognitive function. Observational studies show a progressive increase in risk associated with blood pressure above 115/75 mm Hg. Prior research has shown that reducing elevated systolic blood pressure lowers the risk of subsequent clinical complications from cardiovascular disease. However, the optimal systolic blood pressure to reduce blood pressure-related adverse outcomes is unclear, and the benefit of treating to a level of systolic blood pressure well below 140 mm Hg has not been proven in a large, definitive clinical trial.To describe the design considerations of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) and the baseline characteristics of trial participants.The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial is a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial that compares two strategies for treating systolic blood pressure: one targets the standard target of <140 mm Hg, and the other targets a more intensive target of <120 mm Hg. Enrollment focused on volunteers of age ?50 years (no upper limit) with an average baseline systolic blood pressure ?130 mm Hg and evidence of cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, 10-year Framingham cardiovascular disease risk score ?15%, or age ?75 years. The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial recruitment also targeted three pre-specified subgroups: participants with chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), participants with a history of cardiovascular disease, and participants 75 years of age or older. The primary outcome is first the occurrence of a myocardial infarction (MI), acute coronary syndrome, stroke, heart failure, or cardiovascular disease death. Secondary outcomes include all-cause mortality, decline in kidney function or development of end-stage renal disease, incident dementia, decline in cognitive function, and small-vessel cerebral ischemic disease.Between 8 November 2010 and 15 March 2013, Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial recruited and randomized 9361 people at 102 clinics, including 3331 women, 2648 with chronic kidney disease, 1877 with a history of cardiovascular disease, 3962 minorities, and 2636 ?75 years of age.Although the overall recruitment target was met, the numbers recruited in the high-risk subgroups were lower than planned.The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial will provide important information on the risks and benefits of intensive blood pressure treatment targets in a diverse sample of high-risk participants, including those with prior cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and those aged ?75 years.
Project description:The increasing use of ketamine as a potential rapid-onset antidepressant necessitates a better understanding of its effects on blood pressure and heart rate, well-known side effects at higher doses. For the subanesthetic dose used for depression, potential predictors of these cardiovascular effects are important factors influencing clinical decisions. Since ketamine influences the sympathetic nervous system, we investigated the impact of autonomic nervous system-related factors on the cardiovascular response: a genetic polymorphism in the norepinephrine transporter and gender effects.Blood pressure and heart rate were monitored during and following administration of a subanesthetic dose of ketamine or placebo in 68 healthy participants (mean age 26.04 ±5.562 years) in a double-blind, randomized, controlled, parallel-design trial. The influences of baseline blood pressure/heart rate, gender, and of a polymorphism in the norepinephrine transporter gene (NET SLC6A2, rs28386840 [A-3081T]) on blood pressure and heart rate changes were investigated. To quantify changes in blood pressure and heart rate, we calculated the maximum change from baseline (?MAX) and the time until maximum change (T?MAX).Systolic and diastolic blood pressure as well as heart rate increased significantly upon ketamine administration, but without reaching hypertensive levels. During administration, the systolic blood pressure at baseline (TP0Sys) correlated negatively with the time to achieve maximal systolic blood pressure (T?MAXSys, P<.001). Furthermore, women showed higher maximal diastolic blood pressure change (?MAXDia, P<.001) and reached this peak earlier than men (T?MAXDia, P=.017) at administration. NET rs28386840 [T] carriers reached their maximal systolic blood pressure during ketamine administration significantly earlier than [A] homozygous (T?MAXSys, P=.030). In a combined regression model, both genetic polymorphism and TP0Sys were significant predictors of T?MAXSys (P<.0005).Subanesthetic ketamine increased both blood pressure and heart rate without causing hypertensive events. Furthermore, we identified gender and NET rs28386840 genotype as factors that predict increased cardiovascular sequelae of ketamine administration in our young, healthy study population providing a potential basis for establishing monitoring guidelines.
Project description:<h4>Objectives</h4> To compare the risk associated with systolic blood pressure that meets current recommendations (that is, below 140 mm Hg) with the risk associated with lower levels in patients who have type 2 diabetes and no previous cardiovascular disease.<h4>Design</h4> Population based cohort study with nationwide clinical registries, 2006-12. The mean follow-up was 5.0 years.<h4>Setting</h4> 861 Swedish primary care units and hospital outpatient clinics.<h4>Participants</h4> 187?106 patients registered in the Swedish national diabetes register who had had type 2 diabetes for at least a year, age 75 or younger, and with no previous cardiovascular or other major disease.<h4>Main outcome measures</h4> Clinical events were obtained from the hospital discharge and death registers with respect to acute myocardial infarction, stroke, a composite of acute myocardial infarction and stroke (cardiovascular disease), coronary heart disease, heart failure, and total mortality. Hazard ratios were estimated for different levels of baseline systolic blood pressure with clinical characteristics and drug prescription data as covariates.<h4>Results</h4> The group with the lowest systolic blood pressure (110-119 mm Hg) had a significantly lower risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.91; P=0.003), total acute myocardial infarction (0.85, 0.72 to 0.99; P=0.04), non-fatal cardiovascular disease (0.82, 0.72 to 0.93; P=0.002), total cardiovascular disease (0.88, 0.79 to 0.99; P=0.04), and non-fatal coronary heart disease (0.88, 0.78 to 0.99; P=0.03) compared with the reference group (130-139 mm Hg). There was no indication of a J shaped relation between systolic blood pressure and the endpoints, with the exception of heart failure and total mortality.<h4>Conclusions</h4> Lower systolic blood pressure than currently recommended is associated with significantly lower risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. The association between low blood pressure and increased mortality could be due to concomitant disease rather than antihypertensive treatment.
Project description:Strict control of systolic blood pressure is known to slow progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Here we compared audit-based education (ABE) to guidelines and prompts or usual practice in lowering systolic blood pressure in people with CKD. This 2-year cluster randomized trial included 93 volunteer general practices randomized into three arms with 30 ABE practices, 32 with guidelines and prompts, and 31 usual practices. An intervention effect on the primary outcome, systolic blood pressure, was calculated using a multilevel model to predict changes after the intervention. The prevalence of CKD was 7.29% (41,183 of 565,016 patients) with all cardiovascular comorbidities more common in those with CKD. Our models showed that the systolic blood pressure was significantly lowered by 2.41?mm?Hg (CI 0.59-4.29?mm?Hg), in the ABE practices with an odds ratio of achieving at least a 5?mm?Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure of 1.24 (CI 1.05-1.45). Practices exposed to guidelines and prompts produced no significant change compared to usual practice. Male gender, ABE, ischemic heart disease, and congestive heart failure were independently associated with a greater lowering of systolic blood pressure but the converse applied to hypertension and age over 75 years. There were no reports of harm. Thus, individuals receiving ABE are more likely to achieve a lower blood pressure than those receiving only usual practice. The findings should be interpreted with caution due to the wide confidence intervals.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To assess the effect of antihypertensive treatment on mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in people with diabetes mellitus, at different blood pressure levels. DESIGN:Systematic review and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. DATA SOURCES:CENTRAL, Medline, Embase, and BIOSIS were searched using highly sensitive search strategies. When data required according to the protocol were missing but trials were potentially eligible, we contacted researchers, pharmaceutical companies, and authorities. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA:Randomised controlled trials including 100 or more people with diabetes mellitus, treated for 12 months or more, comparing any antihypertensive agent against placebo, two agents against one, or different blood pressure targets. RESULTS:49 trials, including 73,738 participants, were included in the meta-analyses. Most of the participants had type 2 diabetes. If baseline systolic blood pressure was greater than 150 mm Hg, antihypertensive treatment reduced the risk of all cause mortality (relative risk 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 0.99), cardiovascular mortality (0.75, 0.57 to 0.99), myocardial infarction (0.74, 0.63 to 0.87), stroke (0.77, 0.65 to 0.91), and end stage renal disease (0.82, 0.71 to 0.94). If baseline systolic blood pressure was 140-150 mm Hg, additional treatment reduced the risk of all cause mortality (0.87, 0.78 to 0.98), myocardial infarction (0.84, 0.76 to 0.93), and heart failure (0.80, 0.66 to 0.97). If baseline systolic blood pressure was less than 140 mm Hg, however, further treatment increased the risk of cardiovascular mortality (1.15, 1.00 to 1.32), with a tendency towards an increased risk of all cause mortality (1.05, 0.95 to 1.16). Metaregression analyses showed a worse treatment effect with lower baseline systolic blood pressures for cardiovascular mortality (1.15, 1.03 to 1.29 for each 10 mm Hg lower systolic blood pressure) and myocardial infarction (1.12, 1.03 to 1.22 for each 10 mm Hg lower systolic blood pressure). Patterns were similar for attained systolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS:Antihypertensive treatment reduces the risk of mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in people with diabetes mellitus and a systolic blood pressure more than 140 mm Hg. If systolic blood pressure is less than 140 mm Hg, however, further treatment is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular death, with no observed benefit.
Project description:Cardiovascular disease risk factors, including age, hypertension, and diabetes, contribute to aortic stiffness and subclinical cardiovascular and brain disease, increasing dementia risk. Aortic stiffness, measured by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), reduces the buffering of pulsatile blood flow, exposing cerebral small arteries to microvascular damage. High cfPWV is related to white matter hyperintensities and brain amyloid deposition, and to cognitive decline, but it is unclear whether cfPWV independently predicts incident dementia. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that cfPWV predicts incident dementia in older adults, independent of potential confounders. The Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study followed 532 non-demented older adults with annual cognitive exams from 1998-99 through 2013. CfPWV was measured on 356 (mean age = 78, 59% women) between 1996-2000. Over 15 years, 212 (59.6%) developed dementia (median time from cfPWV measurement = 4 years). In age and sex-adjusted Cox models, cfPWV was significantly associated with increased risk of dementia, but systolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure and pulse pressure were not. CfPWV (transformed as - 1/cfPWV) remained significantly associated with dementia risk when further adjusted for education, race, APOE?4, diabetes, body mass index, mean arterial pressure, and anti-hypertensive medication (hazard ratio = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.02, 2.51). Results were similar when further adjusted for baseline global cognition, subclinical brain measures, and coronary artery calcification. Finally, higher cfPWV was related to lower physical activity intensity and higher systolic blood pressure, heart rate, and waist circumference measured 5 years prior. An important unanswered question is whether interventions to slow arterial stiffening can reduce the risk of dementia.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To investigate the role of body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour in explaining the effect of education on the risk of cardiovascular disease outcomes. DESIGN:Mendelian randomisation study. SETTING:UK Biobank and international genome-wide association study data. PARTICIPANTS:Predominantly participants of European ancestry. EXPOSURE:Educational attainment, BMI, systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour in observational analysis, and randomly allocated genetic variants to instrument these traits in mendelian randomisation. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURE:The risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular disease (all subtypes; all measured in odds ratio), and the degree to which this is mediated through BMI, systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour respectively. RESULTS:Each additional standard deviation of education (3.6 years) was associated with a 13% lower risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.89) in observational analysis and a 37% lower risk (0.63, 0.60 to 0.67) in mendelian randomisation analysis. As a proportion of the total risk reduction, BMI was estimated to mediate 15% (95% confidence interval 13% to 17%) and 18% (14% to 23%) in the observational and mendelian randomisation estimates, respectively. Corresponding estimates were 11% (9% to 13%) and 21% (15% to 27%) for systolic blood pressure and 19% (15% to 22%) and 34% (17% to 50%) for smoking behaviour. All three risk factors combined were estimated to mediate 42% (36% to 48%) and 36% (5% to 68%) of the effect of education on coronary heart disease in observational and mendelian randomisation analyses, respectively. Similar results were obtained when investigating the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS:BMI, systolic blood pressure, and smoking behaviour mediate a substantial proportion of the protective effect of education on the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and intervening on these would lead to reductions in cases of cardiovascular disease attributable to lower levels of education. However, more than half of the protective effect of education remains unexplained and requires further investigation.
Project description:Background How measures of long-term exposure to elevated blood pressure might add to the performance of "current" blood pressure in predicting future cardiovascular disease is unclear. We compared incident cardiovascular disease risk prediction using past, current, and usual systolic blood pressure alone or in combination. Methods and Results Using data from UK primary care linked electronic health records, we applied a landmark cohort study design and identified 80 964 people, aged 50 years (derivation cohort=64 772; validation cohort=16 192), who, at study entry, had recorded blood pressure, no prior cardiovascular disease, and no previous antihypertensive or lipid-lowering prescriptions. We used systolic blood pressure recorded up to 10 years before baseline to estimate past systolic blood pressure (mean, time-weighted mean, and variability) and usual systolic blood pressure (correcting current values for past time-dependent blood pressure fluctuations) and examined their prospective relation with incident cardiovascular disease (first hospitalization for or death from coronary heart disease or stroke/transient ischemic attack). We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and applied Bayesian analysis within a machine learning framework in model development and validation. Predictive performance of models was assessed using discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration metrics. We found that elevated past, current, and usual systolic blood pressure values were separately and independently associated with increased incident cardiovascular disease risk. When used alone, the hazard ratio (95% credible interval) per 20-mm Hg increase in current systolic blood pressure was 1.22 (1.18-1.30), but associations were stronger for past systolic blood pressure (mean and time-weighted mean) and usual systolic blood pressure (hazard ratio ranging from 1.39-1.45). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for a model that included current systolic blood pressure, sex, smoking, deprivation, diabetes mellitus, and lipid profile was 0.747 (95% credible interval, 0.722-0.811). The addition of past systolic blood pressure mean, time-weighted mean, or variability to this model increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% credible interval) to 0.750 (0.727-0.811), 0.750 (0.726-0.811), and 0.748 (0.723-0.811), respectively, with all models showing good calibration. Similar small improvements in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were observed when testing models on the validation cohort, in sex-stratified analyses, or by using different landmark ages (40 or 60 years). Conclusions Using multiple blood pressure recordings from patients' electronic health records showed stronger associations with incident cardiovascular disease than a single blood pressure measurement, but their addition to multivariate risk prediction models had negligible effects on model performance.