Arsenic Exposure and Predicted 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Using the Pooled Cohort Equations in U.S. Hypertensive Adults.
ABSTRACT: This study was to evaluate the association of urine arsenic with predicted 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in U.S. adults with hypertension. Cross-sectional analysis was conducted in 1570 hypertensive adults aged 40-79 years in the 2003-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) with determinations of urine arsenic. Predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was estimated by the Pooled Cohort Equations, developed by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association in 2013. For men, after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, urine dilution, ASCVD risk factors and organic arsenic intake from seafood, participants in the highest quartiles of urine arsenic had higher 10-year predicted ASCVD risk than in the lowest quartiles; the increases were 24% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2%, 53%) for total arsenic, 13% (95% CI: 2%, 25%) for dimethylarsinate and 22% (95% CI: 5%, 40%) for total arsenic minus arsenobetaine separately. For women, the corresponding increases were 5% (95% CI: -15%, 29%), 10% (95% CI: -8%, 30%) and 0% (95% CI: -15%, 19%), respectively. Arsenic exposure, even at low levels, may contribute to increased ASCVD risk in men with hypertension. Furthermore, our findings suggest that particular circumstances need urgently to be considered while elucidating cardiovascular effects of low inorganic arsenic levels.
Project description:Clinical guidelines recommend using predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk to inform treatment decisions. The objective was to compare the contribution of changes in modifiable risk factors versus aging to the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk.A prospective follow-up was done of the Jackson Heart Study, an exclusively black cohort at visit 1 (2000-2004) and visit 3 (2009-2012). Analyses included 1115 black participants without high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk (<7.5%), hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or ASCVD at visit 1. We used the Pooled Cohort equations to calculate the incidence of high (?7.5%) 10-year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3. We recalculated the percentage with high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk at visit 3 assuming each risk factor (age, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes mellitus, smoking, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), one at a time, did not change from visit 1. The mean age at visit 1 was 45.2±9.5 years. Overall, 30.9% (95% CI 28.3-33.4%) of participants developed high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk. Aging accounted for 59.7% (95% CI 54.2-65.1%) of the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk compared with 32.8% (95% CI 27.0-38.2%) for increases in systolic blood pressure or antihypertensive medication initiation and 12.8% (95% CI 9.6-16.5%) for incident diabetes mellitus. Among participants <50 years, the contribution of increases in systolic blood pressure or antihypertensive medication initiation was similar to aging.Increases in systolic blood pressure and antihypertensive medication initiation are major contributors to the development of high 10-year predicted ASCVD risk in blacks, particularly among younger adults.
Project description:Whether the benefit of intensive blood pressure (BP) control reduces atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk without increasing risks of serious adverse events (SAEs) is unknown. We sought to assess differences in incident ASCVD and SAE with intensive BP control across the spectrum of 10-year ASCVD risk in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT). SPRINT randomized 9,361 participants who were ?50years old and ?1 CVD risk factor to standard or intensive BP control (<120 or 130 to 139mm Hg). We excluded adults with clinical ASCVD or age ?80. We included 6,875 participants. We compared hazard ratios (HR) and risk differences (RD) of incident ASCVD events or SAEs in all and across quartiles of baseline risk. Median predicted ASCVD risk was 15.9%. Intensive BP control significantly reduced ASCVD events (HR 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.58, 0.97, p?=?0.03; RD -0.94; -1.8, -0.1; p?=?0.03). There was no difference in effect across quartiles of ASCVD risk. There was a non-significant increase in SAE with intensive BP control (HR 1.08, 1.00, 1.17 p?=?0.06; RD 2.1, -0.1, 4.4, p?=?0.03), and no difference in this effect across quartiles of risk. In SPRINT participants without baseline clinical ASCVD, the benefit of intensive BP control for primary prevention of ASCVD may extend to lower risk participants without an increase in SAE. In conclusion, lower risk adults with stage 1 hypertension meeting SPRINT eligibility may benefit from initiation of antihypertensives.
Project description:This study aims to determine the distribution of observed atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) incidence in contemporary cohorts in China, and to identify cut-off points for ASCVD risk classification based on traditional criteria and new equations developed by Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR).The study populations included cohorts in the China-PAR project, with 34,757 participants eligible for the current analysis. Traditional risk stratification was assessed by using Chinese guidelines on prevention of CVD and hypertension, and 5 risk groups were classified based on these guidelines after slight modification for available risk factors. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to obtain the cumulative incidence of observed ASCVD events for all subjects and sub-groups. The predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was obtained using the China-PAR equations.A total of 1922 ASCVD events were identified during an average follow-up of 14.1 years. According to the group classification based on traditional risk stratification, the observed 10-year risks for ASCVD were 4.61% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.11-5.10%) in the moderate-risk group and 8.74% (95% CI: 7.82-9.66%) in the high-risk group. Based on the China-PAR equations for risk assessment of ASCVD, those with predicted risks of <5%, 5-10%, and ?10% could be classified into categories of low-, moderate-, and high-risk for ASCVD, respectively.The findings enable development of a simple method for classification of individuals into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, based on the China-PAR equations. The method will be useful for self-management and prevention of ASCVD in Chinese adults.
Project description:Background To externally validate the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (PAR) risk equation for predicting the 5-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in the Uyghur and Kazakh populations from rural areas in northwestern China and compare its performance with those of the pooled cohort equations (PCE) and Framingham risk score (FRS). Methods The final analysis included 3347 subjects aged 40–74?years without CVD at baseline. The 5-year ASCVD risk was calculated using the PAR, PCE, and FRS. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the three equations in predicting the 5-year ASCVD risk were assessed before and after recalibration. Results Of 3347 included subjects, 1839 were female. We observed 286 ASCVD events in within 5-year follow-up. All three risk equations had moderate discrimination in both men and women. C-indices of PAR, PCE, and FRS were 0.727 (95% CI, 0.725–0.729), 0.727 (95% CI, 0.725–0.729), and 0.740 (95% CI, 0.738–0.742), respectively, in men; the corresponding C-indices were 0.738 (95% CI, 0.737–0.739), 0.731 (95% CI, 0.730–0.732), and 0.761 (95% CI, 0.760–0.762), respectively, in women. PCE, PAR and FRS substantially underestimated the 5-year ASCVD risk in women by 70, 23 and 51%, respectively. However, PAR and FRS fairly predicted the risk in men and PAR was well calibrated. The calibrations of the three risk equations could be changed by recalibration. The decision curve analyses demonstrated that at the threshold risk of 5%, PCE was the most clinically useful in both men and women after recalibration. Conclusions All three risk equations underestimated the 5-year ASCVD risk in women, while PAR and FRS fairly predicted that in men. However, the results of predictive performances for three risk equations are inconsistent, more accurate risk equations are required in the primary prevention of ASCVD aiming to this Uyghur and Kazakh populations.
Project description:Long-term arsenic exposure is a major global health problem. However, few epidemiologic studies have evaluated the association of arsenic with kidney measures. Our objective was to evaluate the cross-sectional association between inorganic arsenic exposure and albuminuria in American Indian adults from rural areas of Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota.Cross-sectional. SETTING & PARTIPANTS: Strong Heart Study locations in Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota. 3,821 American Indian men and women aged 45-74 years with urine arsenic and albumin measurements.Urine arsenic.Urine albumin-creatinine ratio and albuminuria status.Arsenic exposure was estimated by measuring total urine arsenic and urine arsenic species using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICPMS) and high-performance liquid chromatography-ICPMS, respectively. Urine albumin was measured by automated nephelometric immunochemistry.The prevalence of albuminuria (albumin-creatinine ratio ?30 mg/g) was 30%. Median value for the sum of inorganic and methylated arsenic species was 9.7 (IQR, 5.8-15.6) ?g per gram of creatinine. Multivariable-adjusted prevalence ratios of albuminuria (albumin-creatinine ratio ?30 mg/g) comparing the 3 highest to lowest quartiles of the sum of inorganic and methylated arsenic species were 1.16 (95% CI, 1.00-1.34), 1.24 (95% CI, 1.07-1.43), and 1.55 (95% CI, 1.35-1.78), respectively (P for trend <0.001). The association between urine arsenic and albuminuria was observed across all participant subgroups evaluated and was evident for both micro- and macroalbuminuria.The cross-sectional design cannot rule out reverse causation.Increasing urine arsenic concentrations were cross-sectionally associated with increased albuminuria in a rural US population with a high burden of diabetes and obesity. Prospective epidemiologic and mechanistic evidence is needed to understand the role of arsenic as a kidney disease risk factor.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Among individuals without hypertension based on clinic blood pressure (BP), it is unclear who should be screened for masked hypertension, defined as having hypertension based on out-of-clinic BP. We hypothesized that individuals with a higher 10-year predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, calculated using the pooled cohort risk equations, have a higher prevalence of masked hypertension. METHODS AND RESULTS:We analyzed data from the Jackson Heart Study-a population-based cohort of blacks-to determine the association of predicted ASCVD risk with masked hypertension. The sample included 644 participants, 40 to 79 years of age, with clinic systolic/diastolic BP <140/90 mm Hg, who completed ambulatory BP monitoring, were free of cardiovascular disease, and had data on factors needed to calculate ASCVD risk. Ten-year predicted ASCVD risk was calculated using the pooled cohort risk equations. Any masked hypertension was defined as masked daytime hypertension (mean daytime systolic/diastolic BP ?135/85 mm Hg), masked nighttime hypertension (mean nighttime systolic/diastolic BP ?120/70 mm Hg), or masked 24-hour hypertension (mean 24-hour systolic/diastolic BP ?130/80 mm Hg). The prevalence of any masked hypertension was 54.0%. Compared with participants in the lowest (<5%) predicted ASCVD risk category, multivariable-adjusted prevalence ratios (95% confidence interval) for any masked hypertension were 1.36 (1.03-1.79), 1.62 (1.22-2.16), and 1.91 (1.47-2.48) for those with ASCVD risk of 5% to <7.5%, 7.5% to <10%, and ?10%, respectively. The C statistic for discriminating between participants with versus without any masked hypertension was 0.681 (95% confidence interval, 0.640-0.723) for ASCVD risk and 0.703 (95% confidence interval, 0.663-0.744) for clinic systolic BP and diastolic BP. CONCLUSIONS:Higher ASCVD risk was associated with an increased prevalence of masked hypertension. Although the discrimination of ASCVD risk for masked hypertension was not superior to clinic BP, risk prediction equations may be useful for identifying the subgroup of individuals with both masked hypertension and high predicted ASCVD risk.
Project description:Background Reproductive events, that is, a preterm birth (PTB), small-for-gestational-age infant (SGA), and vasomotor symptoms of menopause, are associated with subclinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We evaluated whether women with a past PTB and/or SGA (henceforth PTB/SGA) were more likely to have severe vasomotor symptoms of menopause and whether the estimated 10-year ASCVD risk was higher in women with PTB/SGA and vasomotor exposures. Methods and Results We assigned 1866 women (mean age=55±1 years) in the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study to the following categories of reproductive exposures: none, PTB/SGA only, vasomotor symptoms only, or both PTB/SGA and vasomotor symptoms. We used Kruskal-Wallis tests to evaluate the differences in pooled cohort equation ASCVD risk scores by category and linear regression to evaluate the associations of categories with ASCVD risk scores adjusted for study center, body mass index, education, current hormone replacement therapy use, parity, and hysterectomy. Women with PTB/SGA were more likely to have severe vasomotor symptoms, 36% versus 30%, P<0.02. ASCVD risk score was higher in women with both PTB/SGA and vasomotor symptoms (4.6%; 95% CI, 4.1%-5.1%) versus women with no exposures (3.3%; 95% CI, 2.9%-3.7%) or vasomotor symptoms only (3.8%; 95% CI, 3.5%-4.0%). ASCVD risk score was higher in women PTB/SGA (4.8%; 95% CI, 3.6%-5.9%) versus no exposures. PTB/SGA and vasomotor symptoms was associated with ASCVD risk score in white women versus no exposures (?=0.40; 95% CI, 0.02-0.78). Conclusions Women with prior PTB/SGA were more likely to have severe vasomotor symptoms of menopause. Reproductive exposures were associated with an estimated 10-year ASCVD risk in white women.
Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIMS:South Asian (SA) individuals are thought to represent a group that is at high-risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, the performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) remains uncertain in SAs living in the US. We aimed to study the interplay between predicted 10-year ASCVD risk and coronary artery calcium (CAC) in SAs compared to other racial/ethnic groups. METHODS:We studied 536 SAs from the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) study, and 2073 Non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs), 1514 African Americans (AAs), 1254 Hispanics, and 671 Chinese Americans (CAs) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) who were not currently on statins. We used logistic regression models to assess the association between race/ethnicity and CAC within each ASCVD risk stratum. RESULTS:SAs at low and at intermediate estimated ASCVD risk were more likely to have CAC?=?0 compared to NHWs, while SAs at high risk had a similar CAC burden to NHWs. For example, intermediate-risk SAs had a 73% higher odds of CAC?=?0 compared to NHWs (95% 1.00-2.99), while high-risk SAs were equally likely to have CAC?=?0 (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.65-1.38) and CAC >100 (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.61-1.22). CONCLUSIONS:Our results suggest that the extent of ASCVD risk overestimation using the PCEs may be even greater among SAs considered at low and intermediate risk than among NHWs. Studies with incident ASCVD events are required to validate and/or recalibrate current ASCVD risk prediction tools in this group.
Project description:<b>Objective: </b>Examine atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores by age and weight status in career firefighters.<br><br><b>Methods: </b>Medical examinations for firefighters more than or equal to 40 years (n?=?644) were examined. ASCVD 10-year risk scores were calculated from sex- and race-specific equations and were reported by three age (40 to 44.9, 45 to 49.9, more than or equal to 50 years) and weight (normal, overweight, obese) categories.<br><br><b>Results: </b>Mean risk scores were 1.8%, 3.5%, and 6.2% for firefighters 40 to 44.9, 45 to 49.9, and more than or equal to 50 years, respectively. The association of weight status with increased ASCVD risk was higher (P?<?0.01) among older firefighters, where risk was 0.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6 to 1.1) and 2.3% (95% CI: 2.0 to 2.6) among normal versus obese 40 to 44.9 year olds, and 4.1% (95% CI: 3.1 to 5.3) and 7.8% (95% CI: 6.7 to 8.9) among normal versus obese more than or equal to 50 year olds.<br><br><b>Conclusions: </b>While firefighters cannot avoid aging, physicians should counsel firefighters with weight-maintenance or weight-loss advice to prevent and manage elevated ASCVD risk.
Project description:BACKGROUND:In the general population, the majority of cardiovascular events occur in people at the low to moderate end of population risk distribution. The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline on the treatment of blood cholesterol recommends consideration of statin therapy for adults with an estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk ?7.5% based on traditional risk factors. Whether use of nontraditional risk markers can improve risk assessment in those below this threshold for statin therapy is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS:Using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a population sample free of clinical CVD at baseline, we calibrated the Pooled Cohort Equations (cPCE). ASCVD was defined as myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. Adults with an initial cPCE <7.5% and elevated levels of additional risk markers (abnormal test) whose new calculated risk was ?7.5% were considered statin eligible: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ?160 mg/dL; family history of ASCVD; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ?2 mg/dL; coronary artery calcium score ?300 Agatston units or ?75th percentile for age, sex, and ethnicity; and ankle-brachial index <0.9. We compared the absolute and relative ASCVD risks among those with versus without elevated posttest estimated risk. We calculated the number needed to screen to identify 1 person with abnormal test for each risk marker, defined as the number of participants with baseline cPCE risk <7.5% divided by the number with an abnormal test reclassified as statin eligible. Of 5185 participants not taking statins with complete data (age, 45-84 years), 4185 had a cPCE risk <7.5%. During 10 years of follow-up, 57% of the ASCVD events (183 of 320) occurred among adults with a cPCE risk <7.5%. When people with diabetes mellitus were excluded, the coronary artery calcium criterion reclassified 6.8% upward, with an event rate of 13.3%, absolute risk of 10%, relative risk of 4.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-5.7), and number needed to screen of 14.7. The corresponding numbers for family history of ASCVD were 4.6%, 15.1%, 12%, 4.3 (95% CI, 3.0-6.4), and 21.8; for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein criteria, 2.6%, 10%, 6%, 2.6 (95% CI, 1.4-4.8), and 39.2; for ankle-brachial index criteria, 0.6%, 9%, 5%, 2.3 (95% CI, 0.6-8.6), and 176.5; and for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol criteria, 0.5%, 5%, 1%, 1.2 (95% CI, 0.2-8.4), and 193.3, respectively. Of the 3882 with <7.5% cPCE risk, 431 (11.1%) were reclassified to ?7.5% (statin eligible) by at least 1 of the additional risk marker criteria. CONCLUSIONS:In this generally low-risk population sample, a large proportion of ASCVD events occurred among adults with a 10-year cPCE risk <7.5%. We found that the coronary artery calcium score, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, family history of ASCVD, and ankle-brachial index recommendations by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines (Class IIB) identify small subgroups of asymptomatic population with a 10-year cPCE risk <7.5% but with observed ASCVD event rates >7.5% who may warrant statin therapy considerations.