Similar Risk Patterns After Cervical Screening in Two Large U.S. Populations: Implications for Clinical Guidelines.
ABSTRACT: To compare the risks of histologic high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) or worse after different cervical cancer screening test results between two of the largest U.S. clinical practice research data sets.The New Mexico Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Pap Registry is a statewide registry representing a diverse population experiencing varied clinical practice delivery. Kaiser Permanente Northern California is a large integrated health care delivery system practicing routine HPV cotesting since 2003. In this retrospective cohort study, a logistic-Weibull survival model was used to estimate and compare the cumulative 3- and 5-year risks of histologic CIN 3 or worse among women aged 21-64 years screened in 2007-2011 in the New Mexico HPV Pap Registry and 2003-2013 in Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Results were stratified by age and baseline screening result: negative cytology, atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) (with or without HPV triage), low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion.There were 453,618 women in the New Mexico HPV Pap Registry and 1,307,528 women at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. The 5-year CIN 3 or worse risks were similar within screening results across populations: cytology negative (0.52% and 0.30%, respectively, P<.001), HPV-negative and ASC-US (0.72% and 0.49%, respectively, P=.5), ASC-US (3.4% and 3.4%, respectively, P=.8), HPV-positive and ASC-US (7.7% and 7.1%, respectively, P=.3), low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (6.5% and 5.4%, respectively, P=.009), and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (53.1% and 50.4%, respectively, P=.2). Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse risks and 3-year risks had similar trends across populations. Age-stratified analyses showed more variability, especially among women aged younger than 30 years, but patterns of risk stratification were comparable.Current U.S. cervical screening and management recommendations are based on comparative risks of histologic high-grade CIN after screening test results. The similar results from these two large cohorts from different real-life clinical practice settings support risk-based management thresholds across U.S. clinical populations and practice settings.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:In 2012, the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) and a consensus of 25 organizations endorsed concurrent cytology and human papillomavirus (HPV) testing ("cotesting") for cervical cancer screening. Past screening and management guidelines were implicitly based on risks defined by Pap-alone, without consideration of HPV test results. To promote management that is consistent with accepted practice, new guidelines incorporating cotesting should aim to achieve equal management of women at equal risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and cancer (CIN 3+). METHODS:We estimated cumulative 5-year risks of CIN 3+ for 965,360 women aged 30 to 64 years undergoing cotesting at Kaiser Permanente Northern California over 2003 to 2010. We calculated the implicit risk thresholds for Pap-alone and applied them for new management guidance on HPV and Pap cotesting, citing 2 examples: HPV-positive/atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) and HPV-negative/Pap-negative. We call this guidance process "benchmarking." RESULTS:A low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion result, for which immediate colposcopy is prescribed, carries a 5-year CIN 3+ risk of 5.2%, suggesting that test results with similar risks should be managed with colposcopy. Similarly, ASC-US (2.6% risk) is managed with a 6- to 12-month follow-up visit and Pap-negative (0.26% risk) is managed with a 3-year follow-up visit. The 5-year CIN 3+ risk for women with HPV-positive/ASC-US was 6.8% (95% confidence interval = 6.2%-7.6%). This is greater than the 5.2% risk implicitly leading to referral to colposcopy, consistent with current management recommendations that HPV-positive/ASC-US should be referred for immediate colposcopy. The 5-year CIN 3+ risk for women with HPV-negative/Pap-negative was 0.08% (95% confidence interval = 0.07%-0.09%), far below the 0.26% implicitly required for a 3-year return and justifying a longer (e.g., 5-year) return. CONCLUSIONS:Using the principle of "equal management of equal risks," benchmarking to implicit risk thresholds based on Pap-alone can be used to achieve safe and consistent incorporation of cotesting.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Cervical cancer is caused by persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. US consensus management guidelines for a positive cervical screening result typically focus on the current screening result only. A negative testing history may alter risk of the following positive screening results, caused by a new HPV infection, and therefore its optimal management. METHODS:Women ages 30?years and older were screened with triennial HPV and cytology co-testing at Kaiser Permanente Northern California from 2003 to 2014. We estimated the subsequent 5-year risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or more severe diagnoses (CIN3+) in a cohort of 1 156 387 women following abnormal (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US] or worse) cytology and/or positive HPV testing, when the test result followed 0 (n?=?990 013), 1 (n?=?543 986), 2 (n?=?245 974), or 3 (n?=?79 946) consecutive negative co-test(s). All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS:Following 0-3 successive negative co-tests, 5-year CIN3+ risks following a positive HPV test decreased progressively from 7.2% (95% CI =?7.0% to 7.4%) to 1.5% (95% CI?=?0.7% to 3.4%) (Ptrend?<?.001). Similarly, risks following an abnormal (ASC-US or worse) cytology result decreased from 6.6% (95% CI?=?6.4% to 6.9%) to 1.1% (95% CI?=?0.5% to 2.3%) (Ptrend?<?.001). Risks following low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, the risk threshold for referral to colposcopy in the United States, decreased from 5.2% (95% CI?=?4.7% to 5.7%) to 0.9% (95% CI?=?0.2% to 4.3%). Risks following high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or more severe, a specific marker for the presence of precancerous lesions, decreased from 50.0% (95% CI?=?47.5% to 52.5%) to 10.0% (95% CI?=?2.6% to 34.4%). CONCLUSIONS:Following one or more sequential antecedent, documented negative co-tests or HPV tests, women with HPV-positive ASC-US or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion might have sufficiently low CIN3+ risk that they do not need colposcopy referral and might instead undergo 6-12-month surveillance for evidence of higher risk before being referred to colposcopy.
Project description:To determine whether triage for atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) from the updated American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology cervical cancer screening guidelines is applicable in Korean women.We investigated women with ASC-US or LSIL including referred from local hospitals visited for cervical cancer screening at Korea University Guro Hospital from February 2004 to December 2014. Detailed information on the results of Papanicolaou (Pap) smears, human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA tests, and cervical biopsies were collected through chart review. Cervical biopsy results were compared in eligible women according to individual Pap smear findings and HPV DNA status.Of 216,723 possible cases, 3,196 were included. There were 212 (6.6%) women with ASC-US and 500 (15.6%) with LSIL. The risk of ≥cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 was significantly higher in women who were ASC-US/HPV+ than ASC-US/HPV- and LSIL/HPV+ than LSIL/HPV- (93.3% vs. 6.7% and 96.7% vs. 3.3%, P<0.001 and P<0.001, respectively). The risk of ≥CIN 3 was also significantly higher in women who were ASC-US/HPV+ than ASC-US/HPV- and LSIL/HPV+ than LSIL/HPV- (97.0% vs. 3.0% and 93.0% vs. 7.0%, P<0.001 and P<0.001, respectively). Age-stratified analysis revealed that more CIN 2 or CIN 3 was diagnosed in women aged 30 to 70 with ASC-US or LSIL when HPV DNA was present.Observation with Pap and HPV DNA tests rather than immediate colposcopy is a reasonable strategy for ASC-US or LSIL when the HPV DNA test is negative, especially in women aged 30 to 70. Reflection of these results should be considered in future Korean screening guidelines.
Project description:<h4>Introduction</h4>The 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines include recommendations for partial human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping in management of abnormal cervical cancer screening results. The guidelines are based on matching estimates of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3+ risk to consensus clinical action thresholds. In support of the guidelines, this analysis addresses the risks predicted by individual identification of HPV 16 and HPV 18.<h4>Methods</h4>Risk estimates were drawn from a subset of women in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California screening program, whose residual cervical specimens were HPV typed as part of the HPV Persistence and Progression study. We calculated risk of CIN 3+ to assess how identification of HPV 16, HPV 18, or 12 other "high-risk" HPV types would influence recommended clinical management of new abnormal screening results, taking into account current cytologic results and recent screening history. Immediate and/or 5-year risks of CIN 3+ were matched to clinical actions identified in the guidelines.<h4>Results</h4>Identification of HPV 16 at the first visit including HPV testing elevated immediate risk of diagnosing CIN 3+ sufficiently to mandate colposcopic referral even when cytology was Negative for Intraepithelial Lesions or Malignancy and to support a preference for treatment of cytologic high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion. HPV 18 less clearly elevated CIN 3+ risk.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Identification of HPV 16 clearly mandated consideration in clinical management of new abnormal screening results. HPV 18 positivity must be considered as a special situation because of established disproportionate risk of invasive cancer. More detailed genotyping and use beyond initial management will be considered in guideline updates.
Project description:<h4>Objectives</h4>To determine clinical utility of Onclarity human papillomavirus (HPV) assay for atypical squamous cells-undetermined significance (ASC-US) triage, and the value of HPV genotyping within ASC-US.<h4>Methods</h4>Women (n = 33,858; 21 years or older) had HPV testing using Onclarity and Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2). ASC-US individuals (n = 1,960, 5.8%) were referred to colposcopy.<h4>Results</h4>Of ASC-US, 39.1% were HPV positive by Onclarity; HPV 16 was the most prevalent genotype (7.4%). Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN 2) and CIN 3+ prevalences were 4.4% and 2.2%, respectively. Onclarity had sensitivity for CIN 2+ (85.7%) and CIN 3+ (91.4%), and specificities for CIN 2+ (64.1%) and CIN 3+ (62.0%), similar to HC2. Risks for CIN 3+ were 16.1%, 2.8%, 2.5%, and 2.7% with HPV 16, 18, 45, and 11 other genotypes, respectively.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Onclarity is clinically validated for ASC-US triage. Through risk stratification, genotyping could help identify women at highest risk for CIN 3+.
Project description:Clinical guidelines for cervical cancer screening have incorporated comparative risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3(+)) for various screening outcomes to determine management. Few cohorts are large enough to distinguish CIN3(+) risks among women with minor abnormalities versus negative cytology because of low incidence. The New Mexico Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Pap Registry offers a unique opportunity to evaluate cervical cancer screening in a diverse population across a broad-spectrum of health service delivery.Kaplan-Meier and logistic-Weibull survival models were used to estimate cumulative risks of CIN3(+) among women ages 21 to 64 who were screened in New Mexico between 2007 and 2011 with negative, equivocal or mildly abnormal cytology, that is, atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US; with or without HPV triage), or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL).We identified 452,045 women meeting the selection criteria. The 3-year CIN3(+) risks for women with negative, ASC-US, and LSIL cytology were 0.30%, 2.6%, and 5.2%, respectively. HPV triage of ASC-US stratified 3-year CIN3(+) risks were 0.72% for HPV-negative and 7.7% for HPV-positive. Risks tended to decline after age 30 for all screening results.In this state-wide population-based cohort, cytology and HPV triage of ASC-US stratified women's CIN3(+) risk into similar patterns observed previously, suggesting the validity of screening guidelines for diverse populations in the United States. Absolute risk estimates should be compared across other large populations.Strategies for HPV triage of ASC-US derived from clinical trials are upheld in large clinical practice settings and across diverse screening populations in the United States.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the performance of routine endocervical curettage (ECC) for diagnosing high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 or worse and additional precancers not otherwise detected by ectocervical biopsies. METHODS:In a secondary analysis of the Biopsy Study, a cross-sectional study conducted between 2009 and 2012 at the University of Oklahoma Health and Sciences Center that found an incremental increase in detection of cervical precancers by multiple biopsies at colposcopy, ECC was performed in most women aged 30 years or older. Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or worse yield by ECC alone was evaluated in analyses stratified by cervical cytology (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US] or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions [LSIL] compared with atypical squamous cells, cannot exclude high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions [ASC-H] or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions [HSIL] or worse), colposcopic impression (less than high-grade compared with high-grade), human papillomavirus (HPV)-16 infection status, whether the examination was satisfactory, and by ECC indications per the current guidelines for cervical cancer screening. The diagnostic value of ECC for detecting additional disease was evaluated by the number of lesion-directed ectocervical biopsies. RESULTS:Of the 204 women aged 30 years or older, 181 (88.7%) underwent ECC. Overall ECC detected 14.4% CIN 2 or worse (95% CI 10.0-20.2%). Endocervical curettage was more likely to find disease in the endocervix among women with high-grade cytology, positive HPV-16 infection, or high-grade colposcopic impressions (respective P values <.05). Among women with ASC-US or LSIL cytology, those with an unsatisfactory examination had a 13.0% CIN 2 or worse yield on ECC (95% CI 6.1-25.7); when colposcopic examination was normal or satisfactory with visible abnormal lesions, ECC detected less than 5% CIN 2 or worse in the endocervix. An ASC-H or HSIL or worse cytology was associated with a CIN 2 or worse yield of 25.8% by ECC (95% CI 16.6-37.9%). However, ECC found only 3.9% (95% CI 1.9-7.8%) additional CIN 2 or worse beyond the cumulative disease detected by up to four biopsies of visible acetowhite ectocervical lesions. Additional CIN 2 or worse yield by ECC increased when fewer lesion-directed biopsies were taken (P<.05). CONCLUSION:The additional yield of CIN 2 or worse by ECC in a colposcopy with up to four ectocervical biopsies was low. Based on our findings, we recommend routine ECC be performed in women aged 45 years old or older with HPV-16 infection and in any woman aged 30 years or older with HSIL or worse or ASC-H cytology, high-grade colposcopic impression, or ASC-US or LSIL cytology and an unsatisfactory examination. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00339989.
Project description:Determining cervical precancer risk among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women who despite a normal Pap test are positive for oncogenic human papillomavirus (oncHPV) types is important for setting screening practices.A total of 2791 HIV-infected and 975 HIV-uninfected women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study were followed semiannually with Pap tests and colposcopy. Cumulative risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or greater (CIN-2+; threshold used for CIN treatment) and grade 3 or greater (CIN-3+; threshold to set screening practices) were measured in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women with normal Pap tests, stratified by baseline HPV results, and also in HIV-infected women with a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL; benchmark indication for colposcopy).At baseline, 1021 HIV-infected and 518 HIV-uninfected women had normal Pap tests, of whom 154 (15%) and 27 (5%), respectively, tested oncHPV positive. The 5-year CIN-2+ cumulative risk in the HIV-infected oncHPV-positive women was 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9%-34%), 12% (95% CI, 0%-22%), and 14% (95% CI, 2%-25%) among those with CD4 counts <350, 350-499, and ?500 cells/µL, respectively, whereas it was 10% (95% CI, 0%-21%) in those without HIV. For CIN-3+, the cumulative risk averaged 4% (95% CI, 1%-8%) in HIV-infected oncHPV-positive women, and 10% (95% CI, 0%-23%) among those positive for HPV type 16. In HIV-infected women with LSIL, CIN-3+ risk was 7% (95% CI, 3%-11%). In multivariate analysis, HIV-infected HPV16-positive women had 13-fold (P = .001) greater CIN-3+ risk than oncHPV-negative women (referent), and HIV-infected women with LSIL had 9-fold (P < .0001) greater risk.HIV-infected women with a normal Pap result who test HPV16 positive have high precancer risk (similar to those with LSIL), possibly warranting immediate colposcopy. Repeat screening in 1 year may be appropriate if non-16 oncHPV is detected.
Project description:To investigate the risk of cervical precancer and cancer associated with detection of human papillomavirus (HPV) 6, 11, and 42.We used data from the New Mexico Human Papillomavirus Pap Registry. A stratified sample of 59,644 residual cervical cytology specimens from a population of 379,000 underwent HPV genotyping. We measured the 3-year cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe (CIN 2+) and grade 3 or more severe (CIN 3+) after detection of single HPV 6, 11, or 42 infections or single or multiple infections of HPV 6, 11, or 42 ("HPV 6, 11, 42, or combinations"; n=581).The overall prevalence of a single infection of HPV 6, 11, or 42 was 0.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7-0.9%). The 3-year risks of CIN 2+ and CIN 3+ after HPV 6, 11, 42, or combinations infections (n=581) were 0.4% (CI 0.1-0.7%) for CIN 2+ and 0.0% for CIN 3+ (nota bene, no CI was calculable because no events occurred), respectively. By comparison, the 3-year risks of CIN 2+ and CIN 3+ after a negative HPV result (n=27,522) were 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-0.2%) and 0.1% (95% CI 0.0-0.1%), respectively.Detection of HPV 6, 11, 42, or combinations in the absence of high-risk HPV types does not identify women at increased 3-year risk for cervical precancer. Testing for HPV 6, 11, 42, or combinations of those types should be discontinued because it has no proven benefit to patients.II.
Project description:The New Mexico HPV Pap Registry was established to measure the impact of cervical cancer prevention strategies in the United States. Before widespread human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine implementation, we established the baseline prevalence for a broad spectrum of HPV genotypes across the continuum of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer.A population-based sample of 6,272 tissue specimens was tested for 37 HPV genotypes. The number of specimens tested within each diagnostic category was: 541 negative, 1,411 CIN grade 1 (CIN1), 2,226 CIN grade 2 (CIN2), and 2,094 CIN grade 3 (CIN3) or greater. Age-specific HPV prevalence was estimated within categories for HPV genotypes targeted by HPV vaccines.The combined prevalence of HPV genotypes included in the quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines increased from 15.3% and 29.3% in CIN1 to 58.4% and 83.7% in CIN3, respectively. Prevalence of HPV types included in both vaccines tended to decrease with increasing age for CIN1, CIN2, CIN3, and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), most notably for CIN3 and SCC. The six most common HPV types in descending order of prevalence were HPV-16, -31, -52, -58, -33, and -39 for CIN3 and HPV-16, -18, -31, -45, -52, and -33 for invasive cancers.Health economic modeling of HPV vaccine impact should consider age-specific differences in HPV prevalence.Population-based HPV prevalence in CIN is not well described, but is requisite for longitudinal assessment of vaccine impact and to understand the effectiveness and performance of various cervical screening strategies in vaccinated and unvaccinated women.