Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in All 50 United States, From 2000 Through 2012.
ABSTRACT: The incidence and mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been reported to be plateauing in the United States. The United States has large racial, ethnic, and regional variation; we collected data from all 50 states to better analyze changes in HCC incidence in the entire United States.We collected data from the US Cancer Statistics registry, which covers 97% of the population, and calculated adjusted incidence rates. We assessed annual trends among sociodemographic and geographic subgroups using joinpoint analysis.HCC incidence increased from 4.4/100,000 in 2000 to 6.7/100,000 in 2012, increasing by 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3%-4.7%) annually between 2000 and 2009, but only by 0.7% annually (95% CI, -0.2% to 1.6%) from 2010 through 2012. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) between 2000 and 2012 was higher in men (increase, 3.7%) than in women (increase, 2.7%), and highest in 55- to 59-year-old individuals (AAPC, 8.9%; 95% CI, 7.1%-10.7%) and 60- to 64-year-old individuals (AAPC, 6.4%; 95% CI, 4.7%-8.2%). By 2012, rates in Hispanics surpassed those in Asians, and rates in Texas surpassed those in Hawaii (9.71/100,000 vs 9.68/100,000). Geographic variation within individual race and ethnic groups was observed, but rates were highest in all major race and ethnic groups in Texas.In an analysis of the incidence of HCC in all 50 US states, we found the rate of increase in HCC to have slowed from 2010 through 2012. However, incidence is increasing in subgroups such as men ages 55 to 64 years old-especially those born in the peak era of hepatitis C virus infection and among whites/Caucasians. Rates in Hispanics have surpassed those in Asian Americans. We observed geographic differences, with Texas having the highest age-adjusted HCC rates nationwide.
Project description:Cervical cancer (CC) is the leading cause of cancer death among female South Africans (SA). Improved access to reproductive health services following multi-ethnic democracy in 1994, HIV epidemic, and the initiation of CC population-based screening in early 2000s have influenced the epidemiology of CC in SA. We therefore evaluated the trends in CC age-standardised incidence (ASIR) (1994-2009) and mortality rates (ASMR) (2004-2012) using data from the South African National Cancer Registry and the Statistics South Africa, respectively. Five-year relative survival rates and average per cent change (AAPC) stratified by ethnicity and age-groups was determined. The average annual CC cases and mortalities were 4,694 (75,099 cases/16 years) and 2,789 (25,101 deaths/9 years), respectively. The ASIR was 22.1/100,000 in 1994 and 23.3/100,000 in 2009, with an average annual decline in incidence of 0.9% per annum (AAPC = -0.9%, p-value < 0.001). The ASMR decreased slightly by 0.6% per annum from 13.9/100,000 in 2004 to 13.1/100,000 in 2012 (AAPC = -0.6%, p-value < 0.001). In 2012, ASMR was 5.8-fold higher in Blacks than in Whites. The 5-year survival rates were higher in Whites and Indians/Asians (60-80%) than in Blacks and Coloureds (40-50%). The incidence rate increased (AAPC range: 1.1-3.1%, p-value < 0.001) among young women (25-34 years) from 2000 to 2009. Despite interventions, there were minimal changes in overall epidemiology of CC in SA but there were increased CC rates among young women and ethnic disparities in CC burden. A review of the CC national policy and directed CC prevention and treatment are required to positively impact the burden of CC in SA.
Project description:<h4>Background & aims</h4>Incidence rates for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) increased rapidly in the United States since the 1990s, but have plateaued or started to decrease in other industrialized countries. It unclear if and when a similar trend will be observed in the United States. We examined trends in HCC incidence rates in the United States by age, sex, and race/ethnicity of patients.<h4>Methods</h4>We calculated age-adjusted HCC incidence rates using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of cancer registries from 1992 through 2015. We estimated incidence rates by 10-year age group and used joinpoint regression to quantify the magnitude and direction of trends, overall and by sex and race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, and Asian/Pacific Islander).<h4>Results</h4>HCC incidence increased by 4.8% per year from 1992 through 2010 (from 4.1 per 100,000 to 9.4 per 100,000) but then started to plateau (annual percentage change, -0.7; 95% CI, -2.0 to 0.7). Incidence rates steadily increased among persons 60 years or older in all racial/ethnic groups except Asian/Pacific Islanders 70 to 79 years old. In contrast, incidence rates decreased in younger and middle-aged adults, in men and women of all races/ethnicities, beginning in the mid-2000s. Rates decreased by 6.2% per year in persons 40 to 49 years old and by 10.3% per year in persons 50 to 59 years old. Annual decreases in incidence were larger among middle-aged blacks (17.2% decrease per year since 2012) compared with adults of the same age in other racial/ethnic groups.<h4>Conclusions</h4>In an analysis of data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program of cancer registries from 1992 through 2015, we found the incidence of HCC to be decreasing among younger and middle-aged adults in the United States, regardless of sex, race, or ethnicity. It is unclear whether current decreases in incidence will reduce the burden of HCC in the future.
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To explore tuberculosis (TB) incidence in Canada and the United States from 1953 to 2015. In the most recent decade, the US incidence was lower than that of Canada. Since both countries are high income and have low TB incidence with similar TB surveillance programs, we hypothesized that rates should be similar. METHODS:TB incidence data from 1953 to 2015 were retrieved for both countries. Joinpoint regression was performed to identify change points in the trend, and direct standardization of US rates using Canadian ethnic population distribution was calculated. Adjusted rate and average annual percent change (AAPC) were estimated. RESULTS:Canada rates/100,000 were higher from 1953 to 1974 and similar from 1975 to 1985. This coincided with a change in US case definition in 1975. US rates were higher from 1986 to 1996. HIV/TB coinfection in the USA was 10.2% compared to that of Canada, 1.6%. Rates were similar from 1997 to 2004. Canada rates were again higher from 2005 to 2015. The Canada average AAPC rate in 1975-2015 was lower, -?2.9%, compared to that of the USA, -?4.1%. Foreign-born and Indigenous population proportions were 20.2% and 4.2% for Canada and 12.9% and 1.7% for the USA. The US rate adjusted to the Canada ethnic composition was 4.8 compared to the Canadian rate of 4.7. CONCLUSION:Case definition change and HIV coinfection contributed to the 1980 US rate increase. TB rates decreased in both countries from 1997, but more rapidly in the USA. The Canada proportion of foreign-born and Indigenous populations was higher. When US rates were standardized by Canada ethnic distribution, the national rates were similar. Further exploration of factors contributing to differences between these countries is needed.
Project description:A decline in breast cancer incidence has been attributed to the reduction in hormone replacement therapy (HRT) prescriptions since the publication of the landmark WHIT paper in 2003. Concurrently, a relationship between HRT and cerebrovascular disease incidence has also been suggested. No generalized analysis of HRT prescription rates and breast cancer incidence rates that included more than seven years of data. We hypothesized that detailed analysis of SEER data would clarify the relationship between HRT use and breast cancer incidence. Given the large decline in HRT prescription rates uncovered, analyses of potential complications were also conducted, with the understanding that a small effect or one limited to a subpopulation, such as a single race, might not be detected.Incidence rates (per 100,000 women) and standard errors for ductal and lobular breast carcinomas, and endometrioid /endometrial carcinomas in women over 50 years were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database 1992-2012. From the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey 1996-2012 weighted counts and standard errors of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) prescriptions for women over 50 years were obtained. Using the National Hospital Discharge Survey (NHDS), 1996-2010 weighted counts and standard errors of femoral neck fractures, total hip replacements, acute myocardial infarctions, and cerebral infarctions were obtained for 50+ year men and women. Weighted counts and standard errors were divided by US census figures and multiplied by 100,000. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze rates.Beginning 2001, HRT prescription rates dropped dramatically, 2001-2012 AAPC -14.9 (95% CI -17.4, -12.4). Breast cancer rates, which began to decline in 1999, increased after 2003; 2012 rates were similar to those seen in 2001 for both ductal, AAPC 0.1 (-0.4, 0.6) and lobular, AAPC 0.5 (-0.4, 1.5), carcinoma. Endometrial carcinoma rates increased, 2001-2012 AAPC 3.5 (3.1, 3.8), arguing against a negative effect of HRT discontinuation of endometrial carcinoma. Tests for parallelism failed to detect APC differences among genders for femoral neck fractures (P = 0.24), for total hip replacements (P = 0.11), for myocardial infarctions (P = 0.10), or for cerebral infarctions (P = 0.19), precluding any assignment of general effect on these disorders by HRT.Using SEER data, we demonstrated that changes in breast cancer rates cannot be explained by HRT prescription rate changes.
Project description:Pancreatic cancer induces a substantial global burden. We examined its global incidence/mortality rates and their correlation with socioeconomic development (Human Development Index [HDI] and Gross Domestic Product [GDP] in 2000 as proxy measures). Data on age-standardized incidence/mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns in 1998-2007 were assessed for 39 countries according to gender. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of the incidence/mortality trends was evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis. The age-standardized incidence ranged between 0.8-8.9/100,000. When compared among countries, Brazil (AAPC?=?10.4, 95%C.I.?=?0.8,21) and France (AAPC?=?4.7, 95%C.I.?=?3.6,5.9) reported the highest incidence rise in men. The greatest increase in women was reported in Thailand (AAPC?=?7, 95%C.I.?=?2.1,12.1) and Ecuador (AAPC?=?4.3, 95%C.I.?=?1.3,7.3). For mortality, the Philippines (APCC?=?4.3, 95%C.I.?=?2,6.6) and Croatia (AAPC?=?2, 95% C.I.?=?0,3.9) reported the biggest increase among men. The Philippines (AAPC?=?5.8, 95% C.I. 4.5,7.2) and Slovakia (AAPC?=?3.1, 95% C.I. 0.9,5.3) showed the most prominent rise among women. Its incidence was positively correlated with HDI (men: r?=?0.66; women: r?=?0.70) and GDP (men: r?=?0.29; women: r?=?0.28, all p?<?0.05), and similarly for mortality (men: r?=?0.67; women: r?=?0.72 [HDI]; men: r?=?0.23; women: r?=?0.28 [GDP]). In summary, the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer were rising in many countries, requiring regular surveillance.
Project description:Lung cancer is the commonly diagnosed cancer and one of the most important avoidable causes of death around the world. We conducted the study to investigate the pattern of lung cancer incidence worldwide. Joinpoint analysis was used to extend international lung cancer incidence rates by the latest data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents over the 35-year period 1973-2007 from 24 populations from Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) of lung cancer were from 33.3 to 66.8 per 100,000 among males and 10.5 to 37.4 per 100,000 among females in most of Americas, Europe, and Oceania populations during the period 2003-2007. In Asia, ASRs in China (Hong Kong) were the highest, up to 53.3 per 100,000 in males and 21.9 per 100,000 in females during the period 2003-2007. The international trends between 1973 and 2007 showed that ASRs of lung cancer among males were declining in 13 of 18 selected Americas, Oceania, and Europe populations, with AAPC from -0.7% to -2.9%, whereas the rates among females in 18 selected populations were increasing, with AAPC from 1.3% to 5.0%. The increasing and decreasing trends of ASRs of lung cancer in Asia have a geographic variation but no gender differences. Although the decreasing trends in ASRs of lung cancer for males were observed, the ASRs were higher than females. The declining trends in males were mainly attributed to tobacco control, whereas the increasing trends in females should be given more concern and need to be further studied in etiology factors.
Project description:The incidence of gastric cancer, while declining in many places worldwide, is characterized by considerable geographical variability. The USA has large racial, ethnic and regional variation; we collected data from all 50 states to better characterize recent changes in gastric cancer incidence nationwide.Annual gastric cancer incidence rates from 1999 to 2013 were extracted from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) registry. Secular trends of gastric cancer incidence were examined overall and by sociodemographic factors and states. We used Joinpoint regression to compute annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). SEER 13 registries data were extracted to examine the secular trends by cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers.Overall gastric cancer incidence decreased until 2007 (APC = -1.55, 95% CI: -1.88, -1.21), and remained stable thereafter (APC = -0.32, 95% CI: -0.84, 0.20). However, rates increased among persons <50 years of age (AAPC = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.61, 1.16), especially among non-Hispanic white females and Hispanic females. Incidence of non-cardia gastric cancer increased among persons <50 years of age (AAPC = 0.69, 95% CI: -0.06, 1.44), whereas rates of gastric cardia cancer remained unchanged. States with rapid increases in high-risk population groups (e.g. Hispanic females aged <50), including California and Texas, had highest annual increases in gastric cancer incidence.Divergent trends for gastric cancer incidence were observed in the USA. Incidence rates, particularly for non-cardia gastric cancer, were stable or increasing among persons aged <50 years.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been rising rapidly in the United States. California is an ethnically diverse state with the largest number of incident HCC cases in the country. Characterizing HCC disparities in California may inform priorities for HCC prevention. METHODS:By using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18-Registry Database and the California Cancer Registry, age-adjusted HCC incidence in California from 2009 through 2013 was calculated by race/ethnicity and neighborhood ethnic enclave status. A geographic analysis was conducted using Medical Service Study Areas (MSSAs) as the geographic unit, and race/ethnicity-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated to identify MSSAs with higher-than-expected HCC incidence compared with the statewide average. RESULTS:During 2009 through 2013, the age-adjusted incidence of HCC in California was the highest in Asians/Pacific Islanders (APIs) and Hispanics (>100% higher than whites), especially those living in more ethnic neighborhoods (20%-30% higher than less ethnic neighborhoods). Of the 542 MSSAs statewide, 42 had elevated HCC incidence (SIR???1.5; lower bound of 95% confidence interval?>?1) for whites, 14 for blacks, 24 for APIs, and 36 for Hispanics. These MSSAs have 24% to 52% higher proportions of individuals below the 100% federal poverty line than other MSSAs. CONCLUSIONS:APIs and Hispanics residing in more ethnic neighborhoods and individuals residing in lower income neighborhoods require more extensive preventive efforts tailored toward their unique risk factor profiles. The current race/ethnicity-specific geographic analysis can be extended to other states to inform priorities for HCC targeted prevention at the subcounty level, eventually reducing HCC burden in the country.
Project description:Population-level nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) death rate data are sparse. We described death rates for adults with NAFLD in the United States using mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System multiple-cause mortality data (2007-2016). Decedents who had NAFLD were identified by International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes K75.81, K76.0, K74.0, K74.6, and K76.9. Among NAFLD decedents, cause-specific deaths (e.g., cardiovascular disease [CVD], cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC], non-liver cancer, diabetes mellitus [DM]) were identified by underlying cause of death ICD-10 codes. Trends were evaluated by average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized death rate (ASDR) per 100,000 persons. Among the 25,129,960 decedents aged ≥20 years, 353,234 (1.4%) decedents had NAFLD (212,322 men; 260,765 non-Hispanic whites, 32,868 non-Hispanic blacks, 46,530 Hispanics, 5,025 non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Natives [AIANs], 7,023 non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islanders [APIs]), with a mean age at death of 64.47 ± 13.17 years. During the study period, the ASDR for NAFLD increased by 15% (12.94 to 14.90; AAPC, 1.98%; P < 0.001]), while women (AAPC, 2.99% vs. 1.16% men; P = 0.003), non-Hispanic whites (AAPC, 2.48%), non-Hispanic AIANs (AAPC, 2.31%), and Hispanics (AAPC, 0.74%) experienced the highest annual increases. Stable trends were noted for non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic APIs. Among subgroups, Mexican (AAPC, 1.75%) and Asian Indians (AAPC, 6.94%) experienced annual increases. The top six underlying causes of death (155,894 cirrhosis, 38,444 CVD, 19,466 non-liver cancer, 10,867 HCC, 8,113 DM, and 5,683 lung disease) accounted for 67.5% of NAFLD-related deaths. For cause-specific deaths, ASDR increased for HCC (AAPC, 3.82%), DM (AAPC, 2.23%), non-liver cancer (AAPC, 2.14%), CVD (AAPC, 1.59%), and cirrhosis (AAPC, 0.96%). Conclusion: NAFLD-related deaths in U.S. adults are increasing. Cirrhosis is the top cause-specific death, followed by CVD. Women, non-Hispanic whites, and non-Hispanic AIANs (subgroups Mexicans and Asian Indians) experienced the highest increases in deaths. Policies addressing the societal burden of NAFLD are needed.
Project description:BACKGROUND:There is very limited data on the time trend of diabetes incidence in Asia. Using population-level data, we report the secular trend of the incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Hong Kong between 2002 and 2015. METHODS AND FINDINGS:The Hong Kong Diabetes Surveillance Database hosts clinical information on people with diabetes receiving care under the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, a statutory body that governs all public hospitals and clinics. Sex-specific incidence rates were standardised to the age structure of the World Health Organization population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe incidence trends. A total of 562,022 cases of incident diabetes (type 1 diabetes [n = 2,426]: mean age at diagnosis is 32.5 years, 48.4% men; type 2 diabetes [n = 559,596]: mean age at diagnosis is 61.8 years, 51.9% men) were included. Among people aged <20 years, incidence of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes increased. For type 1 diabetes, the incidence increased from 3.5 (95% CI 2.2-4.9) to 5.3 (95% CI 3.4-7.1) per 100,000 person-years (average annual percentage change [AAPC] 3.6% [95% CI 0.2-7.1], p < 0.05) in boys and from 4.3 (95% CI 2.7-5.8) to 6.4 (95% CI 4.3-8.4) per 100,000 person-years (AAPC 4.7% [95% CI 1.7-7.7], p < 0.05] in girls; for type 2 diabetes, the incidence increased from 4.6 (95% CI 3.2-6.0) to 7.5 (95% CI 5.5-9.6) per 100,000 person-years (AAPC 5.9% [95% CI 3.4-8.5], p < 0.05) in boys and from 5.9 (95% CI 4.3-7.6) to 8.5 (95% CI 6.2-10.8) per 100,000 person-years (AAPC 4.8% [95% CI 2.7-7.0], p < 0.05) in girls. In people aged 20 to <40 years, incidence of type 1 diabetes remained stable, but incidence of type 2 diabetes increased over time from 75.4 (95% CI 70.1-80.7) to 110.8 (95% CI 104.1-117.5) per 100,000 person-years (AAPC 4.2% [95% CI 3.1-5.3], p < 0.05) in men and from 45.0 (95% CI 41.4-48.6) to 62.1 (95% CI 57.8-66.3) per 100,000 person-years (AAPC 3.3% [95% CI 2.3-4.2], p < 0.05) in women. In people aged 40 to <60 years, incidence of type 2 diabetes increased until 2011/2012 and then flattened. In people aged ?60 years, incidence was stable in men and declined in women after 2011. No trend was identified in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in people aged ?20 years. The present study is limited by its reliance on electronic medical records for identification of people with diabetes, which may result in incomplete capture of diabetes cases. The differentiation of type 1 and type 2 diabetes was based on an algorithm subject to potential misclassification. CONCLUSIONS:There was an increase in incidence of type 2 diabetes in people aged <40 years and stabilisation in people aged ?40 years. Incidence of type 1 diabetes continued to climb in people aged <20 years but remained constant in other age groups.