Prediction model for 30-day morbidity after gynecological malignancy surgery.
ABSTRACT: The potential risk of postoperative morbidity is important for gynecologic cancer patients because it leads to delays in adjunctive therapy and additional costs. We aimed to develop a preoperative nomogram to predict 30-day morbidity after gynecological cancer surgery.Between 2005 and 2015, 533 consecutive patients with elective gynecological cancer surgery in our center were reviewed. Of those patients, 373 and 160 patients were assigned to the model development or validation cohort, respectively. To investigate independent predictors of 30-day morbidity, a multivariate Cox regression model with backward stepwise elimination was utilized. A nomogram based on this Cox model was developed and externally validated. Its performance was assessed using the concordance index and a calibration curve.Ninety-seven (18.2%) patients had at least one postoperative complication within 30 days after surgery. After bootstrap resampling, the final model indicated age, operating time, and serum albumin level as statistically significant predictors of postoperative morbidity. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index of the nomogram incorporating these three predictors was 0.656 (95% CI, 0.608-0.723). In the validation cohort, the nomogram showed fair discrimination [concordance index: 0.674 (95% CI = 0.619-0.732] and good calibration (P = 0.614; Hosmer-Lemeshow test).The 30-day morbidity after gynecologic cancer surgery could be predicted according to age, operation time, and serum albumin level. After further validation using an independent dataset, the constructed nomogram could be valuable for predicting operative risk in individual patients.
Project description:<h4>Objective</h4>The purpose of this study is to estimate the risk of postoperative lymphocele development after lymphadenectomy in gynecologic cancer patients through establishing a nomogram.<h4>Methods</h4>We retrospectively reviewed 371 consecutive gynecologic cancer patients undergoing lymphadenectomy between 2009 and 2014. Association of the development of postoperative lymphocele with clinical characteristics was evaluated in univariate and multivariate regression analyses. Nomograms were built based on the data of multivariate analysis using R-software.<h4>Results</h4>Mean age at the operation was 50.8±11.1 years. Postoperative lymphocele was found in 70 (18.9%) patients. Of them, 22 (31.4%) had complicated one. Multivariate analysis revealed that hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5 to 6.0; <i>P</i>=0.003), open surgery (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 7.1; <i>P</i>=0.004), retrieved lymph nodes (LNs) >21 (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.3; <i>P</i>=0.042), and no use of intermittent pneumatic compression (HR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.0 to 7.2; <i>P</i>=0.047) were independent risk factors for the development of postoperative lymphocele. The nomogram appeared to be accurate and predicted the lymphocele development better than chance (concordance index, 0.754). For complicated lymphoceles, most variables which have shown significant association with general lymphocele lost the statistical significance, except hypertension (<i>P</i>=0.011) and mean number of retrieved LNs (29.5 vs. 21.1; <i>P</i>=0.001). A nomogram for complicated lymphocele showed similar predictive accuracy (concordance index, 0.727).<h4>Conclusion</h4>We developed a nomogram to predict the risk of lymphocele in gynecologic cancer patients on the basis of readily obtained clinical variables. External validation of this nomogram in different group of patients is needed.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Atrial fibrillation (AF), one of the most common comorbidities of heart failure (HF), is associated with worse long-term prognosis in HF patients receiving cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, there is still no convenient tool to identify CRT candidates with AF who are at high risk of mortality and hospitalization due to HF. METHODS:We included 152 consecutive patients with AF for CRT in our hospital from January 2009 to July 2019. Multiple imputation was used for missing values. With imputed datasets, a multivariate Cox regression model was performed for variable selection using the backward stepwise method to predict all-cause mortality and HF readmissions. A nomogram and nomogram-based scoring system were constructed from the selected predictors. Then, internal validation and calibration were achieved by the bootstrap method, deriving the corrected concordance index and calibration curves. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to validate our selected predictors. RESULTS:Five predictors were incorporated in the nomogram, including N-terminal pro brain natriuretic protein (NT-proBNP)?>?1745?pg/mL, history of syncope, previous pulmonary hypertension, moderate or severe tricuspid regurgitation, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH)?>?4 mIU/L. The concordance index (0.70, 95% CI 0.62-0.77), corrected concordance index (0.67, 95% CI 0.59-0.74) and calibration curve showed optimal discrimination and calibration of the established nomogram. A significant difference in overall event-free survival was recognized by the nomogram-derived scores for patients with high risk (>?50 points), intermediate risk (21-50 points) and low risk (0-20 points) before CRT. CONCLUSION:Our internally validated nomogram may be an applicable tool for the early risk stratification of CRT candidates with AF.
Project description:Postoperative complications after head and neck surgery carry the potential for significant morbidity. Estimating the risk of complications in an individual patient is challenging.To develop a statistical tool capable of predicting an individual patient's risk of developing a major complication after surgery for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma.Retrospective case series derived from an institutional clinical oncologic database, augmented by medical record abstraction, at an academic tertiary care cancer center. Participants were 506 previously untreated adult patients with biopsy-proven oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma who underwent surgery between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2012.The primary end point was a major postoperative complication requiring invasive intervention (Clavien-Dindo classification grades III-V). Patients treated between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2008 (354 of 506 [70.0%]) comprised the modeling cohort and were used to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of developing the primary end point. Univariable analysis and correlation analysis were used to prescreen 36 potential predictors for incorporation in the subsequent multivariable logistic regression analysis. The variables with the highest predictive value were identified with the step-down model reduction method and included in the nomogram. Patients treated between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2008 (152 of 506 [30.0%]) were used to validate the nomogram.Clinical characteristics were similar between the 2 cohorts for most comparisons. Thirty-six patients in the modeling cohort (10.2%) and 16 patients in the validation cohort (10.5%) developed a major postoperative complication. The 6 preoperative variables with the highest individual predictive value were incorporated within the nomogram, including body mass index, comorbidity status, preoperative white blood cell count, preoperative hematocrit, planned neck dissection, and planned tracheotomy. The nomogram predicted a major complication with a validated concordance index of 0.79. Inclusion of surgical operative variables in the nomogram maintained predictive accuracy (concordance index, 0.77).A statistical tool was developed that accurately estimates an individual patient's risk of developing a major complication after surgery for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma.
Project description:BACKGROUND: Pelvic lymph node (LN) status after preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is an important indicator of oncologic outcome in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram to predict LN status after preoperative CRT in locally advanced rectal cancer patients. METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=891) using logistic regression analyses and validated in a validation cohort (n=258) from a prospectively registered tumour registry at Asan Medical Center. The model was internally and externally validated for discrimination and calibration using bootstrap resampling. Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. RESULTS: Pretreatment ypT stage, patient age, preCRT tumour differentiation, cN stage, lymphovascular invasion, and perineural invasion were reliable predictors of LN metastasis after preoperative CRT. The nomogram developed using these parameters had c-indices of 0.81 (training) and 0.77 (validation). The calibration plot suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted LN status after preoperative CRT. CONCLUSIONS: This nomogram improves prediction of LN status after preoperative CRT in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. It will be useful for counselling patients as well as for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials.
Project description:<h4>Purpose</h4>Intraabdominal abscess is one of the most common reasons for re-hospitalization after gastrectomy. This study aimed to develop a model for estimating the probability of intraabdominal abscesses that can be used during the postoperative period.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>We retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathological data of 1,564 patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer between 2010 and 2012. Twenty-six related markers were analyzed, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the probability estimation model for intraabdominal abscess. Internal validation using a bootstrap approach was employed to correct for bias, and the model was then validated using an independent dataset comprising of patients who underwent gastrectomy between January 2008 and March 2010. Discrimination and calibration abilities were checked in both datasets.<h4>Results</h4>The incidence of intraabdominal abscess in the development set was 7.80% (122/1,564). The surgical approach, operating time, pathologic N classification, body temperature, white blood cell count, C-reactive protein level, glucose level, and change in the hemoglobin level were significant predictors of intraabdominal abscess in the multivariate analysis. The probability estimation model that was developed on the basis of these results showed good discrimination and calibration abilities (concordance index=0.828, Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-statistic P=0.274). Finally, we combined both datasets to produce a nomogram that estimates the probability of intraabdominal abscess.<h4>Conclusions</h4>This nomogram can be useful for identifying patients at a high risk of intraabdominal abscess. Patients at a high risk may benefit from further evaluation or treatment before discharge.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The biological behavior of early recurrence is more invasive and the prognosis is worse in gastric cancer (GC). The risk of early recurrence (ER) for GC in stage II/III has not been reported of which the majority of GC patients are in China. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the ER of gastric cancer in stage II/III. METHODS:The medical records of 1511 consecutive stage II/III GC patients who received resections were retrospectively reviewed. They were randomly classified into either a development or validation group at a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was constructed based on prognostic factors using logistic regression analysis and was validated by bootstrap resampling and validation dataset, respectively. Concordance index (C-index) values and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and discriminatory capability. RESULTS:Three hundred eleven patients experienced ER, accounting for 20.58% of the GC patients investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified tumors located at upper, middle third, or mixed, a positive lymph node ratio ? 0.335, pTNM stage III, lymphocyte count < 1.5 × 109/L, postoperative infection complications and adjuvant chemotherapy < 6?cycles were all independent predictors for ER after curative resection of stage II/III GC. The C-index value obtained for the model was 0.780 (95% CI, 0.747-0.813), and the calibration curves of validation group yielded a C-index value of 0.739 (95% CI, 0.684-0.794), suggesting the practicability of the model. CONCLUSIONS:The nomogram which was developed for predicting ER of stage II/III GC after surgery had good accuracy and was verified through both internal and external validation. The nomogram established can assist clinicians in determining the optimal therapy strategies in counseling, adjuvant treatments, and subsequent follow-up planning.
Project description:PURPOSE:Nomogram for predicting more than a 5-year survival for non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) was lacking. This study aimed to develop the new nomograms to predict long-term survival in these patients. RESULTS:The median follow-up time for training set and test set was 95.2 months and 133.3 months, respectively. The significant predictors for death were age, gender, body mass index (BMI), T stage, N stage, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and radiotherapy techniques. For predicting recurrence, age, gender, T stage, LDH, and radiotherapy techniques were significant predictors, whereas age, gender, BMI, T stage, N stage and LDH were significant predictors for distant metastasis. The calibration curves showed the good agreements between nomogram-predicted and actual survival. The c-indices for predicting death, recurrence, and distant metastases between nomograms and the TNM staging system were 0.767 VS.0.686 (P<0.001), 0.655 VS.0.585 (P<0.001), and 0.881 VS.0.754 (P<0.001), respectively. These results were further confirmed in the test set. METHODS:On the basis of a retrospective study of 1593 patients (training set) who received radiotherapy alone or concurrent chemoradiotherapy from 2000 to 2004, significant predictors were identified and incorporated to build the nomograms. The calibration curves of nomogram-predicted survival versus the actual survival were plotted and reviewed. Bootstrap validation was performed to calculate the concordance index (c-index). These models were further validated in an independent prospective trial (test set, n=400). CONCLUSION:The established nomograms suggest more-accurate long-term prediction for patients with non-metastatic NPC.
Project description:Surgeons constantly try to achieve optimal surgical outcome, number, or extent of postoperative complications being an important part of it. Oncological surgeries are conventionally more challenging and complex compared with most nononcological ones. Gawande et al. devised SAS in 2007 in Boston as a predictor tool for postoperative complications (J Am Coll Surg 204:201-208, 2007). A validation study was done by in another cohort of 100 patients; however, only 70% of them had pathologically confirmed malignancies (Ann Surg 240(2):205-213, 2004). We attempt to assess SAS as a tool to predict postoperative complications in a series of 100 gynecological oncological patients operated at tertiary care center. SAS score of 100 patients with gynecologic malignancies, undergoing surgery at a tertiary care center, was prospectively collected over 4 years. These patients were observed for development of any complications occurring up to 30 days postsurgery. The complication events were graded as per Clavien-Dindo classification (Indian J Gynecol Oncolog 15:49, 2017). The data obtained was statistically analyzed by chi-square test. Thirty complication events were recorded in these 100 patients over a period of 4 years. Majority of complication events were grade IIIa or less (22 out of 30); there was only one death on 8th postoperative day. Fifty percent of patients were with SAS score of 5 or less developed complications compared with just 22.9% in patients with a score of 6 or more. Lower SAS score might be associated with higher postoperative complications in patients undergoing gynecologic oncological surgeries. Thus, patients with lower scores may benefit from a triage to more intensive postoperative care.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Laparoscopic surgery has become a standard of care for many gynecological surgeries due to its lower morbidity, pain and cost compared to open techniques. Unfortunately, the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) to insufflate the abdomen is the main contributor to post-operative shoulder pain. METHODS:We aim to assess the effect of postoperative Trendelenburg position on shoulder pain after gynecological laparoscopic procedures. We hypothesize that maintaining the patient in Trendelenburg for 24?h postoperatively will significantly decrease postoperative shoulder pain and analgesic consumption. After obtaining written informed consent, 108 patients were prospectively randomized into two groups. In the control group, patients underwent standard gynecologic laparoscopic procedures; then after passive deflation of the pneumoperitoneum at the end of the surgery, the patients were placed in supine head up position in the post anesthesia care unit (PACU) and received our institution's common postoperative care. Patients in the intervention group were subjected to the same maneuver but were positioned in a Trendelenburg position (20 °) once fully awake and cooperative in the PACU and retained this position for the first 24?h. Numerical rating scale (NRS) was used to assess shoulder pain and nausea upon patient arrival to the PACU, at 4, 6, 12 (primary outcome) and 24?h postoperatively. Time to first rescue pain medication, total rescue pain medications and overall satisfaction with pain control were recorded. 101 patients were included in the final data analysis. RESULTS:Both groups were comparable in terms of baseline characteristics. NRS pain scores were significantly lower in the intervention group at 12?h compared to the control group (0 [0-1] versus 5 [1-4], p?<?0.001), furthermore improvement in postoperative shoulder pain between time of arrival to PACU (time zero) and 12?h postoperatively was significantly higher in patients allocated to the experimental group compared to the control group. Pain scores were significantly lower in patients allocated to the experimental group versus the control group (0 [0-1] versus 5 [1-4], p?<?0.001). CONCLUSION:In conclusion, Trendelenburg position is an easy non-pharmacologic intervention that is beneficial in reducing postoperative shoulder pain following gynecologic laparoscopic surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Retrospectively registered at Clinicaltrials.gov, registration number NCT04129385, date of registration: June 28, 2019.
Project description:<b>Background</b>: Peritoneal metastasis (PM) is the most common cause of death in gastric cancer (GC) patients. However, diagnosis of PM is still difficult in clinical practice. This study aimed to explore the diagnostic and prognostic value of digital rectal examination (DRE) in GC. <b>Methods</b>: 247 GC patients with PM confirmed by operation were included. The diagnostic yield of DRE compared with computed tomography (CT) was calculated. In another group of 1330 cases receiving radical gastrectomy, 38 cases with DRE (+) postoperatively were analyzed to identify risk factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict postoperative DRE (+). <b>Results</b>: The specificity, positive predictive value and positive likelihood ratio of DRE in diagnosis of PM was 99.8%, 91.2% and 58.4, higher than CT (97.6%, 64.9% and 10.4). Though the sensitivity of DRE (12.6%) was lower than CT (24.7%), 17 of 31 patients with DRE (+) could not be found by CT. Moreover, the overall survival of confirmed PM patients with DRE (+) (PM-DRE (+)) was much lower than PM-DRE (-) patients (P<0.001). In addition, the nomogram to predict postoperative DRE (+) had a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.73 and was well calibrated. <b>Conclusions</b>: GC patients with DRE (+) could be regarded as a special subtype of stage IV ones with poorer prognosis. Supply of palliative care and chemotherapy rather than unnecessary operation might be a better alternative for these patients. DRE was an effective supplement for CT and should be generally recommended for GC patients.