ObjectiveThis study aims to determine the distribution of observed atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) incidence in contemporary cohorts in China, and to identify cut-off points for ASCVD risk classification based on traditional criteria and new equations developed by Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR).
MethodsThe study populations included cohorts in the China-PAR project, with 34,757 participants eligible for the current analysis. Traditional risk stratification was assessed by using Chinese guidelines on prevention of CVD and hypertension, and 5 risk groups were classified based on these guidelines after slight modification for available risk factors. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to obtain the cumulative incidence of observed ASCVD events for all subjects and sub-groups. The predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was obtained using the China-PAR equations.
ResultsA total of 1922 ASCVD events were identified during an average follow-up of 14.1 years. According to the group classification based on traditional risk stratification, the observed 10-year risks for ASCVD were 4.61% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.11-5.10%) in the moderate-risk group and 8.74% (95% CI: 7.82-9.66%) in the high-risk group. Based on the China-PAR equations for risk assessment of ASCVD, those with predicted risks of <5%, 5-10%, and ?10% could be classified into categories of low-, moderate-, and high-risk for ASCVD, respectively.
ConclusionThe findings enable development of a simple method for classification of individuals into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, based on the China-PAR equations. The method will be useful for self-management and prevention of ASCVD in Chinese adults.