Progress towards the United Nations 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets: the experience in British Columbia, Canada.
ABSTRACT: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up is central to the global strategy to control the HIV/AIDS pandemic. To accelerate efforts towards ending the AIDS epidemic, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS released the 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets, which have recently been approved by the United Nations (UN). This study characterizes the province of British Columbia (BC)'s progress towards achieving the UN targets, predicts a trajectory up to 2030 according to each of the individual steps (i.e. %Diagnosed, %On ART and %Virologically Suppressed), and identifies the population sub-groups at higher risk of not achieving these targets.The analyses were based on linked individual-level datasets of people living with HIV (PLWH) in BC, aged ?18 months, from 2000 to 2013. Using past trends in HIV prevalence and of each individual UN targets, we forecasted these outcomes until 2030 via generalized additive models. We ran a second set of analyses to assess the associations between individual demographic and behavioural factors and each of the individual steps of the UN targets. Lastly, we performed sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty associated with prevalence estimates and suppression definitions.Among the estimated 10666 PLWH in BC in 2013, 82% were diagnosed, 76% of those diagnosed were on ART and 83% of those on ART were virologically suppressed. We identified that females, PLWH aged <30 years and those with unknown risk or who self-identify as having a history of injection drug use were the population subgroups that experienced the most challenge in engaging on ART and achieving viral suppression. Our model projections suggest that BC will achieve 90%-91%-90% and 97%-99%-97% by 2020 and 2030 respectively.As we approach 2020, BC is rapidly moving towards achieving the UN targets. However, region-specific challenges persist. Identification of remaining regional challenges will be essential to achieving the proposed UN targets and therefore fulfilling the promise to end AIDS as a pandemic by 2030.
Project description:UNAIDS established fast-track targets of 73% and 86% viral suppression among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals by 2020 and 2030, respectively. The epidemiologic impact of achieving these goals is unknown. The HIV-Calibrated Dynamic Model, a calibrated agent-based model of HIV transmission, is used to examine scenarios of incremental improvements to the testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) continuum in South Africa in 2015. The speed of intervention availability is explored, comparing policies for their predicted effects on incidence, prevalence and achievement of fast-track targets in 2020 and 2030. Moderate (30%) improvements in the continuum will not achieve 2020 or 2030 targets and have modest impacts on incidence and prevalence. Improving the continuum by 80% and increasing availability reduces incidence from 2.54 to 0.80 per 100 person-years (-1.73, interquartile range (IQR): -1.42, -2.13) and prevalence from 26.0 to 24.6% (-1.4 percentage points, IQR: -0.88, -1.92) from 2015 to 2030 and achieves fast track targets in 2020 and 2030. Achieving 90-90-90 in South Africa is possible with large improvements to the testing and treatment continuum. The epidemiologic impact of these improvements depends on the balance between survival and transmission benefits of ART with the potential for incidence to remain high.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals over the last decade has sparked considerable debate as to whether universal test and treat can end the HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to develop a network transmission model, calibrated to capture age-specific and sex-specific gaps in the scale-up of ART, to estimate the historical and future effect of attaining and surpassing the UNAIDS 90-90-90 treatment targets on HIV-1 incidence and mortality, and to assess whether these interventions will be enough to achieve epidemic control (incidence of 1 infection per 1000 person-years) by 2030. METHODS:We used eSwatini (formerly Swaziland) as a case study to develop our model. We used data on HIV prevalence by 5-year age bins, sex, and year from the 2007 Swaziland Demographic Health Survey (SDHS), the 2011 Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey, and the 2016 Swaziland Population Health Impact Assessment (PHIA) survey. We estimated the point prevalence of ART coverage among all HIV-infected individuals by age, sex, and year. Age-specific data on the prevalence of male circumcision from the SDHS and PHIA surveys were used as model inputs for traditional male circumcision and scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). We calibrated our model using publicly available data on demographics; HIV prevalence by 5-year age bins, sex, and year; and ART coverage by age, sex, and year. We modelled the effects of five scenarios (historical scale-up of ART and VMMC [status quo], no ART or VMMC, no ART, age-targeted 90-90-90, and 100% ART initiation) to quantify the contribution of ART scale-up to declines in HIV incidence and mortality in individuals aged 15-49 by 2016, 2030, and 2050. FINDINGS:Between 2010 and 2016, status-quo ART scale-up among adults (aged 15-49 years) in eSwatini (from 34·0% in 2010 to 74·1% in 2016) reduced HIV incidence by 43·57% (95% credible interval 39·71 to 46·36) and HIV mortality by 56·17% (54·06 to 58·92) among individuals aged 15-49 years, with larger reductions in incidence among men and mortality among women. Holding 2016 ART coverage levels by age and sex into the future, by 2030 adult HIV incidence would fall to 1·09 (0·87 to 1·29) per 100 person-years, 1·42 (1·13 to 1·71) per 100 person-years among women and 0·79 (0·63 to 0·94) per 100 person-years among men. Achieving the 90-90-90 targets evenly by age and sex would further reduce incidence beyond status-quo ART, primarily among individuals aged 15-24 years (an additional 17·37% [7·33 to 26·12] reduction between 2016 and 2030), with only modest additional incidence reductions in adults aged 35-49 years (1·99% [-5·09 to 7·74]). Achieving 100% ART initiation among all people living with HIV within an average of 6 months from infection-an upper bound of plausible treatment effect-would reduce adult HIV incidence to 0·73 infections (0·55 to 0·92) per 100 person-years by 2030 and 0·46 (0·33 to 0·59) per 100 person-years by 2050. INTERPRETATION:Scale-up of ART over the last decade has already contributed to substantial reductions in HIV-1 incidence and mortality in eSwatini. Focused ART targeting would further reduce incidence, especially in younger individuals, but even the most aggressive treatment campaigns would be insufficient to end the epidemic in high-burden settings without a renewed focus on expanding preventive measures. FUNDING:Global Good Fund and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Project description:National responses will need to be markedly accelerated to achieve the ambitious target of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). This target aims for 90% of HIV-positive individuals to be aware of their status, for 90% of those aware to receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), and for 90% of those on treatment to have a suppressed viral load by 2020, with each individual target reaching 95% by 2030. We aimed to estimate the impact of various treatment-as-prevention scenarios in Côte d'Ivoire, one of the countries with the highest HIV incidence in West Africa, with unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs, and where key populations are important to the broader HIV epidemic.An age-stratified dynamic model was developed and calibrated to epidemiological and programmatic data using a Bayesian framework. The model represents sexual and vertical HIV transmission in the general population, female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM). We estimated the impact of scaling up interventions to reach the UNAIDS targets, as well as the impact of 8 other scenarios, on HIV transmission in adults and children, compared to our baseline scenario that maintains 2015 rates of testing, ART initiation, ART discontinuation, treatment failure, and levels of condom use. In 2015, we estimated that 52% (95% credible intervals: 46%-58%) of HIV-positive individuals were aware of their status, 72% (57%-82%) of those aware were on ART, and 77% (74%-79%) of those on ART were virologically suppressed. Reaching the UNAIDS targets on time would avert 50% (42%-60%) of new HIV infections over 2015-2030 compared to 30% (25%-36%) if the 90-90-90 target is reached in 2025. Attaining the UNAIDS targets in FSW, their clients, and MSM (but not in the rest of the population) would avert a similar fraction of new infections (30%; 21%-39%). A 25-percentage-point drop in condom use from the 2015 levels among FSW and MSM would reduce the impact of reaching the UNAIDS targets, with 38% (26%-51%) of infections averted. The study's main limitation is that homogenous spatial coverage of interventions was assumed, and future lines of inquiry should examine how geographical prioritization could affect HIV transmission.Maximizing the impact of the UNAIDS targets will require rapid scale-up of interventions, particularly testing, ART initiation, and limiting ART discontinuation. Reaching clients of FSW, as well as key populations, can efficiently reduce transmission. Sustaining the high condom-use levels among key populations should remain an important prevention pillar.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>The report of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) for World AIDS Day 2014 highlighted a Fast-Track Strategy that sets ambitious treatment and prevention targets to reduce global HIV incidence to manageable levels by 2020 and end the AIDS epidemic by 2030. The 90-90-90 treatment targets for 2020 call for 90% of people living with HIV to know their HIV status, 90% of people who know their status to receive treatment, and 90% of people on HIV treatment to be virally suppressed. This paper examines how scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services in four priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa could contribute to ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 in the context of concerted efforts to close the treatment gap, and what the impact of VMMC scale-up would be if the 90-90-90 treatment targets were not completely met.<h4>Methods</h4>Using the Goals module of the Spectrum suite of models, this analysis modified ART (antiretroviral treatment) scale-up coverage from base scenarios to reflect the 90-90-90 treatment targets in four countries (Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, and Uganda). In addition, a second scenario was created to reflect viral suppression levels of 75% instead of 90%, and a third scenario was created in which the 90-90-90 treatment targets are reached in women, with men reaching more moderate coverage levels. Regarding male circumcision (MC) coverage, the analysis examined both a scenario in which VMMCs were assumed to stop after 2015, and one in which MC coverage was scaled up to 90% by 2020 and maintained at 90% thereafter.<h4>Results</h4>Across all four countries, scaling up VMMC is projected to provide further HIV incidence reductions in addition to those achieved by reaching the 90-90-90 treatment targets. If viral suppression levels only reach 75%, scaling up VMMC leads to HIV incidence reduction to nearly the same levels as those achieved with 90-90-90 without VMMC scale-up. If only women reach the 90-90-90 targets, scaling up VMMC brings HIV incidence down to near the levels projected with 90-90-90 without VMMC scale-up. Regarding cost, scaling up VMMC increases the annual costs during the scale-up phase, but leads to lower annual costs after the MC coverage target is achieved.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The scenarios modeled in this paper show that the highly durable and effective male circumcision intervention increases epidemic impact levels over those of treatment-only strategies, including the case if universal levels of viral suppression in men and women are not achieved by 2020. In the context of 90-90-90, prioritizing continued successful scale-up of VMMC increases the possibility that future generations will be free not only of AIDS but also of HIV.
Project description:Background:Persons living with HIV (PLWH) have an elevated risk for certain types of cancer. With modern antiretroviral therapy, PLWH are aging and cancer rates are changing. Objective:To project cancer incidence rates and burden (number of new cancer diagnoses) among adult PLWH in the United States through 2030. Design:Descriptive. Setting:HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to project cancer rates and HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics model to project HIV prevalence. Participants:HIV-infected adults. Measurements:Projected cancer rates and burden among HIV-infected adults in the United States by age during 2006 to 2030 for AIDS-defining cancer (ADC)-that is, Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer-and certain types of non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC). All other cancer types were combined. Results:The proportion of adult PLWH in the United States aged 65 years or older is projected to increase from 8.5% in 2010 to 21.4% in 2030. Age-specific rates are projected to decrease through 2030 across age groups for Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, cervical cancer, lung cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and other cancer types combined, and among those aged 65 years or older for colon cancer. Prostate cancer rates are projected to increase. The estimated total cancer burden in PLWH will decrease from 8150 cases in 2010 (2730 of ADC and 5420 of NADC) to 6690 cases in 2030 (720 of ADC and 5980 of NADC). In 2030, prostate cancer (n = 1590) and lung cancer (n = 1030) are projected to be the most common cancer types. Limitation:Projections assume that current trends in cancer incidence rates, HIV transmission, and survival will continue. Conclusion:The cancer burden among PLWH is projected to shift, with prostate and lung cancer expected to emerge as the most common types by 2030. Cancer will remain an important comorbid condition, and expanded access to HIV therapies and cancer prevention, screening, and treatment is needed. Primary Funding Source:National Cancer Institute.
Project description:The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed an ambitious strategy to end the AIDS epidemic. After eight years of antiretroviral therapy (ART) program we assessed progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Mbongolwane and Eshowe, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.We conducted a cross-sectional household-based community survey using a two-stage stratified cluster probability sampling strategy. Persons aged 15-59 years were eligible. We used face-to-face interviewer-administered questionnaires to collect information on history of HIV testing and care. Rapid HIV testing was performed on site and venous blood specimens collected from HIV-positive participants for antiretroviral drug presence test, CD4 count and viral load. At the time of the survey the CD4 threshold for ART initiation was 350 cells/?L. We calculated progression towards the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets by estimating three proportions: HIV positive individuals who knew their status (first 90), those diagnosed who were on ART (second 90), and those on ART who were virally suppressed (third 90).We included 5649/6688 (84.5%) individuals. Median age was 26 years (IQR: 19-40), 62.3% were women. HIV prevalence was 25.2% (95% CI: 23.6-26.9): 30.9% (95% CI: 29.0-32.9) in women; 15.9% (95% CI: 14.0-18.0) in men. Overall progress towards the 90-90-90 targets was as follows: 76.4% (95% CI: 74.1-78.6) knew their status, 69.9% (95% CI: 67.0-72.7) of those who knew their status were on ART and 93.1% (95% CI: 91.0-94.8) of those on ART were virally suppressed. By sex, progress towards the 90-90-90 targets was: 79%-71%-93% among women; and 68%-68%-92% among men (p-values of women and men comparisons were <?0.001, 0.443 and 0.584 respectively). By age, progress was: 83%-75%-95% among individuals aged 30-59 years and 64%-58%-89% among those aged 15-29 years (p-values of age groups comparisons were <?0.001, <?0.001 and 0.011 respectively).In this context of high HIV prevalence, significant progress has been achieved with regards to reaching the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. The third 90, viral suppression in people on ART, was achieved among women and men. However, gaps persist in HIV diagnosis and ART coverage particularly in men and individuals younger than 30 years. Achieving 90-90-90 is feasible but requires additional investment to reach youth and men.
Project description:The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set the global goal of ending the AIDS world epidemic by 2030. In order to end this epidemic they have established a 90-90-90 goal to be achieved by 2020, which may be problematic, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This goal includes 90% of individuals with HIV globally being diagnosed, on treatment, and virologically suppressed. Based on global estimates from 2014-2015, approximately 36.9 million individuals are living with HIV. Of those, 53% have been diagnosed with HIV, 41% are on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 32% have viral suppression with <1000 copies/ml. Comprehensive approaches are needed to improve the number of people living with HIV (PLWH) who are diagnosed, linked, and engaged in care. Once PLWH are retained in care, treatment is key to both HIV prevention and transmission. The development and advancement of new ART is necessary to assist in reaching these goals by improving safety profiles, decreasing pill burden, improving quality of life and life expectancy, and creating new mechanisms to overcome resistance. The focus of this review is to highlight and review data for antiretroviral agents recently added to the market as well as discuss agents in various stages of development (new formulations and mechanisms of action).
Project description:INTRODUCTION:To achieve epidemic control of HIV by 2030, countries aim to meet 90-90-90 targets to increase knowledge of HIV-positive status, initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression by 2020. We assessed the progress towards these targets from 2014 to 2016 in South Africa as expanded treatment policies were introduced using population-representative surveys. METHODS:Data were collected in January to March 2014 and August to November 2016 in Dr. Ruth Segomotsi Mompati District, North West Province. Each multi-stage cluster sample included 46 enumeration areas (EA), a target of 36 dwelling units (DU) per EA, and a single resident aged 18 to 49 per DU. Data collection included behavioural surveys, rapid HIV antibody testing and dried blood spot collection. We used weighted general linear regression to evaluate differences in the HIV care continuum over time. RESULTS:Overall, 1044 and 971 participants enrolled in 2014 and 2016 respectively with approximately 77% undergoing HIV testing. Despite increases in reported testing, known status among people living with HIV (PLHIV) remained similar at 68.7% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 60.9-75.6) in 2014 and 72.8% (95% CI = 63.6-80.4) in 2016. Men were consistently less likely than women to know their status. Among those with known status, PLHIV on ART increased significantly from 80.9% (95% CI = 71.9-87.4) to 91.5% (95% CI = 84.4-95.5). Viral suppression (<5000 copies/mL using DBS) among those on ART increased significantly from 55.0% (95% CI = 39.6-70.4) in 2014 to 81.4% (95% CI = 72.0-90.8) in 2016. Among all PLHIV an estimated 72.0% (95% CI = 63.8-80.1) of women and 45.8% (95% CI = 27.0-64.7) of men achieved viral suppression by 2016. CONCLUSIONS:Over a period during which fixed-dose combination was introduced, ART eligibility expanded, and efforts to streamline treatment were implemented, major improvements in the second and third 90-90-90 targets were achieved. Achieving the first 90 target will require targeted and improved testing models for men.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Over 90% of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected individuals will be on treatment by 2020 under UNAIDS 90-90-90 global targets. Under World Health Organisation (WHO) "Treat All" approach, this number will be approximately 36.4 million people with over 98% in low-income countries (LICs).<h4>Main body</h4>Pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) largely driven by frequently use of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), efavirenz and nevirapine, has been increasing with roll-out of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) with 29% annual increase in some LICs countries. PDR has exceeded 10% in most LICs which warrants change of first line regimen to more robust classes under WHO recommendations. If no change in regimens is enforced in LICs, it's estimated that over 16% of total deaths, 9% of new infections, and 8% of total cART costs will be contributed by HIV drug resistance by 2030. Less than optimal adherence, and adverse side effects associated with currently available drug regimens, all pose a great threat to achievement of 90% viral suppression and elimination of AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This calls for urgent introduction of policies that advocate for voluntary and compulsory drug licensing of new more potent drugs which should also emphasize universal access of these drugs to all individuals worldwide.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The achievement of United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS 2020 and 2030 targets in LICs depends on access to active cART with higher genetic barrier to drug resistance, better safety, and tolerability profiles. It's also imperative to strengthen quality service delivery in terms of retention of patients to treatment, support for adherence to cART, patient follow up and adequate drug stocks to help achieve a free AIDS generation.
Project description:<h4>Introduction</h4>In 2014, city leaders from around the world endorsed the Paris Declaration on Fast-Track Cities, pledging to achieve the 2020 and 2030 HIV targets championed by UNAIDS. The City of Johannesburg - one of South Africa's metropolitan municipalities and also a health district - has over 600,000 people living with HIV (PLHIV), more than any other city worldwide. We estimate what it would take in terms of programmatic targets and costs for the City of Johannesburg to meet the Fast-Track targets, and demonstrate the impact that this would have.<h4>Methods</h4>We applied the Optima HIV epidemic and resource allocation model to demographic, epidemiological and behavioural data on 26 sub-populations in Johannesburg. We used data on programme costs and coverage to produce baseline projections. We calculated how many people must be diagnosed, put onto treatment and maintained with viral suppression to achieve the 2020 and 2030 targets. We also estimated how treatment needs - and therefore fiscal commitments - could be reduced if the treatment targets are combined with primary HIV prevention interventions (voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), an expanded condom programme, and comprehensive packages for female sex workers (FSW) and young females).<h4>Results</h4>If current programmatic coverage were maintained, Johannesburg could expect 303,000 new infections and 96,000 AIDS-related deaths between 2017 and 2030 and 769,000 PLHIV by 2030. Achieving the Fast-Track targets would require an additional 135,000 diagnoses and 232,000 people on treatment by 2020 (an increase in around 80% over 2016 treatment numbers), but would avert 176,000 infections and 56,500 deaths by 2030. Assuming stable ART unit costs, this would require ZAR 29 billion (USD 2.15 billion) in cumulative treatment investments over the 14 years to 2030. Plausible scale-ups of other proven interventions (VMMC, condom distribution and FSW strategies) could yield additional reductions in new infections (between 4 and 15%), and in overall treatment investment needs. Scaling up VMMC in line with national targets is found to be cost-effective in the medium term.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The scale-up in testing and treatment programmes over this decade has been rapid, but these efforts must be doubled to reach 2020 targets. Strategic investments in proven interventions will help Johannesburg achieve the treatment targets and be on track to end AIDS by 2030.