Assessing Baseline and Temporal Changes in Cardiometabolic Risk Using Metabolic Syndrome Severity and Common Risk Scores.
ABSTRACT: Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2 DM ) is considered a cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) risk equivalent, thereby linking assessment of cardiometabolic risk with that of CVD risk over time. Our goal was to determine how commonly used CVD risk scores and metabolic syndrome (MetS) severity performed in predicting T2 DM with and without ultimate CVD . Methods and Results We assessed data from 8273 participants of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study, using the pooled cohort atherosclerotic CVD risk score, the Framingham Risk Score, and a MetS severity Z score to assess their association with future risk for CVD alone, T2 DM alone, or both over 20 years of follow-up. Baseline levels of all scores were significantly associated with isolated incident T2 DM (odds ratios [ OR s] for each 1- SD increase: atherosclerotic CVD =1.7, Framingham risk score=1.7, MetS Z score=5.1). All 3 baseline scores were also significantly associated with isolated incident CVD (atherosclerotic CVD OR =2.4, Framingham risk score OR =2.3, MetS Z-score OR =1.8), with the 2 CVD scores remaining significant independent of MetS severity. MetS severity was strongly associated with future T2 DM leading to CVD (MetS Z-score OR =7.0, atherosclerotic CVD OR =3.9, Framingham risk score OR =3.5). Furthermore, changes in MetS severity were independently associated with future T2 DM - CVD progression. Conclusions CVD risk scores are associated with risk for future isolated T2 DM in addition to isolated CVD . However, MetS severity (both baseline and changes over time) was more strongly associated with T2 DM , including T2 DM ultimately leading to CVD . Following MetS severity within patients over time may identify those at greatest risk of combined cardiometabolic disease.
Project description:The severity of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) predicts future coronary heart disease (CHD) and diabetes independent of the individual MetS components. Our aim was to evaluate whether MetS severity conferred additional discrimination to existing scoring systems for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes risk.We assessed Cox proportional hazard models of CHD- and diabetes risk among 13,141 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and the Jackson Heart Study, using the Framingham Risk Calculator, the American Heart Association's Atherosclerotic CVD calculator, the American Diabetes Association diabetes risk score and an additional diabetes risk score derived from ARIC data. We then added a MetS-severity Z-score to these models and assessed for added risk discrimination by assessing Akaike information criterion, c-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI).The MetS severity score appears to add to the predictive ability of individual CHD and diabetes risk scores. Using the IDI, MetS improved risk prediction for diabetes but not CHD risk. In all 4 scoring systems, MetS severity had a significant non-event NRI, improving the ability to exclude individuals without events. Assessing interactions between risk scores and MetS severity revealed that MetS severity was more highly associated with disease risk among those in the lowest quintiles of risk score, suggesting that MetS was particularly able to identify risk among individuals judged to be of low risk by existing algorithms.Mets severity improved prediction of diabetes more so than CHD. Incorporation of multiple risk predictors into electronic health records may help in better identifying those at high disease risk, who can then be placed earlier on preventative therapy.
Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIMS:The extent and relation of multisite atherosclerosis to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in metabolic syndrome (MetS) and diabetes (DM) are not well documented. We examined the extent of multisite atherosclerosis and its prognostic value for CVD events in MetS and DM. METHODS:In CVD-free subjects from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, multisite atherosclerosis was measured as: (1) the number of arterial beds involved (coronary calcium>0, abdominal aortic calcium>0, carotid intima-media thickness ?1?mm and ankle brachial index<1 or ?1.4); (2) a composite score summing the quartile rank for each atherosclerosis measure. Hazard ratios (HRs) and c-statistics were calculated for incident CVD and coronary heart disease (CHD) over 10.6 years. RESULTS:Of 1675 individuals (mean age 64 years, 51% male), 33.4% had MetS and 15.9% had DM. The number of atherosclerotic sites was higher in those with DM (mean?±?SD?=?1.67?±?1.15) and MetS (1.49?±?1.12) versus neither MetS/DM (1.09?±?1.09) (p?<?0.0001). CVD rates per 1000 person-years ranged from 3.5, 8.2, and 10.0 in those with 0 sites positive to 35.1, 79.6 and 103.4 in those with 4 sites positive among neither DM/MetS, MetS and DM groups, respectively. HRs (95% CI) for CVD comparing those with 4 vs. 0 atherosclerotic sites were 4.0 (0.8-19.1), 4.9 (2.0-12.0), and 14.4 (3.6-57.6), respectively. C-statistics adding multisite atherosclerosis measures increased over models without the measures and with CIMT or ABI but not CAC. CONCLUSIONS:Multisite atherosclerosis is greater with MetS or DM, and predicts CVD and CHD events. Risk prediction is improved over CIMT and ABI but not CAC.
Project description:Metabolic disorders are prevalent worldwide and have recently become public health problems recently. Previous studies have proposed different body composition indices for predicting future cardiovascular risks. We hypothesized an association among fat-to-muscle ratio (FMR), metabolic syndrome (MetS), hypertension (HTN), prediabetes, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), and cardiovascular risk in an adult population. A total of 66829 eligible subjects composed of 34182 males and 32647 females aged 20 years or older were obtained from health examinations in the Tri-Service General Hospital from 2011 to 2017. The body composition indices included fat and muscle mass measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis. A multivariable regression model was performed in a large population-based cross-sectional study. FMR was significantly associated with MetS, prediabetes, DM and HTN in all models of both genders. Based on quartile analysis, higher FMR had higher predictive ability for adverse health outcomes. The association between different definitions of MetS and the Framingham risk score was analyzed, and FMR-incorporated MetS was more useful for predicting higher Framingham risk scores than traditional definitions. FMR was a useful indicator for the presence of adverse cardiometabolic risks. Compared to traditional definition of MetS, FMR-incorporated MetS had a greater ability to predict incident cardiovascular risks. FMR seemed to be a simple and effective index for the early prevention and management of cardiometabolic events.
Project description:Triglycerides are considered an emerging risk factor for cardiovascular mortality. Recent evidence relating depression and metabolic syndrome (MetS) implicated triglyceride levels. We thus investigated interrelations of self-reported depression severity (Zung) and MetS-related biological measures with CVD risk estimates in MetS patients.N = 101 patients fulfilling International Diabetes Federation criteria for MetS from a nationwide sampled treatment cohort for MetS with familial T2DM risk or manifest T2DM in a Ukrainian governmental health care system were participants. Both laboratory and non-laboratory measures were included. Recent European cardiological SCORE system CVD risk estimates were used as outcome variables.Following correlation matrix, we entered all variables into principal component analysis (PCA; 76.7% explained variance), followed by hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling (SEM). The PCA suggested a one-factor solution, where the latent variable showed highest loadings of SCORE risk estimates, triglycerides, depression severity, and pulse pressure. A comprehensive SEM was adjusted with 92.7% explained variance: overall CVD risk related to depression, pulse pressure, triglycerides, and fasting glucose.The findings in this MetS sample suggest that triglycerides and depression severity are the key variables among MetS biomarkers in cross-sectionally associating with the fatal and total SCORE risk estimates in MetS.
Project description:Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS) status changes over time, but few studies have investigated the relationship between the extent or duration of exposure to MetS and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated the cumulative effects of MetS and its components on the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. Methods From the Korean National Health Insurance database, 2,644,851 people who received annual health examinations from 2010 to 2013 were recruited. Exposure-weighted scores for MetS during this 4-year period were calculated in two ways: cumulative number of MetS diagnoses (MetS exposure score, range: 0–4) and the composite of its five components (MetS component exposure score, range: 0–20). The multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model was used to assess CVD risk according to the exposure-weighted scores for MetS. Results MetS was identified at least once in 37.6% and persistent MetS in 8.2% of subjects. During the follow-up (median, 4.4 years), 10,522 cases of MI (0.4%) and 10,524 cases of stoke (0.4%) occurred. The risk of MI and stroke increased gradually with increasing exposure scores of MetS and its components (each P for trend?<?0.0001). The hazard ratio [(HR) (95% CI)] of MI and stroke were 5.27 (4.20–6.62) and 3.90 (3.09–4.93), respectively, in those with a score of 20 compared with those with a MetS component exposure score of 0. People fulfilling only two MetS components out of 20 already had 22% increased risk of MI, and those with three MetS components had 24% increased risk of stroke. These associations were consistent in the subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions A dose–response relationship between the cumulative exposure to metabolic disturbances and incident MI or stroke was evident. Even minimal exposure to MetS components was sufficient to increase the risk of CVD significantly, highlighting the importance of intensive risk management for the prevention of CVD.
Project description:To examine the capacity of existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms widely used in primary care, to predict frailty.Prospective cohort study. Risk algorithms at baseline (1997-1999) were the Framingham CVD, coronary heart disease and stroke risk scores, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation.Civil Service departments in London, UK.3895 participants (73% men) aged 45-69 years and free of CVD at baseline.Status of frailty at the end of follow-up (2007-2009), based on the following indicators: self-reported exhaustion, low physical activity, slow walking speed, low grip strength and weight loss.At the end of the follow-up, 2.8% (n=108) of the sample was classified as frail. All four CVD risk scores were associated with future risk of developing frailty, with ORs per one SD increment in the score ranging from 1.35 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.51) for the Framingham stroke score to 1.42 (1.23 to 1.62) for the Framingham CVD score. These associations remained after excluding incident CVD cases. For comparison, the corresponding ORs for the risk scores and incident cardiovascular events varied between 1.36 (1.15 to 1.61) and 1.64 (1.50 to 1.80) depending on the risk algorithm.The use of CVD risk scores in clinical practice may also have utility for frailty prediction.
Project description:All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations.We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as 'high' or 'low' risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk.Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as 'high' or 'low' risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as 'high CVD risk' (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score.We found a high level of correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa.
Project description:The presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in childhood is a significant risk factor for later cardiovascular disease (CVD). Recent data showed temporal decreases in a sex- and race/ethnicity-specific MetS severity z-score among U.S. adolescents. Our goal was to characterize the relationship of this MetS z-score with other CVD risk indicators and assess their temporal trends and lifestyle influences.We analyzed 4837 participants aged 12-20years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey by 2-year waves from 1999 to 2012. We used linear regression to compare MetS z-score and dietary factors with serum levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL), apolipoprotein-B (ApoB), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and uric acid.MetS severity z-score was positively correlated with LDL, ApoB, hsCRP, and uric acid measurements (p<0.0001 for all). These correlations held true among individual racial/ethnic groups. LDL, ApoB, and hsCRP measurements decreased over time among U.S. adolescents (p=0.002, p<0.0001, and p=0.024, respectively). Saturated fat consumption was positively correlated with LDL (p=0.005) and ApoB (p=0.012) and inversely related to serum uric acid (p=0.001). Total caloric intake was inversely related to LDL (p=0.003) and serum uric acid (p=0.003). Unsaturated fat, carbohydrate, and protein consumption were not related to LDL, ApoB, hsCRP, or serum uric acid.There is a positive correlation between MetS severity and all four CVD risk indicators studied. LDL, ApoB, and hsCRP showed favorable temporal trends, which could be related to similar trends in MetS z-score. These data support the importance of considering multiple inter-related factors in clinical CVD risk assessment.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>National and international primary CVD risk screening guidelines focus on using total CVD risk scores. Recently, we developed a non-laboratory-based CVD risk score (inputs: age, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, body-mass index), which can assess risk faster and at lower costs compared to laboratory-based scores (inputs include cholesterol values). We aimed to assess the exchangeability of the non-laboratory-based risk score to four commonly used laboratory-based scores (Framingham CVD [2008, 1991 versions], and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE] for low and high risk settings) in an external validation population.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>Analyses were based on individual-level, score-specific rankings of risk for adults in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) aged 25-74 years, without history of CVD or cancer (n?=?5,999). Risk characterization agreement was based on overlap in dichotomous risk characterization (thresholds of 10-year risk >10-20%) and Spearman rank correlation. Risk discrimination was assessed using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis (10-year CVD death outcome). Risk characterization agreement ranged from 91.9-95.7% and 94.2-95.1% with Spearman correlation ranges of 0.957-0.980 and 0.946-0.970 for men and women, respectively. In men, c-statistics for the non-laboratory-based, Framingham (2008, 1991), and SCORE (high, low) functions were 0.782, 0.776, 0.781, 0.785, and 0.785, with p-values for differences relative to the non-laboratory-based score of 0.44, 0.89, 0.68 and 0.65, respectively. In women, the corresponding c-statistics were 0.809, 0.834, 0.821, 0.792, and 0.792, with corresponding p-values of 0.04, 0.34, 0.11 and 0.09, respectively.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Every score discriminated risk of CVD death well, and there was high agreement in risk characterization between non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based risk scores, which suggests that the non-laboratory-based score can be a useful proxy for Framingham or SCORE functions in resource-limited settings. Future external validation studies can assess whether the sex-specific risk discrimination results hold in other populations.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:We assessed whether changes in metabolic syndrome (MetS) severity during the treatment of prediabetes are associated with reduced risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:We analyzed data from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) for 2,476 adults in 1996-1999 with prediabetes randomized to receive treatment with lifestyle modification, metformin, or placebo for 2-3 years and followed through 2014 for T2DM and CVD outcomes. We calculated effect sizes from baseline in a MetS severity z score (MetS-Z) and the individual MetS components, and assessed relationships between 1-year effect size and incident T2DM and CVD using hazard ratios (HRs) and mediation analysis. RESULTS:Baseline MetS-Z and its components were associated with risk of incident T2DM and CVD. During year 1 of intervention, MetS-Z and its components decreased most with lifestyle modification, followed by treatment with metformin and placebo. Risk of T2DM within 1-5 years was most strongly associated with 1-year changes in MetS-Z and waist circumference (both HRs for a 1 SD increase = 1.80), whereas the risk of CVD was associated with a 1-year change in MetS-Z, glucose, and systolic blood pressure. In mediation analyses, the effect of lifestyle modification on T2DM risk was mediated by 1-year changes in MetS-Z, waist circumference, glucose, and triglycerides, whereas the effect of metformin was mediated by MetS-Z and glucose. CONCLUSIONS:Changes in these risk indicators of MetS severity during intervention in the DPP reflect altered disease risk and may help in tracking earlier responses to treatment and in motivating patients.