Assessing the Risk of Vaccine-derived Outbreaks After Reintroduction of Oral Poliovirus Vaccine in Postcessation Settings.
ABSTRACT: Background:The Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 calls for the gradual withdrawal of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization. We aimed to quantify the transmission potential of Sabin strains from OPV when it is reintroduced, accidentally or deliberately, in a community vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine alone. Methods:We built an individual-based stochastic epidemiological model that allows independent spread of 3 Sabin serotypes and differential transmission rates within versus between households. Model parameters were estimated by fitting to data from a prospective cohort in Mexico. We calculated the effective reproductive number for the Mexico cohort and simulated scenarios of Sabin strain resurgence under postcessation conditions, projecting the risk of prolonged circulation, which could lead to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV). Results:The estimated effective reproductive number for naturally infected individuals was about 1 for Sabin 2 and Sabin 3 (OPV2 and OPV3) in a postcessation setting. Most transmission events occurred between households. We estimated the probability of circulation for >9 months to be (1) <<1% for all 3 serotypes when 90% of children <5 years of age were vaccinated in a hypothetical outbreak control campaign; (2) 45% and 24% for Sabin 2 and Sabin 3, respectively, when vaccine coverage dropped to 10%; (3) 37% and 8% for Sabin 2 and Sabin 3, respectively, when a single active shedder appeared in a community. Conclusions:Critical factors determining the risk of cVDPV emergence are the scale at which OPV is reintroduced and the between-household transmission rate for poliovirus, with intermediate values posing the greatest risk.
Project description:In 2001, highly evolved type 1 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) was isolated from three acute flaccid paralysis patients and one contact from three separate communities in the Philippines. Complete genomic sequencing of these four cVDPV isolates revealed that the capsid region was derived from the Sabin 1 vaccine strain but most of the noncapsid region was derived from an unidentified enterovirus unrelated to the oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) strains. The sequences of the cVDPV isolates were closely related to each other, and the isolates had a common recombination site. Most of the genetic and biological properties of the cVDPV isolates were indistinguishable from those of wild polioviruses. However, the most recently identified cVDPV isolate from a healthy contact retained the temperature sensitivity and partial attenuation phenotypes. The sequence relationships among the isolates and Sabin 1 suggested that cVDPV originated from an OPV dose given in 1998 to 1999 and that cVDPV circulated along a narrow chain of transmission. Type 1 cVDPV was last detected in the Philippines in September 2001, and population immunity to polio was raised by extensive OPV campaigns in late 2001 and early 2002.
Project description:To assess the dynamics of genetic reversion of live poliovirus vaccine in humans, we studied molecular evolution in Sabin-like poliovirus isolates from Nigerian acute flaccid paralysis cases obtained from routine surveillance. We employed a novel modeling approach to infer substitution and recombination rates from whole-genome sequences and information about poliovirus infection dynamics and the individual vaccination history. We confirmed observations from a recent vaccine trial that VP1 substitution rates are increased for Sabin-like isolates relative to the rate for the wild type due to increased nonsynonymous substitution rates. We also inferred substitution rates for attenuating nucleotides and confirmed that reversion can occur in days to weeks after vaccination. We combine our observations for Sabin-like virus evolution with the molecular clock for VP1 of circulating wild-type strains to infer that the mean time from the initiating vaccine dose to the earliest detection of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) is 300 days for Sabin-like virus type 1, 210 days for Sabin-like virus type 2, and 390 days for Sabin-like virus type 3. Phylogenetic relationships indicated transient local transmission of Sabin-like virus type 3 and, possibly, Sabin-like virus type 1 during periods of low wild polio incidence. Comparison of Sabin-like virus recombinants with known Nigerian vaccine-derived poliovirus recombinants shows that while recombination with non-Sabin enteroviruses is associated with cVDPV, the recombination rates are similar for Sabin isolate-Sabin isolate and Sabin isolate-non-Sabin enterovirus recombination after accounting for the time from dosing to the time of detection. Our study provides a comprehensive picture of the evolutionary dynamics of the oral polio vaccine in the field.The global polio eradication effort has completed its 26th year. Despite success in eliminating wild poliovirus from most of the world, polio persists in populations where logistical, social, and political factors have not allowed vaccination programs of sustained high quality. One issue of critical importance is eliminating circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) that have properties indistinguishable from those of wild poliovirus and can cause paralytic disease. cVDPV emerges due to the genetic instability of the Sabin viruses used in the oral polio vaccine (OPV) in populations that have low levels of immunity to poliovirus. However, the dynamics responsible are incompletely understood because it has historically been difficult to gather and interpret data about evolution of the Sabin viruses used in OPV in regions where cVDPV has occurred. This study is the first to combine whole-genome sequencing of poliovirus isolates collected during routine surveillance with knowledge about the intrahost dynamics of poliovirus to provide quantitative insight into polio vaccine evolution in the field.
Project description:Circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) can emerge in areas with low poliovirus immunity and cause outbreaks* of paralytic polio (1-5). Among the three types of wild poliovirus, type 2 was declared eradicated in 2015 (1,2). The use of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV; types 1, 2, and 3 Sabin strains) ceased in April 2016 via a 1-month-long, global synchronized switch to bivalent OPV (bOPV; types 1 and 3 Sabin strains) in immunization activities (1-4). Monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2; type 2 Sabin strain) is available for cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreak response immunization (1-5). The number and geographic breadth of post-switch cVDPV2 outbreaks have exceeded forecasts that trended toward zero outbreaks 4 years after the switch and assumed rapid and effective control of any that occurred (4). New cVDPV2 outbreaks have been seeded by mOPV2 use, by both suboptimal mOPV2 coverage within response zones and recently mOPV2-vaccinated children or contacts traveling outside of response zones, where children born after the global switch are fully susceptible to poliovirus type 2 transmission (2-4). In addition, new emergences can develop by inadvertent exposure to Sabin OPV2-containing vaccine (i.e., residual response mOPV2 or tOPV) (4). This report updates the January 2018-June 2019 report with information on global cVDPV outbreaks during July 2019-February 2020 (as of March 25, 2020)† (2). Among 33 cVDPV outbreaks reported during July 2019-February 2020, 31 (94%) were cVDPV2; 18 (58%) of these followed new emergences. In mid-2020, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) plans to introduce a genetically stabilized, novel OPV type 2 (nOPV2) that has a lower risk for generating VDPV2 than does Sabin mOPV2; if nOPV2 is successful in limiting new VDPV2 emergences, GPEI foresees the replacement of Sabin mOPV2 with nOPV2 for cVDPV2 outbreak responses during 2021 (2,4,6).
Project description:From 1988 to 1993, 30 cases of poliomyelitis associated with poliovirus type 2 were found in seven governorates of Egypt. Because many of the cases were geographically and temporally clustered and because the case isolates differed antigenically from the vaccine strain, it was initially assumed that the cases signaled the continued circulation of wild type 2 poliovirus. However, comparison of sequences encoding the major capsid protein, VP1 (903 nucleotides), revealed that the isolates were related (93 to 97% nucleotide sequence identity) to the Sabin type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) strain and unrelated (<82% nucleotide sequence identity) to the wild type 2 polioviruses previously indigenous to Egypt (last known isolate: 1979) or to any contemporary wild type 2 polioviruses found elsewhere. The rate and pattern of VP1 divergence among the circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) isolates suggested that all lineages were derived from a single OPV infection that occurred around 1983 and that progeny from the initiating infection circulated for approximately a decade within Egypt along several independent chains of transmission. Complete genomic sequences of an early (1988) and a late (1993) cVDPV isolate revealed that their 5' untranslated region (5' UTR) and noncapsid- 3' UTR sequences were derived from other species C enteroviruses. Circulation of type 2 cVDPVs occurred at a time of low OPV coverage in the affected communities and ceased when OPV coverage rates increased. The potential for cVDPVs to circulate in populations with low immunity to poliovirus has important implications for current and future strategies to eradicate polio worldwide.
Project description:The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live-attenuated polioviruses that induce immunity by causing low virulence infections in vaccine recipients and their close contacts. Widespread immunization with OPV has reduced the annual global burden of paralytic poliomyelitis by a factor of 10,000 or more and has driven wild poliovirus (WPV) to the brink of eradication. However, in instances that have so far been rare, OPV can paralyze vaccine recipients and generate vaccine-derived polio outbreaks. To complete polio eradication, OPV use should eventually cease, but doing so will leave a growing population fully susceptible to infection. If poliovirus is reintroduced after OPV cessation, under what conditions will OPV vaccination be required to interrupt transmission? Can conditions exist in which OPV and WPV reintroduction present similar risks of transmission? To answer these questions, we built a multi-scale mathematical model of infection and transmission calibrated to data from clinical trials and field epidemiology studies. At the within-host level, the model describes the effects of vaccination and waning immunity on shedding and oral susceptibility to infection. At the between-host level, the model emulates the interaction of shedding and oral susceptibility with sanitation and person-to-person contact patterns to determine the transmission rate in communities. Our results show that inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) is sufficient to prevent outbreaks in low transmission rate settings and that OPV can be reintroduced and withdrawn as needed in moderate transmission rate settings. However, in high transmission rate settings, the conditions that support vaccine-derived outbreaks have only been rare because population immunity has been high. Absent population immunity, the Sabin strains from OPV will be nearly as capable of causing outbreaks as WPV. If post-cessation outbreak responses are followed by new vaccine-derived outbreaks, strategies to restore population immunity will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication.
Project description:From March to May 2006, type 1 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) was isolated from one case patient with acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and six unimmunized healthy contacts in isolated mountain villages in Guangxi, China. We conducted epidemiological investigations in the affected communities and nucleotide sequence analyses of the cVDPV isolates. The results of the investigations showed that the AFP patient, an unimmunized 10-year-old boy, and five laboratory-confirmed contacts lived in the same village; one contact lived in a neighboring village. Only approximately 27% of children 5 to 10 years of age in the affected villages had received three or more doses of the trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). Nucleotide sequence analyses revealed that the cVDPV isolates differed from the Sabin 1 (S1) isolate at 1.4 to 2.2% of VP1 nucleotide positions and shared 12 nucleotide substitutions within VP1. All isolates were S1/S2/S1/S3 recombinants sharing common recombination junctions. Key determinants of attenuation were replaced. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that the cVDPV circulated locally for approximately 12 months following the initiating OPV dose. No VDPVs were found after mass OPV immunizations, conducted from May to June 2006, that targeted all children <12 years of age. Our findings reinforce the point that VDPVs can emerge and spread in isolated communities with immunity gaps. Maintenance of sensitive AFP and poliovirus surveillance is essential to permit early detection and a rapid response to VDPV circulation.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>With wild poliovirus nearing eradication, preventing circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) by understanding oral polio vaccine (OPV) community circulation is increasingly important. Mexico, where OPV is given only during biannual national immunization weeks (NIWs) but where children receive inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) as part of their primary regimen, provides a natural setting to study OPV community circulation.<h4>Methods</h4>In total, 216 children and household contacts in Veracruz, Mexico, were enrolled, and monthly stool samples and questionnaires collected for 1 year; 2501 stool samples underwent RNA extraction, reverse transcription, and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect OPV serotypes 1, 2, and 3.<h4>Results</h4>OPV was detected up to 7 months after an NIW, but not at 8 months. In total, 35% of samples collected from children vaccinated the prior month, but only 4% of other samples, contained OPV. Although each serotype was detected in similar proportions among OPV strains shed as a result of direct vaccination, 87% of OPV acquired through community spread was serotype 2 (P < .0001).<h4>Conclusions</h4>Serotype 2 circulates longer and is transmitted more readily than serotypes 1 or 3 after NIWs in a Mexican community primarily vaccinated with IPV. This may be part of the reason why most isolated cVDPV has been serotype 2.
Project description:From August 2011 to February 2012, an outbreak caused by type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) occurred in Aba County, Sichuan, China. During the outbreak, four type 2 VDPVs (?0.6% nucleotide divergence in the VP1 region relative to the Sabin 2 strain) were isolated from 3 patients with acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) and one close contact. In addition, a type 2 pre-VDPV (0.3% to 0.5% divergence from Sabin 2) that was genetically related to these type 2 VDPVs was isolated from another AFP patient. These 4 patients were all unimmunized children 0.7 to 1.1 years old. Nucleotide sequencing revealed that the 4 VDPV isolates differed from Sabin 2 by 0.7% to 1.2% in nucleotides in the VP1 region and shared 5 nucleotide substitutions with the pre-VDPV. All 5 isolates were closely related, and all were S2/S3/S2/S3 recombinants sharing common recombination crossover sites. Although the two major determinants of attenuation and temperature sensitivity phenotype of Sabin 2 (A481 in the 5' untranslated region and Ile143 in the VP1 protein) had reverted in all 5 isolates, one VDPV (strain CHN16017) still retained the temperature sensitivity phenotype. Phylogenetic analysis of the third coding position of the complete P1 coding region suggested that the cVDPVs circulated locally for about 7 months following the initiating oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) dose. Our findings reinforce the point that cVDPVs can emerge and spread in isolated communities with immunity gaps and highlight the emergence risks of type 2 cVDPVs accompanying the trivalent OPV used. To solve this issue, it is recommended that type 2 OPV be removed from the trivalent OPV or that inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) be used instead.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Mass campaigns with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) have brought the world close to the eradication of wild poliovirus. However, to complete eradication, OPV must itself be withdrawn to prevent outbreaks of vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV). Synchronized global withdrawal of OPV began with serotype 2 OPV (OPV2) in April 2016, which presented the first test of the feasibility of eradicating all polioviruses. METHODS:We analyzed global surveillance data on the detection of serotype 2 Sabin vaccine (Sabin-2) poliovirus and serotype 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2, defined as vaccine strains that are at least 0.6% divergent from Sabin-2 poliovirus in the viral protein 1 genomic region) in stool samples from 495,035 children with acute flaccid paralysis in 118 countries and in 8528 sewage samples from four countries at high risk for transmission; the samples were collected from January 1, 2013, through July 11, 2018. We used Bayesian spatiotemporal smoothing and logistic regression to identify and map risk factors for persistent detection of Sabin-2 poliovirus and VDPV2. RESULTS:The prevalence of Sabin-2 poliovirus in stool samples declined from 3.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.5 to 4.3) at the time of OPV2 withdrawal to 0.2% (95% CI, 0.1 to 2.7) at 2 months after withdrawal, and the detection rate in sewage samples declined from 71.0% (95% CI, 61.0 to 80.0) to 13.0% (95% CI, 8.0 to 20.0) during the same period. However, 12 months after OPV2 withdrawal, Sabin-2 poliovirus continued to be detected in stool samples (<0.1%; 95% CI, <0.1 to 0.1) and sewage samples (8.0%; 95% CI, 5.0 to 13.0) because of the use of OPV2 in response to VDPV2 outbreaks. Nine outbreaks were reported after OPV2 withdrawal and were associated with low coverage of routine immunization (odds ratio, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.14 to 2.54] per 10% absolute decrease) and low levels of population immunity (odds ratio, 2.60 [95% CI, 1.35 to 5.59] per 10% absolute decrease) within affected countries. CONCLUSIONS:High population immunity has facilitated the decline in the prevalence of Sabin-2 poliovirus after OPV2 withdrawal and restricted the circulation of VDPV2 to areas known to be at high risk for transmission. The prevention of VDPV2 outbreaks in these known areas before the accumulation of substantial cohorts of children susceptible to type 2 poliovirus remains a high priority. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Health Organization.).
Project description:Background:As wild poliovirus is eradicated and countries switch from oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) per World Health Organization recommendations, preventing circulation of vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) is a top priority. Currently, the impact of prior poliovirus vaccination on OPV shedding is not fully understood. Methods:Stool samples from 2 populations were tested for OPV to assess shedding patterns. 505 samples from 43 US children vaccinated with OPV were collected over 42 days post-vaccination. 1,379 samples from 148 Mexican children vaccinated with OPV were collected over 71 days post-vaccination. Prior vaccination history was recorded for both groups. Results:Seventeen (40%) of the US children had never received poliovirus vaccination while the Mexican children had received at least 2 doses of IPV and 116 (78%) had OPV exposure. In total, 84% of US children and 78% of Mexican children shed OPV (P = .44, Fisher exact test), with a mean shedding duration of 17.4 days for US children and 9.3 days for Mexican children (P < .0001, Wilcoxon-Mann Whitney test). Conclusions:Prior vaccination did not affect the likelihood of shedding, as the US and Mexico cohorts had similar shedding proportions. However, prior vaccination affected shedding duration as the Mexican children, who were largely OPV exposed and all of whom had at least 2 IPV vaccinations, shed OPV for half as long as the US cohort. Since different countries maintain different poliovirus vaccination schedules, it is likely that duration of shedding of OPV varies in populations around the world.