Comparison Between Metabolic Syndrome and the Framingham Risk Score as Predictors of Cardiovascular Diseases Among Kazakhs in Xinjiang.
ABSTRACT: Metabolic syndrome (MS) and Framingham risk score (FRS) can be used for predicting the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Previous studies that compared FRS and MS have focused on high-income urban areas. This study focused on the comparison between FRS and MS when used in nomadic minorities in mountain areas. Moreover, an applicable tool for predicting the risk of developing CVD was identified. 2,286 participants who were recruited from the far west of China were followed-up for a median of 5.49 years. MS and FRS were compared in terms of their ability in predicting development of CVD using Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curve. After each component of MS was appraised, its area under the curve (AUC) was 0.647. When age was included, the AUC of MS risk score increased from 0.647 to 0.758 (P?
Project description:INTRODUCTION:The Framingham risk score (FRS) is widely used to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), but it neglects to account for social risk factors. Our study examined whether use of a cumulative social risk score in addition to the FRS improves prediction of CVD among South Korean adults. METHODS:We used nationally representative data on 19,147 adults aged 19 or older from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2016. We computed a cumulative social risk score (range, 0-3) based on 3 social risk factors: low household income, low level of education, and single-living status. CVD outcomes were stroke, myocardial infarction, and angina. Weighted logistic regression examined the associations between cumulative social risk, FRS, and CVD. McFadden pseudo-R2 and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) assessed model performance. We conducted mediation analyses to quantify the association between cumulative social risk score and CVD outcomes that is not mediated by the FRS. RESULTS:A unit increase in social risk was associated with 89.4% higher risk of stroke diagnosis, controlling for the FRS (P < .001). The FRS explained 8.0% of stroke diagnosis (R2) with fair discrimination (AUC = 0.728), and adding the cumulative social risk score enhanced R2 and AUC by 2.4% and 0.039. In the association between cumulative social risk and stroke, the proportion not mediated by the FRS was 65% (P < .001). We observed similar trends in myocardial infarction and angina, such that an increase in social risk was associated with increased relative risk of disease and improved disease diagnosis, and a large proportion of the association was not mediated by the FRS. CONCLUSION:Controlling for the FRS, cumulative social risks predicted stroke, myocardial infarction, and angina among adults in South Korea. Future research is needed to examine non-FRS mediators between cumulative social risk and CVD.
Project description:Background:Vascular age (VA) has recently emerged for CVD risk assessment and can either be computed using conventional risk factors (CRF) or by using carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) derived from carotid ultrasound (CUS). This study investigates a novel method of integrating both CRF and cIMT for estimating VA [so-called integrated VA (IVA)]. Further, the study analyzes and compares CVD/stroke risk using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS)-based risk calculator when adapting IVA against VA. Methods:The system follows a four-step process: (I) VA using cIMT based using linear-regression (LR) model and its coefficients; (II) VA prediction using ten CRF using a multivariate linear regression (MLR)-based model with gender adjustment; (III) coefficients from the LR-based model and MLR-based model are combined using a linear model to predict the final IVA; (IV) the final step consists of FRS-based risk stratification with IVA as inputs and benchmarked against FRS using conventional method of CA. Area-under-the-curve (AUC) is computed using IVA and benchmarked against CA while taking the response variable as a standardized combination of cIMT and glycated hemoglobin. Results:The study recruited 648 patients, 202 were Japanese, 314 were Asian Indian, and 132 were Caucasians. Both left and right common carotid arteries (CCA) of all the population were scanned, thus a total of 1,287 ultrasound scans. The 10-year FRS using IVA reported higher AUC (AUC =0.78) compared with 10-year FRS using CA (AUC =0.66) by ~18%. Conclusions:IVA is an efficient biomarker for risk stratifications for patients in routine practice.
Project description:In type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), it remains unclear whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) provides additional information about cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality beyond the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) factors.A total of 1,123 T2DM participants, ages 34-86 years, in the Diabetes Heart Study followed up for an average of 7.4 years were separated using baseline computed tomography scans of CAC (0-9, 10-99, 100-299, 300-999, and ?1,000). Logistic regression was performed to examine the association between CAC and CVD mortality adjusting for FRS. Areas under the curve (AUC) with and without CAC were compared. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) compared FRS (model 1) versus FRS+CAC (model 2) using 7.4-year CVD mortality risk categories 0% to <7%, 7% to <20%, and ?20%.Overall, 8% of participants died of cardiovascular causes during follow-up. In multivariate analysis, the odds ratios (95% CI) for CVD mortality using CAC 0-9 as the reference group were, CAC 10-99: 2.93 (0.74-19.55); CAC 100-299: 3.17 (0.70-22.22); CAC 300-999: 4.41(1.15-29.00); and CAC ?1,000: 11.23 (3.24-71.00). AUC (95% CI) without CAC was 0.70 (0.67-0.73), AUC with CAC was 0.75 (0.72-0.78), and NRI was 0.13 (0.07-0.19).In T2DM, CAC predicts CVD mortality and meaningfully reclassifies participants, suggesting clinical utility as a risk stratification tool in a population already at increased CVD risk.
Project description:The aim of this study was to compare the QRISKII, an electronic health data-based risk score, to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) score. Risk estimates were calculated for a cohort of 8783 patients, and the patients were followed up from November 29, 2012, through June 1, 2015, for a cardiovascular disease (CVD) event. During follow-up, 246 men and 247 women had a CVD event. Cohen's kappa statistic for the comparison of the QRISKII and FRS was 0.22 for men and 0.23 for women, with the QRISKII classifying more patients in the higher-risk groups. The QRISKII and ASCVD were more similar with kappa statistics of 0.49 for men and 0.51 for women. The QRISKII shows increased discrimination with area under the curve (AUC) statistics of 0.65 and 0.71, respectively, compared to the FRS (0.59 and 0.66) and ASCVD (0.63 and 0.69). These results demonstrate that incorporating additional data from the electronic health record (EHR) may improve CVD risk stratification.
Project description:<h4>Introduction</h4>To date, research is lacking on the development of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment tool for people with diabetes mellitus, in general, and for Chinese patients with diabetes in particular. We have explored CVD risk assessment tools for Chinese patients with diabetes. Here, we report our investigation of cardiovascular risk assessment using the improved Framingham Risk Score (I-FRS) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Beijing communities.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 3232 patients with T2DM attending Beijing community health centers were enrolled in this study. FRS were used to predict CVD risk in all patients at baseline using the following risk scores for glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) categories: 0?=?HbA1c ??7.0%; 1 =?7.0%?<?HbA1c? ??7.9%; 2?=?8.0%?<?HbA1c???8.9%; and 3?=?HbA1c?>?9.0%. The I-FRS was use to stratify all patients into low (I-FRS?<?10%), medium (I-FRS 10-20%), and high (I-FRS?>?20%) FRS strata. All treatments administered in the Beijing Communities Diabetes Study were in accordance with national guidelines for T2DM in China, and patients regularly attended clinical consultations with professors in endocrinology, who were experts in their respective speciality, from top tier hospitals. After 10 years, patients were followed-up to assess the long-term effects of the multifactorial interventions. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS® software (SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC, USA).<h4>Results</h4>The receiver operating characteristic curve of the I-FRS showed significant prediction accuracy for the actual incidence of CVD events. At baseline, subjects in the high FRS stratum for diabetes were more prone to be elderly and to have a longer duration of T2DM, higher systolic blood pressure, and higher lipid profiles. Subjects in the medium and high FRS strata had a higher incidence of CVD events than those in the no-complications group (DM group with no blood pressure issues) (P?<?0.001). The 10-year hazard ratios for CVD events in diabetic patients with I-FRS score?>?20% was 12.5-fold higher than that of patients with I-FRS score?<?10%. Multifactorial intervention significantly reduced the I-FRS of the three FRS strata in patients with T2DM. The post-intervention I-FRS for the hypertension and CVD groups of patients were significantly lower than the respective baseline I-FRS. Cox multivariate analyses revealed that patients in the medium and high FRS strata had higher incidences of endpoint events than those in the low FRS stratum.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The I-FRS plays an important role in predicting CVD in patients with T2DM. Multifactorial interventions for CVD risk factors over 10-year follow-up lowered the estimated 10-year risk for CVD events in persons with diabetes. We suggest the use of the I-FRS score to stratify a patient's risk of CVD when analyzing the efficacy of diabetes management. Aggressive risk reduction should be focused on those individuals with a high I-FRS score.<h4>Trial registration</h4>ChiCTR-TRC-13003978 and ChiCTR-OOC-15006090.
Project description:We assess the improvement in discrimination afforded by the addition of the computed tomography risk markers thoracic aorta calcium (TAC), aortic valve calcification (AVC), mitral annular calcification (MAC), pericardial adipose tissue volume (PAT), and liver attenuation (LA) to the Framingham risk score (FRS)?+?coronary artery calcium (CAC) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and incident cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in a multiethnic cohort.A total of 5745 participants were enrolled, with 2710 at intermediate Framingham risk, 210 CVD events, and 155 CHD events). Over 9 years of follow up, 251 had adjudicated CHD, 346 had CVD events, and 321 died. The data were analysed using Cox proportional hazard, receiver operator curve (ROC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analyses. In the whole cohort and also when the analysis was restricted to only the intermediate-risk participants, CAC, TAC, AVC, and MAC were all significantly associated with incident CVD, incident CHD, and mortality, and CAC had the strongest association. When added to the FRS, CAC had the highest area under the curve (AUC) for the prediction of incident CVD and incident CHD; LA had the least. The addition of TAC, AVC, MAC, PAT, and LA to FRS?+?CAC all resulted in a significant reduction in AUC for incident CHD (0.712 vs. 0.646, 0.655, 0.652, 0.648, and 0.569; all p?<?0.01, respectively) in participants with intermediate FRS. The addition of CAC to FRS resulted in an NRI of 0.547 for incident CHD in the intermediate-risk group. The NRI when TAC, AVC, MAC, PAT, and LA were added to FRS?+?CAC were 0.024, 0.026, 0.019, 0.012, and 0.012, respectively, for incident CHD in the intermediate-risk group. Similar results were obtained for incident CVD in the intermediate-risk group and also when the whole cohort was used instead of the intermediate FRS group.The addition of CAC to the FRS provides superior discrimination especially in intermediate-risk individuals compared with the addition of TAC, AVC, MAC, PAT, or LA for incident CVD and incident CHD. Compared with FRS?+?CAC, the addition of TAC, AVC, MAC, PAT, or LA individually to FRS?+?CAC worsens the discrimination for incident CVD and incident CHD. These risk markers are unlikely to be useful for improving cardiovascular risk prediction.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The high prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is observed among Kazakhs in Xinjiang. Because MetS may significantly predict the occurrence of CVD, the inclusion of CVD-related indicators in metabolic network may improve the predictive ability for a CVD-risk model for Kazakhs in Xinjiang. METHODS:The study included 2,644 subjects who were followed for 5 years or longer. CVD cases were identified via medical records of the local hospitals from April 2016 to August 2017. Factor analysis was performed in 706 subjects (267 men and 439 women) with MetS to extract CVD-related potential factors from 18 biomarkers tested in a routine health check-up, served as a synthetic predictor (SP). We evaluated the predictive ability of the CVD-risk model using age and SP, logistic regression discrimination for internal validation (n = 384; men = 164, women = 220) and external validation (n = 219; men = 89, women = 130), calculated the probability of CVD for each participant, and receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS:According to the diagnostic criteria of JIS, the prevalence of MetS in Kazakh was 30.9%. Seven potential factors with a similar pattern were obtained from men and women and comprised the CVD predictors. When predicting CVD in the internal validation, the area under the curve (AUC) were 0.857 (95%CI 0.807-0.898) for men and 0.852 (95%CI 0.809-0.889) for women, respectively. In the external validation, the AUC to predict CVD were 0.914 (95%CI 0.832-0.963) for men and 0.848 (95%CI 0.774-0.905) for women. It is suggested that SP might serve as a useful tool in identifying CVD with in Kazakhs, especially for Kazakhs men. CONCLUSIONS:Among 7 potential factors were extracted from 18 biomarkrs in Kazakhs with MetS, and SP may be used for CVD risk assessment.
Project description:BACKGROUND:To investigate whether the Triglyceride-Glucose index (TyG-index) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD)/coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS:A total of 7521 Iranians aged???30 years (male?=?3367) were included in the study. Multivariate Cox regression analyses (adjusted for age, gender, waist circumference, body mass index, educational level, smoking status, physical activity, family history of CVD, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, low and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid lowering drugs) were used to assess the risk of incident CVD/CHD across quintiles and for 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in the TyG-index. The cut off point for TyG-index was assessed by the minimum value of [Formula: see text]. We also examined the added value of the TyG-index in addition to the Framingham risk score when predicting CVD. RESULTS:During follow-up, 1084 cases of CVD (male?=?634) were recorded. We found a significant trend of TyG-index for incident CVD/CHD in multivariate analysis (both Ps for tend???0.002). Moreover, a 1-SD increase in TyG-index was associated with significant risk of CVD/CHD in multivariate analysis [1.16 (1.07-1.25) and 1.19 (1.10-1.29), respectively]. The cut-off value of TyG-index for incident CVD was 9.03 (59.2% sensitivity and 63.2% specificity); the corresponding value of TyG-index for incident CHD was 9.03 (60.0% sensitivity and 62.8% specificity), respectively. Although no interaction was found between gender and TyG-index for CVD/CHD in multivariate analysis (both Ps for interaction?>?0.085), the significant trend of TyG-index was observed only among females for incident CVD (P?=?0.035). A significant interaction was found between age groups (i.e.???60 vs?<?60 years) and TyG-index for CVD outcomes in the multivariate model (P-value for interaction?=?0.046). Accordingly, a significant association between the TyG-index and outcomes was found only among the younger age group. Among the population aged?<?60 the addition of TyG-index to the Framingham risk score (FRS) did not show improvement in the predictive ability of the FRS, using integrated discrimination improvement. CONCLUSION:The TyG-index is significantly associated with increased risk of CVD/CHD incidence; this issue was more prominent among the younger population. However, adding TyG-index to FRS does not provide better risk prediction for CVD.
Project description:Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) have limitations in stratifying cardio-metabolic risks. Another obesity measure, A Body Shape Index (ABSI), has been introduced but its applicability remains limited. To address this, the z-score of the log-transformed ABSI (LBSIZ) was recently developed. This study aimed to examine the ability of LBSIZ, compared to that of WC and BMI, to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. The study included 8,485 participants aged 40-69 years (mean age?=?52.1) who were followed for 10 years and recruited from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, a population-based cohort study. The area under the curve was 0.635 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.614-0.657) for LBSIZ, 0.604 (95%CI: 0.580-0.627) for WC, and 0.538 (95%CI: 0.514-0.562) for BMI. The AUC of the Framingham risk score (FRS) was 0.680 (95%CI: 0.659-0.701) in comparison. When we added LBSIZ to the model, the integrated AUC significantly improved from 0.680 to 0.692 (95%CI: 0.672-0.713; p value, 0.033), whereas there were no changes with BMI (AUC, 0.678; 95%CI: 0.656-0.699) or WC (AUC, 0.679; 95%CI: 0.658-0.701). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, LBSIZ but not BMI or WC showed a significant hazard ratio of CVD event compared to 1st decile of each parameter. In the restricted cubic spline regression, BMI and WC showed an overall J-shaped relationship with CVD events whereas LBSIZ showed a linear relationship. LBSIZ is strongly associated with CVD risk and should predict CVD risk better than BMI and WC in the general population.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is generally considered an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) development, but rates in individuals with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) are uncertain. The Framingham global CVD risk score (FRS) equation is a widely accepted tool used to predict CVD risk in the general population. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether an association exists between eGFR and FRS in a Chinese population with no CKD or CVD.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 333 participants were divided into three groups based on FRS. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation and CKD-EPI equation for Asians (CKD-EPI-ASIA) were used to measure eGFR.<h4>Results</h4>A significant inverse association between eGFR and FRS was confirmed with Pearson correlation coefficients of -0.669, -0.698 (eGFR(CKD-EPI), P<0.01) and -0.658, -0.690 (eGFR(CKD-EPI)-ASIA, P<0.01). This association gradually diminished with progression from the low- to high-risk groups (eGFR(CKD-EPI), r =?-0.615, -0.282, -0.197, P<0.01, P<0.01, P>0.05; similar results according to the CKD-EPI-ASIA equation). In the low- or moderate-risk new-groups, this association became stronger with increased FRS (eGFR(CKD-EPI)-ASIA, r =?-0557, -0.622 or -0.326, -0.329, P<0.01). In contrast to the results from 2008, eGFR was independently associated with FRS following adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (P<0.05).<h4>Conclusion</h4>Renal function has multiple influences on predicting CVD risk in various populations. With increasing FRS and decreasing eGFR, it is also independently associated with CVD, even in individuals with eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m(2).