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Prognostic Value of Biochemical Response Models for Primary Biliary Cholangitis and the Additional Role of the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio.

ABSTRACT: Background/Aims:Recently reported prognostic models for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) have been shown to be effective in Western populations but have not been well-validated in Asian patients. This study aimed to compare the performance of prognostic models in Korean patients and to investigate whether inflammation-based scores can further help in prognosis prediction. Methods:This study included 271 consecutive patients diagnosed with PBC in Korea. The following prognostic models were evaluated: the Barcelona model, the Paris-I/II model, the Rotterdam criteria, the GLOBE score and the UK-PBC score. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was analyzed with reference to its association with prognosis. Results:For predicting liver transplant or death at the 5-year and 10-year follow-up examinations, the UK-PBC score (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUCs], 0.88 and 0.82) and GLOBE score (AUCs, 0.85 and 0.83) were significantly more accurate in predicting prognosis than the other scoring systems (all p?0.05). There was no significant difference between the performance of the UK-PBC and GLOBE scores. In addition to the prognostic models, a high NLR (?2.46) at baseline was an independent predictor of reduced transplant-free survival in the multivariate analysis (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.74; p?0.01). When the NLR was applied to the prognostic models, it significantly differentiated the prognosis of patients. Conclusions:The UK-PBC and GLOBE scores showed good prognostic performance in Korean patients with PBC. In addition, a high NLR was associated with a poorer prognosis. Including the NLR in prognostic models may further help to stratify patients with PBC.


PROVIDER: S-EPMC6254625 | BioStudies | 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z

REPOSITORIES: biostudies

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