Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate.
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors that transmit several arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The world is presently experiencing a series of outbreaks of these diseases, so, we still require to better understand the current distributions and possible future shifts of their vectors for successful surveillance and control programs. Few studies assessed the influences of climate change on the spatial distributional patterns and abundance of these important vectors, particularly using the most recent climatic scenarios. Here, we updated the current potential distributions of both vectors and assessed their distributional changes under future climate conditions. METHODS:We used ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the potential distributions of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus under present-day and future climate conditions. This approach fits ecological niche model from occurrence records of each species and environmental variables. For each species, future projections were based on climatic data from 9 general circulation models (GCMs) for each representative concentration pathway (RCP) in each time period, with a total of 72 combinations in four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. All ENMs were tested using the partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) and a set of 2,048 and 2,003 additional independent records for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Finally, we used background similarity test to assess the similarity between the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. RESULTS:The predicted potential distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus coincided with the current and historical known distributions of both species. Aedes aegypti showed a markedly broader distributional potential across tropical and subtropical regions than Ae. albopictus. Interestingly, Ae. albopictus was markedly broader in distributional potential across temperate Europe and the United States. All ecological niche models (ENMs) were statistically robust (P < 0.001). ENMs successfully anticipated 98% (1,999/2,048) and 99% (1,985/2,003) of additional independent records for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively (P < 0.001). ENMs based on future conditions showed similarity between the overall distributional patterns of future-day and present-day conditions; however, there was a northern range expansion in the continental USA to include parts of Southern Canada in case of Ae. albopictus in both 2050 and 2070. Future models also anticipated further expansion of Ae. albopictus to the East to include most of Europe in both time periods. Aedes aegypti was anticipated to expand to the South in East Australia in 2050 and 2070. The predictions showed differences in distributional potential of both species between diverse RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Finally, the background similarity test comparing the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was unable to reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity between both species (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION:These updated maps provided details to better guide surveillance and control programs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They have also significant public health importance as a baseline for predicting the emergence of arboviral diseases transmitted by both vectors in new areas across the world.
Project description:Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses-especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika-is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are mosquito vectors of more than 22 arboviruses that infect humans. OBJECTIVES:Our objective was to develop regional ecological niche models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the conterminous United States and Canada with current observed and simulated climate and land-use data using boosted regression trees (BRTs). METHODS:We used BRTs to assess climatic suitability for Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in Canada and the United States under current and future projected climates. RESULTS:Models for both species were mostly influenced by minimum daily temperature and demonstrated high accuracy for predicting their geographic ranges under the current climate. The northward range expansion of suitable niches for both species was projected under future climate models. Much of the United States and parts of southern Canada are projected to be suitable for both species by 2100, with Ae. albopictus projected to expand its range north earlier this century and further north than Ae. aegypti. DISCUSSION:Our projections suggest that the suitable ecological niche for Aedes will expand with climate change in Canada and the United States, thus increasing the risk of Aedes-transmitted arboviruses. Increased surveillance for these vectors and the pathogens they carry would be prudent. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5899.
Project description:Between 2014 and 2016 more than 3,800 imported human cases of chikungunya fever in Florida highlight the high risk for local transmission. To examine the potential for sustained local transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Florida we tested whether local populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus show differences in susceptibility to infection and transmission to two emergent lineages of CHIKV, Indian Ocean (IOC) and Asian genotypes (AC) in laboratory experiments. All examined populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes displayed susceptibility to infection, rapid viral dissemination into the hemocoel, and transmission for both emergent lineages of CHIKV. Aedes albopictus had higher disseminated infection and transmission of IOC sooner after ingesting CHIKV infected blood than Ae. aegypti. Aedes aegypti had higher disseminated infection and transmission later during infection with AC than Ae. albopictus. Viral dissemination and transmission of AC declined during the extrinsic incubation period, suggesting that transmission risk declines with length of infection. Interestingly, the reduction in transmission of AC was less in Ae. aegypti than Ae. albopictus, suggesting that older Ae. aegypti females are relatively more competent vectors than similar aged Ae. albopictus females. Aedes aegypti originating from the Dominican Republic had viral dissemination and transmission rates for IOC and AC strains that were lower than for Florida vectors. We identified small-scale geographic variation in vector competence among Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus that may contribute to regional differences in risk of CHIKV transmission in Florida.
Project description:Dengue fever is endemic in Malaysia, contributing to significant economic and health burden in the country. Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the main vectors of the dengue virus (DENV), which circulates in sylvatic and human transmission cycles and has been present in Malaysia for decades. The study investigated the presence and distribution of DENV in urban localities in the Klang Valley, Peninsular Malaysia. A total of 364 Ae. aegypti and 1,025 Ae. albopictus larvae, and 10 Ae. aegypti and 42 Ae. albopictus adult mosquitoes were screened for the presence of DENV. In total, 31 (2.2%) samples were positive, of which 2 Ae. albopictus larvae were co-infected with two serotypes, one with DENV-2 and DENV-3 and the other with DENV-3 and DENV-4. Phylogenetic analysis determined that the isolates belonged to DENV-1 genotype I (1 Ae. aegypti adult), DENV-2 (1 Ae. albopictus larva), DENV-3 genotype V (3 Ae. aegypti larvae and 10 Ae. albopictus larvae) and DENV-4 genotype IV (6 Ae. aegypti larvae and 12 Ae. albopictus larvae), a sylvatic strain of DENV-4 which was most closely related with sylvatic strains isolated from arboreal mosquitoes and sentinel monkeys in Peninsular Malaysia in the 1970s. All four DENV serotypes were co-circulating throughout the study period. The detection of a sylvatic strain of DENV-4 in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes in urban areas in Peninsular Malaysia highlights the susceptibility of these vectors to infection with sylvatic DENV. The infectivity and vector competence of these urban mosquitoes to this strain of the virus needs further investigation, as well as the possibility of the emergence of sylvatic virus into the human transmission cycle.
Project description:Zika virus (ZIKV) is a Flavivirus (Flaviviridae) transmitted to humans mainly by the bite of an infected Aedes mosquitoes. Aedes aegypti is the primary epidemic vector of ZIKV and Ae. albopictus, the secondary one. However, the epidemiological role of both Aedes species in Central Africa where Ae. albopictus was recently introduced is poorly characterized. Field-collected strains of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus from different ecological settings in Central Africa were experimentally infected with a ZIKV strain isolated in West Africa. Mosquitoes were analysed at 14- and 21-days post-exposure. Both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were able to transmit ZIKV but with higher overall transmission efficiency for Ae. aegypti (57.9%) compared to Ae. albopictus (41.5%). In addition, disseminated infection and transmission rates for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus varied significantly according to the location where they were sampled from. We conclude that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus are able to transmit ZIKV and may intervene as active Zika vectors in Central Africa. These findings could contribute to a better understanding of the epidemiological transmission of ZIKV in Central Africa and develop suitable strategy to prevent major ZIKV outbreaks in this region.
Project description:The dramatic global expansion of Aedes albopictus in the last three decades has increased public health concern because it is a potential vector of numerous arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), including the most prevalent arboviral pathogen of humans, dengue virus (DENV). Ae. aegypti is considered the primary DENV vector and has repeatedly been incriminated as a driving force in dengue's worldwide emergence. What remains unresolved is the extent to which Ae. albopictus contributes to DENV transmission and whether an improved understanding of its vector status would enhance dengue surveillance and prevention. To assess the relative public health importance of Ae. albopictus for dengue, we carried out two complementary analyses. We reviewed its role in past dengue epidemics and compared its DENV vector competence with that of Ae. aegypti. Observations from "natural experiments" indicate that, despite seemingly favorable conditions, places where Ae. albopictus predominates over Ae. aegypti have never experienced a typical explosive dengue epidemic with severe cases of the disease. Results from a meta-analysis of experimental laboratory studies reveal that although Ae. albopictus is overall more susceptible to DENV midgut infection, rates of virus dissemination from the midgut to other tissues are significantly lower in Ae. albopictus than in Ae. aegypti. For both indices of vector competence, a few generations of mosquito colonization appear to result in a relative increase of Ae. albopictus susceptibility, which may have been a confounding factor in the literature. Our results lead to the conclusion that Ae. albopictus plays a relatively minor role compared to Ae. aegypti in DENV transmission, at least in part due to differences in host preferences and reduced vector competence. Recent examples of rapid arboviral adaptation to alternative mosquito vectors, however, call for cautious extrapolation of our conclusion. Vector status is a dynamic process that in the future could change in epidemiologically important ways.
Project description:The number of dengue fever incidence and its distribution has increased considerably in recent years in Africa. However, due to inadequate research at the continental level, there is a limited understanding regarding the current and future spatial distribution of the main vector, the mosquitoAedes aegypti, and the associated dengue risk due to climate change. To fill this gap we used reported dengue fever incidences, the presence of Ae. aegypti, and bioclimatic variables in a species distribution model to assess the current and future (2050 and 2070) climatically suitable areas. High temperatures and with high moisture levels are climatically suitable for the distribution of Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever. Under the current climate scenario indicated that 15.2% of the continent is highly suitable for dengue fever outbreaks. We predict that climatically suitable areas for Ae. aegypti related to dengue fever incidences in eastern, central and western part of Africa will increase in the future and will expand further towards higher elevations. Our projections provide evidence for the changing continental threat of vector-borne diseases and can guide public health policy decisions in Africa to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue fever risk.
Project description:Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the major epidemic vectors of several arbovirus diseases such as yellow fever, dengue, Zika and chikungunya worldwide. Both Aedes vectors are presents in Cameroon; however, knowledge on the dynamic of the distribution of these species across cities and their resistance profile to insecticide are limited. Here, we assessed the current distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Yaoundé, the Capital City, established the resistance profile to insecticides and explored the resistance mechanisms involved.Immature stages of Aedes were sampled in several breeding sites in December 2015 (dry season) and June 2016 (rainy season) in three central neighborhoods and four peripheral neighborhoods and reared to adult stage. The G0 adults were used for molecular identification and genotyping of F1534C mutation in Ae. aegypti. Bioassays and piperonyl butoxide (PBO) assays were carried out according to WHO guidelines.Analysis revealed that both species Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus are present in all prospected sites in Yaounde. However, in the dry season Ae. aegypti is most abundant in neighborhoods located in downtown. In contrast, Ae. albopictus was found most prevalent in suburbs whatever the season and in downtown during the rainy season. Bioassay analysis showed that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, are resistant to 0.05% deltamethrin, 0.1% bendiocarb and 4% dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). A decreased of susceptibility to 0.75% permethrin and a full susceptibility to malathion 5% was observed. The mortality rate was increased after pre-exposure to synergist PBO. None of Ae. aegypti assayed revealed the presence of F1534C mutation.These findings are useful to planning vector control programme against arbovirus vectors in Cameroon and can be used as baseline in Africa where data on Aedes resistance is very scarce to plan further works.
Project description:Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the main vectors transmitting dengue and chikungunya viruses. Despite being pathogens of global public health importance, knowledge of their vectors' global distribution remains patchy and sparse. A global geographic database of known occurrences of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus between 1960 and 2014 was compiled. Herein we present the database, which comprises occurrence data linked to point or polygon locations, derived from peer-reviewed literature and unpublished studies including national entomological surveys and expert networks. We describe all data collection processes, as well as geo-positioning methods, database management and quality-control procedures. This is the first comprehensive global database of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence, consisting of 19,930 and 22,137 geo-positioned occurrence records respectively. Both datasets can be used for a variety of mapping and spatial analyses of the vectors and, by inference, the diseases they transmit.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are important vectors of infectious diseases, especially those caused by arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Aedes aegypti is very well adapted to urban environments, whereas Ae. albopictus inhabits more rural settings. Pyrethroid resistance is widespread in these vectors, but limited data exist from the Southwest Pacific Region, especially from Melanesia. While Aedes vector ecology is well documented in Australia, where incursion of Ae. albopictus and pyrethroid resistance have so far been prevented, almost nothing is known about Aedes populations in neighbouring Papua New Guinea (PNG). With pyrethroid resistance documented in parts of Indonesia but not in Australia, it is important to determine the distribution of susceptible and resistant Aedes populations in this region. METHODS:The present study was aimed at assessing Aedes populations for insecticide resistance in Madang and Port Moresby, located on the north and south coasts of PNG, respectively. Mosquitoes were collected using ovitraps and reared in an insectary. Standard WHO bioassays using insecticide-treated filter papers were conducted on a total of 253 Ae. aegypti and 768 Ae. albopictus adult mosquitoes. Subsets of samples from both species (55 Ae. aegypti and 48 Ae. albopictus) were screened for knockdown resistance mutations in the voltage-sensitive sodium channel (Vssc) gene, the target site of pyrethroid insecticides. RESULTS:High levels of resistance against pyrethroids were identified in Ae. aegypti from Madang and Port Moresby. Aedes albopictus exhibited susceptibility to pyrethroids, but moderate levels of resistance to DDT. Mutations associated with pyrethroid resistance were detected in all Ae. aegypti samples screened. Some genotypes found in the present study had been observed previously in Indonesia. No Vssc mutations associated with pyrethroid resistance were found in the Ae. albopictus samples. CONCLUSIONS:To our knowledge, this is the first report of pyrethroid resistance in Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in PNG. Interestingly, usage of insecticides in PNG is low, apart from long-lasting insecticidal nets distributed for malaria control. Further investigations on how these resistant Ae. aegypti mosquito populations arose in PNG and how they are being sustained are warranted.