Zika virus: Epidemiological surveillance of the Mexican Institute of Social Security.
ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:At the end of 2015, the first cases of Zika were identified in southern Mexico. During 2016, Zika spread as an outbreak to a large part of the country's coastal zones. METHODOLOGY:The Zika epidemiological surveillance system records cases with clinical symptoms of Zika virus disease (ZVD) and those confirmed by means of a reverse polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. This report includes the suspected and confirmed cases from 2016. Incidence rates were estimated by region and in pregnant women based on the proportion of confirmed cases. RESULTS:In total, 43,725 suspected cases of ZVD were reported. The overall incidence of suspected cases of ZVD was 82.0 per 100,000 individuals and 25.3 per 100,000 Zika cases. There were 4,168 pregnant women with suspected symptoms of ZVD, of which infection was confirmed in 1,082 (26%). The estimated incidence rate of ZVD for pregnant women nationwide was 186.1 positive Zika cases per 100,000 pregnant women. CONCLUSIONS:The incidence of Zika in Mexico is higher than that reported previously in the National System of Epidemiological Surveillance. Positive cases of Zika must be estimated and reported.
Project description:A survey among 573 pregnant women in Greece was conducted through self-completion of a questionnaire in July 2016. Traveling abroad the last six months was declared by 10.5% and 13.0% of pregnant women and their male sex partners, respectively, while 77.4% (441/570) had heard about Zika virus disease (ZVD). A lack of knowledge about sexual transmission of ZVD was identified in 63.3% of pregnant women, and 24.1% of responders did not know the risks to the fetus and baby. Approximately 73% of responders believed that the mosquito bites can affect their fetus and baby and 18% did not take measures to prevent mosquito bites routinely. Multivariable logistic regression models showed that traveling abroad the last six months by pregnant women correlated with correctly answering the question about the transmission of ZVD through bites of infected mosquitoes (Odds Ratio, OR = 10.47, 95% CI = 1.11-98.41). Traveling abroad with a male sex partner over the last six months correlated (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 0.99-4.23) with responding correctly to the four key questions about the transmission of ZVD through mosquito bites, the risk of microcephaly, and the risks of traveling to the affected countries. A score of ?5 for the nine responses given to questions of knowledge and attitudes was associated with a Bachelor of Science degree (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.09-2.18), antenatal care at a public hospital (OR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.28-3.98), being a civil servant as occupation (OR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.10-3.48), and having gotten information about ZVD from the public health sector (OR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.05-3.98). In conclusion, we found considerable knowledge gaps related to ZVD among Greek pregnant women. These study results are useful in targeting pregnant women for the prevention of potential Zika virus infections.
Project description:Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Colombia in September 2015. As of April 2016, Colombia had reported over 65,000 cases of Zika virus disease (ZVD). We analysed daily surveillance data of ZVD cases reported to the health authorities of San Andres and Girardot, Colombia, between September 2015 and January 2016. ZVD was laboratory-confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the serum of acute cases within five days of symptom onset. We use daily incidence data to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) in each population. We identified 928 and 1,936 reported ZVD cases from San Andres and Girardot, respectively. The overall attack rate for reported ZVD was 12.13 cases per 1,000 residents of San Andres and 18.43 cases per 1,000 residents of Girardot. Attack rates were significantly higher in females in both municipalities (p?<?0.001). Cases occurred in all age groups with highest rates in 20 to 49 year-olds. The estimated R0 for the Zika outbreak was 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.74) in San Andres and 4.61 (95% CI: 4.11-5.16) in Girardot. Transmission of ZIKV is ongoing in the Americas. The estimated R0 from Colombia supports the observed rapid spread.
Project description:We developed a dynamic forecasting model for Zika virus (ZIKV), based on real-time online search data from Google Trends (GTs). It was designed to provide Zika virus disease (ZVD) surveillance and detection for Health Departments, and predictive numbers of infection cases, which would allow them sufficient time to implement interventions. In this study, we found a strong correlation between Zika-related GTs and the cumulative numbers of reported cases (confirmed, suspected and total cases; p<0.001). Then, we used the correlation data from Zika-related online search in GTs and ZIKV epidemics between 12 February and 20 October 2016 to construct an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (0, 1, 3) for the dynamic estimation of ZIKV outbreaks. The forecasting results indicated that the predicted data by ARIMA model, which used the online search data as the external regressor to enhance the forecasting model and assist the historical epidemic data in improving the quality of the predictions, are quite similar to the actual data during ZIKV epidemic early November 2016. Integer-valued autoregression provides a useful base predictive model for ZVD cases. This is enhanced by the incorporation of GTs data, confirming the prognostic utility of search query based surveillance. This accessible and flexible dynamic forecast model could be used in the monitoring of ZVD to provide advanced warning of future ZIKV outbreaks.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Pertussis is an important public health problem worldwide, especially in infants. An increase in the incidence in many countries occurred after 2010, including Brazil. In 2013, dTpa vaccine was introduced in the Brazil national immunization schedule of pregnant women. The objective of this study was to evaluate the national trends in the incidence of pertussis in Brazil in children under 1 year old, and the impact of the introduction of dTpa vaccine during pregnancy. METHODS:The incidence of hospitalizations and non-hospitalized confirmed cases of pertussis in neonates (< 1 month age) and young infants (1 month-< 1 year age) were analyzed, comparing the incidence in pre maternal vaccination (2011-2013) with the post-vaccination (2015-2017). We used non-respiratory hospitalizations as comparison, during the same period. A database of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (DATASUS) was used to analyze cases from 2007 to 2017 and the subsets of 2011-2013 and 2015-2017, after Pertussis resurgence. The vaccination data was accessed through the link of the Information System of the National Immunization Program (pni.datasus.gov.br). RESULTS:Between 2007 and 2017, 17,818 children under one year of age were hospitalized due to pertussis in Brazil. In the pre maternal vaccination period 2011-2013, the mean annual incidence of non-hospitalized confirmed cases of pertussis in children under 1 month was 722.2 / 100,000 and in the period of 2015-2017 the average was 377.3 / 100,000, representing a decrease of 47.7% [IRR 0.52 (0.46-0.59)]. At those periods of time, the average incidence per year for children of one month-< 1 year aged was 64.9 / 100,000 (2011-2013) and 29.3 / 100,000 (2015-2017) [IRR 0.45 (CI 0.29-0.69)]. CONCLUSION:Vaccination of pregnant woman coincides with the reduction in the number of cases of pertussis in children under 1 month of age from 2015. Immunization of pregnant woman seems to have an important impact on the prevention of the disease in young infants who have not yet received their own pertussis vaccine.
Project description:BACKGROUND:A Zika virus (ZIKV) infection outbreak occurred in Brazil in 2015, accompanied by a marked increase in the number of newborns presenting with microcephaly and other neurological disorders. This characteristic set of birth defects was later termed congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). The therapeutic itinerary of mothers and children infected by ZIKV can be determined by several factors, including the relationship established with existing healthcare services. Here, we aimed to describe and analyze the extent to which children with CZS, born from 2015 to 2018 in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, and their mothers were treated according to the guidelines established by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS:This was a descriptive cross-sectional study that considered all children (and respective mothers) with confirmed or suspected CZS born in Mato Grosso do Sul. Children and their mothers were identified based on all suspected or confirmed cases of congenital anomalies in Mato Grosso do Sul that were reported to the Registry of Public Health Events. We analyzed data on the epidemiological profile of mother-child pairs and the care received by them. Data were summarized using statistical descriptive analysis. RESULTS:We showed that most mothers were white women (57%) with low income. Among pregnant women, 73% had a diagnosis of fever caused by ZIKV infection at a primary health care institution (PHCI), but only 36% received the necessary information regarding the risk of CZS. Over a third (36%) of the mothers did not receive guidance about childcare follow-up and 73% did not receive guidance regarding the availability of social support after childbirth. Gaps in medical care were observed mainly in pregnant women treated at a PHCI. Specialized assistance for children was adequate in most cases. Psychosocial support was not made available to women throughout their therapeutic itineraries. CONCLUSIONS:Here, we identified gaps in the care of families and children with disabilities, which can have an important impact on their quality of life. Beyond protocols, practical interventions must cover all the needs that arise throughout the therapeutic itineraries not only of children but also of pregnant women and mothers.
Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Ulcerative Colitis (UC) and Crohn's Disease (CD) have a major impact on quality of life and medical costs. The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence, incidence and clinical phenotypes of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) cases in Mexico and Colombia. METHODS:We analyzed official administrative and health databases, used mathematical modelling to estimate the incidence and complete prevalence, and performed a case-series of IBD patients at a referral center both in Mexico and Colombia. RESULTS:The age-adjusted complete prevalence of UC per 100,000 inhabitants for 2015/2016 ranged from 15.65 to 71.19 in Mexico and from 27.40 to 69.97 in Colombia depending on the model considered. The prevalence of CD per 100,000 inhabitants in Mexico ranged from 15.45 to 18.08 and from 16.75 to 18.43 in Colombia. In Mexico, the age-adjusted incidence of UC per 100,000 inhabitants per year ranged from 0.90 to 2.30, and from 0.55 to 2.33 in Colombia. The incidence for CD in Mexico ranged from 0.35 to 0.66 whereas in Colombia, the age-adjusted incidence of CD ranged from 0.30 to 0.57. The case-series included 200 IBD patients from Mexico and 204 patients from Colombia. The UC/CD prevalence ratio in Mexico and Colombia was 1.50:1 and 4.5:1 respectively. In Mexico, the female/male prevalence ratio for UC was 1.50:1 and 1.28:1 for CD, while in Colombia this ratio was 0.68:1 for UC and 0.8:1 for CD. In Mexico the relapse rate for UC was 63.3% and 72.5% for CD, while those rates in Colombia were 58.2% for UC and 58.3% for CD. CONCLUSIONS:The estimated burden of disease of IBD in Mexico and Colombia is not negligible. Although these findings need to be confirmed by population-based studies, they are useful for decision-makers, practitioners and patients with this condition.
Project description:Adequate calcium intake during pregnancy is important in the prevention of pre-eclampsia. A substantial proportion of pregnant women do not meet the recommended daily calcium intake, even in developed countries. Nonetheless, calcium supplementation is not routinely advised to pregnant women in most countries. We aimed to predict the impact of advising pregnant women to use calcium supplements (1,000 mg/day) on the number of cases of pre-eclampsia prevented and related health care costs. By use of a decision-analytic model, we assessed the expected impact of advising calcium supplementation to either (1) all pregnant women, (2) women at high risk of developing pre-eclampsia, or (3) women with a low dietary calcium intake compared with current care. Calculations were performed for a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 pregnant women living in a high-income country, although input parameters of the model can be adjusted so as to fit other settings. The incidence of pre-eclampsia could be reduced by 25%, 8%, or 13% when advising calcium supplementation to all pregnant women, women at high risk of pre-eclampsia, or women with a low dietary calcium intake, respectively. Expected net financial benefits of the three scenarios were of €4,621,465, €2,059,165, or €2,822,115 per 100,000 pregnant women, respectively. Advising pregnant women to use calcium supplements can be expected to cause substantial reductions in the incidence of pre-eclampsia as well as related health care costs. It appears most efficient to advise calcium supplementation to all pregnant women, not subgroups only.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate fetal ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging findings among a series of pregnant women with confirmed Zika virus infection to evaluate the signs of congenital Zika syndrome with respect to timing of infection. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective case series of pregnant women referred to two perinatal clinics in Barranquilla and Ibagué, Colombia, who had findings consistent with congenital Zika syndrome and Zika virus infection confirmed in maternal, fetal, or neonatal samples. Serial ultrasound measurements, fetal magnetic resonance imaging results, laboratory results, and perinatal outcomes were evaluated. RESULTS:We describe 17 cases of confirmed prenatal maternal Zika virus infection with adverse fetal outcomes. Among the 14 symptomatic women, the median gestational age for maternal Zika virus symptoms was 10 weeks (range 7-14 weeks of gestation). The median time between Zika virus symptom onset and microcephaly (head circumference less than 3 standard deviations below the mean) was 18 weeks (range 15-24 weeks). The earliest fetal head circumference measurement consistent with microcephaly diagnosis was at 24 weeks of gestation. The earliest sign of congenital Zika syndrome was talipes equinovarus, which in two patients was noted first at 19 weeks of gestation. Common findings on fetal magnetic resonance imaging were microcephaly, ventriculomegaly, polymicrogyria, and calcifications. CONCLUSION:Our analysis suggests a period of at least 15 weeks between maternal Zika virus infection in pregnancy and development of microcephaly and highlights the importance of serial and detailed neuroimaging.
Project description:Since its first outbreak in 2007 in the Pacific (Yap islands and Federal States of Micronesia), Zika virus has gradually and recently spread to the Americas in 2015. The neurotropic character of the virus was first noted during this outbreak in Brazil in 2015. Increasing number of infants born with microcephaly and other congenital deformities were identified through studies that have highlighted the importance of prevention of transmission of Zika virus in pregnant women. Long-term outcomes in infants born with this infection are now better understood than at the time of onset of this outbreak. Topics covered in this review include the history, modes of transmission, diagnosis of suspected cases, pathophysiology, complications, and prevention of Zika virus infection.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Zika virus caused thousands of congenital anomalies during a recent epidemic. Because Zika emerged in areas endemic for dengue and these related flaviviruses elicit cross-reactive antibodies, it is challenging to serologically monitor pregnant women for Zika infection. METHODS:A prospective cohort of 253 pregnant women was established in León, Nicaragua. Women were followed during prenatal care through delivery. Serologic specimens were obtained at each visit, and birth outcome was recorded. Established flavivirus serologic methods were adapted to determine Zika seroprevalence, and a stepwise testing algorithm estimated timing of Zika infection in relation to pregnancy. RESULTS:Zika seroprevalence was approximately 59% among women tested. Neutralization testing was highly concordant with Zika NS1 BOB results. Per study algorithm, 21% (40/187) of women were classified as experiencing Incident ZIKV infection during pregnancy. Importantly, the Incident ZIKV group included mostly women pregnant during the 2016 Zika epidemic peak and the only 3 subjects in the cohort with RT-PCR-confirmed infections. Approximately 17% of births had complications; 1.5% (3/194) manifesting clinical criteria of congenital Zika syndrome, one was RT-PCR-confirmed as a case of congenital Zika syndrome. Adverse birth outcome did not correlate with timing of Zika infection. CONCLUSIONS:By leveraging prenatal care systems, we developed a simple algorithm for identifying women who were likely infected by Zika during pregnancy.