Five-Year Risk of Cervical Precancer Following p16/Ki-67 Dual-Stain Triage of HPV-Positive Women.
ABSTRACT: Importance:As cervical cancer screening transitions to primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing, effective triage and management of HPV-positive women is critical to avoid unnecessary colposcopy referral and associated harms while maintaining high sensitivity for cervical precancer. Triage with p16/Ki-67 dual-stain (DS) testing has shown high sensitivity and specificity for detection of cervical precancers; however, longitudinal studies are needed to determine the long-term risk of precancer following a negative DS result. Objective:To evaluate the longitudinal performance of p16/Ki-67 DS triage for detection of cervical precancer in HPV-positive women over 5 years of follow-up in the context of clinical management thresholds. Design, Setting, and Participants:Prospective cohort study of HPV-positive women 30 years or older undergoing routine cervical cancer screening in 2012 with HPV and Papanicolaou (hereinafter "cytology") co-testing within the Kaiser Permanente Northern California health care system. Follow-up of medical records was conducted through 2017. Exposures:All p16/Ki-67 DS testing was performed on residual SurePath material, and slides were evaluated for p16/Ki-67 positivity. Main Outcomes and Measures:Histological end points were ascertained from the clinical database through 2017. We estimated 5-year cumulative risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades of 2 or worse (≥CIN2) or grades 3 or worse (≥CIN3) by baseline DS and cytology at yearly intervals using Logistic Weibull models. Risks were compared with clinical management thresholds for colposcopy referral and a 1-year return interval. Results:Among the 1549 HPV-positive women in this study, the mean age at enrollment was 42.2 years, and the median follow-up time was 3.7 years (range, 0.2-5.4 years). Positive DS results were associated with significantly higher cumulative 5-year risks of ≥CIN2 compared with abnormal cytology (31.0%; 95% CI, 27.2%-35.3% vs 25.0%; 95% CI, 21.7%-28.7%; P = .03). Women with DS-negative findings had significantly lower 5-year risks of ≥CIN2 compared with women with normal cytology (8.5%; 95% CI, 6.5%-11.1% vs 12.3%; 95% CI, 9.8%-15.4%; P = .04). In DS-negative women, the risks of both ≥CIN2 and ≥CIN3 remained below the colposcopy referral threshold for all 5 years, crossing the 1-year return threshold at 3 years. Conclusions and Relevance:Triage with p16/Ki-67 DS provides better long-term risk stratification than cytology over 5 years. The low risk of cervical precancer in p16/Ki-67 DS-negative women permits safe extension of follow-up intervals for 3 years.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Pap cytology is known to be more specific but less sensitive than testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) for the detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+). We assessed whether p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology, a biomarker combination indicative of transforming HPV infections, can provide high sensitivity for CIN2+ in screening while maintaining high specificity. Results were compared with Pap cytology and HPV testing.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 27,349 women 18 years or older attending routine cervical cancer screening were prospectively enrolled in five European countries. Pap cytology, p16/Ki-67 immunostaining, and HPV testing were performed on all women. Positive test results triggered colposcopy referral, except for women younger than 30 years with only positive HPV test results. Presence of CIN2+ on adjudicated histology was used as the reference standard. Two-sided bias-corrected McNemar P values were determined.<h4>Results</h4>The p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology positivity rates were comparable with the prevalence of abnormal Pap cytology results and less than 50% of the positivity rates observed for HPV testing. In women of all ages, dual-stained cytology was more sensitive than Pap cytology (86.7% vs 68.5%; P < .001) for detecting CIN2+, with comparable specificity (95.2% vs 95.4%; P = .15). The relative performance of the tests was similar in both groups of women: younger than age 30 and 30 years or older. HPV testing in women 30 years or older was more sensitive than dual-stained cytology (93.3% vs 84.7%; P = .03) but less specific (93.0% vs 96.2%; P < .001).<h4>Conclusions</h4>The p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology combines superior sensitivity and noninferior specificity over Pap cytology for detecting CIN2+. It suggests a potential role of dual-stained cytology in screening, especially in younger women where HPV testing has its limitations.
Project description:The objective of this study was to compare the accuracies of double staining for p16/Ki-67 and the molecular test for high-risk HPV (hr-HPV) to identify high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2/CIN3) in women with cervical cytology of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). Data were collected from 201 women who underwent cervical cytology screening in the Barretos Cancer Hospital and their results were categorized as ASC-US (n=96) or LSIL (n=105). All patients underwent colposcopy with or without cervical biopsy for diagnosis of CIN2/CIN3. The hr-HPV test (Cobas 4800 test) and immunocytochemistry were performed to detect biomarkers p16/Ki-67 (CINtec PLUS test). Two samples (1 ASC-US/1 LSIL) were excluded from the analysis due to inconclusive results of the histologic examination. There were 8 cases of CIN2/CIN3 among 95 women with ASC-US (8.4%), and 23 cases of CIN2/CIN3 among 104 women with LSIL (22.1%). In the group of women with ASC-US, the sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing CIN2/CIN3 were 87.5% and 79.5% for the HPV test and 62.5% and 93.1% for p16/Ki-67. Among women with LSIL, the sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of CIN2/CIN3 were 87% and 34.7% for the HPV test and 69.6% and 75.3% for immunocytochemistry. Superior performance was observed for p16/Ki-67 double staining, especially among women under 30 for whom the test had an area under the ROC curve of 0.762 (p<0.001). Both p16/Ki-67 double staining and the hr-HPV DNA test had similar performance in predicting high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia among women with ASC-US. The best performance was observed in women aged >30 years. In younger women (?30 years) with LSIL, p16/Ki-67 had greater accuracy in identifying precursor lesions. Among women >30 years diagnosed with LSIL, the two methods showed similar performance.
Project description:BACKGROUND: Women with borderline/mildly dyskaryotic (BMD) cytology smears are currently followed up with repeat testing at 6 and 18 months. The objective of this study is to analyse the cross-sectional and longitudinal performance of p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) and CIN2+ in women with BMD, and to compare the results with baseline human papillomavirus (HPV) testing. METHODS: Conventional Pap cytology specimens of 256 women with BMD were dual stained for p16/Ki-67 retrospectively, and compared with baseline HPV results and long-term follow-up results. RESULTS: p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology showed a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 64.4% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100.% for CIN3+. Human papillomavirus testing demonstrated similar sensitivity (96.3%), and NPV (99.1%), but a significantly lower specificity (57.6%; P=0.024) for CIN3+. Sensitivity, specificity and NPV for CIN2+ of dual-stained cytology were 89.7%, 73.1% and 95.1%, respectively, which was similar when compared with HPV testing. Dual-stained cytology showed a significant lower referral rate than HPV testing (43.6% vs 49.1%; P=0.043). During long-term follow-up, no CIN3+ lesions developed in HPV-positive, dual-stained negative women. CONCLUSIONS: Comparable sensitivity and NPV of dual-stained cytology for CIN3+, combined with a significantly higher specificity, makes p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology a viable alternative to HPV testing for triaging BMD.
Project description:To evaluate the association of p16/Ki-67 co-expression and persistence of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection as well as cervical abnormalities.We performed a 3-year cohort study among which 2498 Chinese women aged 25 to 65 years were screened by different HPV tests in 2011. 690 women who were positive at any of the tests and a random sample of 164 women with all negative results received colposcopy, cervical specimens for cobas HPV test (Roche diagnostics) were collected before colposcopy; of this group, 737 cervical specimens were collected to perform cobas, Liquid-based cytology, HPV E6 test (Arbor Vita Corporation) and p16/Ki-67 dual staining (Roche diagnostics) in 2014. Colposcopy and biopsies was performed on women with any abnormal result.Compared to women without HR-HPV persistent infection, women in the HR-HPV persistence group had a higher risk of p16/Ki-67 positive, with an adjusted Odds Ratio(OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of 6.29 (4.07-9.72); moreover, adjusted odds ratio for women who had HPV16/18 persistent infection was nearly 4-folder higher than women with other 12 HR-HPV persistent infection (adjusted OR = 17.15, 95% CI: 7.11-41.33 vs adjusted OR = 4.68, 95% CI: 2.89-7.58). Additionally, p16/Ki-67 positivity rate significantly increased with the severity of the cytological and histological abnormalities, and resulted strongly associated with a CIN2+ diagnosis (OR = 16.03, 95% CI: 4.46-57.59).p16/Ki-67 co-expressions associated strongly with HR-HPV persistence, especially with HPV16/18, and the presence of a CIN2+ lesion. Therefore, p16/Ki-67 could be considered as a suitable biomarker for cervical cancer screening, particularly in HPV-based screening programs.
Project description:PURPOSE:Cytology-based screening has limited sensitivity to detect prevalent cervical precancers. Human papilloma virus (HPV) DNA testing is highly sensitive and provides a high, long-term reassurance of low risk of cervical cancer. However, the specificity of HPV DNA testing is limited, requiring additional, more disease-specific markers for efficient screening approaches. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN:Liquid-based cytology samples were collected from 625 women referred to colposcopy. A slide was stained using the CINtec plus cytology assay. Pap cytology and HPV genotyping were conducted from the same vial. Clinical performance characteristics were calculated for all women, stratified by age, and for women referred with a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) Pap. RESULTS:p16/Ki-67 positivity increased with histologic severity, from 26.8% in normal histology, 46.5% in CIN1, 82.8% in CIN2 to 92.8% in CIN3. Among women with CIN3, p16/Ki-67 positivity increased from 77.8% for women younger than 30 years without HPV16 to 100% for women 30 years and older with HPV16. The sensitivity and specificity to detect CIN3+ were 93.2% and 46.1%, respectively, and increased to 97.2% and 60.0% among women 30 years and older. In women with high-risk (HR)-HPV-positive atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) and LSIL, sensitivity and specificity for detection of CIN3 were 90.6% and 48.6%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:p16/Ki-67 testing could reduce referral to colposcopy by almost half while detecting the most severe cases of CIN3. The high sensitivity of p16/Ki-67 with significantly improved specificity compared with HPV testing makes p16/Ki-67 a viable option for LSIL triage. Further studies are required to evaluate p16/Ki-67 as triage marker in HPV-based screening strategies.
Project description:Objective:To evaluate the efficiency of p16/Ki-67 dual stain used as a triage in cervical cancer screening. Methods:In this study, we did 468 p16/Ki-67 dual stain in human papillomavirus (HPV) 16/18-positive or 12 other high-risk HPV (OHR-HPV) positive Thinprep cytologic test (TCT) atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS)/ lower-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) women. We evaluated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of the triage test. Results:The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of p16/Ki-67 dual stain in HPV 16/18-positive women were 91.5%/68.4%, 77.0%/75.0%, 73.9%/59.1% and 92.8%/81.8%. In 12 OHR-HPV positive TCT ASCUS/LSIL women, the results were 79.1%/95.0%, 88.5%/66.7%, 88.5%/70.4% and 89.2%/94.1%. The risk of precancerous lesions in p16/Ki-67 dual stain positive cases was much higher than before, and the negative cases had lower risk. Besides, there was no cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) III case missed after triaged by p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology. In p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology positive women with benign pathology or CIN I, the 1-year progression rate is 20.5% and in p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology negative women, the 1-year progression rate is 5.6%. Conclusions:hr-HPV genotyping test plays an important role in cervical cancer screening. p16/Ki-67 dual stain may be a promising triage test. As for chronic cervicitis or CIN I patients, a positive p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology suggests a high risk in progression and need to be followed up closely.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) DNA tests are highly sensitive and can triage women with mild lesions, improving the prognosis and diagnosis of cervical lesions. However, additional efficient strategies should be developed to improve the specificity of these tests. METHODS:This study aimed to evaluate the clinical value of HPV DNA load in improving the diagnosis and prognosis of cervical lesions by p16/Ki-67 testing. Histological samples were collected from 350 women with HR-HPV genotyping and analyzed by qRT-PCR. Immunohistochemical staining was used to assess p16 and Ki-67 expression and clinical performance characteristics were calculated. RESULTS:Of the cases, 271 had detectable HR-HPV infection, in which HPV-16 was most prevalent (52.0%), followed by HPV-58 (22.5%). P16/Ki-67-positivity increased with histological severity but not for HR-HPV infection. Amongst the 13 HR-HPV genotypes, only HPV-16 (P = 0.016) and HPV-58 (P = 0.004) viral loads significantly correlated with lesion severity. The P16/Ki-67/HPV DNA load co-test indicated an increased sensitivity for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) lesions compared to p16/Ki-67 staining in HPV-16 and/or 58 positive cases. Viral load did not improve the sensitivity of p16/Ki-67 co-test in non-HPV-16 or 58 positive cases. The clinical performance of the p16/Ki-67/HPV DNA load co-test was limited for the prediction of the outcome of CIN1 lesions. However, amongst the 12 HPV-16 and/or 58 positive CIN2 cases in which return visit results were obtained, the behavior of the lesions could be predicted, with a sensitivity, specificity, positive prediction rate (PPV), and negative prediction rate (NPV) of 0.667, 1, 1 and 0.5, respectively. CONCLUSION:Combination of the assessment of HPV DNA load with the intensity of p16 and Ki-67 staining could increase the sensitivity of CIN lesion diagnosis and predict the outcome of CIN2 in patients with a HPV-16 and/or 58 infection.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Self-sampling for human papillomavirus (HPV) offered to women who do not participate in cervical cancer screening is an increasingly popular method to increase screening coverage. The rationale behind self-sampling is that unscreened women harbour a high proportion of undetected precancer lesions. Here, we compare the cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (?CIN2) detection rate between non-attenders who participated in self-sampling and women attending routine screening. METHODS:A total of 23?632 women who were qualified as non-attenders in the Copenhagen Region were invited for HPV-based self-sampling. Of these, 4824 women returned a self-sample, and HPV-positive women were referred for cytology and HPV co-testing as follow-up. The entire cohort and a reference cohort (3347 routinely screened women) were followed for histopathology confirmed ?CIN2. Odds ratio (OR) and the relative positive predictive value of ?CIN2 detection between the two populations were estimated. RESULTS:Women participating in self-sampling had a higher ?CIN2 detection than women undergoing routine cytology-based screening (OR=1.83, 95% CI: 1.21-2.77) and a similar detection as routinely screened women tested with cytology and HPV testing (OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.75-1.40). The positive predictive value for ?CIN2 was higher in screening non-attenders than in routinely HPV- and cytology-screened screened women (36.5% vs 25.6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:Self-sampling offered to non-attenders showed higher detection rates for ?CIN2 than routine cytology-based screening, and similar detection rates as HPV and cytology co-testing. This reinforces the importance of self-sampling for screening non-attenders in organised cervical cancer screening.
Project description:Background:State-of-the-art cervical cancer prevention includes human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination among adolescents and screening/treatment of cervical precancer (CIN3/AIS and, less strictly, CIN2) among adults. HPV testing provides sensitive detection of precancer but, to reduce overtreatment, secondary "triage" is needed to predict women at highest risk. Those with the highest-risk HPV types or abnormal cytology are commonly referred to colposcopy; however, expert cytology services are critically lacking in many regions. Methods:To permit completely automatable cervical screening/triage, we designed and validated a novel triage method, a cytologic risk score algorithm based on computer-scanned liquid-based slide features (FocalPoint, BD, Burlington, NC). We compared it with abnormal cytology in predicting precancer among 1839 women testing HPV positive (HC2, Qiagen, Germantown, MD) in 2010 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). Precancer outcomes were ascertained by record linkage. As additional validation, we compared the algorithm prospectively with cytology results among 243 807 women screened at KPNC (2016-2017). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results:Among HPV-positive women, the algorithm matched the triage performance of abnormal cytology. Combined with HPV16/18/45 typing (Onclarity, BD, Sparks, MD), the automatable strategy referred 91.7% of HPV-positive CIN3/AIS cases to immediate colposcopy while deferring 38.4% of all HPV-positive women to one-year retesting (compared with 89.1% and 37.4%, respectively, for typing and cytology triage). In the 2016-2017 validation, the predicted risk scores strongly correlated with cytology (P < .001). Conclusions:High-quality cervical screening and triage performance is achievable using this completely automated approach. Automated technology could permit extension of high-quality cervical screening/triage coverage to currently underserved regions.
Project description:There are limited data on the prospective risks of detecting cervical precancer and cancer in United States (US) populations specifically where the delivery of opportunistic cervical screening takes place outside managed care and in the absence of organized national programs. Such data will inform the management of women with positive screening results before and after widespread human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and establishes a baseline preceding recent changes in US cervical cancer screening guidelines. Using data reported to the statewide passive surveillance systems of the New Mexico HPV Pap Registry, we measured the 3-year HPV type-specific cumulative incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe (CIN2+) and grade 3 or more severe (CIN3+) detected during real-world health care delivery across a diversity of organizations, payers, clinical settings, providers and patients. A stratified sample of 47,541 cervical cytology specimens from a screening population of 379,000 women underwent HPV genotyping. Three-year risks for different combinations of cytologic interpretation and HPV risk group ranged from <1% (for several combinations) to approximately 70% for CIN2+ and 55% for CIN3+ in women with high-grade (HSIL) cytology and HPV16 infection. A substantial proportion of CIN2+ (35.7%) and CIN3+ (30.9%) were diagnosed following negative cytology, of which 62.3 and 78.2%, respectively, were high-risk HPV positive. HPV16 had the greatest 3-year risks (10.9% for CIN2+,8.0% for CIN3+) followed by HPV33, HPV31, and HPV18. Positive results for high-risk HPV, especially HPV16, the severity of cytologic interpretation, and age contribute independently to the risks of CIN2+ and CIN3+.