Correlated multistate models for multiple processes: an application to renal disease progression in systemic lupus erythematosus.
ABSTRACT: Bidirectional changes over time in the estimated glomerular filtration rate and in urine protein content are of interest for the treatment and management of patients with lupus nephritis. Although these processes may be modelled by separate multistate models, the processes are likely to be correlated within patients. Motivated by the lupus nephritis application, we develop a new multistate modelling framework where subject-specific random effects are introduced to account for the correlations both between the processes and within patients over time. Models are fitted by using bespoke code in standard statistical software. A variety of forms for the random effects are introduced and evaluated by using the data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:Little is known about the long-term costs of lupus nephritis (LN). The costs were compared between patients with and without LN using multistate modeling. METHODS:Patients from 32 centers in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort within 15 months of diagnosis and provided annual data on renal function, hospitalizations, medications, dialysis, and selected procedures. LN was diagnosed by renal biopsy or the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria. Renal function was assessed annually using the estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) or estimated proteinuria. A multistate model was used to predict 10-year cumulative costs by multiplying annual costs associated with each renal state by the expected state duration. RESULTS:A total of 1,545 patients participated; 89.3% were women, the mean ± age at diagnosis was 35.2 ± 13.4 years, 49% were white, and the mean followup duration was 6.3 ± 3.3 years. LN developed in 39.4% of these patients by the end of followup. Ten-year cumulative costs were greater in those with LN and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <30 ml/minute ($310,579 2015 Canadian dollars versus $19,987 if no LN and estimated GFR >60 ml/minute) or with LN and estimated proteinuria >3 gm/day ($84,040 versus $20,499 if no LN and estimated proteinuria <0.25 gm/day). CONCLUSION:Patients with estimated GFR <30 ml/minute incurred 10-year costs 15-fold higher than those with normal estimated GFR. By estimating the expected duration in each renal state and incorporating associated annual costs, disease severity at presentation can be used to anticipate future health care costs. This is critical knowledge for cost-effectiveness evaluations of novel therapies.
Project description:To validate clinical indices of lupus nephritis activity and damage when used in children against the criterion standard of kidney biopsy findings.In 83 children requiring kidney biopsy, the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index renal domain (SLEDAI-R), British Isles Lupus Assessment Group index renal domain (BILAG-R), Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) renal activity score (SLICC-RAS), and SLICC Damage Index renal domain (SDI-R) were measured. Fixed effects and logistic models were calculated to predict International Society of Nephrology/Renal Pathology Society (ISN/RPS) class; low-to-moderate versus high lupus nephritis activity (National Institutes of Health [NIH] activity index [AI]) score: ?10 versus >10; tubulointerstitial activity index (TIAI) score: ?5 versus >5; or the absence versus presence of lupus nephritis chronicity (NIH chronicity index) score: 0 versus ?1.There were 10, 50, and 23 patients with ISN/RPS class I/II, III/IV, and V, respectively. Scores of the clinical indices did not differentiate among patients by ISN/RPS class. The SLEDAI-R and SLICC-RAS but not the BILAG-R differed with lupus nephritis activity status defined by NIH-AI scores, while only the SLEDAI-R scores differed between lupus nephritis activity status based on TIAI scores. The sensitivity and specificity of the SDI-R to capture lupus nephritis chronicity was 23.5% and 91.7%, respectively. Despite being designed to measure lupus nephritis activity, SLICC-RAS and SLEDAI-R scores significantly differed with lupus nephritis chronicity status.Current clinical indices of lupus nephritis fail to discriminate ISN/RPS class in children. Despite its shortcomings, the SLEDAI-R appears best for measuring lupus nephritis activity in a clinical setting. The SDI-R is a poor correlate of lupus nephritis chronicity.
Project description:Lupus nephritis is a manifestation of SLE resulting from glomerular immune complex deposition and inflammation. Lupus nephritis demonstrates familial aggregation and accounts for significant morbidity and mortality. We completed a meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies of SLE to identify lupus nephritis-predisposing loci. Through genotyping and imputation, >1.6 million markers were assessed in 2000 unrelated women of European descent with SLE (588 patients with lupus nephritis and 1412 patients with lupus without nephritis). Tests of association were computed using logistic regression adjusting for population substructure. The strongest evidence for association was observed outside the MHC and included markers localized to 4q11-q13 (PDGFRA, GSX2; P=4.5×10(-7)), 16p12 (SLC5A11; P=5.1×10(-7)), 6p22 (ID4; P=7.4×10(-7)), and 8q24.12 (HAS2, SNTB1; P=1.1×10(-6)). Both HLA-DR2 and HLA-DR3, two well established lupus susceptibility loci, showed evidence of association with lupus nephritis (P=0.06 and P=3.7×10(-5), respectively). Within the class I region, rs9263871 (C6orf15-HCG22) had the strongest evidence of association with lupus nephritis independent of HLA-DR2 and HLA-DR3 (P=8.5×10(-6)). Consistent with a functional role in lupus nephritis, intra-renal mRNA levels of PDGFRA and associated pathway members showed significant enrichment in patients with lupus nephritis (n=32) compared with controls (n=15). Results from this large-scale genome-wide investigation of lupus nephritis provide evidence of multiple biologically relevant lupus nephritis susceptibility loci.
Project description:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:In 2012, the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics proposed that lupus nephritis, in the presence of positive ANA or anti-dsDNA antibody, is sufficient to diagnose SLE. However, this "stand-alone" kidney biopsy criterion is problematic because the ISN/RPS classification does not specifically define lupus nephritis. We investigated the combination of pathologic features with optimal sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of lupus nephritis. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS:Three hundred consecutive biopsies with lupus nephritis and 560 contemporaneous biopsies with nonlupus glomerulopathies were compared. Lupus nephritis was diagnosed if there was a clinical diagnosis of SLE and kidney biopsy revealed findings compatible with lupus nephritis. The control group consisted of consecutives biopsies showing diverse glomerulopathies from patients without SLE, including IgA nephropathy, membranous glomerulopathy, pauci-immune glomerulonephritis, membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (excluding C3 GN), and infection-related glomerulonephritis. Sensitivity and specificity of individual pathologic features and combinations of features were computed. RESULTS:Five characteristic features of lupus nephritis were identified: "full-house" staining by immunofluorescence, intense C1q staining, extraglomerular deposits, combined subendothelial and subepithelial deposits, and endothelial tubuloreticular inclusions, each with sensitivity ranging from 0.68 to 0.80 and specificity from 0.8 to 0.96. The presence of at least two, three, or four of the five criteria had a sensitivity of 0.92, 0.8, and 0.66 for the diagnosis of lupus nephritis, and a specificity of 0.89, 0.95, and 0.98. CONCLUSIONS:In conclusion, combinations of pathologic features can distinguish lupus nephritis from nonlupus glomerulopathies with high specificity and varying sensitivity. Even with stringent criteria, however, rare examples of nonlupus glomerulopathies may exhibit characteristic features of lupus nephritis.
Project description:Objective:To determine the association of systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index (SLEDAI) score in pediatric onset SLE (p-SLE) with clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods:This cross sectional observational study was conducted at Division of Rheumatology, Fatima Memorial Hospital, Lahore from November 2018 to January 2019. Total 23 patients diagnosed with p-SLE having onset of symptoms at ? 18 years of age, irrespective of their current age at presentation, of either gender, fulfilling criteria of 2012 Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) criteria were enrolled. Patients' clinical symptoms and laboratory parameters were reviewed, SLEDAI scores were calculated. Collected Data were entered in proforma and analyzed on SPSS version 23. Results:There were 91.3% females. Mean age at diagnosis was 11years ± 4years. At presentation patients had hematological involvement 69.6% followed by mucocutaneous symptoms 65.2% and renal involvement 21.6%. ANA by IFA was positive in all, while anti-ds-DNA was positive in 78.3% patients. SLEDAI score was ?6 in 87% patients, average SLEDAI score was higher in patients with renal involvement (p=0.06). Elevated ESR (r=0.48, p=0.02), Anti-dsDNA (r=0.44, p=0.05) and low complement levels (p=0.03) were significantly positively correlated, while hemoglobin (r= -0.43, p=0.04) was negatively correlated with the SLEDAI score. Conclusion:In this study, patients with Lupus Nephritis had high SLEDAI scores. Elevated Anti-dsDNA titer, ESR, low complement levels and hemoglobin were significantly associated with high SLEDAI scores. We recommend that SLEDAI score should be calculated in p-SLE patients for stringent disease monitoring and treatment.
Project description:Renal involvement is one of the most severe manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Renal biopsy is the gold standard when it comes to knowing whether a patient has lupus nephritis, and the degree of renal disease present. However, the biopsy has various complications, bleeding being the most common. Therefore, the development of alternative, non-invasive diagnostic tests for kidney disease in patients with SLE is a priority. Micro RNAs (miRNAs) are differentially expressed in various tissues, and changes in their expression have been associated with several pathological processes. The aim of this study was to identify changes in the abundance of miRNAs in plasma samples from patients with lupus nephritis that could potentially allow the diagnosis of renal damage in SLE patients. This is an observational case-control cross-sectional study, in which we characterized the differential abundance profiles of miRNAs among patients with different degrees of lupus compared with SLE patients without renal involvement and healthy control individuals. We found 89 miRNAs with changes in their abundance between lupus nephritis patients and healthy controls, and 17 miRNAs that showed significant variations between SLE patients with or without renal involvement. Validation for qPCR of a group of miRNAs on additional samples from lupus patients with or without nephritis, and from healthy individuals, showed that five miRNAs presented an average detection sensitivity of 97%, a specificity of 70.3%, a positive predictive value of 82.5%, a negative predictive value of 96% and a diagnosis efficiency of 87.9%. These results strongly suggest that miR-221-5p, miR-380-3p, miR-556-5p, miR-758-3p and miR-3074-3p are potential diagnostic biomarkers of lupus nephritis in patients with SLE. The observed differential pattern of miRNA abundance may have functional implications in the pathophysiology of SLE renal damage.
Project description:Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic inflammatory disease characterized by a loss of tolerance to self-antigens and the production of high titers of serum autoantibodies. Lupus nephritis can affect up to 74% of SLE patients, particularly those of Hispanic and African ancestries, and remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. A genetic etiology in SLE is now well substantiated. Thanks to extensive collaborations, extraordinary progress has been made in the past few years and the number of confirmed genes predisposing to SLE has catapulted to approximately 30. Studies of other forms of genetic variation, such as copy number variants and epigenetic alterations, are emerging and promise to revolutionize our knowledge about disease mechanisms. However, to date little progress has been made on the identification of genetic factors specific to lupus nephritis. On the near horizon, two large-scale efforts, a collaborative meta-analysis of lupus nephritis based on all genome-wide association data in Caucasians and parallel scans in four other ethnicities, are poised to make fundamental discoveries in the genetics of lupus nephritis. Collectively, these findings will show that a broad array of pathways underlines the genetic heterogeneity of SLE and lupus nephritis, and provide potential avenues for the development of novel therapies.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To examine correlations between blood levels of complement split product iC3b and serum component C3 with clinically meaningful changes in disease activity in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS:A total of 159 consecutive patients with SLE, diagnosed according to the American College of Rheumatology or Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics classification criteria, were enrolled in CASTLE (Complement Activation Signatures in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus), a prospective observational study. Patients with 1-7 study visits were included in this longitudinal analysis. In addition, 48 healthy volunteers were enrolled to establish a normal reference value for the ratio of blood iC3b to serum C3 concentrations. Serum C3 and C4 levels were measured by nephelometry, and blood iC3b levels were measured by a lateral flow assay. SLE disease activity was monitored with the Responder Index 50 instrument of the SLE Disease Activity Index 2000. RESULTS:Relative changes in the iC3b:C3 ratio, levels of anti-double-stranded DNA (anti-dsDNA) antibodies, and use of a supraphysiologic dose of prednisone (>7.5 mg/day) each independently correlated with SLE disease activity, as determined in multilevel multiple logistic regression analyses. Only the iC3b:C3 ratio was significantly associated with clinically meaningful improvements in disease activity among patients with SLE who were receiving a supraphysiologic dose of prednisone. The iC3b:C3 ratio outperformed C3 and C4 levels with regard to discriminating active SLE from inactive SLE, and major flares from no disease activity. The iC3:C3 ratio, anti-dsDNA antibody levels, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and use of a supraphysiologic prednisone dose were each independently associated with the presence of lupus nephritis, whereas none of these measures was associated with SLE rash. The association of the iC3b:C3 ratio with lupus nephritis was independent of other observed clinical manifestations. CONCLUSION:The ratio of blood iC3b to serum C3 concentrations correlates with the extent of SLE disease activity and with clinically meaningful changes in disease activity in patients with SLE. Furthermore, the iC3b:C3 ratio may discriminate between active and inactive SLE, and between major flares and no active disease.
Project description:Despite growing evidence that large intergenic noncoding RNAs (lincRNAs) can regulate gene expression and widely take part in normal physiological and disease conditions, our knowledge of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)-related lincRNAs remains limited. The aim of this study was to detect the levels of four lincRNAs (ENST00000500949: linc0949, ENST00000500597: linc0597, ENST00000501992: linc1992, and ENST00000523995: linc3995) involved in innate immunity in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of patients with SLE and correlate these lincRNA levels with disease activity, organ damage, clinical features and medical therapies.PBMCs were obtained from 102 patients with SLE, 54 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and 76 healthy donors. lincRNA expression levels were measured by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Disease activity was assessed using the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) scores, and organ damage was evaluated with the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index.linc0949 and linc0597 were significantly decreased in patients with SLE compared with patients with RA and healthy control subjects. linc0949 was correlated with SLEDAI-2K score (r = -0.329, P = 0.0007), as well as with complement component C3 level (r = 0.348, P = 0.0003). The level of linc0949 was also reduced in patients with SLE who had the presence of cumulative organ damage. In addition, decreasing expression of linc0949 was associated with lupus nephritis. linc0949 expression significantly increased after treatment, whereas neither disease activity nor organ damage correlated with linc0597 expression.Our results provide novel empirical evidence that linc0949 could be a potential biomarker for diagnosis, disease activity and therapeutic response in SLE.
Project description:Awareness of the spectrum of clinical manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), especially uncommon changes, is essential for diagnosis and effective management of patients.A 26-year-old Chinese man with SLE initially manifested cutaneous papulonodular mucinosis and developed acute Guillain-Barré syndrome and class V lupus nephritis 2 years later. His cutaneous nodules had not been idententified for 2 years and were resected by surgical procedures twice until SLE was diagnosed. The kidney biopsy revealed class V lupus nephritis. The patient responded well to a short course of intravenous immunoglobulins and his muscle strength almost completely recovered. So far, he has undergone five cycles of cyclophosphamide combined with hydroxychloroquine and tapering prednisone, resulting in partial remission of lupus nephritis and disappearance of hypocomplementemia.We reported a rare case of male patient with SLE with manifestation of class V lupus nephritis, Guillain-Barré syndrome and papulonodular mucinosis.