Phylogeography and species distribution modelling of Cryptocephalusbarii (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae): is this alpine endemic species close to extinction?
ABSTRACT: The alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the Quaternary period contributed in shaping the current species distribution. Cold-adapted organisms experienced range expansion and contraction in response to the temperature decrease and increase, respectively. In this study, a fragment of the mitochondrial marker COI was used to investigate the phylogeography of Cryptocephalusbarii, a cold-adapted alpine leaf beetle species endemic of Orobie Alps, northern Italy. The relationships among populations, their divergence time, and the most probable migration model were estimated and are discussed in light of the Pleistocene climate oscillations. Through a species distribution modelling analysis, the current habitat suitability was assessed and the distribution in a future global warming scenario predicted. The main divergence events that led to the actual population structure took place from ~750,000 to ~150,000 years ago, almost following the pattern of the climate oscillations that led to the increase of the connections between the populations during cold periods and the isolation on massifs in warm periods. The most supported migration model suggests that the species survived to past adverse climatic conditions within refugia inside and at the limit of the actual range. The species distribution modelling analysis showed that C.barii is extremely sensitive to air temperature variations, thus the increase of temperature caused by global warming will reduce the suitable areas within the species range, leading to its possible extinction in the next 50 years. Cryptocephalusbarii is a representative case of how cold adapted and limited distributed species have been and could be affected by climate change, that highlights the implementation of conservation actions.
Project description:Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold-adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold-adapted Micranthes, including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold-adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.
Project description:Numerous experimental simulations with different warming scenarios have been conducted to predict how algae will respond to warming, but their conclusions are sometimes contradictory to each other. This might be due to a failure to consider interspecific interactions. In this study, the dominant diatom species in a seasonal succession were isolated and verified to adapt to different temperature ranges by constant temperature experiment. Both unialgal and mixed cultures were exposed to two fluctuant temperature treatments that simulated the temperature variations from early spring to summer, with one treatment 4 °C higher (warming scenario) than the other. We found that the specific response of diatoms to warming was affected by interspecific interactions. Spring warming had no significant effect on eurythermal species and had a positive effect on the abundance of warm-adapted diatom species, but interspecific interactions reduced this promotional effect. Cold-adapted species had a negative response to spring warming in the presence of other diatom species but had a positive response to early spring warming in the absence of interspecific interactions. In addition, warming resulted in the growth of all diatom species peaking earlier in unialgal cultures, but this effect could be weakened or amplified by interspecies interactions in mixed cultures. Our results suggest that the specific diatom species with different optimal growth temperature ranges responding to warming were expected if there were no interspecific interactions. However, in natural environments, the inevitable and complex interspecific interactions will influence the responses of diatoms to warming. This important factor should not be ignored in the prediction of organism responses to climate warming.
Project description:Ocean warming with climate change is forcing marine organisms to shift their distributions polewards and phenology. In warm tropical seas, evolutionary adaptation by local species to warming will be crucial to avoid predicted desertification and reduction in diversity. However, little is known about the adaptation of phytoplankton in warm seas. Across the ocean, diatomic microalgae are the main primary producers in cold waters; they also contribute to tropical communities where they play a necessary role in the biological pump. Here we show that four species of diatoms isolated from the tropical Red Sea adapted to warming conditions (30 °C) after 200-600 generations by using various thermal strategies. Two of the warming adapted species increased their optimal growth temperature (Topt) and maximum growth rate. The other two diatoms did not increase Topt and growth, but shifted from specialist to generalist increasing their maximum critical thermal limit. Our data show that tropical diatoms can adapt to warming, although trade offs on photosynthetic efficiency, high irradiance stress, and lower growth rate could alter their competitive fitness. Our findings suggest that adaptive responses to warming among phytoplankton could help to arrest the sharp decline in diversity resulting from climate change that is predicted for tropical waters.
Project description:Population growth metrics such as R0 are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species's fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density and dispersal, may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species' range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only in R0 may be misleading.
Project description:Food webs unfold across a mosaic of micro and macro habitats, with each habitat coupled by mobile consumers that behave in response to local environmental conditions. Despite this fundamental characteristic of nature, research on how climate change will affect whole ecosystems has overlooked (i) that climate warming will generally affect habitats differently and (ii) that mobile consumers may respond to this differential change in a manner that may fundamentally alter the energy pathways that sustain ecosystems. This reasoning suggests a powerful, but largely unexplored, avenue for studying the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Here, we use lake ecosystems to show that predictable behavioral adjustments to local temperature differentials govern a fundamental structural shift across 54 food webs. Data show that the trophic pathways from basal resources to a cold-adapted predator shift toward greater reliance on a cold-water refuge habitat, and food chain length increases, as air temperatures rise. Notably, cold-adapted predator behavior may substantially drive this decoupling effect across the climatic range in our study independent of warmer-adapted species responses (for example, changes in near-shore species abundance and predator absence). Such modifications reflect a flexible food web architecture that requires more attention from climate change research. The trophic pathway restructuring documented here is expected to alter biomass accumulation, through the regulation of energy fluxes to predators, and thus potentially threatens ecosystem sustainability in times of rapid environmental change.
Project description:Latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in response to climate change have been reported for numerous animal species, especially those with high dispersal capacities. In plants, the impact of climate change on species distribution or community composition has been documented mainly over long periods (decades) and in specific habitats, often forests. Here, we broaden the results of such long-term, focused studies by examining climate-driven changes in plant community composition over a large area (France) encompassing multiple habitat types and over a short period (2009-2017). To this end, we measured mean community thermal preference, calculated as the community-weighted mean of the Ellenberg temperature indicator value, using data from a standardized participatory monitoring scheme. We report a rapid increase in the mean thermal preference of plant communities at national and regional scales, which we relate to climate change. This reshuffling of plant community composition corresponds to a relative increase in the abundance of warm- versus cold-adapted species. However, support for this trend was weaker when considering only the common species, including common annuals. Our results thus suggest for the first time that the response of plant communities to climate change involves subtle changes affecting all species rare and common, which can nonetheless be detected over short time periods. Whether such changes are sufficient to cope with the current climate warming remains to be ascertained.
Project description:Phenological shifts constitute one of the clearest manifestations of climate warming. Advanced emergence is widely reported in high-latitude ectotherms, but a significant number of species exhibit delayed, or no change in, emergence. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that reconciles these disparate observations and predicts population-level phenological patterns based solely on data on temperature responses of the underlying life history traits. Our model, parameterized with data from insects at different latitudes, shows that peak abundance occurs earlier in the year when warming increases the mean environmental temperature, but is delayed when warming increases the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations. We find that warming does not necessarily lead to a longer activity period in high-latitude species because it elevates summer temperatures above the upper limit for reproduction and development. Our findings both confirm and confound expectations for ectotherm species affected by climate warming: an increase in the mean temperature is more detrimental to low-latitude species adapted to high mean temperatures and low-amplitude seasonal fluctuations; an increase in seasonal fluctuations is more detrimental to high-latitude species adapted to low mean temperatures and high-amplitude fluctuations.
Project description:The 1.5?°C global warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement has raised worldwide attention and inspired numerous studies to assess corresponding climate changes for different regions of the world. But CMIP5 models based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are 'transient simulations' and cannot reflect the response of climate warming stabilized at 1.5?°C. The current work presents an assessment of extreme temperature changes in China with simulations from 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project specially conceived for global warming levels stabilized at 1.5?°C and 2.0?°C. When global warming stabilizes at 1.5?°C/2.0?°C, the areal-mean temperature for whole China increases by about 0.94?°C/1.59?°C (relative to present period, taken from 2006-2015). Notable increase regions are mainly found in Northwest and Northeast-North China, but warm spell duration increases mostly in Southeast China. The effect of the additional 0.5?°C warming is particularly investigated and compared between the transient and stabilized simulations. Changes of mean and extreme temperature are larger in transient simulations than in stabilized simulations. The uncertainty range is also narrower in stabilized simulations. Under stabilized global warming scenario, extreme hot event with return period of 100 years in the present climate becomes event occurring every 4.79 (1.5?°C warming level) and 1.56 years (2.0?°C warming level), extreme cold event with return period of 10 years becomes event occurring every 67 years under 1.5?°C warming and is unlikely to occur under 2.0?°C warming. For geographic distribution, the occurrence probabilities of extreme (hot and cold) events mainly change in the Tibetan Plateau, and the extreme cold events also change in Northeast and Southeast China.
Project description:Mountain plant species shift their elevational ranges in response to climate change. However, to what degree these shifts lag behind current climate change, and to what extent delayed extinctions and colonizations contribute to these shifts, are under debate. Here, we calculate extinction debt and colonization credit of 135 species from the European Alps by comparing species distribution models with 1576 re-surveyed plots. We find extinction debt in 60% and colonization credit in 38% of the species, and at least one of the two in 93%. This suggests that the realized niche of very few of the 135 species fully tracks climate change. As expected, extinction debts occur below and colonization credits occur above the optimum elevation of species. Colonization credits are more frequent in warmth-demanding species from lower elevations with lower dispersal capability, and extinction debts are more frequent in cold-adapted species from the highest elevations. Local extinctions hence appear to be already pending for those species which have the least opportunity to escape climate warming.
Project description:Changes in climate extremes pose far-reaching consequences to ecological processes and hydrologic cycles in alpine ecosystems of the arid mountain regions. Therefore, regional assessments in various climates and mountain regions are needed for understanding the uncertainties of the change trends for extreme climate events. The objective of this study was to assess the spatial distribution and temporal trends of extreme precipitation and temperature events responses to global warming on the arid mountain regions of China. Results found that temperature extremes exhibited a significant warming trend, consistent with global warming. Warming trend in autumn and winter were greater than in spring and summer. Besides, precipitation extremes also exhibited statistically increase trend, such as number of days with heavy precipitation and rain day precipitation, etc. The distribution of the number of rainy days was showed a significant increasing trend in many sites, indicating that the increase of rain day precipitation mainly contributed by the increase of single precipitation event duration and moderate-rain days. The greater increasing trend of extreme climate events mainly existed in higher altitudes. This results lend an evidence to earlier predictions that the climate in northwestern China is changing from cold-dry to warm-wet.