Multiplex communities and the emergence of international conflict.
ABSTRACT: Advances in community detection reveal new insights into multiplex and multilayer networks. Less work, however, investigates the relationship between these communities and outcomes in social systems. We leverage these advances to shed light on the relationship between the cooperative mesostructure of the international system and the onset of interstate conflict. We detect communities based upon weaker signals of affinity expressed in United Nations votes and speeches, as well as stronger signals observed across multiple layers of bilateral cooperation. Communities of diplomatic affinity display an expected negative relationship with conflict onset. Ties in communities based upon observed cooperation, however, display no effect under a standard model specification and a positive relationship with conflict under an alternative specification. These results align with some extant hypotheses but also point to a paucity in our understanding of the relationship between community structure and behavioral outcomes in networks.
Project description:Network science has spurred a reexamination of relational phenomena in political science, including the study of international conflict. We introduce a new direction to the study of conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international system along three key dimensions is a powerful predictor of the propensity for violent interstate conflict. Even after controlling for well-established conflict indicators, our new measure contributes more to model fit for interstate conflict than all of the previously established measures combined. Moreover, joint democracy plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging perhaps the major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, the temporal variability of our measure with conflict is consistent with a causal relationship. Our results have real-world policy implications as changes in our fractionalization measure substantially aid the prediction of conflict up to 10 years into the future, allowing it to serve as an early warning sign of international instability.
Project description:The liberal international economic order has been facing high-profile legitimacy challenges in recent years. This article puts these challenges in historical context through a systematic analysis of rhetorical challenges towards both the order per se and specific global economic institutions. Drawing on Albert Hirschman’s classic typology of exit, voice and loyalty, we coded leaders’ speeches in the General Debate at the UN General Assembly between 1970 and 2018 as articulating intentions to abandon elements of the order, challenges or calls for reform, unequivocal support, or factual mentions of cooperation. Surprisingly, we find that explicit criticisms towards the liberal order are at an all-time low and that exit threats remain rare. An analysis of the historical evolution of criticisms to global economic institutions reveals a move away from the Cold War insider-outsider conflict towards insider contestation. For example, we find that as countries’ economies become more open, their leaders expressed more support for global economic institutions during the Cold War but less support since. Finally, we demonstrate consistency between the public policy positions leaders announce in UNGA General Debate speeches and their government positions on consequential reform debates on debt relief. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11558-020-09404-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Project description:In this paper, we aim to examine the relationship between traffic flow and potential conflict risks by using crash surrogate metrics. It has been widely recognized that one traffic flow corresponds to two distinct traffic states with different speeds and densities. In view of this, instead of simply aggregating traffic conditions with the same traffic volume, we represent potential conflict risks at a traffic flow fundamental diagram. Two crash surrogate metrics, namely, Aggregated Crash Index and Time to Collision, are used in this study to represent the potential conflict risks with respect to different traffic conditions. Furthermore, Beijing North Ring III and Next Generation SIMulation Interstate 80 datasets are utilized to carry out case studies. By using the proposed procedure, both datasets generate similar trends, which demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and the transferability of our conclusions.
Project description:Since 1945, there have been relatively few large interstate wars, especially compared to the preceding 30 years, which included both World Wars. This pattern, sometimes called the long peace, is highly controversial. Does it represent an enduring trend caused by a genuine change in the underlying conflict-generating processes? Or is it consistent with a highly variable but otherwise stable system of conflict? Using the empirical distributions of interstate war sizes and onset times from 1823 to 2003, we parameterize stationary models of conflict generation that can distinguish trends from statistical fluctuations in the statistics of war. These models indicate that both the long peace and the period of great violence that preceded it are not statistically uncommon patterns in realistic but stationary conflict time series. This fact does not detract from the importance of the long peace or the proposed mechanisms that explain it. However, the models indicate that the postwar pattern of peace would need to endure at least another 100 to 140 years to become a statistically significant trend. This fact places an implicit upper bound on the magnitude of any change in the true likelihood of a large war after the end of the Second World War. The historical patterns of war thus seem to imply that the long peace may be substantially more fragile than proponents believe, despite recent efforts to identify mechanisms that reduce the likelihood of interstate wars.
Project description:States form defensive military alliances to enhance their security in the face of potential or realized interstate conflict. The network of these international alliances is increasingly interconnected, now linking most of the states in a complex web of ties. These alliances can be used both as a tool for securing cooperation and to foster peace between direct partners. However, do indirect connections-such as the ally of an ally or even further out in the alliance network-result in lower probabilities of conflict? We investigate the extent to which military alliances produce peace between states that are not directly allied. We find that the peacemaking horizon of indirect alliances extends through the network up to three degrees of separation. Within this horizon of influence, a lack of decay in the effect of degrees of distance indicates that alliances do not diminish with respect to their ability to affect peace regardless of whether or not the states in question are directly allied. Beyond the three-degree horizon of influence, we observe a sharp decline in the effect of indirect alliances on bilateral peace. Further investigation reveals that the community structure of the alliance network plays a role in establishing this horizon, but the effects of indirect alliances are not spurious to the community structure.
Project description:<h4>Purpose</h4>Marital conflict is integral to children's psychosocial well-being. Extant research has shown that the effects of marital conflict on children are likely to vary by gender, indicating that gender plays a significant and complex role in the relationship between marital conflict and child adjustment. Focusing on gender, this study investigates the link between specific marital conflict tactics and children's mental health symptoms in families in which the parents live together.<h4>Methods</h4>This study gathered data from 799 children and their parents in Japan by means of a questionnaire focusing on marital conflict and child behavioral problems. Marital conflict (verbal aggression, physical aggression, stonewalling, avoidance-capitulation, child involvement, and cooperation) was assessed using a Conflict and Problem-Solving Scale. Children's behavioral problems (externalizing and internalizing symptoms) were assessed using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire.<h4>Results</h4>The findings highlight the significant impact of specific interparental conflict on children's behavioral problems, demonstrating that there are differences according to the child's gender. More specifically, multivariate analyses targeting boys revealed that cooperation was significantly inversely associated with externalizing problems and internalizing problems, while avoidance-capitulation and verbal aggression were significantly positively associated with externalizing problems. In contrast, multivariate analyses targeting girls revealed that cooperation was significantly inversely associated with externalizing problems and internalizing problems, while avoidance-capitulation and stonewalling were significantly positively associated with internalizing problems.<h4>Conclusion</h4>This study reveals that interparental conflict is associated with children's behavioral problems. Constructive marital conflict was significantly inversely associated with externalizing and internalizing problems in both boys and girls. Meanwhile, destructive marital conflict (i.e., avoidance-capitulation and verbal aggression) was significantly positively associated with externalizing problems in boys and significantly positively associated with internalizing problems in girls. These findings contribute to the substantial literature demonstrating the relationship between family processes and the development of disruptive behavior disorders in children.
Project description:The family unit and kinship structures form the basis of social relationships in indigenous societies. Families constitute a cultural group, a so-called clan, within which marriage is prohibited by the incest taboo. The clan attribution governs the mating preference and descent relationships by certain rules. Such rules form various kinship structures, including generalized exchange, an indirect exchange of brides among more than two clans, and restricted exchange, a direct exchange of brides with the flow of children to different clans. These structures are distributed in different areas and show different cultural consequences. However, it is still unknown how they emerge or what conditions determine different structures. Here, we build a model of communities consisting of lineages and family groups and introduce social cooperation among kin and mates and conflict over mating. Each lineage has parameters characterizing the trait and mate preference, which determines the possibility of marriage and the degree of cooperation and conflict among lineages. Lineages can cooperate with those having similar traits to their own or mates', whereas lineages with similar preferences compete for brides. In addition, we introduce community-level selection by eliminating communities with smaller fitness and follow the so-called hierarchical Moran process. We numerically demonstrate that lineages are clustered in the space of traits and preferences, resulting in the emergence of clans with the incest taboo. Generalized exchange emerges when cooperation is strongly needed, whereas restricted exchange emerges when the mating conflict is strict. This may explain the geographical distribution of kinship structures in indigenous societies.
Project description:There is some evidence that liberal politicians use more complex language than conservative politicians. This evidence, however, is based on a specific set of speeches of US members of Congress and UK members of Parliament. This raises the question whether the relationship between ideology and linguistic complexity is a more general phenomenon or specific to this small group of politicians. To address this question, this paper analyzes 381,609 speeches given by politicians from five parliaments, by twelve European prime ministers, as well as speeches from party congresses over time and across countries. Our results replicate and generalize earlier findings: speakers from culturally liberal parties use more complex language than speakers from culturally conservative parties. Economic left-right differences, on the other hand, are not systematically linked to linguistic complexity.
Project description:Theoreticians have long suggested that the amount of intergroup conflict in which a group is involved could influence the level of cooperation or affiliation displayed by its members. Despite the prevalence of intergroup conflicts in many social animal species, however, few empirical studies have investigated this potential link. Here, I show that intragroup allopreening rates are highest in green woodhoopoe (Phoeniculus purpureus) groups that have the greatest involvement in intergroup conflict. One reason for this relationship is a post-conflict increase in allopreening, and I demonstrate for the first time that both conflict duration and outcome influence subsequent allopreening rates: group members allopreened more following long conflicts and those they lost compared with short conflicts and those they won, perhaps because the former are more stressful. The increase in affiliative behaviour was the result of more allopreening of subordinate helpers by the dominant breeding pair, which may be because the breeders are trying to encourage helpers to participate in future conflicts; relative group size influences conflict outcome and helpers contribute more to conflicts than do the breeding pair. These results emphasize that our understanding of cooperation and group dynamics can be enhanced by investigations of how intergroup interactions affect intragroup processes.
Project description:Transitions to new levels of biological complexity often require cooperation among component individuals, but individual selection among those components may favor a selfishness that thwarts the evolution of cooperation. Biological systems with elements of cooperation and conflict are especially challenging to understand because the very direction of evolution is indeterminate and cannot be predicted without knowing which types of selfish mutations and interactions can arise. Here, we investigated the evolution of two bacteriophages (f1 and IKe) experimentally forced to obey a life cycle with elements of cooperation and conflict, whose outcome could have ranged from extinction of the population (due to selection of selfish elements) to extreme cooperation. Our results show the de novo evolution of a conflict mediation system that facilitates cooperation. Specifically, the two phages evolved to copackage their genomes into one protein coat, ensuring cotransmission with each other and virtually eliminating conflict. Thereafter, IKe evolved such extreme genome reduction that it lost the ability to make its own virions independent of f1. Our results parallel a variety of conflict mediation mechanisms existing in nature: evolution of reduced genomes in symbionts, cotransmission of partners, and obligate coexistence between cooperating species.