Global characteristics of the rabies biologics market in 2017.
ABSTRACT: In 2017, the World Health Organization, the World Organisation for Animal Health, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Global Alliance for Rabies control developed a strategic plan to end human rabies deaths by 2030. A survey for manufacturing capacity and product characteristics of rabies biologics was conducted to inform this process. Twenty-three of 42 manufacturers, responded, giving a market capacity for 2017 of 90 million vials for human vaccines, 2.5 million vials for rabies immunoglobulins, 2 million vials for monoclonal antibodies and 181 million vials for dog vaccines. Production capacity could be increased by many manufacturers but was limited by country demand, lack of long-term planning and restricted market expansion. Should countries implement national rabies elimination programmes where biologic needs are forecasted and production lead times respected, manufacturers can meet future supply needs towards global elimination of human dog-mediated rabies deaths.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Tens of thousands of people die from dog-mediated rabies annually. Deaths can be prevented through post-exposure prophylaxis for people who have been bitten, and the disease eliminated through dog vaccination. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use saves many lives, but availability remains poor in many rabies-endemic countries due to high costs, poor access, and supply. METHODS:We developed epidemiological and economic models to investigate the effect of an investment in post-exposure prophylaxis by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We modelled post-exposure prophylaxis use according to the status quo, with improved access using WHO-recommended intradermal vaccination, with and without rabies immunoglobulin, and with and without dog vaccination. We took the health provider perspective, including only direct costs. FINDINGS:We predict more than 1 million deaths will occur in the 67 rabies-endemic countries considered from 2020 to 2035, under the status quo. Current post-exposure prophylaxis use prevents approximately 56?000 deaths annually. Expanded access to, and free provision of, post-exposure prophylaxis would prevent an additional 489?000 deaths between 2020 and 2035. Under this switch to efficient intradermal post-exposure prophylaxis regimens, total projected vaccine needs remain similar (about 73 million vials) yet 17·4 million more people are vaccinated, making this an extremely cost-effective method, with costs of US$635 per death averted and $33 per disability-adjusted life-years averted. Scaling up dog vaccination programmes could eliminate dog-mediated rabies over this time period; improved post-exposure prophylaxis access remains cost-effective under this scenario, especially in combination with patient risk assessments to reduce unnecessary post-exposure prophylaxis use. INTERPRETATION:Investing in post-exposure vaccines would be an extremely cost-effective intervention that could substantially reduce disease burden and catalyse dog vaccination efforts to eliminate dog-mediated rabies. FUNDING:World Health Organization.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Rabies imposes a substantial burden to about half of the world population. The World Health Organization (WHO), World Organization for Animal Health, and the Food and Agriculture Organization have set the goal of eliminating dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030. This could be achieved largely by massive administration of post-exposure prophylaxis-in perpetuity-, through elimination of dog rabies, or combining both. Here, we focused on the resources needed for the elimination of dog rabies virus by 2030. MATERIALS AND METHODS:Drawing from multiple datasets, including national dog vaccination campaigns, rabies literature, and expert opinion, we developed a model considering country-specific current dog vaccination capacity to estimate the years and resources required to achieve dog rabies elimination by 2030. Resources were determined based on four factors: (a) country development status, (b) dog vaccination costs, (c) dog rabies vaccine availability, and (d) existing animal health workers. Our calculations were based on the WHO's estimate that vaccinating 70% of the dog population for seven consecutive years would eliminate rabies. FINDINGS:If dog rabies vaccine production remains at 2015 levels, we estimate that there will be a cumulative shortage of about 7.5 billion doses to meet expected demand to achieve dog rabies elimination. We estimated a present cost of $6,300 million to eliminate dog rabies in all endemic countries, equivalent to a $3,900 million gap compared to current spending. To eliminate dog rabies, the vaccination workforce may suffice if all public health veterinarians in endemic countries were to dedicate 3?months each year to dog rabies vaccination. We discuss implications of potential technology improvements, including population management, vaccine price reduction, and increases in dog-vaccinating capacities. CONCLUSION:Our results highlight the resources needed to achieve elimination of dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030. As exemplified by multiple successful disease elimination efforts, one size does not fit all. We suggest pragmatic and feasible options toward global dog rabies elimination by 2030, while identifying several benefits and drawbacks of specific approaches. We hope that these results help stimulate and inform a necessary discussion on global and regional strategic planning, resource mobilization, and continuous execution of rabies virus elimination.
Project description:More than 100 years of research has now been conducted into the prevention, control and elimination of rabies with safe and highly efficacious vaccines developed for use in human and animal populations. Domestic dogs are a major reservoir for rabies, and although considerable advances have been made towards the elimination and control of canine rabies in many parts of the world, the disease continues to kill tens of thousands of people every year in Africa and Asia. Policy efforts are now being directed towards a global target of zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 and the global elimination of canine rabies. Here we demonstrate how research provides a cause for optimism as to the feasibility of these goals through strategies based around mass dog vaccination. We summarize some of the pragmatic insights generated from rabies epidemiology and dog ecology research that can improve the design of dog vaccination strategies in low- and middle-income countries and which should encourage implementation without further delay. We also highlight the need for realism in reaching the feasible, although technically more difficult and longer-term goal of global elimination of canine rabies. Finally, we discuss how research on rabies has broader relevance to the control and elimination of a suite of diseases of current concern to human and animal health, providing an exemplar of the value of a 'One Health' approach.
Project description:The major part of the global burden of dog-mediated rabies falls on Africa and Asia, where still an estimated 60,000 people die of the disease annually. Like in many African countries, dog-mediated rabies is a major public health concern in Namibia, costing the country an estimated 242 human deaths during the past two decades, in particular in the Northern Communal Areas (NCAs). Consequently, under the "One Health" concept, the Namibian government adopted a National Rabies Control Strategy in 2015, which strives to contribute to the global goal of ending dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030. A key component of this strategy was the implementation a dog rabies elimination program in the NCAs in 2016, being designed as a stepwise regional rollout strategy by building on experience gained in a pilot project area. The area of implementation covers approximately 263,376 km2 and 64 constituencies, with around 1.2 million inhabitants and estimated 93,000 dogs.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Canine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>Using data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R(0), of rabies in dogs, to be ~1 · 2, almost identical to that obtained in ten-fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas (<0.5% of the dog population) jeopardizing success. Parameterizing the model with data from the 2010 and 2011 vaccination campaigns, we show that a comprehensive high coverage campaign in 2012 would likely result in elimination, saving ~550 human lives and ~$15 million in prophylaxis costs over the next ten years.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>The elimination of rabies from Bali will not be achieved through achievable reductions in dog density. To ensure elimination, concerted high coverage, repeated, mass dog vaccination campaigns are necessary and the cooperation of all regions of the island is critical. Momentum is building towards development of a strategy for the global elimination of canine rabies, and this study offers valuable new insights about the dynamics and control of this disease, with immediate practical relevance.
Project description:Although rabies incidence has fallen sharply over the past decades in Europe, the disease is still present in Eastern Europe. Oral rabies immunization of wild animal rabies has been shown to be the most effective method for the control and elimination of rabies. All rabies vaccines used in Europe are modified live virus vaccines based on the Street Alabama Dufferin (SAD) strain isolated from a naturally-infected dog in 1935. Because of the potential safety risk of a live virus which could revert to virulence, the genetic composition of three commercial attenuated live rabies vaccines was investigated in two independent laboratories using next genome sequencing. This study is the first one reporting on the diversity of variants in oral rabies vaccines as well as the presence of a mix of at least two different variants in all tested batches. The results demonstrate the need for vaccine producers to use new robust methodologies in the context of their routine vaccine quality controls prior to market release.
Project description:Dog rabies annually causes 24,000-70,000 deaths globally. We built a spreadsheet tool, RabiesEcon, to aid public health officials to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dog rabies vaccination programs in East Africa.RabiesEcon uses a mathematical model of dog-dog and dog-human rabies transmission to estimate dog rabies cases averted, the cost per human rabies death averted and cost per year of life gained (YLG) due to dog vaccination programs (US 2015 dollars). We used an East African human population of 1 million (approximately 2/3 living in urban setting, 1/3 rural). We considered, using data from the literature, three vaccination options; no vaccination, annual vaccination of 50% of dogs and 20% of dogs vaccinated semi-annually. We assessed 2 transmission scenarios: low (1.2 dogs infected per infectious dog) and high (1.7 dogs infected). We also examined the impact of annually vaccinating 70% of all dogs (World Health Organization recommendation for dog rabies elimination).Without dog vaccination, over 10 years there would a total of be approximately 44,000-65,000 rabid dogs and 2,100-2,900 human deaths. Annually vaccinating 50% of dogs results in 10-year reductions of 97% and 75% in rabid dogs (low and high transmissions scenarios, respectively), approximately 2,000-1,600 human deaths averted, and an undiscounted cost-effectiveness of $451-$385 per life saved. Semi-annual vaccination of 20% of dogs results in in 10-year reductions of 94% and 78% in rabid dogs, and approximately 2,000-1,900 human deaths averted, and cost $404-$305 per life saved. In the low transmission scenario, vaccinating either 50% or 70% of dogs eliminated dog rabies. Results were most sensitive to dog birth rate and the initial rate of dog-to-dog transmission (Ro).Dog rabies vaccination programs can control, and potentially eliminate, dog rabies. The frequency and coverage of vaccination programs, along with the level of dog rabies transmission, can affect the cost-effectiveness of such programs. RabiesEcon can aid both the planning and assessment of dog rabies vaccination programs.
Project description:Oral vaccines aid immunization of hard to reach animal populations but often contain live-attenuated viruses that pose risks of reversion to virulence or residual pathogenicity. Human risk assessment is crucial prior to vaccine field distribution but there is currently no standardized approach. We mapped exposure pathways by which distribution of oral vaccines may result in inoculation into people and applied a Markov chain to estimate the number of severe adverse events. We simulated three oral rabies vaccination (ORV) campaigns: (1) first generation ORV (SAD-B19) in foxes, (2) SAD-B19 in dogs, and (3) third generation ORV (SPBN GASGAS) in dogs. The risk of SAD-B19-associated human deaths was predicted to be low (0.18 per 10 million baits, 95% CI: 0.08, 0.36) when distributed to foxes, but, consistent with international concern, 19 times greater (3.35 per 10 million baits, 95% CI: 2.83, 3.98) when distributed to dogs. We simulated no deaths from SPBN GAS-GAS. Human deaths during dog campaigns were particularly sensitive to dog bite rate, and during wildlife campaigns to animal consumption rate and human contact rate with unconsumed baits. This model highlights the safety of third generation rabies vaccines and serves as a platform for standardized approaches to inform risk assessments.
Project description:The World Health Organization, the World Organization for Animal Health, and the Food and Agriculture Organization have resolved to eliminate human rabies deaths due to dog bites by 2030, and the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi) has added human rabies vaccines to their investments for 2021-2025. Implementing these goals cost-effectively and sustainably requires understanding the complex connections between dog rabies vaccination and human risk and response. The objective of this paper is to estimate how dog rabies vaccinations affect human rabies deaths, mediated through dog rabies cases, dog bite reporting, and post-exposure human rabies vaccination. To approach this objective, we apply multivariate regression analysis over five rabies-related outcomes: (a) dog vaccinations, (b) dog rabies cases, (c) reported human exposures, (d) human post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) use, and (e) human rabies cases. Analysis uses aggregate annual data over 1995-2005 for seven Latin American countries that experienced dramatic declines in canine and human rabies. Among other results, we estimate the following. (i) A 10% increase in dog vaccinations decreases dog rabies cases by 2.3%. (ii) Reported exposures decline as concurrent dog rabies cases decline, but these declines are more than offset by increases in reported exposures per dog rabies case, which may result from higher rabies awareness due to anti-rabies campaigns. (iii) A 10% increase in PEP use decreases human deaths by 7%, but a 10% increase in dog vaccination induces a 2.8% decrease in PEP use. The net effect is that a 10% increase in dog vaccination reduces human deaths by 12.4% overall, although marginal effectiveness declines as dog rabies incidence declines. (iv) Increases in income and public health expenditures increase PEP demand. The findings highlight the importance of mass dog vaccination, heightened awareness, treatment access, and clinical algorithms to reduce both false negatives leading to death and false positives leading to costly unnecessary PEP prescriptions.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Canine transmitted rabies kills an estimated 59,000 people annually, despite proven methods for elimination through mass dog vaccination. Challenges in directing and monitoring numerous remote vaccination teams across large geographic areas remain a significant barrier to the up-scaling of focal vaccination programmes to sub-national and national level. Smartphone technology (mHealth) is increasingly being used to enhance the coordination and efficiency of public health initiatives in developing countries, however examples of successful scaling beyond pilot implementation are rare. This study describes a smartphone app and website platform, "Mission Rabies App", used to co-ordinate rabies control activities at project sites in four continents to vaccinate over one million dogs. METHODS:Mission Rabies App made it possible to not only gather relevant campaign data from the field, but also to direct vaccination teams systematically in near real-time. The display of user-allocated boundaries on Google maps within data collection forms enabled a project manager to define each team's region of work, assess their output and assign subsequent areas to progressively vaccinate across a geographic area. This ability to monitor work and react to a rapidly changing situation has the potential to improve efficiency and coverage achieved, compared to regular project management structures, as well as enhancing capacity for data review and analysis from remote areas. The ability to plot the location of every vaccine administered facilitated engagement with stakeholders through transparent reporting, and has the potential to motivate politicians to support such activities. RESULTS:Since the system launched in September 2014, over 1.5 million data entries have been made to record dog vaccinations, rabies education classes and field surveys in 16 countries. Use of the system has increased year-on-year with adoption for mass dog vaccination campaigns at the India state level in Goa and national level in Haiti. CONCLUSIONS:Innovative approaches to rapidly scale mass dog vaccination programmes in a sustained and systematic fashion are urgently needed to achieve the WHO, OIE and FAO goal to eliminate canine-transmitted human deaths by 2030. The Mission Rabies App is an mHealth innovation which greatly reduces the logistical and managerial barriers to implementing large scale rabies control activities. Free access to the platform aims to support pilot campaigns to better structure and report on proof-of-concept initiatives, clearly presenting outcomes and opportunities for expansion. The functionalities of the Mission Rabies App may also be beneficial to other infectious disease interventions.