Development and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination in England.
ABSTRACT: Importance:Timely identification of patients likely to miss seasonal influenza vaccination (SIV) could help health care practitioners tailor services and gain efficiency. Objective:To develop and validate a predictive model of SIV uptake among at-risk adults. Design, Setting, and Participants:This prognostic study constructed a prediction model for vaccine uptake by adults at increased risk of influenza-associated complications. Drawing from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink database's records of primary care data of 324?284 adults routinely collected at general practices across England from January 2011 to December 2016, logistic regression models were trained on data from patients registered from January 2012 to December 2013 and validated with out-of-sample data from patients registered from January 2015 to December 2016. Data were extracted from the database December 2018 and analyzed between September 2019 and December 2019. Exposures:Covariates included sex, age, race/ethnicity, smoking status, socioeconomic status, previous pneumococcal vaccination, prior season SIV uptake, and clinical risk conditions. Main Outcomes and Measures:The main outcome was patient-level SIV uptake. Model performance was measured via misclassification rate, Brier score, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. Results:The training data sets consisted of 324?284 (aged 18 to 64 years) and 186?426 (aged 65 years or older) patients. The mean (SD) age in the training data among patients aged 18 to 64 years was 45 (13) years; 161?487 (49.8%) were women, and 102?133 (31.5%) were categorized as white. Among patients aged 65 years or older, the mean (SD) age was 77 (8) years; 96?169 (51.6%) were women, and 64?996 (34.9%) were categorized as white. The validation data sets consisted of 35?210 patients aged 18 to 64 years and 25?497 aged 65 years or older. The mean (SD) age in the validation data set among patients aged 18 to 64 years was 42 (14) years; 17 296 (49.1%) were women, and 13 346 (37.9%) were categorized as white. Among patients aged 65 years or older, the mean (SD) age was 73 (8) years; 13 135 (51.5%) were women, and 9641 (37.8) were categorized as white. Among patients aged 18 to 64 years, SIV uptake was 35.9% (95% CI, 35.7%-36.0%) and 32.6% (95% CI, 32.1%-33.1%) for the training and validation data sets, respectively. Among patients aged 65 years or older, SIV uptake was 83.1% (95% CI, 82.9%-83.2%) and 76.1% (95% CI, 75.5%-76.6%) for the training and validation data sets, respectively. Prior season SIV uptake and pneumococcal vaccination status were the best predictors of SIV uptake. Predicted SIV uptake probabilities for patients aged 18 to 64 years were reliable, but biased toward underpredicting, whereas, among patients aged 65 years or older, they were variable and biased toward overpredicting. Briefly, in out-of-sample validation among patients aged 18 to 64 years, misclassification rates were 0.163 to 0.164, Brier scores were 0.124 to 0.125, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values ranged from 0.876 to 0.877, sensitivity ranged from 0.705 to 0.720, and specificity ranged from 0.896 to 0.902. In patients aged 65 years or older, misclassification rates were 0.120 to 0.125, Brier scores were 0.0953 to 0.0959, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.877, sensitivity ranged from 0.919 to 0.936, and specificity ranged from 0.680 to 0.753. Conclusions and Relevance:This study suggests that data obtained from primary care records could accurately predict SIV uptake among at-risk adults. Further research is needed to assess the feasibility and efficacy of implementing this model in clinical settings.
Project description:We sought to gain insights into the determinants of seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) uptake by conducting an age-stratified analysis (18-64 and 65+) of factors associated with SIV uptake among at-risk adults registered to English practices. Records for at-risk English adults between 2011 and 2016 were identified using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink database. SIV uptake was assessed annually. The associations of patient, practice, and seasonal characteristics with SIV uptake were assessed via cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, using mixed-effects and general estimating equation logistic regression models. Overall SIV uptake was 35.3% and 74.0% for adults 18-64 and 65+, respectively. Relative to white patients, black patients were least likely to be vaccinated (OR18-64: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.85); OR65+: 0.59 (95% CI: 0.56, 0.62)), while Asian patients among 18-64 year olds were most likely to be vaccinated (OR18-64: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.13)). Females were more likely than males to be vaccinated among 18-64 year olds (OR18-64: 1.19 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.20)). Greater socioeconomic deprivation was associated with decreased odds of uptake among older patients (OR65+: 0.74 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.77)). For each additional at-risk condition, odds of uptake increased (OR18-64: 2.33 (95% CI: 2.31, 2.36); OR65+: 1.39 (95% CI: 1.38, 1.39)). Odds of uptake were highest among younger patients with diabetes (OR18-64: 4.25 (95% CI: 4.18, 4.32)) and older patients with chronic respiratory disease (OR65+: 1.60 (95% CI: 1.58, 1.63)), whereas they were lowest among morbidly obese patients of all ages (OR18-64: 0.68 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.70); OR65+: 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94, 0.99)). Prior influenza season severity and vaccine effectiveness were marginally predictive of uptake. Our age-stratified analysis uncovered SIV uptake disparities by ethnicity, sex, age, socioeconomic deprivation, and co-morbidities, warranting further attention by GPs and policymakers alike.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Studies on the reliability of the MTS and its predictive power for hospitalisation and mortality in the older population have demonstrated mixed results. The objective is to evaluate the performance of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) in older patients (?65?years) by assessing the predictive ability of the MTS for emergency department resource utilisation, emergency department length of stay (ED-LOS), hospitalisation, and in-hospital mortality rate. The secondary goal was to evaluate the performance of the MTS in older surgical versus medical patients. METHODS:A retrospective cohort study was conducted of all emergency department visits by patients ?65?years between 01 and 09-2011 and 31-08-2012. Performance of the MTS was assessed by comparing the association of the MTS with emergency department resource utilisation, ED-LOS, hospital admission, and in-hospital mortality in older patients and the reference group (18-64?years), and by estimating the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves. RESULTS:Data on 7108 emergency department visits by older patients and 13,767 emergency department visits by patients aged 18-64?years were included. In both patient groups, a higher emergency department resource utilisation was associated with a higher MTS urgency. The AUC for the MTS and hospitalisation was 0.74 (95%CI 0.73-0.75) in older patients and 0.76 (95%CI 0.76-0.77) in patients aged 18-64?years. Comparison of the predictive ability of the MTS for in-hospital mortality in older patients with patients aged 18-64?years revealed an AUC of 0.71 (95%CI 0.68-0.74) versus 0.79 (95%CI 0.72-0.85). The majority of older patients (54.8%) were evaluated by a medical specialty and 45.2% by a surgical specialty. The predictive ability of the MTS for hospitalisation and in-hospital mortality was higher in older surgical patients than in medical patients (AUC 0.74, 95%CI 0.72-0.76 and 0.74, 95%CI 0.68-0.81 versus 0.69, 95%CI 0.67-0.71 and 0.66, 95%CI 0.62-0.69). CONCLUSION:The performance of the MTS appeared inferior in older patients than younger patients, illustrated by a worse predictive ability of the MTS for in-hospital mortality in older patients. The MTS demonstrated a better performance in older surgical patients than older medical patients regarding hospitalisation and in-hospital mortality.
Project description:<h4>Objectives</h4>To examine temporal trend in uptake of seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) in the UK and explore disease and demographic factors associated with vaccination.<h4>Methods</h4>From the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 32 751 people with auto-immune rheumatic diseases prescribed DMARDs between 2006 and 2016 were identified. The proportion vaccinated between 1 September of one year and 31 March of the next year was calculated and stratified by age, other indications for vaccination, auto-immune rheumatic diseases type and number of DMARDs prescribed. Stata and Joinpoint regression programs were used.<h4>Results</h4>SIV uptake was high in those aged ?65 years (82.3 and 80.7% in 2006-07 and 2015-16, respectively). It was significantly lower in other age groups, but improved over time with 51.9 and 61.9% in the 45-64 year age group, and 32.3 and 50.1% in the <45 year age group being vaccinated in 2006-07 and 2015-16, respectively. While 64.9% of the vaccinations in those ?65 years old occurred by 3 November, in time to mount a protective immune response before the influenza activity becomes substantial in the UK, only 38.9% in the 45-64 year and 26.2% in the <45 year age group without any other reason for vaccination received SIV by this date. Women, those with additional indications for vaccination, on multiple DMARDs and with SLE were more likely to be vaccinated.<h4>Conclusion</h4>SIV uptake is low in the under 65s, and the majority of them are not vaccinated in time. Additional effort is required to promote timely uptake of SIV in this population.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Treatments for young patients with gastric cancer (GC) remain poorly defined, and their effects on survival are uncertain. We aimed to investigate the receipt of chemotherapy by age category (18-49, 50-64, and 65-85 years) and explore whether age differences in chemotherapy matched survival gains in patients with GC. METHODS:Patients who were histologically diagnosed with GC were included from a Chinese multi-institutional database and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. There were 5,122 and 31,363 patients aged 18-85 years treated between 2000 and 2014, respectively. Overall survival and stage-specific likelihood of receiving chemotherapy were evaluated. RESULTS:Of the 5,122 and 31,363 patients in China and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result data sets, 3,489 (68.1%) and 18,115 (57.8%) were men, respectively. Younger (18-49 years) and middle-aged (50-64 years) patients were more likely to receive chemotherapy compared with older patients (65-85 years) (64.9%, 56.7%, and 45.4% in the 3 groups from the China data set). Among patients treated with surgery alone, a significantly better prognosis was found in younger and middle-aged patients than their older counterparts; however, no significant differences were found in overall survival among age subgroups in patients who received both surgery and chemotherapy, especially in the China data set. The survival benefit from chemotherapy was superior among older patients (all P < 0.0001) compared with that among younger and middle-aged patients in stage II and III disease. DISCUSSION:Potential overuse of chemotherapy was found in younger and middle-aged patients with GC, but the addition of chemotherapy did not bring about matched survival improvement, especially in the China data set.
Project description:Background:Previous studies suggest that duration of antibiotic therapy for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) often exceeds national recommendations and might represent an important opportunity to improve antibiotic stewardship nationally. Our objective was to determine the average length of antibiotic therapy (LOT) for patients treated for uncomplicated CAP in US hospitals and the proportion of patients with excessive durations. Methods:Records of retrospective cohorts of patients aged 18-64 years with private insurance and aged ?65 years with Medicare hospitalized for CAP in 2012-2013 were used. Inpatient LOT was estimated as a function of length of stay. Outpatient LOT was based on prescriptions filled post discharge based on data from outpatient pharmacy files. Excessive duration was defined as outpatient LOT >3 days. Results:Inclusion criteria were met for 22128 patients aged 18-64 years across 2100 hospitals and 130746 patients aged ?65 years across 3227 hospitals. Median total LOT was 9.5 days. LOT exceeded recommended duration for 74% of patients aged 18-64 years and 71% of patients aged ?65 years. Patients aged 18-64 years had a median (quartile 1-quartile 3) 6 (3-7) days outpatient LOT and those aged ?65 years had 5 (3-7) days. Conclusions:In this nationwide sample of patients hospitalized for CAP, median total LOT was just under 10 days, with more than 70% of patients having likely excessive treatment duration. Better adherence to recommended CAP therapy duration by improving prescribing at hospital discharge may be an important target for antibiotic stewardship programs.
Project description:Annual seasonal influenza vaccination (SIV) is recommended for people with diabetes, but vaccine coverage remains low. We estimated the probabilities of stopping or starting SIV, their correlates, and the expected time spent in the vaccinated state over 10 seasons for different patient profiles. We set up a retrospective cohort study of patients with diabetes in 2006 (n = 16,026), identified in a representative sample of beneficiaries of the French National Health Insurance Fund. We followed them up over 10 seasons (2005/06-2015/16). We used a Markov model to estimate transition probabilities and a proportional hazards model to study covariates. Between two consecutive seasons, the probabilities of starting (0.17) or stopping (0.09) SIV were lower than those of remaining vaccinated (0.91) or unvaccinated (0.83). Men, older patients, those with type 1 diabetes, treated diabetes or more comorbidities, frequent contacts with doctors, and with any hospital stay for diabetes or influenza during the last year were more likely to start and/or less likely to stop SIV. The mean expected number of seasons with SIV uptake over 10 seasons (range: 2.6-7.9) was lowest for women <65 years with untreated diabetes and highest for men ?65 years with type 1 diabetes. Contacts with doctors and some clinical events may play a key role in SIV adoption. Healthcare workers have a crucial role in reducing missed opportunities for SIV. The existence of empirical patient profiles with different patterns of SIV uptake should encourage their use of tailored educational approaches about SIV to address patients' vaccine hesitancy.
Project description:In Australia, pneumococcal vaccine is provided free to all adults aged ?65 years and Indigenous people aged 15-65 years, and is subsidized for non-Indigenous adults <65 years of age with risk factors. This study aimed to explore pneumococcal vaccination uptake in older patients attending 550 Australian general practices from 2010-2017 by patient sociodemographics, presence of comorbidities and practice characteristics. Study 1: a cross-sectional analysis of 'active' patients aged ?65 years in each year was performed to calculate annual pneumococcal vaccination uptake. Study 2: a cohort of 58,589 'every year' patients aged 60-65 years in 2010 was analyzed to identify the number of patients immunized during the study period. Logistic regression models assessed associations between vaccination, patient and practice characteristics. Annual pneumococcal vaccine uptake varied by patient's age (65-74 or ?75 years), presence of comorbidities and regularity of practice visits (range 36% to 76%), and it declined slowly from 2011-2016 amongst all groups. Cohort analyses showed that 69% of those aged 60-65 years in 2010 had a recorded pneumococcal vaccination by 2017 (peak age of vaccination = 66 years), and vaccination was more likely among those with comorbidities, ex-smokers and frequent attenders to practices. Findings demonstrate that the NPS MedicineInsight database provides estimates of vaccination uptake consistent with past surveys, reproducible every year and at low cost. It has the advantage of additional clinical information compared to the Australian Immunization Register. Whilst vaccination uptake was adequate among 'every year' patients, interventions are needed to improve pneumococcal vaccination for all older Australians.
Project description:Background. ?This retrospective study investigates the healthcare costs of herpes zoster (HZ) in patients with selected immune-compromised (IC) conditions in the United States (US). Methods. ?Patients with incident HZ diagnosis (index date) were selected from nationwide administrative claims databases from 2005 to 2009. Baseline IC groups, analyzed separately, included adults aged 18-64 years with the following: human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV), solid organ transplant (SOT), bone marrow or stem cell transplant (BMSCT), or cancer; and older adults (aged ?65 years) with cancer. Herpes zoster patients (n = 2020, n = 1053, n = 286, n = 13 178, and n = 9089, respectively) were 1-to-1 matched to controls without HZ (with randomly selected index date) in the same baseline group. The healthcare resource utilization and costs (2014 US dollars) during the first 2 postindex quarters were compared between matched cohorts with continuous enrollment during the quarter. Results. ?Herpes zoster patients generally had greater use of inpatient, emergency room and outpatient services, and pain medications than matched controls (P < .05). The incremental costs of HZ during the first postindex quarter were $3056, $2649, $13 332, $2549, and $3108 for HIV, SOT, BMSCT, cancer in adults aged 18-64 years, and cancer in older adults, respectively (each P < .05). The incremental costs of HZ during the second quarter were only significant for adults aged 18-64 years with cancer ($1748, P < .05). The national incremental costs of HZ were projected to be $298 million annually across the 5 IC groups. Conclusions. ?The healthcare cost associated with HZ among patients with studied IC conditions was sizable and occurred mainly during the first 90 days after diagnosis.
Project description:Patients aged ? 65 years are vulnerable to readmissions due to a transient period of generalized risk after hospitalization. However, whether young and middle-aged adults share a similar risk pattern is uncertain. We compared the rate, timing, and readmission diagnoses following hospitalization for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and pneumonia among patients aged 18-64 years with patients aged ? 65 years.We used an all-payer administrative dataset from California consisting of all hospitalizations for HF (n=206,141), AMI (n=107,256), and pneumonia (n=199,620) from 2007-2009. The primary outcomes were unplanned 30-day readmission rate, timing of readmission, and readmission diagnoses. Our findings show that the readmission rate among patients aged 18-64 years exceeded the readmission rate in patients aged ? 65 years in the HF cohort (23.4% vs. 22.0%, p<0.001), but was lower in the AMI (11.2% vs. 17.5%, p<0.001) and pneumonia (14.4% vs. 17.3%, p<0.001) cohorts. When adjusted for sex, race, comorbidities, and payer status, the 30-day readmission risk in patients aged 18-64 years was similar to patients ? 65 years in the HF (HR 0.99; 95%CI 0.97-1.02) and pneumonia (HR 0.97; 95%CI 0.94-1.01) cohorts and was marginally lower in the AMI cohort (HR 0.92; 95%CI 0.87-0.96). For all cohorts, the timing of readmission was similar; readmission risks were highest between days 2 and 5 and declined thereafter across all age groups. Diagnoses other than the index admission diagnosis accounted for a substantial proportion of readmissions among age groups <65 years; a non-cardiac diagnosis represented 39-44% of readmissions in the HF cohort and 37-45% of readmissions in the AMI cohort, while a non-pulmonary diagnosis represented 61-64% of patients in the pneumonia cohort.When adjusted for differences in patient characteristics, young and middle-aged adults have 30-day readmission rates that are similar to elderly patients for HF, AMI, and pneumonia. A generalized risk after hospitalization is present regardless of age. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
Project description:To estimate the societal economic and health impacts of Maine's school-based influenza vaccination (SIV) program during the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic.Primary and secondary data covering the 2008-09 and 2009-10 influenza seasons.We estimated weekly monovalent influenza vaccine uptake in Maine and 15 other states, using difference-in-difference-in-differences analysis to assess the program's impact on immunization among six age groups. We also developed a health and economic Markov microsimulation model and conducted Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis.We used national survey data to estimate the impact of the SIV program on vaccine coverage. We used primary data and published studies to develop the microsimulation model.The program was associated with higher immunization among children and lower immunization among adults aged 18-49 years and 65 and older. The program prevented 4,600 influenza infections and generated $4.9 million in net economic benefits. Cost savings from lower adult vaccination accounted for 54 percent of the economic gain. Economic benefits were positive in 98 percent of Monte Carlo simulations.SIV may be a cost-beneficial approach to increase immunization during pandemics, but programs should be designed to prevent lower immunization among nontargeted groups.