Estimation of total cardiovascular risk using the 2019 WHO CVD prediction charts and comparison of population-level costs based on alternative drug therapy guidelines: a population-based study of adults in Bangladesh.
ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:The objective of this study was to estimate the population distribution of 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among Bangladeshi adults aged 40 years and above, using the 2019 WHO CVD risk prediction charts. Additionally, we compared the cost of CVD pharmacological treatment based on the total CVD risk (thresholds ?30%/?20%) and the single risk factor (hypertension) cut-off levels in the Bangladeshi context. STUDY DESIGN:Cross-sectional, population-based study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:From 2013 to 2014, we collected data from a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of adults aged ?40 years from urban and rural areas of Bangladesh (n=6189). We estimated CVD risk using the 2019 WHO CVD risk prediction charts and categorised as very low (<5%), low (5% to <10%), moderate (10% to <20%), high (20% to <30%) and very high risk (?30%). We estimated drug therapy costs using the lowest price of each drug class available (aspirin, thiazide diuretics, statins and ACE inhibitors). We compared the total cost of drug therapy using the total CVD risk versus single risk factor approach. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Our primary outcome was 10-year CVD risk categorised as very low (<5%), low (5% to <10%), moderate (10% to <20%), high (20% to <30%) and very high risk (?30%). RESULTS:The majority of adults (85.2%, 95%?CI 84.3 to 86.1) have a 10-year CVD risk of less than 10%. The proportion of adults with a 10-year CVD risk of ?20% was 0.51%. Only one adult was categorised with a 10-year CVD risk of ?30%. Among adults with CVD risk groups of very low, low and moderate, 17.4%, 27.9% and 41.4% had hypertension (blood pressure (BP) ?140/90) and 0.1%, 1.7% and 2.9% had severe hypertension (BP ?160/100), respectively. Using the total CVD risk approach would reduce drug costs per million populations to US$144?540 (risk of ?20%). CONCLUSION:To reduce healthcare expenditure for the prevention and treatment of CVD, a total risk approach using the 2019 WHO CVD risk prediction charts may lead to cost savings.
Project description:Background:South Africa has the largest population of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) realising the benefits of increased life expectancy. However, this population may be susceptible to cardiovascular disease (CVD) development, due to the chronic consequences of a lifestyle-related combination of risk factors, HIV infection and ART. We predicted a 10-year cardiovascular mortality risk in an HIV-infected population on long-term ART, based on their observed metabolic risk factor profile. Methods:We extracted data from hospital medical charts for 384 randomly selected HIV-infected patients aged ??30 years. We defined metabolic syndrome (MetS) subcomponents using the International Diabetes Federation definition. A validated non-laboratory-based model for predicting a 10-year CVD mortality risk was applied and categorised into five levels, with the thresholds ranging from very low-risk (<?5%) to very high-risk scores (>?30%). Results:Among the 384 patients, with a mean (± standard deviation) age of 42.90?±?8.20 years, the proportion of patients that were overweight/obese was 53.3%, where 50.9% had low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and 21 (17.5%) had metabolic syndrome. A total of 144 patients with complete data allowed a definitive prediction of a 10-year CVD mortality risk. 52% (95% CI 44-60) of the patients were stratified to very low risk (<?5%) compared to 8% (95% CI 4-13) that were at a very high risk (>?30%) of 10-year CVD mortality. The CVD risk grows with increasing age (years), 57.82?±?6.27 among very high risk and 37.52?±?4.50; p?<?0.001 in very low risk patients. Adjusting for age and analysing CVD risk mortality as a continuous risk score, increasing duration of HIV infection (p?=?0.002) and ART (p?=?0.007) were significantly associated with increased predicted 10 year CVD mortality risk. However, there was no association between these factors and categorised CVD mortality risk as per recommended scoring thresholds. Conclusions:Approximately 1 in 10 HIV-infected patients is at very high risk of predicted 10-year CVD mortality in our study population. Like uninfected individuals, our study found increased age as a major predictor of 10-year mortality risk and high prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Additional CVD mortality risk due to the duration of HIV infection and ART was seen in our population, further studies in larger and more representative study samples are encouraged. It recommends an urgent need for early planning, prevention and management of metabolic risk factors in HIV populations, at the point of ART initiation.
Project description:Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. METHODS:Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. FINDINGS:Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ?10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ?20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. INTERPRETATION:Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. FUNDING:National Institutes of Health.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The brunt of cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden globally now resides within low- and middle-income countries, including Indonesia. However, little is known regarding cardiovascular health in Indonesia. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of elevated CVD risk in a specific region of Indonesia. METHODS:We conducted full household screening for cardiovascular risk factors among adults aged 40 years and older in 8 villages in Malang District, East Java Province, Indonesia, in 2016-2017. 10-year cardiovascular risk scores were calculated based on the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension's region-specific charts that use age, sex, blood pressure, diabetes status and smoking behaviour. RESULTS:Among 22,093 participants, 6,455 (29.2%) had high cardiovascular risk, defined as the presence of coronary heart disease, stroke or other atherosclerotic disease; estimated 10-year CVD risk of ? 30%; or estimated 10-year CVD risk between 10% to 29% combined with a systolic blood pressure of > 140 mmHg. The prevalence of high CVD risk was greater in urban (31.6%, CI 30.7-32.5%) than in semi-urban (28.7%, CI 27.3-30.1%) and rural areas (26.2%, CI 25.2-27.2%). Only 11% and 1% of all the respondents with high CVD risk were on blood pressure lowering and statins treatment, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:High cardiovascular risk is common among Indonesian adults aged ?40 years, and rates of preventive treatment are low. Population-based and clinical approaches to preventing CVD should be a priority in both urban and rural areas.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Non-optimal blood pressure (BP) levels are a major cause of disease burden globally. We describe current BP and treatment patterns in rural India and compare different approaches to BP lowering in this setting. METHODS:All individuals aged ?40 years from 54 villages in a South Indian district were invited and 62,194 individuals (84%) participated in a cross-sectional study. Individual 10-year absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk was estimated using WHO/ISH charts. Using known effects of treatment, proportions of events that would be averted under different paradigms of BP lowering therapy were estimated. RESULTS:After imputation of pre-treatment BP levels for participants on existing treatment, 76·9% (95% confidence interval, 75.7-78.0%), 5·3% (4.9-5.6%), and 17·8% (16.9-18.8%) of individuals had a 10-year CVD risk defined as low (<?20%), intermediate (20-29%), and high (?30%, established CVD, or BP >?160/100 mmHg), respectively. Compared to the 19.6% (18.4-20.9%) of adults treated with current practice, a slightly higher or similar proportion would be treated using an intermediate (23·2% (22.0-24.3%)) or high (17·9% (16.9-18.8%) risk threshold for instituting BP lowering therapy and this would avert 87·2% (85.8-88.5%) and 62·7% (60.7-64.6%) more CVD events over ten years, respectively. These strategies were highly cost-effective relative to the current practice. CONCLUSION:In a rural Indian community, a substantial proportion of the population has elevated CVD risk. The more efficient and cost-effective clinical approach to BP lowering is to base treatment decisions on an estimate of an individual's short-term absolute CVD risk rather than with BP based strategy. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:Clinical Trials Registry of India CTRI/2013/06/003753 , 14 June 2013.
Project description:The Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) predicts 10-year risk of first-time atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and was incorporated in analyses of a primary and secondary prevention population in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT). Whether PCE enhances risk prediction among secondary prevention populations is unknown. We sought to compare ASCVD events by level of PCE-predicted risk among primary and secondary prevention SPRINT populations. SPRINT randomized adults with hypertension and ?1 CVD risk factor or previous CVD events to systolic blood pressure control targeting <120 mm Hg or 135 to 139 mm Hg. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) of ASCVD events among secondary versus primary (reference) prevention subgroups overall and by predicted 10-year ASCVD risk categories (<10%, 10% to <20%, 20% to <30%, and ?30%) and within risk subgroups, comparing to the lowest risk category. Among 8,151 participants, 16% with previous CVD, mean age was 66 years and 35% were women. The HR for ASCVD events overall was 2.51 (1.96, 3.20). HR was 2.97 (1.47, 5.99) among <10% 10-year risk and 2.23 (1.38, 3.59) among ?30% risk. Within subgroups comparing ?30% to <10% risk (reference) categories, the HR was 2.85 (1.76, 4.63) for primary and 2.14 (1.07, 4.30) for the secondary prevention. In conclusion, history of previous events was a potent risk factor for subsequent ASCVD events. The PCE does not enhance risk prediction among secondary prevention populations and may differentially underestimate risk in secondary prevention populations with lowest predicted risk.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>The updated national guidelines for cardiovascular risk assessment and lipid modification in the UK and US expand the indications for statin therapy in primary prevention to adults with moderate risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but many adults at high CVD risk remain untreated in both countries. We set out to identify treatment gaps in English and American adults at moderate and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to estimate the number of CVD events that would be prevented from expanding statin therapy to those who are currently untreated.<h4>Methods</h4>We used nationally representative samples of 10,375 English adults and 7,687 US adults aged 40-75 years and free of existing CVD from the Health Survey for England 2009-2013, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2012 in the US. We used the risk algorithms and the risk thresholds for statin therapy recommended by each country's national guideline to categorize the survey participants into moderate-risk (?10% to <20% 10-year risk of CVD in England and ?7.5% to <20% risk in the US) or high-risk (?20%risk) and simulated the number of events that would be prevented from expansion of statin therapy to those currently untreated.<h4>Results</h4>Close to half of adults at high CVD risk in England (46.0%) and the US (49.7%) were not receiving statins. Expanding statin use to 1.45 million high-risk adults in England would save 101,000 (95% CI = 81,000-120,000) CVD events in the next 10 years compared with 128,000 (103,000-154,000) CVD events that would be prevented from expanding treatment to 3.64 million untreated moderate-risk adults. In the US, expanding statin use to 5.27 million untreated high-risk adults would save 384,000 (305,000-461,000) CVD events over 10 years compared with 616,000 (493,000-738,000) CVD events that would be prevented from treating 20.29 million untreated moderate-risk adults.<h4>Conclusions</h4>In both England and the US, expanding statin therapy to untreated moderate-risk adults would prevent a comparable number of events as expanding statin use to a much smaller number of currently untreated high-risk adults. A large potential for CVD prevention remains from improving coverage of statin therapy among high-risk adults.
Project description:The 2014 guidelines on cardiovascular risk assessment and lipid modification from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommend statin therapy for adults with prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD), and for adults with a 10-year CVD risk of ?10%, estimated using the QRISK2 algorithm.To determine risk factor levels required to exceed the risk threshold for statin therapy, and to estimate the number of adults in England who would require statin therapy under the guidelines.Cross-sectional study using a sample representative of the English population aged 30-84 years.To estimate 10-year CVD risk different combinations of risk factor levels were entered into the QRISK2 algorithm. The NICE guidelines were applied to the sample using data from the Health Survey for England 2011.Even with optimal risk factor levels, males of different ethnicities would exceed the 10% risk threshold between the ages of 60 and 70 years, and females would exceed the threshold between 65 and 75 years. Under the NICE guidelines, 11.8 million males and females (37% of the adults aged 30-84 years) would require statin therapy, most of them (9.8 million) for primary prevention. When analysed by age, 95% of males and 66% of females without CVD in ages 60-74 years, including all males and females in ages 75-84 years, would require statin therapy.Under the 2014 NICE guidelines, 11.8 million (37%) adults in England aged 30-84 years, including almost all males >60 years in all females >75 years, require statin therapy.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:The degree to which mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence remains elevated in young U.S. adults with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) is unclear. We determined contemporary rates for adults <45 years old with long-standing, childhood-onset T1DM from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:Members of the EDC Study cohort <45 years old during the 1996-2012 follow-up period (n = 502) were studied. Mortality and CVD rates were calculated for those aged 30-39 and 40-44 years. Data from the background Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, population were used to calculate age- and sex-matched standardized mortality (SMR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR). RESULTS:In both age groups, the SMR for total mortality was ∼5 (95% CIs: 30-39-year-olds, 2.8, 7.2; 40-44-year-olds, 3.4, 7.8). CVD mortality SMRs ranged from 19 (95% CI 11, 32) to 33 (95% CI 17, 59). Hospitalized CVD IRR was ∼8 (95% CIs: 30-39-year-olds, 2.5, 18.9; 40-44-year-olds, 4.5, 12.8); revascularization procedures account for much of the increased risk. For all outcomes, the relative risk was larger in women. Participants aged 30-39 years had 6.3% (95% CI 3.8, 9.8) absolute 10-year CVD risk, approaching the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association-recommended cut point of 7.5% for initiation of statin therapy in older adults. CONCLUSIONS:Total and CVD mortality and hospitalized CVD are all significantly increased in this contemporary U.S. cohort of young adults with long-standing T1DM. These findings support more aggressive risk factor management in T1DM, especially among women.
Project description:Antihypertensive drug treatment is cost-effective for adults at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the cost-effectiveness in people with stage 1 hypertension (140-159 mm?Hg systolic blood pressure) at lower CVD risk remains unclear. The objective was to establish the 10-year CVD risk threshold where initiating antihypertensive drug treatment for primary prevention in adults, with stage 1 hypertension, becomes cost-effective. A lifetime horizon Markov model compared antihypertensive drug versus no treatment, using a UK National Health Service perspective. Analyses were conducted for groups ranging between 5% and 20% 10-year CVD risk. Health states included no CVD event, CVD and non-CVD death, and 6 nonfatal CVD morbidities. Interventions were compared using cost-per-quality-adjusted life-years. The base-case age was 60, with analyses repeated between ages 40 and 75. The model was run separately for men and women, and threshold CVD risk assessed against the minimum plausible risk for each group. Treatment was cost-effective at 10% CVD risk for both sexes (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £10?017/quality-adjusted life-year [$14?542] men, £8635/QALY [$12?536] women) in the base-case. The result was robust in probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses but was sensitive to treatment effects. Treatment was cost-effective for men regardless of age and women aged >60. Initiating treatment in stage 1 hypertension for people aged 60 is cost-effective regardless of 10-year CVD risk. For other age groups, it is also cost-effective to treat regardless of risk, except in younger women.