Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality Among a Cohort of Children and Young Adults Starting Dialysis in 1995 to 2015.
ABSTRACT: Importance:Survival of patients receiving dialysis has improved during the last 2 decades. However, few studies have examined temporal trends in the attributed causes of death (especially cardiovascular-related) in young populations. Objective:To determine temporal trends and risk of cause-specific mortality (ie, cardiovascular and infectious) for children and young adults receiving dialysis. Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective cohort study examined the records of children and young adults (aged <30 years) starting dialysis between 1995 and 2015 according to the United States Renal Data System database. Analyses were performed between June 2019 and June 2020. Fine-Gray models were used to examine trends in risk of different cardiovascular-related deaths. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race, neighborhood income, cause of end-stage kidney disease, insurance type, and comorbidities. Analyses were performed separately for children (ie, age <18 years) and young adults (between ages 18 and 30 years). Follow-up was censored at death or administratively, and transplantation was treated as a competing event. Exposures:Calendar year. Main Outcomes and Measures:Cardiovascular cause-specific mortality. Results:A total of 80?189 individuals (median [interquartile range] age, 24 [19-28] years; 36?259 [45.2%] female, 29?508 [36.8%] Black, and 15?516 [19.3%] Hispanic white) started dialysis and 16?179 experienced death during a median (interquartile range) of 14.3 (14.0-14.7) years of follow-up. Overall, 40.2% of deaths were from cardiovascular-related causes (6505 of 16?179 patients). In adjusted analysis, risk of cardiovascular-related death was stable initially but became statistically significantly lower after 2006 (vs 1995) in those starting dialysis as either children (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.74; 95% CI, 0.55-1.00) or adults (SHR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.98). Risk of sudden cardiac death improved steadily for all age groups, but to a greater degree in children (SHR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.20-0.47) vs young adults (SHR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.56-0.73) comparing 2015 vs 1995. Risk of stroke became statistically significantly lower around 2010 (vs 1995) for children (SHR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.18-0.88) and young adults (SHR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.59-0.99). Conclusions and Relevance:In this study, the risk of cardiovascular-related death declined for children and young adults starting dialysis during the last 2 decades, but trends differed depending on age at dialysis initiation and the specific cause of death. Additional studies are needed to improve risk of cardiovascular disease in young populations.
Project description:Background Early kidney transplantation (KT) is the best option for patients with end-stage kidney disease, but little is known about dialysis access strategy in this context. We studied practice patterns of dialysis access and how they relate with outcomes in adults wait-listed early for KT according to the intended donor source. Methods This study from the REIN registry (2002–2014) included 9331 incident dialysis patients (age 18–69) wait-listed for KT before or by 6?months after starting dialysis: 8342 candidates for deceased-donor KT and 989 for living-donor KT. Subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) of KT and death associated with hemodialysis by catheter or peritoneal dialysis compared with arteriovenous (AV) access were estimated with Fine and Gray models. Results Living-donor candidates used pretransplant peritoneal dialysis at rates similar to deceased-donor KT candidates, but had significantly more frequent catheter than AV access for hemodialysis (adjusted OR 1.25; 95%CI 1.09–1.43). Over a median follow-up of 43 (IQR: 23–67) months, 6063 patients received transplants and 305 died before KT. Median duration of pretransplant dialysis was 15 (7–27) months for deceased-donor recipients and 9 (5–15) for living-donor recipients. Catheter use in deceased-donor candidates was associated with a lower SHR for KT (0.88, 95%CI 0.82–0.94) and a higher SHR for death (1.53, 95%CI 1.14–2.04). Only five deaths occurred in living-donor candidates, three of them with catheter use. Conclusions Pretransplant dialysis duration may be quite long even when planned with a living donor. Advantages from protecting these patients from AV fistula creation must be carefully evaluated against catheter-related risks.
Project description:<h4>Introduction</h4>People with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) have up to 30-fold higher risk of stroke than the general population.<h4>Objective</h4>To determine risk factors associated with stroke death in the ESKD population.<h4>Methods</h4>We identified all patients with incident ESKD in Australia (1980-2013) and New Zealand (1988-2012) from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA) registry. We ascertained underlying cause of death from data linkage with national death registries and risk factors from ANZDATA. Using a competing risks multivariable regression model, we estimated cumulative incidence of stroke and non-stroke deaths, and risk factors for stroke deaths (adjusted sub-HR, SHR).<h4>Results</h4>We included 60?823 people with ESKD. There were 941 stroke deaths and 33?377 non-stroke deaths during 381?874 person-years of follow-up. Overall, the cumulative incidence of stroke death was 0.9% and non-stroke death was 36.8% 5?years after starting ESKD treatment. The risk of stroke death was higher at older ages (SHR 1.92, 95%?CI 1.45 to 2.55), in females (SHR 1.41, 95%?CI 1.21 to 1.64), in people with cerebrovascular disease (SHR 2.39, 95%?CI 1.99 to 2.87), with ESKD caused by hypertensive/renovascular disease (SHR 1.39, 95%?CI 1.09 to 1.78) or polycystic kidney disease (SHR 1.38, 95%?CI 1.00 to 1.90), with earlier year of ESKD treatment initiation (SHR 1.93, 95%?CI 1.56 to 2.39) and receiving dialysis (transplant vs haemodialysis SHR 0.27, 95%?CI 0.09 to 0.84).<h4>Conclusion</h4>Patients with ESKD with higher risk of stroke death are older, women, with cerebrovascular disease, with hypertensive/renovascular or polycystic kidney disease cause of ESKD, with earlier year of ESKD treatment and receiving dialysis. These groups may benefit from targeted stroke prevention interventions.
Project description:Background The majority of studies evaluating cardiorespiratory fitness ( CRF ) as a cardiovascular risk factor use cardiovascular mortality and not cardiovascular disease events as the primary end point, and generally do not include women. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of estimated CRF ( eCRF ) with the risk of first acute myocardial infarction ( AMI ). Methods and Results We included 26 163 participants (51.5% women) from the HUNT study (Nord-Trøndelag Health Study), with a mean age of 55.7 years, without cardiovascular disease at baseline. Baseline eCRF was grouped into tertiles. AMI was derived from hospital records and deaths from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. We used Fine and Gray regression modeling to estimate subdistribution hazards ratio ( SHR ) of AMI , accounting for competing risk of death. During a mean (range) follow-up of 13 (0.02-15.40) years (347 462 person-years), 1566 AMI events were recorded. In fully adjusted models men in the 2 highest eCRF had 4% ( SHR : 0.96, 95% CI : 0.83-1.11) and 10% ( SHR : 0.90, 95% CI : 0.77-1.05) lower SHR of AMI , respectively, when compared with men in the lowest tertile. The corresponding numbers in women were 12% ( SHR : 0.88, 95% CI : 0.72-1.08) and 25% ( SHR : 0.75, 95% CI : 0.60-0.95). Conclusions eCRF was inversely associated with risk of AMI event among women but not in men. Our data suggest that high eCRF may have substantial benefit in reducing the risk of AMI . Therefore, our data suggest that an increased focus on eCRF as a cardiovascular disease risk marker in middle-aged and older adults is warranted.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Little is known about factors associated with recovery of kidney function-and return to dialysis independence-or temporal trends in recovery after starting outpatient dialysis in the United States. Understanding the characteristics of individuals who may have the potential to recover kidney function may promote better recognition of such events. The goal of this study was to determine factors associated with recovery of kidney function in children compared with adults starting dialysis in the US.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We determined factors associated with recovery of kidney function-defined as survival and discontinuation of dialysis for ?90-day period-in children versus adults who started maintenance dialysis between 1996 and 2015 according to the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) followed through 2016 in a retrospective cohort study. We also examined temporal trends in recovery rates over the last 2 decades in this cohort. Among 1,968,253 individuals included for study, the mean age was 62.6 ± 15.8 years, and 44% were female. Overall, 4% of adults (83,302/1,953,881) and 4% of children (547/14,372) starting dialysis in the outpatient setting recovered kidney function within 1 year. Among those who recovered, the median time to recovery was 73 days (interquartile range [IQR] 43-131) in adults and 100 days (IQR 56-189) in children. Accounting for the competing risk of death, children were less likely to recover kidney function compared with adults (sub-hazard ratio [sub-HR] 0.81; 95% CI 0.74-0.89, p-value <0.001; point estimates <1 indicating increased risk for a negative outcome). Non-Hispanic black (NHB) adults were less likely to recover compared with non-Hispanic white (NHW) adults, but these racial differences were not observed in children. Of note, a steady increase in the incidence of recovery of kidney function was noted initially in adults and children between 1996 and 2010, but this trend declined thereafter. The diagnoses associated with the highest recovery rates of recovery were acute tubular necrosis (ATN) and acute interstitial nephritis (AIN) in both adults and children, where 25%-40% of patients recovered kidney function depending on the calendar year of dialysis initiation. Limitations to our study include the potential for residual confounding to be present given the observational nature of our data.<h4>Conclusions</h4>In this study, we observed that discontinuation of outpatient dialysis due to recovery occurred in 4% of patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and was more common among those with ATN or AIN as the cause of their kidney disease. While recovery rates rose initially, they declined starting in 2010. Additional studies are needed to understand how to best recognize and promote recovery in patients whose potential to discontinue dialysis is high in the outpatient setting.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Obesity is a health problem in its own right and a risk factor for other conditions such as cardiovascular disease. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased in Scotland between 1995 and 2008 with socio-economic inequalities persisting in adults over time and increasing in children. This paper explores changes in the underlying distribution of body mass index (BMI) which is less well understood.<h4>Methods</h4>Using data from the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) between 1995 and 2014 for adults aged 18-64 years, we calculated population distributions for BMI for the population overall, and for age, sex and deprivation strata. We used SHeS data for children aged 2-15 years between 1998 and 2014, in addition to data from the Child Health Systems Programme (CHSP) collected from primary one (P1) children in participating local authorities, to describe the overall trends and to compare trends in inequalities by deprivation strata.<h4>Results</h4>Amongst adults, the BMI distribution shifted upwards, with a large proportion of the population gaining a small amount of weight between 1995 and 2008 before subsequently stabilising across the distribution. In men the prevalence of obesity showed a linear deprivation gradient in 1995 but over time obesity declined in the least deprived quintile while the remaining four quintiles converged (and stabilised). In contrast, a persistent and generally linear gradient is evident among women for most of the 1995-2014 period. For those aged 2-15 years, obesity increased between 1998 and 2014 for the most deprived 40% of children contrasted with stable trends for the least deprived. The surveillance data for P1 children in Scotland showed a persistent inequality between 2005/06 and 2014/15 though it was less clear if this is widening.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The BMI distribution for adults increased between 1995 and 2008 with a large proportion of the population gaining a small amount of weight before stabilising across the distribution. Inequalities in obesity persist for adults (with different underlying patterns evident for men and women), and may be widening for children. Actions to reduce the obesogenic environment, including structural changes not dependent on individual agency, are urgently needed if the long-term health, social and inequality consequences of obesity are to be reduced.
Project description:Survivors of acute kidney injury are at an increased risk of developing irreversible deterioration in kidney function and in some cases, the need for chronic dialysis. We aimed to determine predictors of chronic dialysis and death among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury.We used linked administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, to identify patients who were discharged from hospital after an episode of acute kidney injury requiring dialysis and remained free of further dialysis for at least 90 days after discharge between 1996 and 2009. Follow-up extended until March 31, 2011. The primary outcome was progression to chronic dialysis. Predictors for this outcome were evaluated using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, and a competing risk approach was used to calculate absolute risk.We identified 4 383 patients with acute kidney injury requiring temporary in-hospital dialysis who survived to discharge. After a mean follow-up of 2.4 years, 356 (8%) patients initiated chronic dialysis and 1475 (34%) died. The cumulative risk of chronic dialysis was 13.5% by the Kaplan-Meier method, and 10.3% using a competing risk approach. After accounting for the competing risk of death, previous nephrology consultation (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 2.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-2.58), a history of chronic kidney disease (sHR3.86; 95% CI 2.99-4.98), a higher Charlson comorbidity index score (sHR 1.10; 95% CI 1.05-1.15/per unit) and pre-existing hypertension (sHR 1.82; 95% CI 1.28-2.58) were significantly associated with an increased risk of progression to chronic dialysis.Among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury who initially become dialysis independent, the subsequent need for chronic dialysis is predicted by pre-existing kidney disease, hypertension and global comorbidity. This information can identify patients at high risk of progressive kidney disease who may benefit from closer surveillance after cessation of the acute phase of illness.
Project description:Anemia is common in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. Whereas the treatment of anemia in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has attracted considerable attention, relatively little is known about patterns and trends in the anemia care received by patients before they start maintenance dialysis or undergo preemptive kidney transplantation.To determine the trends in anemia treatment received by Medicare beneficiaries approaching ESRD.Closed cohort study in the United States using national ESRD registry data (US Renal Data System) of patients 67 years or older who initiated maintenance dialysis or underwent preemptive kidney transplantation between 1995 and 2010. All eligible patients had uninterrupted Medicare (A+B) coverage for at least 2 years before ESRD.Time, defined as calendar year of incident ESRD.Use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESA), intravenous iron supplements, and blood transfusions in the 2 years prior to ESRD; hemoglobin concentration at the time of ESRD. We used multivariable modified Poisson regression to estimate utilization prevalence ratios (PRs).Records of 466,803 patients were analyzed. The proportion of patients with incident ESRD receiving any ESA in the 2 years before increased from 3.2% in 1995 to a peak of 40.8% in 2007; thereafter, ESA use decreased modestly to 35.0% in 2010 (compared with 1995; PR, 9.85 [95% CI, 9.04-10.74]). Among patients who received an ESA, median time from first recorded ESA use to ESRD increased from 120 days in 1995 to 337 days in 2010. Intravenous iron administration increased from 1.2% (1995) to 12.3% (2010; PR, 9.20 [95% CI, 7.97-10.61]). The proportion of patients receiving any blood transfusions increased monotonically from 20.6% (1995) to 40.3% (2010; PR, 1.88 [95% CI, 1.82-1.95]). Mean hemoglobin concentrations were 9.5 g/dL in 1995, increased to a peak of 10.3 g/dL in 2006, and then decreased moderately to 9.9 g/dL in 2010.Between 1995 and 2010, older adults approaching ESRD were increasingly more likely to be treated with ESAs and to receive intravenous iron supplementation, but also more likely to receive blood transfusions.
Project description:Background:To evaluate the time trends of colorectal cancer (CRC) affected by a Nationwide Colorectal Cancer Screening (NCCS) programme with biennial faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and Nationwide Healthcare Insurance (NHI). Methods:Data from the national registries on cancer and death in Taiwan were separated into years 1984-1993, 1994-2003 and 2004-2013 based on the implementations of NHI (starting 1995) and NCCS (starting 2004). The adult population was divided into three age groups (young, 30-49; middle-aged, 50-69; and old, 70-84 years); only the middle-aged were eligible for NCCS. Crude and adjusted effects of NCCS and NHI were quantified by percentage change and 95% confidence interval (CI) with respect to CRC mortality, according to the attributions from incidence and survival. Results:Within 335 million person-years of follow-up, 204 362 incident CRCs and 80 771 CRC-related deaths were identified. Increasing mortality trends were noted for 1994-2003 (post-NHI) vs 1984-1993 due to remarkable increasing incidence trends that could not be offset by improved survival as a result of NHI. During 2004-13 (post-NCCS), mortality continued to increase by 15% (95% CI: 10-21%) in young adults (30-49 years) and 8% (95% CI: 6-11%) in older adults (70-84 years), whereas middle-aged adults (50-69 years) had a reduction of 7% (95% CI: 5-9%) due to a remarkable stage shift and subsequent improvement in survival. In the middle-aged adults, increased incidence was less but survival improvement was more compared with other age groups. Conclusions:Whereas universal healthcare insurance led to improvement in CRC survival, FIT-based screening has made an even greater contribution to reducing CRC mortality.
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To examine associations of body mass index (BMI) and weight loss with cause-specific mortality in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS:A cohort of US veterans with RA was followed until death or through 2013. BMI was categorized as underweight, normal, overweight, and obese. Weight loss was calculated as the 1) annualized rate of change over the preceding 13 months, and 2) cumulative percent. Vital status and cause of death were obtained from the National Death Index. Multivariable competing-risks regression models were utilized to assess the time-varying associations of BMI and weight loss with cause-specific mortality. RESULTS:Among 1,600 participants and 5,789 patient-years of followup, 303 deaths occurred (95 cardiovascular, 74 cancer, and 46 respiratory). The highest weight-loss rate and weight-loss percent were associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (rate: subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 2.27 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.61-3.19]; percent: sHR 2.31 [95% CI 1.06-5.01]) and cancer mortality (rate: sHR 2.36 [95% CI 1.11-5.01]; percent: sHR 1.90 [95% CI 1.00-3.62]). Overweight BMI was protective of cardiovascular mortality (sHR 0.59 [95% CI 0.38-0.91]), while underweight BMI was associated with a near 3-fold increased risk of respiratory mortality (sHR 2.93 [95% CI 1.28-6.67]). Incorporation of time-varying BMI and weight loss in the same models did not substantially alter individual associations for cardiovascular and cancer mortality, but an association between weight-loss percentage and respiratory mortality was attenuated after BMI adjustment. CONCLUSION:Both BMI and weight loss are predictors of cause-specific mortality in RA. Weight loss is a strong predictor of cardiovascular and cancer mortality, while underweight BMI is a stronger predictor of respiratory mortality.
Project description:Acute kidney injury is a serious complication of elective major surgery. Acute dialysis is used to support life in the most severe cases. We examined whether rates and outcomes of acute dialysis after elective major surgery have changed over time.We used data from Ontario's universal health care databases to study all consecutive patients who had elective major surgery at 118 hospitals between 1995 and 2009. Our primary outcomes were acute dialysis within 14 days of surgery, death within 90 days of surgery and chronic dialysis for patients who did not recover kidney function.A total of 552,672 patients underwent elective major surgery during the study period, 2231 of whom received acute dialysis. The incidence of acute dialysis increased steadily from 0.2% in 1995 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15-0.2) to 0.6% in 2009 (95% CI 0.6-0.7). This increase was primarily in cardiac and vascular surgeries. Among patients who received acute dialysis, 937 died within 90 days of surgery (42.0%, 95% CI 40.0-44.1), with no change in 90-day survival over time. Among the 1294 patients who received acute dialysis and survived beyond 90 days, 352 required chronic dialysis (27.2%, 95% CI 24.8-29.7), with no change over time.The use of acute dialysis after cardiac and vascular surgery has increased substantially since 1995. Studies focusing on interventions to better prevent and treat perioperative acute kidney injury are needed.