Association of progression-free or event-free survival with overall survival in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after immunochemotherapy: a systematic review.
ABSTRACT: To investigate progression-free survival (PFS) and event-free survival (EFS) as early efficacy endpoints in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), this systematic review included phase III randomized controlled trials (RCTs), phase II trials, and retrospective studies in newly diagnosed DLBCL receiving rituximab-containing chemotherapy through databases search up to 2019. Quality control was performed, where studies with high risk of bias were excluded. Prediction models were first established using the RCTs, and then externally validated in the phase II and retrospective populations. Trial-level surrogacy analysis was conducted by correlating the logarithmic (log) hazard ratio (HR) for PFS or EFS and log HR for OS. Correlation analysis at treatment arm-level was performed between 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year PFS or EFS rates and 5-year OS. The correlation was evaluated using the Pearson correlation coefficient r in weighted linear regression, with weight equal to patient size. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the consistency of predictive model by leaving one subgroup of trials out at a time. Twenty-six phase III RCTs, 4 phase II trials and 47 retrospective studies were included. In trial-level surrogacy, PFS (r, 0.772; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.471-0.913) or EFS (r, 0.838; 95% CI, 0.625-0.938) were associated with OS. For rituximab immunochemotherapy treatment arms in RCTs, there was a linear correlation between 1 and 5-year PFS (r, 0.813-0.873) or EFS (r, 0.853-0.931) and 5-year OS. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated reasonable overall consistency. The correlation between PFS and OS was externally validated using independent phase II, and retrospective data (r, 0.795-0.897). We recommend PFS and EFS as earlier efficacy endpoints in patients with DLBCL primarily treated with rituximab-containing immunochemotherapy.
Project description:Purpose Overall survival (OS) is the definitive and best-established primary efficacy end point to evaluate diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) therapies, but it requires prolonged follow-up. An earlier end point assessed post-treatment would expedite clinical trial conduct and accelerate patient access to effective new therapies. Our objective was to formally evaluate progression-free survival (PFS) and PFS at 24 months (PFS24) as surrogate end points for OS in first-line DLBCL. Patients and Methods Individual patient data were analyzed from 7,507 patients from 13 multicenter randomized controlled trials of active treatment in previously untreated DLBCL, published after 2002, with sufficient PFS data to predict treatment effects on OS. Trial-level surrogacy examining the correlation of treatment effect estimates of PFS/PFS24 and OS was evaluated using both linear regression ( R2WLS) and Copula bivariable ( R2Copula) models. Prespecified criteria for surrogacy required either R2WLS or R2Copula ? 0.80 and neither < 0.7, with lower-bound 95% CI > 0.60. Results Trial-level surrogacy for PFS was strong ( R2WLS = 0.83; R2Copula = 0.85) and met the predefined criteria for surrogacy. At the patient level, PFS strongly correlated with OS. The surrogate threshold effect had a hazard ratio of 0.89. Surrogacy was consistent across comparisons with or without rituximab and with rituximab maintenance trials. Trial-level surrogacy for PFS24 was relatively strong ( R2WLS = 0.77; R2Copula = 0.78) but did not meet prespecified criteria. At the patient level, PFS24 significantly correlated with OS. The surrogate threshold effect had an odds ratio of 1.51. Conclusion This large pooled analysis of individual patient data supports PFS as a surrogate end point for OS in future randomized controlled trials evaluating chemoimmunotherapy in DLBCL. Use of this end point may expedite therapeutic development with the intent of bringing novel therapies to this patient population years before OS results are mature.
Project description:Some patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) present with a concurrent indolent lymphoma at diagnosis. Their outcomes in the rituximab era are not fully defined. Using a prospectively followed cohort of 1324 newly diagnosed DLBCL patients treated with immunochemotherapy, we defined the prevalence, characteristics, and outcome of DLBCL with concurrent indolent lymphoma. Compared with patients with DLBCL alone (n = 1153; 87.1%), patients with concurrent DLBCL and follicular lymphoma (FL) (n = 109; 8.2%) had fewer elevations in lactate dehydrogenase, lower International Prognostic Index (IPI), and predominantly germinal center B-cell-like (GCB) subtype, whereas patients with concurrent DLBCL and other indolent lymphomas (n = 62; 4.7%) had more stage III-IV disease and a trend toward higher IPI and non-GCB subtype. After adjusting for IPI, patients with concurrent DLBCL and FL had similar event-free survival (EFS) (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.95) and a trend of better overall survival (OS) (HR = 0.75) compared with patients with DLBCL alone, but nearly identical EFS (HR = 1.00) and OS (HR = 0.84) compared with patients with GCB DLBCL alone. Patients with concurrent DLBCL and other indolent lymphomas had similar EFS (HR = 1.19) and OS (HR = 1.09) compared with patients with DLBCL alone. In conclusion, DLBCL patients with concurrent FL predominantly had the GCB subtype with outcomes similar to that of GCB DLBCL patients. DLBCL patients with concurrent other indolent lymphoma had similar outcomes compared with patients with DLBCL alone. These patients should not be summarily excluded from DLBCL clinical trials.
Project description:BACKGROUND:In randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of adjuvant treatment for malignant tumors, event-free survival (EFS) is considered the most acceptable surrogate for overall survival (OS). However, even though EFS has repeatedly been selected as a primary endpoint in RCTs of Ewing sarcoma (ES), the surrogacy of EFS for OS has not been investigated. This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between EFS and OS in RCTs of chemotherapy for newly diagnosed ES using a meta-analytic approach. METHODS:We identified seven RCTs of newly diagnosed ES through a systematic review, and a meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the efficacy and adverse events associated with chemotherapy for previously untreated ES. The correlation between EFS and OS was investigated using weighted linear regression analysis and Spearman rank correlation coefficients (?). The strength of the correlation was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2). RESULTS:A total of 3612 patients were randomly assigned to 17 treatment arms in the eligible RCTs. The meta-analysis revealed that the hazard ratios for OS and EFS showed significantly better results in the experimental treatment groups with increasing toxicities. The correlation between the hazard ratios for EFS and OS was good (R2?=?0.747, ??=?0.683), and the correlation tended to be more favorable in cases of localized ES (R2?=?0.818, ??=?0.929). CONCLUSIONS:Overall, the trial-level correlation between EFS and OS was good for newly diagnosed ES and was very good in cases of localized disease. EFS may be a useful endpoint in RCTs of ES chemotherapy, and it is worth verifying using individual patient data.
Project description:Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), either concurrent with or transformed from follicular lymphoma (FL) is often excluded from clinical trials. Lenalidomide has response rates of 45% in relapsed transformed DLBCL. Herein we present an analysis of MC078E, a phase II clinical trial testing lenalidomide plus R-CHOP (R2CHOP) for patients with untreated transformed/concurrent DLBCL (NCT00670358). Adult patients with transformed or concurrent DLBCL were included. Patients received six cycles of rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone (R-CHOP) with lenalidomide 25 mg days 1-10 of each cycle. The primary outcome was progression-free survival (PFS) at 24 months. Secondary outcomes were response rates, event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS). Thirty-nine patients were accrued from August 5, 2013 to July 28, 2020 and 33 were eligible by central pathology review. The median age was 64 (24-80) years, 18 (54%) were male, 25 (76%) were concurrent and 8 (24%) were transformed DLBCL. The PFS, EFS, and OS rates at 24 months were 84.4% (CI<sub>95</sub>: 67.2-94.7%), 84.5% (CI<sub>95</sub>: 72.9-98%), and 97.0% (CI<sub>95</sub>: 91.3-100%), respectively. R2CHOP is effective in concurrent and transformed DLBCL. The study supports the inclusion of anthracycline-naive transformed and concurrent DLBCL in future clinical trials of novel immunomodulatory analogues.
Project description:Event-free survival (EFS) is considered the most reliable surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of adjuvant therapies for malignant tumours. However, the surrogacy of intermediate endpoints such as EFS for OS in trials of patients with osteosarcoma has not been investigated to date. In this study, we investigated the correlation between OS and intermediate endpoints in RCTs of localised osteosarcoma. A systematic search identified 20 relevant RCTs. The correlations between the surrogate endpoints and OS were evaluated using weighted linear regression analyses and by calculating the Spearman rank correlation coefficients (?). The strength of the correlation was determined by calculating the coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>). A total of 5,620 patients were randomly assigned to 45 treatment arms in the eligible 20 RCTs. The correlation between the hazard ratios for EFS and OS was moderate (R<sup>2</sup>?=?0.456, ??=?0.440); this correlation tended to be weaker for patients with localised osteosarcoma excluding the patients with metastases. Overall, the trial-level correlation between the surrogate endpoints and OS was not robust in RCTs of osteosarcoma published to date. Hence, the suitability of the intermediate endpoints as surrogates for OS could not be confirmed.
Project description:PURPOSE:Ibrutinib has shown activity in non-germinal center B-cell diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). This double-blind phase III study evaluated ibrutinib and rituximab plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP) in untreated non-germinal center B-cell DLBCL. PATIENTS AND METHODS:Patients were randomly assigned at a one-to-one ratio to ibrutinib (560 mg per day orally) plus R-CHOP or placebo plus R-CHOP. The primary end point was event-free survival (EFS) in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population and the activated B-cell (ABC) DLBCL subgroup. Secondary end points included progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and safety. RESULTS:A total of 838 patients were randomly assigned to ibrutinib plus R-CHOP (n = 419) or placebo plus R-CHOP (n = 419). Median age was 62.0 years; 75.9% of evaluable patients had ABC subtype disease, and baseline characteristics were balanced. Ibrutinib plus R-CHOP did not improve EFS in the ITT (hazard ratio [HR], 0.934) or ABC (HR, 0.949) population. A preplanned analysis showed a significant interaction between treatment and age. In patients age younger than 60 years, ibrutinib plus R-CHOP improved EFS (HR, 0.579), PFS (HR, 0.556), and OS (HR, 0.330) and slightly increased serious adverse events (35.7% v 28.6%), but the proportion of patients receiving at least six cycles of R-CHOP was similar between treatment arms (92.9% v 93.0%). In patients age 60 years or older, ibrutinib plus R-CHOP worsened EFS, PFS, and OS, increased serious adverse events (63.4% v 38.2%), and decreased the proportion of patients receiving at least six cycles of R-CHOP (73.7% v 88.8%). CONCLUSION:The study did not meet its primary end point in the ITT or ABC population. However, in patients age younger than 60 years, ibrutinib plus R-CHOP improved EFS, PFS, and OS with manageable safety. In patients age 60 years or older, ibrutinib plus R-CHOP was associated with increased toxicity, leading to compromised R-CHOP administration and worse outcomes. Further investigation is warranted.
Project description:PURPOSE:We have previously shown the prognostic significance of BCL2 expression in the activated B-cell-like diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (ABC-DLBCL) patients treated with cyclophosphamide-Adriamycin-vincristine-prednisone (CHOP) or CHOP-like therapy. However, after the inclusion of rituximab (R) in the CHOP regimen, several conflicting observations about the prognostic value of BCL2 expression have been reported. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN:We evaluated the R-CHOP cohort of 221 DLBCL cases with gene expression profiling data. BCL2 protein (n = 169), mRNA (n = 221) expression, and t(14;18) (n = 144) were correlated with clinical outcome. The CHOP cohort (n = 181) was used for comparative analysis. RESULTS:BCL2 protein expression has significant impact on overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) in DLBCL (OS, P = 0.009; EFS, P = 0.001) and GCB-DLBCL (OS, P = 0.03; EFS, P = 0.002) but not in ABC-DLBCL in the R-CHOP cohort. The survival differences for EFS in GCB-DLBCL were still observed in multivariate analysis. At the mRNA level, this correlation was observed in EFS in DLBCL (P = 0.006), but only a trend was observed in GCB-DLBCL (P = 0.09). The t(14;18) was detected in 34% of GCB-DLBCL but was not associated with significant differences in survival. Gene enrichment analysis identified significant enrichment of the DLBCL "stromal-1" signatures and hypoxia-inducible factor 1 (HIF1-?) signature in BCL2(-)GCB-DLBCL, whereas T(FH) cell signatures were enriched in BCL2(+)GCB-DLBCL. CONCLUSION:The prognostic significance of BCL2 has changed after inclusion of rituximab in the treatment protocol and is observed in the GCB-DLBCL rather than the ABC-DLBCL. Although rituximab has benefited patients in both DLBCL subgroups, the BCL2(+)GCB-DLBCL seems to receive less benefit from this treatment and may require other novel therapeutic intervention.
Project description:This retrospective study aimed to better define the characteristics and outcomes of extranodal stage I diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) in the rituximab era. Patients diagnosed with stage I DLBCL from 2001 to 2015 treated with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone (R-CHOP) or R-CHOP-like regimens with or without radiation (RT) were included. We identified 1955 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL, of whom 341 had stage I and were eligible for this analysis. Extranodal presentation was observed in 224 (66%) patients, whereas 117 (34%) had nodal involvement. The most common extranodal sites were as follows: bone, 21%; stomach, 19%; testis, 9%; intestine, 8%; breast, 8%. Overall, 69% extranodal patients and 68% nodal patients received RT. Median follow-up was 5.5 years (interquartile range, 4.3-8.2). Ten-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival were 77% (95% confidence interval [CI], 67%-83%) and 77% (95% CI, 68%-85%). In the multivariable analyses, extranodal involvement was associated with worse OS (hazard ratio [HR], 3.44; 95% CI, 1.05-11.30) and progression-free survival (PFS; HR, 3.25; 95% CI, 1.08-9.72) compared with nodal involvement. Consolidation RT was associated with better OS (HR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.12-0.49) and PFS (HR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18-0.69) in the extranodal population; however, the benefit was no longer observed in patients that were positron emission tomography (PET) negative at the end of immunochemotherapy. Relapses occurred usually late (median, 37 months), and the most common sites were the lymph nodes (31%) and the central nervous system (27%). Extranodal stage I DLBCL had a worse outcome than nodal stage 1 DLBCL. End of immunochemotherapy PET results may help select extranodal patients for consolidation RT.
Project description:<h4>Background</h4>Despite the use of modern immunochemotherapy regimens, a significant proportion of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients will relapse. We proposed absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio (ALC/AMC ratio) as a new prognostic factor in relapsed or primary refractory DLBCL.<h4>Methods</h4>We retrospectively analyzed 163 patients who have been diagnosed with relapsed or primary refractory DLBCL. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were measured from the time of first relapse. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate ALC/AMC ratio as prognostic factors for OS and PFS.<h4>Results</h4>On univariate and multivariate analysis performed with factors included in the saaIPI, early relapse, prior exposure to rituximab and autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT), the ALC/AMC ratio at the time of first relapse remained an independent predictor of PFS and OS (PFS: P?<?0.001; OS: P?<?0.001). Patients with lower ALC/AMC ratio (<2.0) had lower overall response rate, 1-year PFS and 2-year OS rate compared with those with higher ALC/AMC ratio (?2.0). Moreover, the ALC/AMC ratio can provide additional prognostic information when superimposed on the saaIPI.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Lower ALC/AMC ratio at the time of first relapse is a adverse prognostic factor for OS and PFS in relapsed or primary refractory DLBCL, and leads to the identification of high-risk patients otherwise classified as low/intermediate risk by the saaIPI alone.
Project description:Background:We assessed the surrogacy of objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) for overall survival (OS) in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma through a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Methods:PubMed and EMBASE were searched for phase II/III RCTs till June 2019 investigating anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents. Treatment effect (hazard ratio or odds ratio) on potential surrogates (ORR/DCR/PFS) and OS were collected. At trial level, we assessed the correlation between treatment effect on potential surrogates and OS, weighted by sample size, fixed and random effect models, and calculated the surrogate threshold effect (STE). Sensitivity analyses and leave-one-out cross-validation approach were performed to evaluate the robustness of our findings. Results:We included 8 RCTs (4110 patients; 11 comparisons). We did not identify strong correlations between ORR [coefficient of determination (R 2): 0.09-0.25], DCR (0.41-0.57) and OS. However, we noted a strong correlation between PFS and OS, with R 2 of 0.82 in sample size, 0.75 in fixed effect and 0.72 in random effect model weighting, the robustness of which was further verified by leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Sensitivity analyses with restriction to trials with less than 50% crossover, phase III trials, large trials and first-line trials strengthened the correlation (0.78-0.94). The STE for PFS was 0.78. Conclusions:PFS may be the appropriate surrogate for OS in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma. A future anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trial would need less than 0.78 for PFS of the upper limit of confidence interval to predict an OS benefit.