Magnitude, temporal trends and inequality in global burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:We aimed to assess the magnitude, temporal trends and socioeconomic disparity in the global burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung (TBL) from 1990 to 2017, using data extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD 2017). METHODS:We extracted data from the GBD 2017 study. A series of comparative and descriptive analyses of the disease burden between females and males and countries with different socioeconomic development statuses (Social Demographic Index, SDI). We also analysed the temporal trends of age-standardised disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) of TBL cancer at the global and super-regional level by means of joinpoint regression. Finally, we also calculated Concentration Index to explore trends of between-country inequality in cancer burden from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS:During the past 27 years, the global incidence of TBL cancer cases and death cases has increased by 100% and 82.3% respectively, but the increase number was mainly influenced by population growth and ageing. After adjustment, from 1990 to 2017, the ASDR of TBL has increased by 3% and the age-standardised death rate has decreased by 7%. The global TBL cancer burden fell by 15.3%. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of age-standardised TBL cancer burden for both females and males significantly changed twice between 1990 and 2017, and it varied across countries with different SDI values and was also different between females and males. Age-standardised TBL cancer burden was more concentrated in higher socioeconomic development countries, but the development of healthy inequality showed a downward trend in males while showing an upward trend in females. CONCLUSION:The magnitude and temporal trends of TBL cancer burden varied across countries and sex. This study highlighted the importance of crafting health policy to adapt to local conditions to manage the global burden of TBL cancers.
Project description:AIM:Schizophrenia is a serious health problem worldwide. This systematic analysis aims to quantify the burden of schizophrenia at the global, regional and national levels using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017). METHODS:We collected detailed information on the number of incidence cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardised rate of DALYs (ASDR) during 1990-2017 from GBD 2017. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in the ASIR and in the ASDR were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in the ASIR and ASDR of schizophrenia. RESULTS:Globally there were 1.13 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 1.00 to 1.28) incident schizophrenia cases and 12.66 million (95% UI = 9.48 to 15.56) DALYs due to schizophrenia in 2017. The global ASIR decreased slightly from 1990 to 2017 (EAPC = -0.124, 95% UI = -0.114 to -0.135), while the ASDR was stable. The number of incident cases, DALYs, ASIR and ASDR were higher for males than for females. The incident rate and DALYs rate were highest among those aged 20-29 and 30-54 years, respectively. ASIR and ASDR were highest in East Asia in 2017, at 19.66 (95% UI = 17.72 to 22.00) and 205.23 (95% UI = 153.13 to 253.34), respectively. In 2017, the ASIR was highest in countries with a high-moderate sociodemographic index (SDI) and the ASDR was highest in high-SDI countries. We also found that the EAPC in ASDR was negatively correlated with the ASDR in 1990 (P = 0.001, ? = -0.23). CONCLUSION:The global burden of schizophrenia remains large and continues to increase, thereby increasing the burden on health-care systems. The reported findings should be useful for resource allocation and health services planning for the increasing numbers of patients with schizophrenia in ageing societies.
Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIMS:Cancer has become the second most serious disease threatening human health, followed by cardiovascular diseases. This study aimed to quantitatively estimate the mortality, morbidity, and analyze the trends of 29 cancer groups in 195 countries/regions between 1990 and 2017. METHODS:Detailed information of 29 cancer groups were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2017 and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized death rates (ASDR) of 29 cancer groups were calculated based on gender, age, region, and country. Trend analyses were conducted for major cancer types. RESULTS:In 2017, the global death population caused by cancer reached 9 million, which was nearly twice the number in 1990. The ASDR and ASIR of cancer in males were about 1.5 times those of females. Breast cancer showed the highest mortality rate in females in 2017. Individuals aged over 50 are at high risk of developing cancer and the number of cases and deaths in this age group accounted for more than 80% of all cancers in all age groups. Asia has the heaviest cancer burden due to its large population density. Different cancers in varied countries globally have their own characteristics. The ASDR and ASIR of some major cancers demonstrated changes from 1990 to 2017. CONCLUSIONS:Analyses of these data provided basis for future investigations to the common etiological factors, leading to the occurrence of different cancers, the development of prevention strategies based on local characteristics, socioeconomic and other conditions, and the formulation of more targeted interventions.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The epidemiology of esophageal cancer (EC) can elucidate its causes and risk factors and help develop prevention strategies. We aimed to provide an overview of the burden, trends, and risk factors of EC in China from 1990 to 2017. We also investigated the differences between China, Japan, and South Korea and discussed the possible causes of the disparities. METHODS:We used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 to obtain data on incident cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALY rate of EC in China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2017. Trend analysis was performed using joinpoint analysis. We measured the associations between ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALY rate and the socio-demographic index (SDI) for 1990-2017. We also analyzed the risk factors associated with EC deaths and DALYs. RESULTS:China recorded 234,624 (95% uncertainty intervals: 223,240-246,036) incident cases of and 212,586 (202,673-222,654) deaths from EC in 2017. The ASIR and ASDR declined from 1990 to 2017. Until 2017, the ASIR was 12.23, and ASDR was 11.25 per 100,000 persons. The DALYs were 4,464,980 (4,247,816-4,690,846) with an age-standardized rate of 222.58 per 100,000 persons in 2017. The ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALY rate in China were twice those of Japan and South Korea. These three indicators showed a decreasing trend, whereas SDI increased, in all three countries from 1990 to 2017. Tobacco and alcohol use remained the major risk factors for EC death and DALYs, especially for men in China and women in Japan and South Korea. High body mass index (BMI) and low-fruit diet were the main risk factors for women in China. CONCLUSIONS:The incident cases and deaths of EC in China, Japan, and South Korea increased from 1990 to 2017, whereas the ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALY rate declined. China had the greatest burden of EC among three countries. SDI and aging along with tobacco use, alcohol use, high BMI, and low-fruit diet were the main risk factors of death and DALYs and should be paid more attention.
Project description:Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies.To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013.The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs.In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100?000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100?000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries.Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Data about the global, regional, and country-specific variations in the levels and trends of colorectal cancer are required to understand the impact of this disease and the trends in its burden to help policy makers allocate resources. Here we provide a status report on the incidence, mortality, and disability caused by colorectal cancer in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. METHODS:Vital registration, sample vital registration, verbal autopsy, and cancer registry data were used to generate incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates of colorectal cancer at the global, regional, and national levels. We also determined the association between development levels and colorectal cancer age-standardised DALY rates, and calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. All of the estimates are reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100?000 person-years, with some estimates also presented by sex and 5-year age groups. FINDINGS:In 2017, there were 1·8 million (95% UI 1·8-1·9) incident cases of colorectal cancer globally, with an age-standardised incidence rate of 23·2 (22·7-23·7) per 100?000 person-years that increased by 9·5% (4·5-13·5) between 1990 and 2017. Globally, colorectal cancer accounted for 896?000 (876?300-915?700) deaths in 2017, with an age-standardised death rate of 11·5 (11·3-11·8) per 100?000 person-years, which decreased between 1990 and 2017 (-13·5% [-18·4 to -10·0]). Colorectal cancer was also responsible for 19·0 million (18·5-19·5) DALYs globally in 2017, with an age-standardised rate of 235·7 (229·7-242·0) DALYs per 100?000 person-years, which decreased between 1990 and 2017 (-14·5% [-20·4 to -10·3]). Slovakia, the Netherlands, and New Zealand had the highest age-standardised incidence rates in 2017. Greenland, Hungary, and Slovakia had the highest age-standardised death rates in 2017. Numbers of incident cases and deaths were higher among males than females up to the ages of 80-84 years, with the highest rates observed in the oldest age group (?95 years) for both sexes in 2017. There was a non-linear association between the Socio-demographic Index and the Healthcare Access and Quality Index and age-standardised DALY rates. In 2017, the three largest contributors to DALYs at the global level, for both sexes, were diet low in calcium (20·5% [12·9-28·9]), alcohol use (15·2% [12·1-18·3]), and diet low in milk (14·3% [5·1-24·8]). INTERPRETATION:There is substantial global variation in the burden of colorectal cancer. Although the overall colorectal cancer age-standardised death rate has been decreasing at the global level, the increasing age-standardised incidence rate in most countries poses a major public health challenge across the world. The results of this study could be useful for policy makers to carry out cost-effective interventions and to reduce exposure to modifiable risk factors, particularly in countries with high incidence or increasing burden. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Stomach cancer is a major health problem in many countries. Understanding the current burden of stomach cancer and the differential trends across various locations is essential for formulating effective preventive strategies. We report on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to stomach cancer in 195 countries and territories from 21 regions between 1990 and 2017. METHODS:Estimates from GBD 2017 were used to analyse the incidence, mortality, and DALYs due to stomach cancer at the global, regional, and national levels. The rates were standardised to the GBD world population and reported per 100?000 population as age-standardised incidence rates, age-standardised death rates, and age-standardised DALY rates. All estimates were generated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS:In 2017, more than 1·22 million (95% UI 1·19-1·25) incident cases of stomach cancer occurred worldwide, and nearly 865?000 people (848?000-885?000) died of stomach cancer, contributing to 19·1 million (18·7-19·6) DALYs. The highest age-standardised incidence rates in 2017 were seen in the high-income Asia Pacific (29·5, 28·2-31·0 per 100?000 population) and east Asia (28·6, 27·3-30·0 per 100?000 population) regions, with nearly half of the global incident cases occurring in China. Compared with 1990, in 2017 more than 356?000 more incident cases of stomach cancer were estimated, leading to nearly 96?000 more deaths. Despite the increase in absolute numbers, the worldwide age-standardised rates of stomach cancer (incidence, deaths, and DALYs) have declined since 1990. The drop in the disease burden was associated with improved Socio-demographic Index. Globally, 38·2% (21·1-57·8) of the age-standardised DALYs were attributable to high-sodium diet in both sexes combined, and 24·5% (20·0-28·9) of the age-standardised DALYs were attributable to smoking in males. INTERPRETATION:Our findings provide insight into the changing burden of stomach cancer, which is useful in planning local strategies and monitoring their progress. To this end, specific local strategies should be tailored to each country's risk factor profile. Beyond the current decline in age-standardised incidence and death rates, a decrease in the absolute number of cases and deaths will be possible if the burden in east Asia, where currently almost half of the incident cases and deaths occur, is further reduced. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Project description:Background:Valvular heart disease (VHD) is expected to cause an increase in public-health problems in the coming years, especially in elderly populations. We aim to estimate the incidence, mortality, and burden of VHD, by age, from 1990 to 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Methods:We estimated the incidence, mortality, and burden of VHD based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. All metrics are presented with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The Socio-demographic Index was used to identify whether developmental status correlates with health outcomes. Results:The global incidence of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) decreased by 8.67% between 1990 and 2017, while that of non-rheumatic VHD (NRVHD) increased by 45.10%. There was a 54.00% decrease in age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for RHD, but a small and non-significant decrease (-3.00%) in the ASDR for NRVHD. The global age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate of RHD decreased by 53.52%, while there was a 12.62% reduction in the age-standardized DALY rate of NRVHD. Conclusions:The burden from different VHDs demonstrated a diverse change at a global level between 1990 and 2017. Although RHD burden has an obvious means of mitigation, a substantially high incidence of NRVHD was observed over this time period, especially in the elderly, which may lead to high health care costs and signify the potential for even higher costs in the future.
Project description:BACKGROUND:The aim of this study is to describe the prevalence and mortality of bladder cancer (BCa) using data obtained in the Global Burden of Disease study performed in 2017 (GBD 2017). METHODS:Data on BCa for 2017, including prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), were obtained from GBD 2017 at the global, regional, and national levels. We also analyzed the association of BCa burden with the country development level. RESULTS:There were 2.63 million BCa cases estimated from the GBD 2017 data, with 200,000 persons dying of BCa, resulting in 3.60 million DALYs in 2017. The age-standardized prevalence (ASP) of BCa was 32.91/100,000 persons, and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was 2.57/100,000 persons. The ASP and ASDR of BCa were higher in males than in females, and higher in people older than 60?years. The ASP and ASDR of BCa were higher in Western Europe and Central Europe than in South Asia, Andean Latin America, and Central Latin America, and higher in countries with a higher sociodemographic index (SDI). Correlation analysis identified that the ASP and ASDR of BCa were positively correlated with the country SDI (P?<?0.0001 and ??=?0.68 for ASP, and P?=?0.0048 and ??=?0.20 for ASDR). In addition, 33.72% deaths and 36.80% DALYs caused by BCa could be attributed to smoking globally. CONCLUSION:The prevalence and mortality of BCa were very high in 2017, especially in high-SDI countries. Smoking-cessation strategies should be strengthened to control the burden associated with BCa.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with stroke incidence and mortality. Distribution of stroke risk factors is changing worldwide; evidence on these trends is crucial to the allocation of resources for prevention strategies to tackle major modifiable risk factors with the highest impact on stroke burden. METHODS:We extracted data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. We analysed trends in global and SES-specific age-standardised stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 to 2017. We also estimated the age-standardised attributable risk of stroke mortality associated with common risk factors in low-, low-middle-, upper-middle-, and high-income countries. Further, we explored the effect of age and sex on associations of risk factors with stroke mortality from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS:Despite a growth in crude number of stroke events from 1990 to 2017, there has been an 11.3% decrease in age-standardised stroke incidence rate worldwide (150.5, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 140.3-161.8 per 100,000 in 2017). This has been accompanied by an overall 3.1% increase in age-standardised stroke prevalence rate (1300.6, UI 1229.0-1374.7 per 100,000 in 2017) and a 33.4% decrease in age-standardised stroke mortality rate (80.5, UI 78.9-82.6 per 100,000 in 2017) over the same time period. The rising trends in age-standardised stroke prevalence have been observed only in middle-income countries, despite declining trends in age-standardised stroke incidence and mortality in all income categories since 2005. Further, there has been almost a 34% reduction in stroke death rate (67.8, UI 64.1-71.1 per 100,000 in 2017) attributable to modifiable risk factors, more prominently in wealthier countries. CONCLUSIONS:Almost half of stroke-related deaths are attributable to poor management of modifiable risk factors, and thus potentially preventable. We should appreciate societal barriers in lower-SES groups to design tailored preventive strategies. Despite improvements in general health knowledge, access to healthcare, and preventative strategies, SES is still strongly associated with modifiable risk factors and stroke burden; thus, screening of people from low SES at higher stroke risk is crucial.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Statistical data on the incidence, mortality, and burden of breast cancer and the relevant risk factors are valuable for policy-making. We aimed to estimate breast cancer incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by country, gender, age group, and social-demographic status between 1990 and 2017. METHODS:We extracted breast cancer data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 through 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Data about the number of breast cancer incident cases, deaths, DALYs, and the age-standardized rates were collected. We also estimated the risk factors attributable to breast cancer deaths and DALYs using the comparative risk assessment framework of the GBD study. RESULTS:In 2017, the global incidence of breast cancer increased to 1,960,681 cases. The high social-development index (SDI) quintile included the highest number of breast cancer death cases. Between 2007 and 2017, the ASDR of breast cancer declined globally, especially in high SDI and high middle SDI countries. The related DALYs were 17,708,600 in 2017 with high middle SDI quintile as the highest contributor. Of the deaths and DALYs, alcohol use was the greatest contributor in most GBD regions and other contributors included high body mass index (BMI) and high fasting plasma glucose. CONCLUSION:The increasing global breast cancer burden is mainly observed in lower SDI countries; in higher SDI countries, the breast cancer burden tends to be relieving. Therefore, steps against attributable risk factors should be taken to reduce breast cancer burden in lower SDI countries.