Project description:Claret2009 - Predicting phase III overall survival in colorectal cancer This model is described in the article: Model-based prediction of phase III overall survival in colorectal cancer on the basis of phase II tumor dynamics. Claret L, Girard P, Hoff PM, Van Cutsem E, Zuideveld KP, Jorga K, Fagerberg J, Bruno R. J. Clin. Oncol. 2009 Sep; 27(25): 4103-4108 Abstract: PURPOSE: We developed a drug-disease simulation model to predict antitumor response and overall survival in phase III studies from longitudinal tumor size data in phase II trials. METHODS: We developed a longitudinal exposure-response tumor-growth inhibition (TGI) model of drug effect (and resistance) using phase II data of capecitabine (n = 34) and historical phase III data of fluorouracil (FU; n = 252) in colorectal cancer (CRC); and we developed a parametric survival model that related change in tumor size and patient characteristics to survival time using historical phase III data (n = 245). The models were validated in simulation of antitumor response and survival in an independent phase III study (n = 1,000 replicates) of capecitabine versus FU in CRC. RESULTS: The TGI model provided a good fit of longitudinal tumor size data. A lognormal distribution best described the survival time, and baseline tumor size and change in tumor size from baseline at week 7 were predictors (P < .00001). Predicted change of tumor size and survival time distributions in the phase III study for both capecitabine and FU were consistent with observed values, for example, 431 days (90% prediction interval, 362 to 514 days) versus 401 days observed for survival in the capecitabine arm. A modest survival improvement of 39 days (90% prediction interval, -21 to 110 days) versus 35 days observed was predicted for capecitabine. CONCLUSION: The modeling framework successfully predicted survival in a phase III trial on the basis of capecitabine phase II data in CRC. It is a useful tool to support end-of-phase II decisions and design of phase III studies. This model is hosted on BioModels Database and identified by: MODEL1708310001. To cite BioModels Database, please use: BioModels Database: An enhanced, curated and annotated resource for published quantitative kinetic models. To the extent possible under law, all copyright and related or neighbouring rights to this encoded model have been dedicated to the public domain worldwide. Please refer to CC0 Public Domain Dedication for more information.

Project description:Purpose: Despite advances in radical surgery and chemotherapy delivery, ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecologic malignancy. Most of these patients are treated with platinum-based chemotherapies, but there is no biomarker model to guide their responses to these therapeutic agents. We have developed and independently tested our novel multivariate molecular predictors for forecasting patients' responses to individual drugs on a cohort of 58 ovarian cancer patients. Experimental Design: We adapted and applied the previously-published COXEN algorithm to develop molecular predictors for therapeutic responses of patients' tumors based on expression signatures derived from the NCI-60 in vitro drug activities and genomic expression data. Genome-wide candidate biomarkers were first triaged by examining expression patterns of frozen and formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue samples. We then identify initial drug sensitivity biomarkers for carboplatin and paclitaxel, respectively. These biomarkers were further narrowed by examining concordant expression patterns between cell lines and a historical set of ovarian cancer patients. Multivariate predictors were obtained from the NCI-60 cell lines and refined using historical patient cohorts. To independent validate these molecular predictors, we performed genome-wide profiling on FFPE samples of 58 ovarian cancer patients obtained prior to adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Carboplatin predictor significantly stratified platinum sensitive and resistant patients (p = 0.019) with sensitivity = 93%, specificity = 33%, PPV = 65%, and NPV = 78%. Paclitaxel predictor also significantly stratified patients' responses (p = 0.033) with sensitivity = 96%, specificity = 26%, PPV = 61%, and NPV = 86%. The combination predictor for platinum-taxane combination demonstrated a significant survival difference between the predicted responders and nonresponders with median survival of 12.9 months vs. 8.1 months (p = 0.045). Conclusions: COXEN predictors successfully stratified platinum resistance and taxane response in this retrospective cohort, especially based on their FFPE tumor samples. Accurate prediction of chemotherapeutic response, especially to platinum agents is highly clinically relevant and could alter primary management of ovarian cancer. Gene expression data from 58 stage III-IV ovarian cancer patients treated with Carboplatin and Taxol agents

Project description:Purpose: Despite advances in radical surgery and chemotherapy delivery, ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynecologic malignancy. Most of these patients are treated with platinum-based chemotherapies, but there is no biomarker model to guide their responses to these therapeutic agents. We have developed and independently tested our novel multivariate molecular predictors for forecasting patients' responses to individual drugs on a cohort of 58 ovarian cancer patients. Experimental Design: We adapted and applied the previously-published COXEN algorithm to develop molecular predictors for therapeutic responses of patients' tumors based on expression signatures derived from the NCI-60 in vitro drug activities and genomic expression data. Genome-wide candidate biomarkers were first triaged by examining expression patterns of frozen and formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue samples. We then identify initial drug sensitivity biomarkers for carboplatin and paclitaxel, respectively. These biomarkers were further narrowed by examining concordant expression patterns between cell lines and a historical set of ovarian cancer patients. Multivariate predictors were obtained from the NCI-60 cell lines and refined using historical patient cohorts. To independent validate these molecular predictors, we performed genome-wide profiling on FFPE samples of 58 ovarian cancer patients obtained prior to adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: Carboplatin predictor significantly stratified platinum sensitive and resistant patients (p = 0.019) with sensitivity = 93%, specificity = 33%, PPV = 65%, and NPV = 78%. Paclitaxel predictor also significantly stratified patients' responses (p = 0.033) with sensitivity = 96%, specificity = 26%, PPV = 61%, and NPV = 86%. The combination predictor for platinum-taxane combination demonstrated a significant survival difference between the predicted responders and nonresponders with median survival of 12.9 months vs. 8.1 months (p = 0.045). Conclusions: COXEN predictors successfully stratified platinum resistance and taxane response in this retrospective cohort, especially based on their FFPE tumor samples. Accurate prediction of chemotherapeutic response, especially to platinum agents is highly clinically relevant and could alter primary management of ovarian cancer.

Dataset Information

CIDR: NCI Genome Wide Predictors of Survival in Colorectal Cancer

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