Dataset Information

Potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Influenza is a major year-round cause of respiratory illness in Kenya, particularly in children under 5. Current influenza vaccines result in short-term, strain-specific immunity and were found in a previous study not to be cost-effective in Kenya. However, next-generation vaccines are in development that may have a greater impact and cost-effectiveness profile.

Methods

We expanded a model previously used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in Kenya to include next-generation vaccines by allowing for enhanced vaccine characteristics and multi-annual immunity. We specifically examined vaccinating children under 5 years of age with improved vaccines, evaluating vaccines with combinations of increased vaccine effectiveness, cross-protection between strains (breadth) and duration of immunity. We evaluated cost-effectiveness using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs) for a range of values for the willingness-to-pay (WTP) per DALY averted. Finally, we estimated threshold per-dose vaccine prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective.

Results

Next-generation vaccines can be cost-effective, dependent on the vaccine characteristics and assumed WTP thresholds. Universal vaccines (assumed to provide long-term and broad immunity) are most cost-effective in Kenya across three of four WTP thresholds evaluated, with the lowest median value of ICER per DALY averted ($263, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): $ - 1698, $1061) and the highest median INMBs. At a WTP of $623, universal vaccines are cost-effective at or below a median price of $5.16 per dose (95% CrI: $0.94, $18.57). We also show that the assumed mechanism underlying infection-derived immunity strongly impacts vaccine outcomes.

Conclusions

This evaluation provides evidence for country-level decision makers about future next-generation vaccine introduction, as well as global research funders about the potential market for these vaccines. Next-generation vaccines may offer a cost-effective intervention to reduce influenza burden in low-income countries with year-round seasonality like Kenya.

SUBMITTER: Waterlow NR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10032252 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study.

Waterlow Naomi R NR Radhakrishnan Sreejith S Dawa Jeanette J van Leeuwen Edwin E Procter Simon R SR Lambach Philipp P Bresee Joseph J Mazur Marie M Eggo Rosalind M RM Jit Mark M

BMC medicine 20230322 1

<h4>Background</h4>Influenza is a major year-round cause of respiratory illness in Kenya, particularly in children under 5. Current influenza vaccines result in short-term, strain-specific immunity and were found in a previous study not to be cost-effective in Kenya. However, next-generation vaccines are in development that may have a greater impact and cost-effectiveness profile.<h4>Methods</h4>We expanded a model previously used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines ...[more]

PMID: 36949456

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Project description:BackgroundThere is substantial burden of seasonal influenza in Kenya, which led the government to consider introducing a national influenza vaccination programme. Given the cost implications of a nationwide programme, local economic evaluation data are needed to inform policy on the design and benefits of influenza vaccination. We set out to estimate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya.MethodsWe fitted an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to active surveillance data from patients with influenza from 2010 to 2018. Using a societal perspective, we developed a decision tree cost-effectiveness model and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for three vaccine target groups: children 6-23 months (strategy I), 2-5 years (strategy II) and 6-14 years (strategy III) with either the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (Strategy A) or Northern Hemisphere vaccine (Strategy B) or both (Strategy C: twice yearly vaccination campaigns, or Strategy D: year-round vaccination campaigns). We assessed cost-effectiveness by calculating incremental net monetary benefits (INMB) using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1-51% of the annual gross domestic product per capita ($17-$872).ResultsThe mean number of infections across all ages was 2-15 million per year. When vaccination was well timed to influenza activity, the annual mean ICER per DALY averted for vaccinating children 6-23 months ranged between $749 and $1385 for strategy IA, $442 and $1877 for strategy IB, $678 and $4106 for strategy IC and $1147 and $7933 for strategy ID. For children 2-5 years, it ranged between $945 and $1573 for strategy IIA, $563 and $1869 for strategy IIB, $662 and $4085 for strategy IIC, and $1169 and $7897 for strategy IID. For children 6-14 years, it ranged between $923 and $3116 for strategy IIIA, $1005 and $2223 for strategy IIIB, $883 and $4727 for strategy IIIC and $1467 and $6813 for strategy IIID. Overall, no vaccination strategy was cost-effective at the minimum ($17) and median ($445) WTP thresholds. Vaccinating children 6-23 months once a year had the highest mean INMB value at $872 (WTP threshold upper limit); however, this strategy had very low probability of the highest net benefit.ConclusionVaccinating children 6-23 months once a year was the most favourable vaccination option; however, the strategy is unlikely to be cost-effective given the current WTP thresholds.

Project description:BackgroundInfluenza vaccines are an essential tool for influenza prevention, control and preparedness. However, demand for them and their programmatic suitability globally is significantly influenced by their variable effectiveness against influenza illness annually, limited duration of protection and need for yearly updating and vaccination. As such, the World Health Organization and major funders, such as the United States National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, have strongly encouraged developing influenza vaccines with increased efficacy, breadth and duration of protection. Here, we review the next-generation influenza vaccine pipeline, focusing on products in clinical development, and compare their characteristics to currently approved seasonal influenza vaccines.MethodsTo identify and characterize next-generation influenza vaccine candidates, we conducted a comprehensive literature review, using the CIDRAP Universal Influenza Vaccine Technology Landscape as a primary reference source and extracting additional information from peer-reviewed manuscripts, clinical trial records and other media in the public domain.ResultsOur analysis reveals a robust clinical development pipeline for next-generation influenza vaccines, featuring a diversity of approaches to address existing vaccine challenges and several candidates in advanced stages of development. mRNA vaccines emerged as a predominant platform, as evidenced by the number of candidates focused on improved seasonal protection as well as combination vaccine candidates targeting additional respiratory viruses.ConclusionWhile still early in development, results from universal or broadly protective products are promising and warrant continued investment from funders. As most Phase 3 candidates are mRNA-based and include combination vaccines, it is critical to begin considering how these new products may become integrated into the current global influenza vaccine strain selection and manufacturing ecosystems, and existing immunization programmes.

Dataset Information

Potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study.

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