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An evaluation framework for operational interventions on urban mass public transport during a pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Decision making in a rapidly changing context, such as the development and progression of a pandemic, requires a dynamic assessment of multiple variable and competing factors. Seemingly beneficial courses of action can rapidly fail to deliver a positive outcome as the context changes. In this paper, we present a flexible data-driven agent-based simulation framework that considers multiple outcome criteria to increase opportunities for safe mobility and economic interactions on urban transit networks while reducing the potential for Covid-19 contagion in a dynamic setting. Using a case study of the Victoria line on the London Underground, we model a number of operational interventions with varied demand levels and social distancing constraints including: alterations to train headways, dwell times, signalling schemes, and train paths. Our model demonstrates that substantial performance gains ranging from 12.3-195.7% can be achieved in metro service provision when comparing the best performing operational scheme and headway with those realised on the Victoria line during the pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Singh R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10060931 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An evaluation framework for operational interventions on urban mass public transport during a pandemic.

Singh Ramandeep R Hörcher Daniel D Graham Daniel J DJ

Scientific reports 20230330 1

Decision making in a rapidly changing context, such as the development and progression of a pandemic, requires a dynamic assessment of multiple variable and competing factors. Seemingly beneficial courses of action can rapidly fail to deliver a positive outcome as the context changes. In this paper, we present a flexible data-driven agent-based simulation framework that considers multiple outcome criteria to increase opportunities for safe mobility and economic interactions on urban transit netw ...[more]

PMID: 36997602

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Project description:The corona virus disease pandemic (COVID-19) is one of the recent issues that spread in the world, which disrupted life, impacted the economy, and led to heavy losses, whether for government sectors or private companies. This paper focuses on the Kuwait public transport company KPTC and Kuwait Airways' experience during the pandemic, since they incurred major losses due to the decline of their users. Public transport is a place to catch COVID-19, as it is subjected to the use of a large number of passengers daily within a small closed environment. The causes that led to the spread of the virus among public transport users and develop solutions to limit its spread and preserve public transport pioneer's safety were discussed in the paper. Additionally, the environmental impact resulting from the reduction of public transportation using was also addressed. Data was obtained from the KPTC, Kuwait Airways office, the Ministry of Health (MOH) database, and the Environment Public Authority (EPA) database. A questionnaire was distributed to public transport users to determine the reasons for the decline in its user's number and their aspirations to reconsider their use and ensure their satisfaction. For airplane data, the risk of importation of COVID-19 was calculated. For KPTC data, COVID-19 impact on the emissions generated per passenger-km was computed where the emissions were estimated by MOVES. The survey responses were statically analyzed using the chi-square test on the SPSS program, and they were compared to numerical analysis results. The results showed the impact of COVID-19 on people's willingness to use public transportation which was associated with the increase in the number of buses to implement social distancing has negatively affected the environment. Thus, a comprehensive strategy solution was presented consisting of three basic approaches: providing a healthy, risk-free environment for public transportation users, achieving social distancing at a low cost to offset the losses, and ensuring a healthy environment.

Project description:BackgroundProlonged sitting is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease, Type 2 diabetes, some cancers, musculoskeletal disorders and premature mortality. Workplaces contribute to a large proportion of daily sitting time, particularly among office-based workers. Interventions to reduce workplace sitting therefore represent important public health initiatives. Previous systematic reviews suggest such interventions can be effective but have reported wide variations. Further, there is uncertainty as to whether effectiveness in controlled trials can be replicated when implemented outside the research setting. The aims of this review are to identify factors important for the implementation of workplace sitting interventions and to translate these findings into a useful operational framework to support the future implementation of such interventions.MethodsA qualitative systematic review was conducted. Four health and social science databases were searched for studies set in the workplace, with office-based employees and with the primary aim of reducing workplace sitting. Extracted data were primarily from author descriptions of interventions and their implementation. Inductive thematic analysis and synthesis was undertaken.ResultsForty studies met the inclusion criteria. Nine descriptive themes were identified from which emerged three higher-order analytical themes, which related to the development, implementation and evaluation of workplace sitting interventions. Key findings included: the importance of grounding interventions in theory; utilising participative approaches during intervention development and implementation; and conducting comprehensive process and outcome evaluations. There was a general under-reporting of information relating to the context within which workplace sitting interventions were implemented, such as details of local organisation processes and structures, as well as the wider political and economic landscape, which if present would aid the translation of knowledge into "real-world" settings.ConclusionsThese findings provided the basis for an operational framework, which is a representation of all nine descriptive themes and three higher-order analytical themes, to support workplace sitting intervention development, implementation and evaluation. Once tested and refined, this framework has the potential to be incorporated into a practical toolkit, which could be used by a range of organisations to develop, implement and evaluate their own interventions to reduce workplace sitting time amongst staff.

Project description:BackgroundIn an influenza pandemic, the benefit of vaccines and antiviral medications will be constrained by limitations on supplies and effectiveness. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will therefore be vital in curtailing disease spread. However, the most comprehensive assessments of the literature to date recognize the generally poor quality of evidence on which to base non-pharmaceutical pandemic planning decisions. In light of the need to prepare for a possible pandemic despite concerns about the poor quality of the literature, combining available evidence with expert opinion about the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza may lead to a more informed and widely accepted set of recommendations. We evaluated the evidence base for non-pharmaceutical public health interventions. Then, based on the collective evidence, we identified a set of recommendations for and against interventions that are specific to both the setting in which an intervention may be used and the pandemic phase, and which can be used by policymakers to prepare for a pandemic until scientific evidence can definitively respond to planners' needs.MethodsBuilding on reviews of past pandemics and recent historical inquiries, we evaluated the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions by combining available evidence from the literature with qualitative and quantitative expert opinion. Specifically, we reviewed the recent scientific literature regarding the prevention of human-to-human transmission of pandemic influenza, convened a meeting of experts from multiple disciplines, and elicited expert recommendation about the use of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions in a variety of settings (healthcare facilities; community-based institutions; private households) and pandemic phases (no pandemic; no US pandemic; early localized US pandemic; advanced US pandemic).ResultsThe literature contained a dearth of evidence on the efficacy or effectiveness of most non-pharmaceutical interventions for influenza. In an effort to inform decision-making in the absence of strong scientific evidence, the experts ultimately endorsed hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette, surveillance and case reporting, and rapid viral diagnosis in all settings and during all pandemic phases. They also encouraged patient and provider use of masks and other personal protective equipment as well as voluntary self-isolation of patients during all pandemic phases. Other non-pharmaceutical interventions including mask-use and other personal protective equipment for the general public, school and workplace closures early in an epidemic, and mandatory travel restrictions were rejected as likely to be ineffective, infeasible, or unacceptable to the public.ConclusionThe demand for scientific evidence on non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for influenza is pervasive, and present policy recommendations must rely heavily on expert judgment. In the absence of a definitive science base, our assessment of the evidence identified areas for further investigation as well as non-pharmaceutical public health interventions that experts believe are likely to be beneficial, feasible and widely acceptable in an influenza pandemic.

Project description:BackgroundPlanning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patients requiring urgent life-saving treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), while retaining capacity for other emergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by health care providers and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be well-prepared to cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementing interventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning tool for the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (such as cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affect the capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care.MethodsWe conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March to April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, and a review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information was used to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions on doctors, nurses, beds, and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to a scenario-based case study of 1 intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England, under varying levels of COVID-19 patients.ResultsThe Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospital administrators, policymakers, and other decision-makers to calculate the amount of capacity in terms of beds, staff, and crucial medical equipment obtained by implementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the number of hospitalizations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make the planner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that while field hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention is futile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first.DiscussionThe tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effective response to the pandemic. The unique contribution of the planner is that it allows users to compare the impact of interventions that change some or all inputs.

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An evaluation framework for operational interventions on urban mass public transport during a pandemic.

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An evaluation framework for operational interventions on urban mass public transport during a pandemic.

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