Dataset Information

Cox regression and survival analysis from the tauro-urso-deoxycholic trial in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

ABSTRACT: Recent phase II pilot clinical trials suggested that tauro-urso-deoxycholic acid (TUDCA) might slow functional decline and increase survival in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We performed a multivariate analysis of the original TUDCA cohort to better define the treatment effect and allow comparability with other trials. Linear regression slope analysis showed statistical differences in the decline rate, favoring the active treatment arm (p-value < 0.01; -0.262 for the TUDCA group and -0.388 for the placebo group). Mean survival time, estimated by the Kaplan-Meier analysis, showed a 1-month difference, favoring active treatment (log-rank test p-value = 0.092). Cox regression analysis demonstrated that placebo treatment was associated with a higher risk of death (p-value = 0.055). These data further support the disease-modifying effect of TUDCA monotherapy and raise the question of what could be the additional effect of combining TUDCA with sodium phenylbutyrate.

SUBMITTER: Reggiardo G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10157207 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cox regression and survival analysis from the tauro-urso-deoxycholic trial in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Reggiardo Giorgio G Lo Giudice Maria M Lalli Stefania S Rinaldi Gilberto G Albanese Alberto A

Frontiers in neurology 20230420

Recent phase II pilot clinical trials suggested that tauro-urso-deoxycholic acid (TUDCA) might slow functional decline and increase survival in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We performed a multivariate analysis of the original TUDCA cohort to better define the treatment effect and allow comparability with other trials. Linear regression slope analysis showed statistical differences in the decline rate, favoring the active treatment arm (<i>p</i>-value < 0.01; -0.262 for the ...[more]

PMID: 37153676

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Project description:BackgroundA randomized, placebo-controlled phase III study (AB10015) previously demonstrated that orally administered masitinib (4.5 mg/kg/day) slowed rate of functional decline, with acceptable safety, in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients having an ALS Functional Rating Scale-revised (ALSFRS-R) progression rate from disease onset to baseline of <1.1 points/month. Here we assess long-term overall survival (OS) data of all participants from study AB10015 and test whether a signal in OS is evident in an enriched patient population similar to that prospectively defined for confirmatory study AB19001.MethodsSurvival status of all patients originally randomized in AB10015 was collected from participating investigational sites. Survival analysis (using the multivariate log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards model, with stratification factors as covariates) was performed on the intention-to-treat population and enriched subgroups, which were defined according to initial randomization, baseline ALSFRS-R progression rate and baseline disease severity.ResultsA significant survival benefit of 25 months (p = 0.037) and 47% reduced risk of death (p = 0.025) was observed for patients receiving 4.5 mg/kg/day masitinib (n = 45) versus placebo (n = 62) in an enriched cohort with ⩾2 on each baseline ALSFRS-R individual component score (i.e. prior to any complete loss or severe impairment of functionality) and post-onset ALSFRS-R progression rate <1.1 (i.e. exclusion of very fast progressors) [median OS of 69 versus 44 months, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.53 [95% CI (0.31-0.92)]]. This corresponds to the population enrolled in confirmatory phase III study, AB19001.ConclusionsAnalysis of long-term OS (75 months average follow-up from diagnosis) indicates that oral masitinib (4.5 mg/kg/day) could prolong survival by over 2 years as compared with placebo, provided that treatment starts prior to severe impairment of functionality.This trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT02588677 (28 October 2015).

Project description:Objective: The heterogeneity of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) survival duration, which varies from <1 year to >10 years, challenges clinical decisions and trials. Utilizing data from 801 deceased ALS patients, we: (1) assess the underlying complex relationships among common clinical ALS metrics; (2) identify which clinical ALS metrics are the "best" survival predictors and how their predictive ability changes as a function of disease progression. Methods: Analyses included examination of relationships within the raw data as well as the construction of interactive survival regression and classification models (generalized linear model and random forests model). Dimensionality reduction and feature clustering enabled decomposition of clinical variable contributions. Thirty-eight metrics were utilized, including Medical Research Council (MRC) muscle scores; respiratory function, including forced vital capacity (FVC) and FVC % predicted, oxygen saturation, negative inspiratory force (NIF); the Revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R) and its activities of daily living (ADL) and respiratory sub-scores; body weight; onset type, onset age, gender, and height. Prognostic random forest models confirm the dominance of patient age-related parameters decline in classifying survival at thresholds of 30, 60, 90, and 180 days and 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. Results: Collective prognostic insight derived from the overall investigation includes: multi-dimensionality of ALSFRS-R scores suggests cautious usage for survival forecasting; upper and lower extremities independently degenerate and are autonomous from respiratory decline, with the latter associating with nearer-to-death classifications; height and weight-based metrics are auxiliary predictors for farther-from-death classifications; sex and onset site (limb, bulbar) are not independent survival predictors due to age co-correlation. Conclusion: The dimensionality and fluctuating predictors of ALS survival must be considered when developing predictive models for clinical trial development or in-clinic usage. Additional independent metrics and possible revisions to current metrics, like the ALSFRS-R, are needed to capture the underlying complexity needed for population and personalized forecasting of survival.

Dataset Information

Cox regression and survival analysis from the tauro-urso-deoxycholic trial in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Publications

Cox regression and survival analysis from the tauro-urso-deoxycholic trial in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

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