Quantifying the spatial spillover effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk

ABSTRACT:

Background

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in one place can affect neighboring regions by influencing people’s behavior. However, existing epidemic models for NPIs evaluation rarely consider such spatial spillover effects, which may lead to a biased assessment of policy effects.

Methods

Using the US state-level mobility and policy data from January 6 to August 2, 2020, we develop a quantitative framework that includes both a panel spatial econometric model and an S-SEIR (Spillover-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model to quantify the spatial spillover effects of NPIs on human mobility and COVID-19 transmission.

Results

The spatial spillover effects of NPIs explain

Conclusions

Our study provides a framework for evaluating and c

SUBMITTER: Wang K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10245369 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature