Alarming predictions for obesity and non-communicable diseases in the Middle East.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The present study aimed to model obesity trends and future obesity-related disease for nine countries in the Middle East; in addition, to explore how hypothetical reductions in population obesity levels could ameliorate anticipated disease burdens.

Design

A regression analysis of cross-sectional data v. BMI showed age- and sex-specific BMI trends, which fed into a micro simulation with a million Monte Carlo trials for each country. We also examined two alternative scenarios where population BMI was reduced by 1 % and 5 %.

Setting

Statistical modelling of obesity trends was carried out in nine Middle East countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey).

Subjects

BMI data along with disease incidence, mortality a

SUBMITTER: Kilpi F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10282274 | biostudies-literature | 2014 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature