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Individual-level precision diagnosis for coronavirus disease 2019 related severe outcome: an early study in New York.

ABSTRACT: Because of inadequate information provided by the on-going population level risk analyses for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), this study aimed to evaluate the risk factors and develop an individual-level precision diagnostic method for COVID-19 related severe outcome in New York State (NYS) to facilitate early intervention and predict resource needs for patients with COVID-19. We analyzed COVID-19 related hospital encounter and hospitalization in NYS using Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System hospital discharge dataset. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the risk factors for COVID-19 related mortality. We proposed an individual-level precision diagnostic method by taking into consideration of the different weights and interactions of multiple risk factors. Age was the greatest risk factor for COVID-19 related fatal outcome. By adding other demographic variables, dyspnea or hypoxemia and multiple chronic co-morbid conditions, the model predictive accuracy was improved to 0.85 (95% CI 0.84-0.85). We selected cut-off points for predictors and provided a general recommendation to categorize the levels of risk for COVID-19 related fatal outcome, which can facilitate the individual-level diagnosis and treatment, as well as medical resource prediction. We further provided a use case of our method to evaluate the feasibility of public health policy for monoclonal antibody therapy.

SUBMITTER: Huang CC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10344938 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Individual-level precision diagnosis for coronavirus disease 2019 related severe outcome: an early study in New York.

Huang Chaorui C CC Xu Hong H

Scientific reports 20230713 1

Because of inadequate information provided by the on-going population level risk analyses for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), this study aimed to evaluate the risk factors and develop an individual-level precision diagnostic method for COVID-19 related severe outcome in New York State (NYS) to facilitate early intervention and predict resource needs for patients with COVID-19. We analyzed COVID-19 related hospital encounter and hospitalization in NYS using Statewide Planning and Research Co ...[more]

PMID: 37443363

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Project description:ObjectivesFour peer-reviewed publications have reported results from randomized controlled trials of convalescent plasma for coronavirus disease 2019 infection; none were conducted in the United States nor used standard plasma as a comparator. To determine if administration of convalescent plasma to patients with coronavirus disease 2019 increases antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and improves outcome.DesignDouble-blind randomized controlled trial.SettingHospital in New York.PatientsPatients with polymerase chain reaction documented coronavirus disease 2019 infection.InterventionsPatients were randomized (4:1) to receive 2 U of convalescent plasma versus standard plasma. Antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 were measured in plasma units and in trial recipients.Measurements and main resultsEnrollment was terminated after emergency use authorization was granted for convalescent plasma. Seventy-four patients were randomized. At baseline, mean (sd) Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (23.4 [5.6] and 22.5 [6.6]), percent of patients intubated (19% and 20%), and median (interquartile range) days from symptom onset to randomization of 9 (6-18) and 9 (6-15), were similar in the convalescent plasma versus standard plasma arms, respectively. Convalescent plasma had high neutralizing activity (median [interquartile range] titer 1:526 [1:359-1:786]) and its administration increased antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 by 14.4%, whereas standard plasma administration led to an 8.6% decrease (p = 0.005). No difference was observed for ventilator-free days through 28 days (primary study endpoint): median (interquartile range) of 28 (2-28) versus 28 (0-28; p = 0.86) for the convalescent plasma and standard plasma groups, respectively. A greater than or equal to 2 point improvement in the World Health Organization scale was achieved by 20% of subjects in both arms (p = 0.99). All-cause mortality through 90 days was numerically lower in the convalescent plasma versus standard plasma groups (27% vs 33%; p = 0.63) but did not achieve statistical significance. A key prespecified subgroup analysis of time to death in patients who were intubated at baseline was statistically significant; however, sample size numbers were small.ConclusionsAdministration of convalescent plasma to hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 infection increased antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease 2 but was not associated with improved outcome.

Project description:To determine if early CNS symptoms are associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019.DesignA retrospective, observational case series study design.SettingElectronic health records were reviewed for patients from five healthcare systems across the state of Florida, United States.PatientsA clinical sample (n = 36,615) of patients with confirmed diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 were included. Twelve percent (n = 4,417) of the sample developed severe coronavirus disease 2019, defined as requiring critical care, mechanical ventilation, or diagnosis of acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, or severe inflammatory response syndrome.InterventionsNone.Measurement and main resultsWe reviewed the electronic health record for diagnosis of early CNS symptoms (encephalopathy, headache, ageusia, anosmia, dizziness, acute cerebrovascular disease) between 14 days before the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 and 8 days after the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019, or before the date of severe coronavirus disease 2019 diagnosis, whichever came first. Hierarchal logistic regression models were used to examine the odds of developing severe coronavirus disease 2019 based on diagnosis of early CNS symptoms. Severe coronavirus disease 2019 patients were significantly more likely to have early CNS symptoms (32.8%) compared with nonsevere patients (6.11%; χ2[1] = 3,266.08, p < 0.0001, φ = 0.29). After adjusting for demographic variables and pertinent comorbidities, early CNS symptoms were significantly associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (odds ratio = 3.21). Diagnosis of encephalopathy (odds ratio = 14.38) was associated with greater odds of severe coronavirus disease 2019; whereas diagnosis of anosmia (odds ratio = 0.45), ageusia (odds ratio = 0.46), and headache (odds ratio = 0.63) were associated with reduced odds of severe coronavirus disease 2019.ConclusionsEarly CNS symptoms, and specifically encephalopathy, are differentially associated with risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 and may serve as an early marker for differences in clinical disease course. Therapies for early coronavirus disease 2019 are scarce, and further identification of subgroups at risk may help to advance understanding of the severity trajectories and enable focused treatment.

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Individual-level precision diagnosis for coronavirus disease 2019 related severe outcome: an early study in New York.

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Individual-level precision diagnosis for coronavirus disease 2019 related severe outcome: an early study in New York.

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