Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion.

ABSTRACT: The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is affected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct influence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cr

SUBMITTER: Robertson RD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10382346 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature