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Expecting the unexpected: a review of learning under uncertainty across development.

ABSTRACT: Many of our decisions take place under uncertainty. To successfully navigate the environment, individuals need to estimate the degree of uncertainty and adapt their behaviors accordingly by learning from experiences. However, uncertainty is a broad construct and distinct types of uncertainty may differentially influence our learning. We provide a semi-systematic review to illustrate cognitive and neurobiological processes involved in learning under two types of uncertainty: learning in environments with stochastic outcomes, and with volatile outcomes. We specifically reviewed studies (N = 26 studies) that included an adolescent population, because adolescence is a period in life characterized by heightened exploration and learning, as well as heightened uncertainty due to experiencing many new, often social, environments. Until now, reviews have not comprehensively compared learning under distinct types of uncertainties in this age range. Our main findings show that although the overall developmental patterns were mixed, most studies indicate that learning from stochastic outcomes, as indicated by increased accuracy in performance, improved with age. We also found that adolescents tended to have an advantage compared with adults and children when learning from volatile outcomes. We discuss potential mechanisms explaining these age-related differences and conclude by outlining future research directions.

SUBMITTER: Topel S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10390612 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Expecting the unexpected: a review of learning under uncertainty across development.

Topel Selin S Ma Ili I Sleutels Jan J van Steenbergen Henk H de Bruijn Ellen R A ERA van Duijvenvoorde Anna C K ACK

Cognitive, affective & behavioral neuroscience 20230526 3

Many of our decisions take place under uncertainty. To successfully navigate the environment, individuals need to estimate the degree of uncertainty and adapt their behaviors accordingly by learning from experiences. However, uncertainty is a broad construct and distinct types of uncertainty may differentially influence our learning. We provide a semi-systematic review to illustrate cognitive and neurobiological processes involved in learning under two types of uncertainty: learning in environme ...[more]

PMID: 37237092

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Project description:Experience is known to facilitate our ability to interpret sequences of events and make predictions about the future by extracting temporal regularities in our environments. Here, we ask whether uncertainty in dynamic environments affects our ability to learn predictive structures. We exposed participants to sequences of symbols determined by first-order Markov models and asked them to indicate which symbol they expected to follow each sequence. We introduced uncertainty in this prediction task by manipulating the: (a) probability of symbol co-occurrence, (b) stimulus presentation rate. Further, we manipulated feedback, as it is known to play a key role in resolving uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that increasing the similarity in the probabilities of symbol co-occurrence impaired performance on the prediction task. In contrast, increasing uncertainty in stimulus presentation rate by introducing temporal jitter resulted in participants adopting a strategy closer to probability maximization than matching and improving in the prediction tasks. Next, we show that feedback plays a key role in learning predictive statistics. Trial-by-trial feedback yielded stronger improvement than block feedback or no feedback; that is, participants adopted a strategy closer to probability maximization and showed stronger improvement when trained with trial-by-trial feedback. Further, correlating individual strategy with learning performance showed better performance in structure learning for observers who adopted a strategy closer to maximization. Our results indicate that executive cognitive functions (i.e., selective attention) may account for this individual variability in strategy and structure learning ability. Taken together, our results provide evidence for flexible structure learning; individuals adapt their decision strategy closer to probability maximization, reducing uncertainty in temporal sequences and improving their ability to learn predictive statistics in variable environments.

Project description:Children have a powerful ability to track probabilistic information, but there are also situations in which young learners simply follow what another person says or does at the cost of obtaining rewards. This latter phenomenon, sometimes termed bias to trust in testimony, has primarily been studied in children preschool-age and younger, presumably because reasoning capacities improve with age. Less attention has been paid to situations in which testimony bias lingers-one possibility is that children revert to a testimony bias under conditions of uncertainty. Here, participants (4 to 9 years old) searched for rewards and received testimony that varied in reliability. We find support for testimony bias beyond preschool-age, particularly for uncertain testimony. Children were sensitive to trial-by-trial uncertainty (Experiment 1: N = 102, 59 boys, 43 girls; the sample included nine Hispanic/Latinx, 93 non-Hispanic/Latinx participants, of whom six were Black/African American, seven were Asian American, eight were multiracial, 77 were White, and four indicated "other" or did not respond), and with uncertainty defined as a one-time, unexpected change in the testimony (Experiment 3: N = 129; 68 boys, 61 girls; the sample included 12 Hispanic/Latinx, 117 non-Hispanic/Latinx [10 Black/African American, four Asian American, nine multiracial, 103 White, and three "other"]). However, the impact of the testimony bias decreased with age. These effects were specific to the testimony coming from another person as opposed to resulting from a computer glitch (Experiment 2: N = 89, 52 boys, 37 girls; five Hispanic/Latinx, 80 non-Hispanic/Latinx, of whom one was Black/African American, three were Asian American, 15 were multiracial, 66 were White, and four did not report race). Taken together, these experiments provide evidence of a disproportionate influence of testimony, even in children with more advanced reasoning skills. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

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Expecting the unexpected: a review of learning under uncertainty across development.

Publications

Expecting the unexpected: a review of learning under uncertainty across development.

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