Dataset Information

Investigation on the possibility of dynamic COVID-Zero strategy in China: a population-based transmission model analysis and economic evaluation.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To explore the feasible and cost-effective intervention strategies to achieve the goal of dynamic COVID-Zero in China.

Design

A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model combined economic evaluation was used to generate the number of infections, the time for dynamic COVID-Zero and calculate cost-effectiveness under different intervention strategies. The model simulated the 1 year spread of COVID-19 in mainland China after 100 initial infections were imported.

Interventions

According to close contact tracing degree from 80% to 100%, close contact tracing time from 2 days to 1 day, isolation time from 14 days to 7 days, scope of nucleic acid testing (NAT) from 10% to 100% and NAT frequency from weekly to every day, 720 scenarios were simulated.

Outcome measure

Cumulative number of infections (CI), social COVID-Zero duration (SCD), total cost (TC) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

Results

205 of 720 scenarios could achieve the total COVID-Zero since the first case was reported. The fastest and most cost-effective strategy was Scenario 680, in which all close contacts were traced within 1 day, the isolation time was 14 days and 10% of the national population was randomly checked for NAT every day. In Scenario 680, the CI was 280 (100 initial infections) and the SCD was 13 days. The TC was ¥4126 hundred million and the cost of reducing one infection was ¥47 470. However, when the close contact tracing time was 2 days and the degree of close contact tracing was 80%-90%, the SCD would double to 24-101 days and the TCs increased by ¥16 505 to 37 134 hundred million compared with Scenario 680.

Conclusions

If all close contact was controlled within 1 day, the rapid social COVID-Zero can be achieved effectively and cost-effectively. Therefore, the future prevention and control of emerging respiratory infectious diseases can focus on enhancing the ability of close contact tracing.

SUBMITTER: Wang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10401205 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Investigation on the possibility of dynamic COVID-Zero strategy in China: a population-based transmission model analysis and economic evaluation.

Wang Xuechun X Pei Shaojun S Wang Lianhao L La Bin B Zhao Mingchen M Zhang Xiangyu X Jia Zhongwei Z

BMJ open 20230803 8

<h4>Objective</h4>To explore the feasible and cost-effective intervention strategies to achieve the goal of dynamic COVID-Zero in China.<h4>Design</h4>A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model combined economic evaluation was used to generate the number of infections, the time for dynamic COVID-Zero and calculate cost-effectiveness under different intervention strategies. The model simulated the 1 year spread of COVID-19 in mainland China after 100 initial infections were imported.<h4>Int ...[more]

PMID: 37536961

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundThe sustainability and generalizability of China's dynamic zero-COVID strategy on eliminating SARS-CoV-2 transmission has casted doubt globally, mainly because it has exacted high social and economic cost. This study aimed to estimate the disease burden during the first wave of Omicron in China and compared the cost-effectiveness of implementing a Real-world strategy (adjusted dynamic zero-COVID strategy) with two simulated strategies (routine and stricter dynamic zero-COVID strategy) to inform appropriate strategies for COVID-19 pandemic control.MethodsA dynamic state-transition simulation model was developed to compare the health and cost outcomes between different dynamic zero-COVID strategies. Omicron-related healthcare costs were estimated from the societal perspective. Epidemiological parameter values were derived from data of real-world or generated by model calibration; costs and effectiveness parameter values were informed either by local data or published literature. The primary outcomes were total social cost, disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) and net monetary benefit (NMB). Deterministic sensitivity analyses (DSA) and scenario analyses were performed to assess the model robustness.ResultsThe first wave of Omicron in Shanghai resulted in 47,646 DALYs lost and 415 billion RMB losses. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 173,630 RMB (the GDP per capita of Shanghai in 2021) per DALY saved, the Real-world strategy was considered as the most cost-effective strategy due to its highest NMB (-407 billion). Results from DSA confirmed the robustness of our findings.ConclusionOur finding supported the Real-world strategy taken by the Shanghai Municipal Government between March 1 and May 21, 2022 to control the first wave of Omicron outbreak. Moreover, our results indicated that whether the Stricter dynamic zero-COVID strategy is worth implementing at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak mainly depended on the infection rate of COVID-19 among primary contacts. Our analysis provides important evidence to inform policy makers to make appropriate decisions regarding COVID-19 pandemic management.

Project description:BackgroundThere is substantial burden of seasonal influenza in Kenya, which led the government to consider introducing a national influenza vaccination programme. Given the cost implications of a nationwide programme, local economic evaluation data are needed to inform policy on the design and benefits of influenza vaccination. We set out to estimate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya.MethodsWe fitted an age-stratified dynamic transmission model to active surveillance data from patients with influenza from 2010 to 2018. Using a societal perspective, we developed a decision tree cost-effectiveness model and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for three vaccine target groups: children 6-23 months (strategy I), 2-5 years (strategy II) and 6-14 years (strategy III) with either the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine (Strategy A) or Northern Hemisphere vaccine (Strategy B) or both (Strategy C: twice yearly vaccination campaigns, or Strategy D: year-round vaccination campaigns). We assessed cost-effectiveness by calculating incremental net monetary benefits (INMB) using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 1-51% of the annual gross domestic product per capita ($17-$872).ResultsThe mean number of infections across all ages was 2-15 million per year. When vaccination was well timed to influenza activity, the annual mean ICER per DALY averted for vaccinating children 6-23 months ranged between $749 and $1385 for strategy IA, $442 and $1877 for strategy IB, $678 and $4106 for strategy IC and $1147 and $7933 for strategy ID. For children 2-5 years, it ranged between $945 and $1573 for strategy IIA, $563 and $1869 for strategy IIB, $662 and $4085 for strategy IIC, and $1169 and $7897 for strategy IID. For children 6-14 years, it ranged between $923 and $3116 for strategy IIIA, $1005 and $2223 for strategy IIIB, $883 and $4727 for strategy IIIC and $1467 and $6813 for strategy IIID. Overall, no vaccination strategy was cost-effective at the minimum ($17) and median ($445) WTP thresholds. Vaccinating children 6-23 months once a year had the highest mean INMB value at $872 (WTP threshold upper limit); however, this strategy had very low probability of the highest net benefit.ConclusionVaccinating children 6-23 months once a year was the most favourable vaccination option; however, the strategy is unlikely to be cost-effective given the current WTP thresholds.

Project description:BackgroundIn response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Chinese government implemented the dynamic COVID-zero strategy. We hypothesized that pandemic mitigation measures might have reduced the incidence, mortality rates, and case fatality ratios (CFRs) of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in 2020-2022.MethodWe collected HIV incidence and mortality data from the website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China from January 2015 to December 2022. We compared the observed and predicted HIV values in 2020-2022 with those in 2015-2019 using a two-ratio Z-test.ResultsFrom January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2022, a total of 480,747 HIV incident cases were reported in mainland China, of which 60,906 (per year) and 58,739 (per year) were reported in 2015-2019 (pre-COVID-19 stage) and 2020-2022 (post-COVID-19 stage), respectively. The average yearly HIV incidence decreased by 5.2450% (from 4.4143 to 4.1827 per 100,000 people, p < 0.001) in 2020-2022 compared with that in 2015-2019. However, the average yearly HIV mortality rates and CFRs increased by 14.1076 and 20.4238%, respectively (all p < 0.001), in 2020-2022 compared with those in 2015-2019. During the emergency phase in January 2020 to April 2020, the monthly incidence was significantly lower (23.7158%) than that during the corresponding period in 2015-2019, while the incidence during the routine stage in May 2020-December 2022 increased by 27.4334%, (all p < 0.001). The observed incidence and mortality rates for HIV decreased by 16.55 and 18.1052% in 2020, by 25.1274 and 20.2136% in 2021, and by 39.7921 and 31.7535% in 2022, respectively, compared with the predicted values, (all p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe findings suggest that China's dynamic COVID-zero strategy may have partly disrupted HIV transmission and further slowed down its growth. Without China's dynamic COVID-zero strategy, HIV incidence and deaths in the country would have likely remained high in 2020-2022. There is an urgent need to expand and improve HIV prevention, care, and treatment, as well as surveillance in the future.

Project description:ObjectivesComprehensive cost-effectiveness analyses of introducing varicella and/or herpes zoster vaccination in the Swedish national vaccination programme.DesignCost-effectiveness analyses based on epidemiological results from a specifically developed transmission model.SettingNational vaccination programme in Sweden, over an 85- or 20-year time horizon depending on the vaccination strategy.ParticipantsHypothetical cohorts of people aged 12 months and 65-years at baseline.InterventionsFour alternative vaccination strategies; 1, not to vaccinate; 2, varicella vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at age 12 months and a second dose at age 18 months; 3, herpes zoster vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at 65 years of age; and 4, both vaccine against varicella and herpes zoster with the before-mentioned strategies.Main outcome measuresAccumulated cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) for each strategy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).ResultsIt would be cost-effective to vaccinate against varicella (dominant), but not to vaccinate against herpes zoster (ICER of EUR 200,000), assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of EUR 50,000 per QALY. The incremental analysis between varicella vaccination only and the combined programme results in a cost per gained QALY of almost EUR 1.6 million.ConclusionsThe results from this study are central components for policy-relevant decision-making, and suggest that it was cost-effective to introduce varicella vaccination in Sweden, whereas herpes zoster vaccination with the live attenuated vaccine for the elderly was not cost-effective-the health effects of the latter vaccination cannot be considered reasonable in relation to its costs. Future observational and surveillance studies are needed to make reasonable predictions on how boosting affects the herpes zoster incidence in the population, and thus the cost-effectiveness of a vaccination programme against varicella. Also, the link between herpes zoster and sequelae need to be studied in more detail to include it suitably in health economic evaluations.

Project description:IntroductionEffective implementation of a research Program requires an actionable plan to guide execution. To assess the actionability and success of that plan, both scientific and implementation elements must be taken into account. The aim of this study is to assess the 'Zero Childhood Cancer Personalised Medicine Program' (the Zero Program), an Australian first-ever and most comprehensive personalised medicine programme for children with high-risk or relapsed cancer, in terms of its structure, process and implementational effect.Methods and analysisWe will assess Program delivery mechanisms. The development of the implementation and evaluation strategy will concentrate on the work of the Zero Program as a complex whole. This includes the structure of collaborative links across stakeholder groups involved in Program development and delivery, changes to collaborative relationships over time and the impact of group working on Program outcomes. We are applying a mixed-methods design including: a rapid ethnography (observations of stakeholder interactions and informal conversations), Program professionals' completion of a rapid health implementation proforma and a social network analysis. Formative evaluations of the implementation science effects, applying feedback techniques, for example, Formative Evaluation Feedback Loops and the Zero Program professionals' feedback, will determine where Program tailoring may be needed. A repeat of the social network analysis downstream will examine network changes over time, followed by an expert panel using the expert recommendations for implementing change to assess the integration of implementation strategies into the Program structure. A summative evaluation of the Program will bring the research elements together, leading to comprehensive data triangulation and determining the sustainability and implementational effects of Program delivery.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval for this study has been granted by Hunter New England Research Ethics Committee, New South Wales, Australia (approval ref: 2019/ETH12025). Knowledge translation will be achieved through publications, reports and conference presentations to healthcare professionals, patients, families and researchers.Trial registrationNCT03336931; Pre-results.

Project description:The Xpert MTB/RIF test enables rapid detection of tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin resistance. The World Health Organization recommends Xpert for initial diagnosis in individuals suspected of having multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) or HIV-associated TB, and many countries are moving quickly toward adopting Xpert. As roll-out proceeds, it is essential to understand the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies based on Xpert.We evaluated potential health and economic consequences of implementing Xpert in five southern African countries--Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland--where drug resistance and TB-HIV coinfection are prevalent. Using a calibrated, dynamic mathematical model, we compared the status quo diagnostic algorithm, emphasizing sputum smear, against an algorithm incorporating Xpert for initial diagnosis. Results were projected over 10- and 20-y time periods starting from 2012. Compared to status quo, implementation of Xpert would avert 132,000 (95% CI: 55,000-284,000) TB cases and 182,000 (97,000-302,000) TB deaths in southern Africa over the 10 y following introduction, and would reduce prevalence by 28% (14%-40%) by 2022, with more modest reductions in incidence. Health system costs are projected to increase substantially with Xpert, by US$460 million (294-699 million) over 10 y. Antiretroviral therapy for HIV represents a substantial fraction of these additional costs, because of improved survival in TB/HIV-infected populations through better TB case-finding and treatment. Costs for treating MDR-TB are also expected to rise significantly with Xpert scale-up. Relative to status quo, Xpert has an estimated cost-effectiveness of US$959 (633-1,485) per disability-adjusted life-year averted over 10 y. Across countries, cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from US$792 (482-1,785) in Swaziland to US$1,257 (767-2,276) in Botswana. Assessing outcomes over a 10-y period focuses on the near-term consequences of Xpert adoption, but the cost-effectiveness results are conservative, with cost-effectiveness ratios assessed over a 20-y time horizon approximately 20% lower than the 10-y values.Introduction of Xpert could substantially change TB morbidity and mortality through improved case-finding and treatment, with more limited impact on long-term transmission dynamics. Despite extant uncertainty about TB natural history and intervention impact in southern Africa, adoption of Xpert evidently offers reasonable value for its cost, based on conventional benchmarks for cost-effectiveness. However, the additional financial burden would be substantial, including significant increases in costs for treating HIV and MDR-TB. Given the fundamental influence of HIV on TB dynamics and intervention costs, care should be taken when interpreting the results of this analysis outside of settings with high HIV prevalence.

Dataset Information

Investigation on the possibility of dynamic COVID-Zero strategy in China: a population-based transmission model analysis and economic evaluation.

Objective

Design

Interventions

Outcome measure

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Investigation on the possibility of dynamic COVID-Zero strategy in China: a population-based transmission model analysis and economic evaluation.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets