Dataset Information

Predicting Long-Term Care Service Demands for Cancer Patients: A Machine Learning Approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Long-term care (LTC) service demands among cancer patients are significantly understudied, leading to gaps in healthcare resource allocation and policymaking.

Objective

This study aimed to predict LTC service demands for cancer patients and identify the crucial factors.

Methods

3333 cases of cancers were included. We further developed two specialized prediction models: a Unified Prediction Model (UPM) and a Category-Specific Prediction Model (CSPM). The UPM offered generalized forecasts by treating all services as identical, while the CSPM built individual predictive models for each specific service type. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to find optimal usage cutoff points for determining the usage and non-usage cases.

Results

Service usage differences in lung, liver, brain, and pancreatic cancers were significant. For the UPM, the top 20 performance model cutoff points were adopted, such as through Logistic Regression (LR), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA), and XGBoost (XGB), achieving an AUROC range of 0.707 to 0.728. The CSPM demonstrated performance with an AUROC ranging from 0.777 to 0.837 for the top five most frequently used services. The most critical predictive factors were the types of cancer, patients' age and female caregivers, and specific health needs.

Conclusion

The results of our study provide valuable information for healthcare decisions, resource allocation optimization, and personalized long-term care usage for cancer patients.

SUBMITTER: Chien SC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10526410 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Predicting Long-Term Care Service Demands for Cancer Patients: A Machine Learning Approach.

Chien Shuo-Chen SC Chang Yu-Hung YH Yen Chia-Ming CM Chen Ying-Erh YE Liu Chia-Chun CC Hsiao Yu-Ping YP Yang Ping-Yen PY Lin Hong-Ming HM Lu Xing-Hua XH Wu I-Chien IC Hsu Chih-Cheng CC Chiou Hung-Yi HY Chung Ren-Hua RH

Cancers 20230916 18

<h4>Background</h4>Long-term care (LTC) service demands among cancer patients are significantly understudied, leading to gaps in healthcare resource allocation and policymaking.<h4>Objective</h4>This study aimed to predict LTC service demands for cancer patients and identify the crucial factors.<h4>Methods</h4>3333 cases of cancers were included. We further developed two specialized prediction models: a Unified Prediction Model (UPM) and a Category-Specific Prediction Model (CSPM). The UPM offer ...[more]

PMID: 37760567

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundShort-term fall prediction models that use electronic health records (EHRs) may enable the implementation of dynamic care practices that specifically address changes in individualized fall risk within senior care facilities.ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to implement machine learning (ML) algorithms that use EHR data to predict a 3-month fall risk in residents from a variety of senior care facilities providing different levels of care.MethodsThis retrospective study obtained EHR data (2007-2021) from Juniper Communities' proprietary database of 2785 individuals primarily residing in skilled nursing facilities, independent living facilities, and assisted living facilities across the United States. We assessed the performance of 3 ML-based fall prediction models and the Juniper Communities' fall risk assessment. Additional analyses were conducted to examine how changes in the input features, training data sets, and prediction windows affected the performance of these models.ResultsThe Extreme Gradient Boosting model exhibited the highest performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.846 (95% CI 0.794-0.894), specificity of 0.848, diagnostic odds ratio of 13.40, and sensitivity of 0.706, while achieving the best trade-off in balancing true positive and negative rates. The number of active medications was the most significant feature associated with fall risk, followed by a resident's number of active diseases and several variables associated with vital signs, including diastolic blood pressure and changes in weight and respiratory rates. The combination of vital signs with traditional risk factors as input features achieved higher prediction accuracy than using either group of features alone.ConclusionsThis study shows that the Extreme Gradient Boosting technique can use a large number of features from EHR data to make short-term fall predictions with a better performance than that of conventional fall risk assessments and other ML models. The integration of routinely collected EHR data, particularly vital signs, into fall prediction models may generate more accurate fall risk surveillance than models without vital signs. Our data support the use of ML models for dynamic, cost-effective, and automated fall predictions in different types of senior care facilities.

Project description:ObjectiveThis study aims to construct and validate several machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict long-term mortality and identify risk factors in unselected patients post-cardiac surgery.MethodsThe Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database was used to perform a retrospective administrative database study. Candidate predictors consisted of the demographics, comorbidity, vital signs, laboratory test results, scoring systems, and treatment information on the first day of ICU admission. Four-year mortality was set as the study outcome. We used the ML methods of logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (NNET), naïve bayes (NB), gradient boosting machine (GBM), adapting boosting (Ada), random forest (RF), bagged trees (BT), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB). The prognostic capacity and clinical utility of these ML models were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsOf 7,368 patients in MIMIC-III included in the final cohort, a total of 1,337 (18.15%) patients died during a 4-year follow-up. Among 65 variables extracted from the database, a total of 25 predictors were selected using recursive feature elimination and included in the subsequent analysis. The Ada model performed best among eight models in both discriminatory ability with the highest AUC of 0.801 and goodness of fit (visualized by calibration curve). Moreover, the DCA shows that the net benefit of the RF, Ada, and BT models surpassed that of other ML models for almost all threshold probability values. Additionally, through the Ada technique, we determined that red blood cell distribution width (RDW), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), SAPS II, anion gap (AG), age, urine output, chloride, creatinine, congestive heart failure, and SOFA were the Top 10 predictors in the feature importance rankings.ConclusionsThe Ada model performs best in predicting 4-year mortality after cardiac surgery among the eight ML models, which might have significant application in the development of early warning systems for patients following operations.

Project description:ImportanceHigh myopia is a global concern due to its escalating prevalence and the potential risk of severe visual impairment caused by pathologic myopia. Using artificial intelligence to estimate future visual acuity (VA) could help clinicians to identify and monitor patients with a high risk of vision reduction in advance.ObjectiveTo develop machine learning models to predict VA at 3 and 5 years in patients with high myopia.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective, single-center, cohort study was performed on patients whose best-corrected VA (BCVA) at 3 and 5 years was known. The ophthalmic examinations of these patients were performed between October 2011 and May 2021. Thirty-four variables, including general information, basic ophthalmic information, and categories of myopic maculopathy based on fundus and optical coherence tomography images, were collected from the medical records for analysis.Main outcomes and measuresRegression models were developed to predict BCVA at 3 and 5 years, and a binary classification model was developed to predict the risk of developing visual impairment at 5 years. The performance of models was evaluated by discrimination metrics, calibration belts, and decision curve analysis. The importance of relative variables was assessed by explainable artificial intelligence techniques.ResultsA total of 1616 eyes from 967 patients (mean [SD] age, 58.5 [14.0] years; 678 female [70.1%]) were included in this analysis. Findings showed that support vector machines presented the best prediction of BCVA at 3 years (R2 = 0.682; 95% CI, 0.625-0.733) and random forest at 5 years (R2 = 0.660; 95% CI, 0.604-0.710). To predict the risk of visual impairment at 5 years, logistic regression presented the best performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.870; 95% CI, 0.816-0.912). The baseline BCVA (logMAR odds ratio [OR], 0.298; 95% CI, 0.235-0.378; P < .001), prior myopic macular neovascularization (OR, 3.290; 95% CI, 2.209-4.899; P < .001), age (OR, 1.578; 95% CI, 1.227-2.028; P < .001), and category 4 myopic maculopathy (OR, 4.899; 95% CI, 1.431-16.769; P = .01) were the 4 most important predicting variables and associated with increased risk of visual impairment at 5 years.Conclusions and relevanceStudy results suggest that developing models for accurate prediction of the long-term VA for highly myopic eyes based on clinical and imaging information is feasible. Such models could be used for the clinical assessments of future visual acuity.

Project description:Widely-prescribed prodrug opioids (e.g., hydrocodone) require conversion by liver enzyme CYP-2D6 to exert their analgesic effects. The most commonly prescribed antidepressant, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), inhibits CYP-2D6 activity and therefore may reduce the effectiveness of prodrug opioids. We used a machine learning approach to identify patients prescribed a combination of SSRIs and prodrug opioids postoperatively and to examine the effect of this combination on postoperative pain control. Using EHR data from an academic medical center, we identified patients receiving surgery over a 9-year period. We developed and validated natural language processing (NLP) algorithms to extract depression-related information (diagnosis, SSRI use, symptoms) from structured and unstructured data elements. The primary outcome was the difference between preoperative pain score and postoperative pain at discharge, 3-week and 8-week time points. We developed computational models to predict the increase or decrease in the postoperative pain across the 3 time points by using the patient's EHR data (e.g. medications, vitals, demographics) captured before surgery. We evaluate the generalizability of the model using 10-fold cross-validation method where the holdout test method is repeated 10 times and mean area-under-the-curve (AUC) is considered as evaluation metrics for the prediction performance. We identified 4,306 surgical patients with symptoms of depression. A total of 14.1% were prescribed both an SSRI and a prodrug opioid, 29.4% were prescribed an SSRI and a non-prodrug opioid, 18.6% were prescribed a prodrug opioid but were not on SSRIs, and 37.5% were prescribed a non-prodrug opioid but were not on SSRIs. Our NLP algorithm identified depression with a F1 score of 0.95 against manual annotation of 300 randomly sampled clinical notes. On average, patients receiving prodrug opioids had lower average pain scores (p<0.05), with the exception of the SSRI+ group at 3-weeks postoperative follow-up. However, SSRI+/Prodrug+ had significantly worse pain control at discharge, 3 and 8-week follow-up (p < .01) compared to SSRI+/Prodrug- patients, whereas there was no difference in pain control among the SSRI- patients by prodrug opioid (p>0.05). The machine learning algorithm accurately predicted the increase or decrease of the discharge, 3-week and 8-week follow-up pain scores when compared to the pre-operative pain score using 10-fold cross validation (mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.87, 0.81, and 0.69, respectively). Preoperative pain, surgery type, and opioid tolerance were the strongest predictors of postoperative pain control. We provide the first direct clinical evidence that the known ability of SSRIs to inhibit prodrug opioid effectiveness is associated with worse pain control among depressed patients. Current prescribing patterns indicate that prescribers may not account for this interaction when choosing an opioid. The study results imply that prescribers might instead choose direct acting opioids (e.g. oxycodone or morphine) in depressed patients on SSRIs.

Dataset Information

Predicting Long-Term Care Service Demands for Cancer Patients: A Machine Learning Approach.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Predicting Long-Term Care Service Demands for Cancer Patients: A Machine Learning Approach.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets