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Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion.

ABSTRACT: As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has ushered in a volatile era of viral immune evasion rather than the much-heralded stability of "endemicity" or "herd immunity." At this point, an array of viral strains has rendered essentially all monoclonal antibody therapeutics obsolete and strongly undermined the impact of vaccinal immunity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this work, we demonstrate that antibody escape resulting in evasion of pre-existing immunity is highly evolutionarily favored and likely to cause waves of short-term transmission. In the long-term, invading strains that induce weak cross-immunity against pre-existing strains may co-circulate with those pre-existing strains. This would result in the formation of serotypes that increase disease burden, complicate SARS-CoV-2 control, and raise the potential for increases in viral virulence. Less durable immunity does not drive positive selection as a trait, but such strains may transmit at high levels if they establish. Overall, our results draw attention to the importance of inter-strain cross-immunity as a driver of transmission trends and the importance of early immune evasion data to predict the trajectory of the pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Albright C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10584102 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion.

Albright Catherine C Van Egeren Debra D Thakur Aditya A Chakravarty Arijit A White Laura F LF Stoddard Madison M

PloS one 20231018 10

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has ushered in a volatile era of viral immune evasion rather than the much-heralded stability of "endemicity" or "herd immunity." At this point, an array of viral strains has rendered essentially all monoclonal antibody therapeutics obsolete and strongly undermined the impact of vaccinal immunity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this work, we demonstrate that antibody escape resulting in evasion of pre-existing im ...[more]

PMID: 37851632

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Project description:The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a global public health emergency requiring urgent development of efficacious vaccines. While concentrated research efforts have focused primarily on antibody-based vaccines that neutralize SARS-CoV-2, and several first-generation vaccines have either been approved or received emergency use authorization, it is forecasted that COVID-19 will become an endemic disease requiring updated second-generation vaccines. The SARS-CoV-2 surface spike (S) glycoprotein represents a prime target for vaccine development because antibodies that block viral attachment and entry, i.e., neutralizing antibodies, bind almost exclusively to the receptor-binding domain. Here, we develop computational models for a large subset of S proteins associated with SARS-CoV-2, implemented through coarse-grained elastic network models and normal mode analysis. We then analyze local protein domain dynamics of the S protein systems and their thermal stability to characterize structural and dynamical variability among them. These results are compared against existing experimental data and used to elucidate the impact and mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 S protein mutations and their associated antibody binding behavior. We construct a SARS-CoV-2 antigenic map and offer predictions about the neutralization capabilities of antibody and S mutant combinations based on protein dynamic signatures. We then compare SARS-CoV-2 S protein dynamics to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV S proteins to investigate differing antibody binding and cellular fusion mechanisms that may explain the high transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2. The outbreaks associated with SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 over the last two decades suggest that the threat presented by coronaviruses is ever-changing and long term. Our results provide insights into the dynamics-driven mechanisms of immunogenicity associated with coronavirus S proteins and present a new, to our knowledge, approach to characterize and screen potential mutant candidates for immunogen design, as well as to characterize emerging natural variants that may escape vaccine-induced antibody responses.

Project description:BackgroundWe previously demonstrated that when vaccines prevent infection, the dynamics of mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated sub-populations is such that use of imperfect vaccines markedly decreases risk for vaccinated people, and for the population overall. Risks to vaccinated people accrue disproportionately from contact with unvaccinated people. In the context of the emergence of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 and evolving understanding of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, we updated our analysis to evaluate whether our earlier conclusions remained valid.MethodsWe modified a previously published Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 with two connected sub-populations: vaccinated and unvaccinated, with non-random mixing between groups. Our expanded model incorporates diminished vaccine efficacy for preventing infection with the emergence of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants, waning immunity, the impact of prior immune experience on infectivity, "hybrid" effects of infection in previously vaccinated individuals, and booster vaccination. We evaluated the dynamics of an epidemic within each subgroup and in the overall population over a 10-year time horizon.ResultsEven with vaccine efficacy as low as 20%, and in the presence of waning immunity, the incidence of COVID-19 in the vaccinated subpopulation was lower than that among the unvaccinated population across the full 10-year time horizon. The cumulative risk of infection was 3-4 fold higher among unvaccinated people than among vaccinated people, and unvaccinated people contributed to infection risk among vaccinated individuals at twice the rate that would have been expected based on the frequency of contacts. These findings were robust across a range of assumptions around the rate of waning immunity, the impact of "hybrid immunity", frequency of boosting, and the impact of prior infection on infectivity in unvaccinated people.InterpretationAlthough the emergence of the Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 has diminished the protective effects of vaccination against infection with SARS-CoV-2, updating our earlier model to incorporate loss of immunity, diminished vaccine efficacy and a longer time horizon, does not qualitatively change our earlier conclusions. Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 continues to diminish the risk of infection among vaccinated people and in the population as a whole. By contrast, the risk of infection among vaccinated people accrues disproportionately from contact with unvaccinated people.

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Dataset Information

Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion.

Publications

Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion.

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