Economic uncertainty and population health: insights from emerging markets and developing countries
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER:
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10634310 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:The study aims to shed new lights on the lead-lag relationships between the financial sector (RFSI) and economic growth (GDP) in the midst of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) shocks for BRICS economies. Hence, the bivariate, partial, and wavelet multiple correlations techniques are employed. From the bivariate analysis, we document positive bi-directional causality between the RFSI and economic growth over the sample period. The partial wavelet reveals that GEPU shocks distort the significance and directional comovements between the RFSI and GDP. Moreover, the outcome from the wavelet multiple cross correlations (WMCC) indicates that the RFSI is a first mover at most time scales for the BRICS economies. This is followed by GEPU which either leads or lags for most scales, especially for South Africa. The impact of GEPU on RFSI and GDP is worst for South Africa in about four cases in the medium-, and long-terms. This signifies that South Africa's financial markets and economic growth are vulnerable to GEPU. However, the impetus for GEPU to drive the comovements between the financial sector and economic activity was less pronounced in the pre-COVID analysis conducted with the WMCC. The study supports both the supply-leading and demand-following hypotheses. Our findings also underscore the need for policymakers, investors and academics alike to incessantly observe the dynamics between finance and growth across time and periodicity while considering adverse shocks from global economic policy uncertainty in tandem.
| S-EPMC8584713 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This research examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices on Pakistan's stock market volatility. Particularly, we examine the impact of the economic policy uncertainty index for Pakistan and bilateral global trading partner countries, the US, China, and the UK. We employ the GARCH-MIDAS model and combination forecast approach to evaluate the performance of economic uncertainty indices. The empirical findings show that the US economic policy uncertainty index is a more powerful predictor of Pakistan stock market volatility. In addition, the EPU index for the UK also provides valuable information for equity market volatility prediction. Surprisingly, Pakistan and China EPU indices have no significant predictive information for volatility forecasting during the sample period. Lastly, we find evidence of all uncertainty indices during economic upheaval from the COVID-19 pandemic. We obtained identical results even during the Covid-19. Our findings are robust in various evaluation methods, like MCS tests and other forecasting windows. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10690-023-09410-1.
| S-EPMC10205557 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We study emerging markets' 1980s lost growth decade, triggered by the massive reversal of the snowball effect in the US during 1974-1984, finding that higher flow costs of servicing debt overhang explain the dramatic decline in growth rates of exposed emerging markets. We also show how lowering the US cost of servicing its public debt has been associated with higher US, Japan, and Western Europe real output growth rates during the post WWII recovery decades, 1946-1956, and validate that fiscal adjustments of large countries have strong growth and volatility spillovers effects on exposed emerging markets and developing countries.
| S-EPMC9115430 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Based on annual data for 31 emerging and developing economies in the period 2000–2020, this paper explores the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on episodes of extreme international capital inflows. Following previous researches, we identify episodes of surges and stops. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty can significantly increase the probability of surges and decrease the probability of stops in emerging and developing economies. The heterogeneity tests show that these effects vary with economic growth, financial development, the degree of economic globalization and global liquidity. Above effects are significant in the groups with higher economic growth, higher financial development, higher economic globalization and higher global liquidity. Further analyses show that as global economic policy uncertainty rises, its impact on surges and stops gradually declines. In addition, global economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on the surge in advanced economies, which could confirm the above conclusion to a certain extent.
| S-EPMC9518921 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This paper studies the US and global economic fundamentals that exacerbate emerging stock markets volatility and can be considered as systemic risk factors increasing financial stability vulnerabilities. We apply the bivariate HEAVY system of daily and intra-daily volatility equations enriched with powers, leverage, and macro-effects that improve its forecasting accuracy significantly. Our macro-augmented asymmetric power HEAVY model estimates the inflammatory effect of US uncertainty and infectious disease news impact on equities alongside global credit and commodity factors on emerging stock index realized volatility. Our study further demonstrates the power of the economic uncertainty channel, showing that higher US policy uncertainty levels increase the leverage effects and the impact from the common macro-financial proxies on emerging markets' financial volatility. Lastly, we provide evidence on the crucial role of both financial and health crisis events (the 2008 global financial turmoil and the recent Covid-19 pandemic) in raising markets' turbulence and amplifying the volatility macro-drivers impact, as well.Supplementary informationThe online version supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10479-021-04042-y.
| S-EPMC8059431 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study examines the impact of corporate governance and economic policy uncertainty on financial performance in non-financial firms in three emerging Asian economies: Pakistan, China, and Malaysia. The study analyzed 400 non-financial firms listed on these countries' stock markets for ten years (2012-2021). Data on corporate governance, financial performance, and CSR scores were obtained from DataStream. The study used regression analysis and the generalized method of moments (GMM) for its robustness analysis. Our findings show that all attributes of corporate governance practices have a significant positive impact on return on assets, except for the existence of an audit board committee for all selected economies. Moreover, corporate governance practices have a significant positive relationship with return on equity. However, in the case of earnings per share (EPS), all attributes have a significant positive relationship except board size with earnings per share. Economic policy uncertainty significantly moderates corporate governance practices and financial performance of organizations belonging to Asian economies. This study advocated the implications for the government and policymakers to improve corporate governance practices, especially during periods of high economic uncertainty.
| S-EPMC11620350 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Differing from previous studies ignoring the nonlinear features, this study employs both the linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the complex causal relationship between health care expenditure and economic growth among 15 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and 5 major developing countries. Some interesting findings can be obtained as follows: (1) For Australia, Austria, and UK, linear and nonlinear Granger causality does not exist between them. A unidirectional linear or nonlinear causality running from economic growth to health care expenditure can be found for Ireland, Korea, Portugal, and India. For these seven countries, health or fiscal policy related to health spending will not have an impact on economic growth; (2) For Belgium, Norway, and Mexico, only a unidirectional linear causality runs from health care expenditure to economic growth, while bidirectional linear causality can be found for Canada, Finland, Iceland, New Zealand, Spain, Brazil, and South Africa. Especially for the US, China, and Japan, a unidirectional nonlinear causality exists from health spending to economic growth. To improve the quality of national health, life quality and happiness, these 13 countries should actively look to optimise policy related to health care expenditure, such as by enhancing the efficiency of health costs to promote sustainable economic development.
| S-EPMC6163394 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Uncertainty is a feature of healthcare practice. In recognition of this, multiple health profession governing bodies identify uncertainty tolerance as a healthcare graduate attribute and evaluate uncertainty tolerance within new graduate cohorts. While it is clear that uncertainty tolerance development for healthcare learners is valued, gaps remain for practically addressing this within healthcare curricula. Guiding frameworks for practical approaches supporting uncertainty tolerance development in healthcare learners remains sparse, particularly outside of medicine and in certain geographical locations. As uncertainty tolerance is increasingly recognised as being, at least in part, state-based (e.g. contextually changeable)- a broader understanding of teaching practices supporting uncertainty tolerance development in diverse health professions is warranted. This study explored educators' teaching practices for purposefully stimulating learners' uncertainty tolerance. Semi-structured interviews investigated how academics at a single institution, from diverse fields and health professions, stimulate uncertainty across multiple learning contexts. Framework analysis identified three themes for stimulating uncertainty: Purposeful questioning, Forecasting uncertainty, and Placing learners in unfamiliar environments, with characterisation of these themes (and related subthemes) also described. Many of the identified themes align with aspects of existing learning theories suggesting that curricular frameworks supporting learner uncertainty tolerance development may be informed by theories beyond the boundaries of health professions education research.
| S-EPMC11925988 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A long literature in demography has debated the importance of place for health, especially children's health. In this study, we assess whether the importance of dense settlement for infant mortality and child height is moderated by exposure to local sanitation behavior. Is open defecation (i.e., without a toilet or latrine) worse for infant mortality and child height where population density is greater? Is poor sanitation is an important mechanism by which population density influences child health outcomes? We present two complementary analyses using newly assembled data sets, which represent two points in a trade-off between external and internal validity. First, we concentrate on external validity by studying infant mortality and child height in a large, international child-level data set of 172 Demographic and Health Surveys, matched to census population density data for 1,800 subnational regions. Second, we concentrate on internal validity by studying child height in Bangladeshi districts, using a new data set constructed with GIS techniques that allows us to control for fixed effects at a high level of geographic resolution. We find a statistically robust and quantitatively comparable interaction between sanitation and population density with both approaches: open defecation externalities are more important for child health outcomes where people live more closely together.
| S-EPMC5306240 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Based on the literature, it is commonly understood that stock prices (SP) are influenced by economic policy uncertainty (PU), with a rise in PU typically having a negative impact on SP. However, the relationship between PU and SP may not always be linear due to the varying risk preferences of individuals. Risk preference theory posits that individuals respond differently to different levels of risk. Therefore, this study aims to investigate whether PU determines SP asymmetrically (i.e., in a non-linear manner) by considering risk preferences and addressing a gap in the literature. To answer this question, the study employs a panel threshold approach to examine the effect of PU on SP in the Group of Seven (G7) countries, namely Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US. In contrast to previous research, this study finds evidence of an asymmetric effect of PU on SP in the G7 countries. Specifically, the panel threshold results reveal that the impact of increased PU on SP is positive up to a certain level (Threshold1), beyond which it becomes negative (Threshold2). These findings are in line with information asymmetry hypothesis, prospect theory, behavioural finance hypothesis, and market liquidity hypothesis and shed light on the asymmetric behaviour of SP in response to varying levels of PU. The implications of these findings are significant for understanding how to manage risks effectively in the financial markets.
| S-EPMC10361491 | biostudies-literature