Dataset Information
Incidence and individual risk prediction of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular disease in the general population: a multivariable prediction model development and validation study.
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ABSTRACT: Aims
Previous studies suggest relatively increased cardiovascular risk after COVID-19 infection. This study assessed incidence and explored individual risk and timing of cardiovascular disease occurring post-COVID-19 in a large primary care database.Methods and results
Data were extracted from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Incidence rates within 180 days post-infection were estimated for arterial or venous events, inflammatory heart disease, and new-onset atrial fibrillation or heart failure. Next, multivariable logistic regression models were developed on 220 751 adults with COVID-19 infection before 1 December 2020 using age, sex and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. All models were externally validated in (i) 138 034 vaccinated and (ii) 503 404 unvaccinated adults with a first COVID-19 infection after 1 December 2020. Discriminative performance and calibration were evaluated with internal and external validation. Increased incidence rates were observed up to 60 days after COVID-19 infection for venous and arterial cardiovascular events and new-onset atrial fibrillation, but not for inflammatory heart disease or heart failure, with the highest rate for venous events (13 per 1000 person-years). The best prediction models had c-statistics of 0.90 or higher. However, <5% of adults had a predicted 180-day outcome-specific risk larger than 1%. These rare outcomes complicated calibration.Conclusion
Risks of arterial and venous cardiovascular events and new-onset atrial fibrillation are increased within the first 60 days after COVID-19 infection in the general population. Models' c-statistics suggest high discrimination, but because of the very low absolute risks, they are insufficient to inform individual risk management.
SUBMITTER: la Roi-Teeuw HM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10690016 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Incidence and individual risk prediction of post-COVID-19 cardiovascular disease in the general population: a multivariable prediction model development and validation study.
European heart journal open 20230928 6
<h4>Aims</h4>Previous studies suggest relatively increased cardiovascular risk after COVID-19 infection. This study assessed incidence and explored individual risk and timing of cardiovascular disease occurring post-COVID-19 in a large primary care database.<h4>Methods and results</h4>Data were extracted from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Incidence rates within 180 days post-infection were estimated for arterial or venous events, inflammatory heart disease, and new-onset atrial f ...[more]
