Project description:African swine fever virus (ASFV), a large and complex DNA-virus circulating between soft ticks and indigenous suids in sub-Saharan Africa, has made its way into swine populations from Europe to Asia. This virus, causing a severe haemorrhagic disease (African swine fever) with very high lethality rates in wild boar and domestic pigs, has demonstrated a remarkably high genetic stability for over 10 years. Consequently, analyses into virus evolution and molecular epidemiology often struggled to provide the genetic basis to trace outbreaks while few resources have been dedicated to genomic surveillance on whole-genome level. During its recent incursion into Germany in 2020, ASFV has unexpectedly diverged into five clearly distinguishable linages with at least ten different variants characterized by high-impact mutations never identified before. Noticeably, all new variants share a frameshift mutation in the 3' end of the DNA polymerase PolX gene O174L, suggesting a causative role as possible mutator gene. Although epidemiological modelling supported the influence of increased mutation rates, it remains unknown how fast virus evolution might progress under these circumstances. Moreover, a tailored Sanger sequencing approach allowed us, for the first time, to trace variants with genomic epidemiology to regional clusters. In conclusion, our findings suggest that this new factor has the potential to dramatically influence the course of the ASFV pandemic with unknown outcome. Therefore, our work highlights the importance of genomic surveillance of ASFV on whole-genome level, the need for high-quality sequences and calls for a closer monitoring of future phenotypic changes of ASFV.
Project description:Sea-level rise will radically redefine the coastline of the 21st century. For many coastal regions, projections of global sea-level rise by the year 2100 (e.g., 0.5-2 meters) are comparable in magnitude to today's extreme but short-lived increases in water level due to storms. Thus, the 21st century will see significant changes to coastal flooding regimes (where present-day, extreme-but-rare events become common), which poses a major risk to the safety and sustainability of coastal communities worldwide. So far, estimates of future coastal flooding frequency focus on endpoint scenarios, such as the increase in flooding by 2050 or 2100. Here, we investigate the continuous shift in coastal flooding regimes by quantifying continuous rates of increase in the occurrence of extreme water-level events due to sea-level rise. We find that the odds of exceeding critical water-level thresholds increases exponentially with sea-level rise, meaning that fixed amounts of sea-level rise of only ~1-10 cm in areas with a narrow range of present-day extreme water levels can double the odds of flooding. Combining these growth rates with established sea-level rise projections, we find that the odds of extreme flooding double approximately every 5 years into the future. Further, we find that the present-day 50-year extreme water level (i.e., 2% annual chance of exceedance, based on historical records) will be exceeded annually before 2050 for most (i.e., 70%) of the coastal regions in the United States. Looking even farther into the future, the present-day 50-year extreme water level will be exceeded almost every day during peak tide (i.e., daily mean higher high water) before the end of the 21st century for 90% of the U.S. coast. Our findings underscore the need for immediate planning and adaptation to mitigate the societal impacts of future flooding.
Project description:Although tsunamis are dispersive water waves, hazard maps for earthquake-generated tsunamis neglect dispersive effects because the spatial dimensions of tsunamis are much greater than the water depth, and dispersive effects are generally small. Furthermore, calculations that include non-dispersive effects tend to predict higher tsunamis than ones that include dispersive effects. Although non-dispersive models may overestimate the tsunami height, this conservative approach is acceptable in disaster management, where the goal is to save lives and protect property. However, we demonstrate that offshore frequency dispersion amplifies tsunamis caused by outer-rise earthquakes, which displace the ocean bottom downward in a narrow area, generating a dispersive short-wavelength and pulling-dominant (water withdrawn) tsunami. We compared observational evidence and calculations of tsunami for a 1933 Mw 8.3 outer-rise earthquake along the Japan Trench. Dispersive (Boussinesq) calculations predicted significant frequency dispersion in the 1933 tsunami. The dispersive tsunami deformation offshore produced tsunami inundation heights that were about 10% larger than those predicted by non-dispersive (long-wave) calculations. The dispersive tsunami calculations simulated the observed tsunami inundation heights better than did the non-dispersive tsunami calculations. Contrary to conventional practice, we conclude that dispersive calculations are essential when preparing deterministic hazard maps for outer-rise tsunamis.
Project description:A puzzle of language is how speakers come to use the same words for particular meanings, given that there are often many competing alternatives (e.g., "sofa," "couch," "settee"), and there is seldom a necessary connection between a word and its meaning. The well-known process of random drift-roughly corresponding in this context to "say what you hear"-can cause the frequencies of alternative words to fluctuate over time, and it is even possible for one of the words to replace all others, without any form of selection being involved. However, is drift alone an adequate explanation of a shared vocabulary? Darwin thought not. Here, we apply models of neutral drift, directional selection, and positive frequency-dependent selection to explain over 417,000 word-use choices for 418 meanings in two natural populations of speakers. We find that neutral drift does not in general explain word use. Instead, some form of selection governs word choice in over 91% of the meanings we studied. In cases where one word dominates all others for a particular meaning-such as is typical of the words in the core lexicon of a language-word choice is guided by positive frequency-dependent selection-a bias that makes speakers disproportionately likely to use the words that most others use. This bias grants an increasing advantage to the common form as it becomes more popular and provides a mechanism to explain how a shared vocabulary can spontaneously self-organize and then be maintained for centuries or even millennia, despite new words continually entering the lexicon.
Project description:Sea-level rise, subsidence, and reduced fluvial sediment supply are causing river deltas to drown worldwide, affecting ecosystems and billions of people. Abrupt changes in river course, called avulsions, naturally nourish sinking land with sediment; however, they also create catastrophic flood hazards. Existing observations and models conflict on whether the occurrence of avulsions will change due to relative sea-level rise, hampering the ability to forecast delta response to global climate change. Here, we combined theory, numerical modeling, and field observations to develop a mechanistic framework to predict avulsion frequency on deltas with multiple self-formed lobes that scale with backwater hydrodynamics. Results show that avulsion frequency is controlled by the competition between relative sea-level rise and sediment supply that drives lobe progradation. We find that most large deltas are experiencing sufficiently low progradation rates such that relative sea-level rise enhances aggradation rates-accelerating avulsion frequency and associated hazards compared to preindustrial conditions. Some deltas may face even greater risk; if relative sea-level rise significantly outpaces sediment supply, then avulsion frequency is maximized, delta plains drown, and avulsion locations shift inland, posing new hazards to upstream communities. Results indicate that managed deltas can support more frequent engineered avulsions to recover sinking land; however, there is a threshold beyond which coastal land will be lost, and mitigation efforts should shift upstream.
Project description:Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.
Project description:Coccidioidomycosis (CM) is a fungal infection endemic in the southwestern United States (US). In California, CM incidence increased more than 213% (from 6.0/100,000 (2014) to 18.8/100,000 (2017)) and continues to increase as rates in the first half of 2018 are double that of 2017 during the same period. This cost-of-illness study provides essential information to be used in health planning and funding as CM infections continue to surge. We used a "bottom-up" approach to determine lifetime costs of 2017 reported incident CM cases in California. We defined CM natural history and used a societal approach to determine direct and discounted indirect costs using literature, national datasets, and expert interviews. The total lifetime cost burden of CM cases reported in 2017 in California is just under $700 million US dollars, with $429 million in direct costs and $271 million in indirect costs. Per person direct costs were highest for disseminated disease ($1,023,730), while per person direct costs were lowest for uncomplicated CM pneumonia ($22,039). Cost burden varied by county. This is the first study to estimate total costs of CM, demonstrating its huge cost burden for California.
Project description:The incidence of coccidioidomycosis, also known as Valley Fever, is increasing in the Southwestern United States and Mexico. Despite considerable efforts, a vaccine to protect humans from this disease is not forthcoming. The aim of this project was to isolate and phylogenetically compare bacterial species that could serve as biocontrol candidates to suppress the growth of Coccidioides immitis, the causative agent of coccidioidomycosis, in eroded soils or in areas close to human settlements that are being developed. Soil erosion in Coccidioides endemic areas is leading to substantial emissions of fugitive dust that can contain arthroconidia of the pathogen and thus it is becoming a health hazard. Natural microbial antagonists to C. immitis, that are adapted to arid desert soils could be used for biocontrol attempts to suppress the growth of the pathogen in situ to reduce the risk for humans and animals of contracting coccidioidomycosis. Bacteria were isolated from soil samples obtained near Bakersfield, California. Subsequently, pairwise challenge assays with bacterial pure cultures were initially performed against Uncinocarpus reesii, a non-pathogenic relative of C. immitis on media plates. Bacterial isolates that exhibited strongly antifungal properties were then re-challenged against C. immitis. Strongly anti-C. immitis bacterial isolates related to Bacillus subtilis and Streptomyces spp. were isolated, and their antifungal spectrum was investigated using a selection of environmental fungi.